For the past past five years, the Dow 30 has filled every gap … except two.
The ‘election’ gap of 2016 and the ‘election’ gap of 2020.
Looking at the technical condition of the Dow, it’s at an extreme.
Testing the underside of a trend break while at the same time in a reversal (Wyckoff up-thrust) condition.
A ‘reversal condition’ does not guarantee the market heads immediately lower.
It points out the probabilities that some type retrace may happen before a move higher.
In the current situation, a significant retrace would put the Dow well below resistance; adding to the bearish assessment.
Pulling out to the larger time-frame, the weekly chart puts the current pre-market moves (as of 8:51 a.m. EST), DIA up 0.51%, in perspective.
The market may oscillate attempting to move higher.
At least three conditions are working against such a move:
Underside trend line test
Up-thrust (reversal) condition
Lower gap area yet to be filled.
We’re short the Dow via DXD (not advice, not a recommendation) with hard stop, currently set at DXD: 13.13
Charts by StockCharts