World Chaos, Continues
The long-time reasoning behind this site’s ‘short only‘ trading plan, is becoming abundantly clear.
For years, there have been no ‘long’ trades on anything except leveraged inverse funds.
The premise? A ‘disconnect’ can happen at any time.
At this point, we’re getting to see those potential disconnects in real-time on a near continuous basis.
The past week bled-off the massive put leveraging; thus, setting the market up for (potential) downside reversal.
Getting Back To ‘Normal’
Those who bought the dip in Pavlovian fashion, may be thinking at some point, we’ll get back to ‘normal’.
What’s happening now, Is The Normal.
This is how it’s going to be on a go-forward basis.
Conflict, shortages, supply chaos, weather weaponry, nuclear saber rattling, bank runs are now, all normal.
With that, let’s look at last week’s markets and the set-up for the week ahead.
The SOXX, Rebounds
The last update discussed being short the semiconductors via inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).
The stop was hit, and that position (SOXS-22-02) has been closed out with a gain of about 6.2%.
Note how in the daily chart below, price action came right up to the stop level shown previously, then penetrated that level ever so slightly.
The ‘market’ knows where you are.
Being (stopped) out lets one look for a better opportunity.
Biotech (SPBIO), The Next Set-Up:
Turns out that biotech, SPBIO, may be at a low-risk juncture for a short via leveraged inverse fund LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
Yesterday’s post highlighted some of the reasons for a biotech reversal.
The analysis below, builds on that reversal potential.
The weekly chart of SPBIO, has a channel and Fibonacci time correlation(s).
The next chart zooms-in on a possible target for a move lower.
Leveraged Inverse, LABD
Another reason to think SPBIO, is ready to continue downward, can be seen on the 4-Hour chart of LABD.
The prior report had daily range narrowing.
Getting closer into the action, we see the 4-Hour range narrowing as well.
In addition, down-thrust energy (Force Index) for Friday’s move appears to be exhausted.
Early or late? If you’re trading professionally, that decision must be made ahead of time.
Some traders like to wait for ‘confirmation’ of a move and there’s nothing wrong with that.
For this author however, waiting for confirmation means I’m late. I’m behind the curve and ‘chasing’ the market.
With that said, LABD was entered towards the end of the session on Friday at 41.05 (not advice, not a recommendation).
We’ll find out soon enough, if Monday’s open will be in-the-green.
Even as this post is being created, world news continues to pour in … this time, from North Korea.
Anything can happen in the coming week. The markets could somehow ‘shake-off’ all of the news and move higher.
However, probability suggests market continuation to the downside.
At this juncture, we’re about six hours before the Sunday futures open.
Charts by StockCharts
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279