Monthly Archives: October 2021

Random Notes

October 31, 2021 By in Prechter, Random Notes, Stew Peters, Usual Suspects

The Usual Suspects For The Week

No. 1

Bye, Bye, Bullpen

It looks like the word ‘bullpen‘ is inappropriate … to someone at least.

Just when you think it couldn’t get any more stupid … it all goes to the next level.

Jerimiah Babe may have the right attitude.

With so many unprepared and focused on the wrong things (like the name of a baseball warm-up area), when the bottom drops out, there’re going to be once in a lifetime investment opportunities.

No. 2

Gold To Soar … Yet Again

Looks like the boys (and girls) at Kitco are back at it again. Gold is going up for sure this time … honest.

At time stamp 15:08, the female interviewer really puts the screws to her guest.

She does not believe a word he’s saying … so, there’s that.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the confiscators may be gearing up for another 1930s style Executive Order.

It probably won’t matter either way.

If you have to show your ‘papers’ to sell gold at the local bullion dealer, what’s the point of owning it?

No. 3

Escape From New York

Come this Monday, we’re going to see what happens when approximately 25% of a major city’s police, fire and healthcare employees don’t show up for work.

Time to take notes.

No. 4

Drinking Beer Outside The Liquor Store

Looks likes it’s just a normal thing if you’re in the Ukraine (time stamp 15:08)

No. 5

In a Knife Fight … No Rules !!!

There are no rules anymore. Bullet item No. 6, below shows the confiscation plans are moving forward.

As a caveat, the financial services industry. i.e. ‘wealth management’, is operating with a paradigm that no longer exists.

One of the objectives of this site, is to offer an alternative to the group-think of wealth managers.

Certification presents itself as an authority figure … just like Fox News presents itself as the alternative.

In fact, those in control own both sides of the narrative.

Does anyone really think FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) is going to allow a wealth manager to make his clients overtly wealthy?

Even if that manager knew what to do, he’s hamstrung by regulations like ‘Fiduciary Responsibility‘; effectively guaranteeing the person with the least amount of knowledge (i.e., the client) is in control.

No. 6

Confiscate The IRA/401K

A topic that has been discussed literally for years by my firm, is confiscation of retirement accounts.

The following is a cut-and-paste from this link which is password protected:

Note the date.

Written over two years ago.

_______________________________________________________

4/7/19

Government To Confiscate IRAs?  It’s Easy.

There has been enough time for the American working (and saving) public to take the lessons of the 2007- 2009 meltdown and act accordingly.

One of those lessons would have been to realize just how close they came to having their IRAs confiscated.

Personally, I’m surprised that any of the following links below are still active.  Well, who’s looking at this stuff anyway?  Certainly, not the general public:

Dems Target

Fact Check

Congress considering

Government to Confiscate

Confiscation of Private Retirement

Even in the Wall St. Journal:  Targeting your 401K

After reading several of these reports in 2009 and later, it did not take long for me to set the plan in motion to cash out … completely.  I took the 10% penalty, while it’s still 10% and liquidated my accounts (not advice, not a recommendation).

The rest of the population?  Not so much.

I think it was Prechter who laid out just how easy it is for the government to seize IRA accounts.  It’s basically a two step process.

Step 1. 

The market drops 50% to 70%.  Remember, the drop from 2007 to the bottom in 2009 was 58%.

Step 2.

Declare a state of emergency (executive order) for the working population and move in to “save” the IRA accounts from more devastation.  

The result would involve a stiff withdrawal penalty (say 50%) and to “protect” the accounts from further losses, IRAs can only invest in U.S. Treasuries or Bonds.

______________________________________________________

End of cut-and-paste

The scenario may not happen exactly as detailed above. The Stew Peters link (repeated here) shows there are several ways to access the IRA accounts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

 


Peak Oil ?

October 30, 2021 By in Biotech, DUG, LABD, Neo Feudalism, Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, SPBIO, The Speck, XOP 1 Comment

Will Demand Collapse Faster Than Supply Contracts ?

Is There A Biotech Connection ?

The Next Chess Move

Everyone’s good at telling you what the problem is; it’s a financial collapse !!!

No, Duh!

The hard part is, how to position for the unknown at least for those of us in the serfdom.

The so-called elites, the oligarchs know (or think they know) exactly what’s happening.

They move their chess players and we move ours. The goal is to position for (potential) profit with the caveat we all make it out on the other side.

Personal Anecdote (skip to XOP Analysis if not interested):

I have a close family member that’s been a school teacher for about twenty years. He/She is well known in the local town and has a significant number of connections.

Because the children being taught are typically small, ranging from kindergarten to fourth grade, those kids tend to reveal all that’s happening at home.

Their revelations include financial status (or lack of), political leanings as well as abuse that’s happening physically and sexually. It’s the real deal.

As an aside, any potential crimes are fully documented and reported.

The point here is, this contact has revealed that children, family members and extended family members are severely ill or dropping dead after receiving an ‘injection’.

However, the surviving family members are just too stupid (or afraid) to put it together; the injections are causing the deaths.

It’s some kind of mental block and/or mass hypnosis.

It’s wrenching and heartbreaking.

However, at the same time and this is where it gets harsh, for those of us in the faith, we know Biblical scripture tells us the Lord delights in hiding the truth.

One has to diligently seek out truth. It takes work and a prayerful form of neural plasticity; the ability to be mentally flexible.

Truth is not for the lazy, the incompetent, the coward.

Why should immutable truth come to a coward or idiot that does not diligently seek it?

New ‘Variant’:

The rapidly increasing deaths may be passed off by the mainstream media as some kind of new ‘variant’.

That ‘variant’ brings us to the market at hand; oil and oil exploration XOP and possible biotech connection.

XOP Analysis:

As with biotech SPBIO, and its leveraged inverse fund LABD, so too we have Oil & Gas Exploration XOP, and leveraged inverse fund DUG.

The long term un-marked, weekly chart of XOP:

Next, we have price action contacting a multi-year trendline:

Moving closer on the weekly, we have a terminating wedge:

Terminating wedge(s) typically result in price action moving opposite of wedge formation.

In the case above, that would be a reversal to the downside.

This past week’s bar was a reversal. It’s a potential signal the formation is complete and XOP is ready for the downside.

Of course, if XOP is about to head lower, inverse DUG is about to head higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Daily chart of DUG.

The Biotech (SPBIO) Connection:

The weekly chart of SPBIO, shows momentum on downward thrusts has slowed. The black dashed arrow’s trajectory is becoming more shallow:

If biotech is going to retrace, the solid blue line is a Fibonacci 38%, as well as potential location for an up-thrust (downside reversal).

A new variant (which is likely injection injury) may be used by the media to drive biotech higher to the retrace level.

We’ll have to wait and see if there’s a reduction of the population as we head into the end of the year. It’s a known fact, the injection destroys the immune system … so far, permanently.

That would be a factor in the up-coming flu season.

Remember that?

We used to have a regular flu season … but that all disappeared (re-branded, actually) with our current situation.

Summary:

Nearly all recessions have started with rising oil prices.

However, we’re not in a recession but an all out collapse. The economy is contracting at the fastest rate in U.S. history.

Our current position is demand will collapse faster than supply restriction (not advice, not a recommendation).

Or, we could still have rising oil prices but it won’t be enough to offset the cost of drilling and production; lack of demand may be overwhelming.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Courtesy Post: Position Change

October 29, 2021 By in DUG, Positions, XOP

Analysis To Follow

For whatever reason, the biotech (LABD) short is not performing as expected.

However, the oil market looks like it may have topped out.

Positioning:

Exit LABD and re-position short oil sector via inverse fund DUG (absolutely not advice, not a recommendation) 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dollar … Before The Open

October 29, 2021 By in Dollar, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, UUP

What To Watch

Spring (Reversal) Position

Not every bullish set-up works.

However with the dollar, continuing sentiment is so negative along with bonds, the dollar has potential to do the unexpected; that is, go higher.

Yesterday, UUP pushed below support (and 23.6% retrace) levels.

In so doing, price action’s now in ‘spring’ (reversal) position.

Pre-market action shows UUP, trading higher; right at support that may now be resistance … maybe.

That’s where to watch.

‘No one expects the Spanish Inquisition’ … right?

The currently held belief is dollar collapse and gold to $3,000/oz.

Dollar (UUP) Analysis:

The daily chart of UUP may be painting a different scenario:

The dollar’s already in an up-trend. It just established support at the 23.6%, Fibonacci level. There was a bounce higher and then yesterday, penetration below support.

Now, in the pre-market, UUP is currently trading at 25.14 – 25.16, which is at or even above the support level.

A dollar reversal higher at this point, being a very shallow 23.6% retrace thus far, would potentially spell big trouble for gold and the miners.

Of course, no one ‘expects’ this to happen.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech: Last Squeeze ?

October 28, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff

Whack The Bears One-More-Time

The daily chart above, shows our current location.

Inverting the chart and expanding the price action gives us the following:

Was today an attempt to break the up-trend (down-trend, non-inverted)?

Wyckoff called this type of sharp adverse move ‘threatening action’.

You won’t know if the market’s going to carry out the threat until the next session or subsequent sessions.

Positioning:

My firm’s (core) short position remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, the main account holding of LABD, was reduced by approximately 2.9%, during this session to adjust for margin requirements.

It’s important to note, the after hours session is already trading about 1% higher (for inverse LABD); a typical occurrence when the day’s move was a shakeout.

We’ll see if that action carries over to the regular session tomorrow.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold: Thanksgiving Treat

October 27, 2021 By in GLD, GOLD, Holiday Turns 1 Comment

On Track For Breakout, Then Reversal ?

If gold (GLD) maintains its current trend, it’s on track for breakout (up-thrust) during or before Thanksgiving week.

Holiday weeks are where market reversals tend to occur; when nobody’s looking.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Repeating Set-Up

October 26, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff

If Set-Ups Repeat, Why Bother With The News?

Because, it’s the news that’s pushing around those who are easily manipulated, causing set-up(s) to materialize.

Decades ago, Wyckoff said that a speculator, will never be successful in the markets until they can completely ignore the news.

Sure, it’s important to monitor the news … but not for the purpose of speculating or investing.

Keep track of it to identify what they’re trying to accomplish. What’s the desired outcome for their press releases? Who are they trying to influence and maybe ask why?

Wyckoff went on to say (paraphrasing).

‘Put the other traders and speculators to work for you. Stand aside and let them spend their own money to drive prices into a high probability set-up.’

With that in mind, last week’s ‘Shakedown’ update on biotech SPBIO, and inverse fund LABD, said this:

“Because LABD, price action has hit the 21.40 area three times and rebounded, … it could, … could head lower for a penetration and spring set-up.”

Well, today was the penetration and spring set-up 🙂

Inverse Biotech Fund LABD

Hourly Chart

We’ve had the penetration of support … the rebound as well as what looks like a test.

Expectation for LABD, is to move higher from here to the top of the trading range.

Positioning:

My firm remains short SPBIO via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech’s showing weakness in the face of all-time highs in the S&P as well as the Dow.

What’s going to happen to ‘already in a bear market biotech’, when the overall markets reach their final top?

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Stage Is Set

October 25, 2021 By in Dollar, GLD, GOLD, UUP 1 Comment

Dollar’s Absent From The Show

To get the gold bulls in a hypnotic trance, thinking $3,000/oz. is just around the corner, the appropriate press releases need to be created.

As if on cue, reported by Jerimiah Babe, big names are coming out to say ‘hyperinflation’s’ a sure thing.

If it’s not happening now (as we speak) it’s bound to happen very soon.

In fact, just look at the prices (time stamp 1:30). Those price increases are proof.

Never mind the hundred or so ships off CA, or even the containers just happening to ‘slide off’ into the sea.

But wait, what about the fire?

No manufactured (um, sorry ‘supply chain’) crisis would be complete without a fire.

However, there’s a problem with all this hypnotizing the masses to hyperinflation.

That problem is … the dollar’s not playing along.

Dollar, UUP Analysis:

In fact, the dollar is showing significant strength.

It’s right at Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace (very shallow) and appears ready to move higher.

The weekly chart of UUP, is below and includes the Fibonacci levels.

The next chart expands the last few weeks to show contact with the 23.6%, line and what looks like a nascent move up:

If UUP manages to make a new weekly high above last week’s 25.24, level, we have confirmation it’s attempting to continue the reversal and up-trend.

That reversal started way back at the beginning of this year.

This is what was said back then when the dollar looked poised for imminent collapse.

If gold and the dollar are still inversely correlated, the dollar appears ready for an upside breakout; obviously, a breakout higher would then put down pressure on gold.

Gold (GLD) Reversal:

Five weeks ago, the potential for a significant gold (GLD) reversal was discussed at this link.

That idea was updated last Friday at this link.

Then, over the weekend we’ve discovered one other analyst coming up with their own version.

At this juncture, GLD continues to ratchet higher to the 171 – 175 target area.

That move’s happening along with the requisite press generated hysteria … helping lead the bulls to a potential last stand.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Random Notes

October 24, 2021 By in Prechter, Random Notes, Usual Suspects

The Usual Suspects For The Week

No. 1

Hawking Gold

Back in the day, these people were run out of town.

Scrolling down to the comments (if they have not been deleted), some are starting to catch on.

No 2

Dark Winter

Stumbled on this Dark Winter link while scrolling through comments on the Northwest ‘bomb cyclone’.

Simulated scenarios for biological weapons release.

Video is from 2015:

Problem, reaction, solution.

Time stamp 2:50 is especially telling.

No. 3

Iraqveteran8888

What does it mean?

This link contains the answer.

No 4

Inflation, Not

Well, here we go again. The current ‘inflation’ is NOT the destruction of the dollar.

What are the ‘inflationists’ going to say if/when gold has a major break to the downside as detailed below in No. 5.

“It’s all rigged !”

Line No. 6, shows us what’s it’s really all about … destruction of survival: food, tools, parts, consumables.

No 5

Gold Forecast: Look Familiar???

Just found this link

First presented here at this link … over a month ago.

Latest update is here.

No. 6

Voyage To The Bottom Of The Sea

The next chess move.

First, it’s the containers being sent to the bottom.

Are the ships next?

No 7

Destruction of the ‘Wealth Management Firms’

Robert Prechter said it years (if not decades) ago; the next mega bear market is going to destroy the ‘wealth management’ industry.

Some entities are not even waiting for the bear market.

They’re getting out in front. Sort of being the leader … if leading anything is even possible for a corporation.

This is the latest round in self-induced annihilation

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Moderna (injections) Suspended

October 23, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, LUV, MRNA, SPBIO, Wyckoff

Biotech, Bricks In The Wall

Complete Implosion.

This site’s been steadfast for over a year; biotech above all others, has the highest chance of sustained, long-term collapse.

‘Collapse’ is an overused word these days. It may have lost some meaning.

How about the word ‘exposure‘?

Biotech has the highest chance of being exposed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sweden Suspends Moderna:

There it is out in the mainstream: Indefinite suspension.

About a week ago, the fist bullet item in this list discussed Moderna; that when price action reverses to the down-side (after being a market darling), the lawsuits start.

It’s not the lawsuits themselves, but the discovery process that’s part of the trial … if it goes to trial.

One can guess with some assurance, the last thing Moderna wants is for this baby (any potential lawsuit) to go to discovery and trial.

This could be one of those times, popcorn is justified; watching it all from the sidelines.

Southwest Backs Off:

Looks like greed is more powerful than jabs.

At least we can see the priorities and keep that for future reference.

Now, all-of-a-sudden, it makes no sense to destroy executive stock options with forced collapse of the organization.

Glad we have such genius executives in charge. 🙂

Meanwhile, Back At The Ranch:

While all that’s going on, we still have the financial press talking about earnings and sales and ‘pent up demand’ like any of that is important or actually real.

The only reality at this point in time, is the price.

Biotech SPBIO, Inverse Fund LABD Analysis:

We’re going to start with the un-marked chart of SPBIO:

Next, we’re going to invert that chart; giving a better perspective of what the inverse fund LABD, is tracking:

Repeating a previous observation; price action over the last two months (from late August to now), has calmed down.

Price range has narrowed and movement looks orderly.

Our take on this; bears have assumed control and are preparing (opening positions) for a directional move.

Compared to my firm and probably anyone reading, their capital is unlimited. They’re also patient.

Depending on the level of greed, they’re keeping price action from a major breakout until positioning is complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Wyckoff termed this phenomenon (a century ago) as the ‘composite operator’, or the ‘central mind’.

This is how markets work. There’s no getting away from it.

By making a transaction, any transaction, one has implicitly entered the ‘arena’ where the gladiators (the professionals) are ready to take all you own.

Moving in a little closer, we already have a trend.

Price action bounced off support on Friday (resistance on the inverted chart) but closed nearly unchanged.

Summary:

When you have satire like this and especially at time stamp 6:35, the pressure continues to build … almost from all sides.

My firm remains short SPBIO via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

That is, until the market itself says the bearish analysis is wrong or it’s time to exit.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279