Gold Bulls … Stage Is Set

Dollar’s Absent From The Show

To get the gold bulls in a hypnotic trance, thinking $3,000/oz. is just around the corner, the appropriate press releases need to be created.

As if on cue, reported by Jerimiah Babe, big names are coming out to say ‘hyperinflation’s’ a sure thing.

If it’s not happening now (as we speak) it’s bound to happen very soon.

In fact, just look at the prices (time stamp 1:30). Those price increases are proof.

Never mind the hundred or so ships off CA, or even the containers just happening to ‘slide off’ into the sea.

But wait, what about the fire?

No manufactured (um, sorry ‘supply chain’) crisis would be complete without a fire.

However, there’s a problem with all this hypnotizing the masses to hyperinflation.

That problem is … the dollar’s not playing along.

Dollar, UUP Analysis:

In fact, the dollar is showing significant strength.

It’s right at Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace (very shallow) and appears ready to move higher.

The weekly chart of UUP, is below and includes the Fibonacci levels.

The next chart expands the last few weeks to show contact with the 23.6%, line and what looks like a nascent move up:

If UUP manages to make a new weekly high above last week’s 25.24, level, we have confirmation it’s attempting to continue the reversal and up-trend.

That reversal started way back at the beginning of this year.

This is what was said back then when the dollar looked poised for imminent collapse.

If gold and the dollar are still inversely correlated, the dollar appears ready for an upside breakout; obviously, a breakout higher would then put down pressure on gold.

Gold (GLD) Reversal:

Five weeks ago, the potential for a significant gold (GLD) reversal was discussed at this link.

That idea was updated last Friday at this link.

Then, over the weekend we’ve discovered one other analyst coming up with their own version.

At this juncture, GLD continues to ratchet higher to the 171 – 175 target area.

That move’s happening along with the requisite press generated hysteria … helping lead the bulls to a potential last stand.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Random Notes

The Usual Suspects For The Week

No. 1

Hawking Gold

Back in the day, these people were run out of town.

Scrolling down to the comments (if they have not been deleted), some are starting to catch on.

No 2

Dark Winter

Stumbled on this Dark Winter link while scrolling through comments on the Northwest ‘bomb cyclone’.

Simulated scenarios for biological weapons release.

Video is from 2015:

Problem, reaction, solution.

Time stamp 2:50 is especially telling.

No. 3

Iraqveteran8888

What does it mean?

This link contains the answer.

No 4

Inflation, Not

Well, here we go again. The current ‘inflation’ is NOT the destruction of the dollar.

What are the ‘inflationists’ going to say if/when gold has a major break to the downside as detailed below in No. 5.

“It’s all rigged !”

Line No. 6, shows us what’s it’s really all about … destruction of survival: food, tools, parts, consumables.

No 5

Gold Forecast: Look Familiar???

Just found this link

First presented here at this link … over a month ago.

Latest update is here.

No. 6

Voyage To The Bottom Of The Sea

The next chess move.

First, it’s the containers being sent to the bottom.

Are the ships next?

No 7

Destruction of the ‘Wealth Management Firms’

Robert Prechter said it years (if not decades) ago; the next mega bear market is going to destroy the ‘wealth management’ industry.

Some entities are not even waiting for the bear market.

They’re getting out in front. Sort of being the leader … if leading anything is even possible for a corporation.

This is the latest round in self-induced annihilation

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Moderna (injections) Suspended

Biotech, Bricks In The Wall

Complete Implosion.

This site’s been steadfast for over a year; biotech above all others, has the highest chance of sustained, long-term collapse.

‘Collapse’ is an overused word these days. It may have lost some meaning.

How about the word ‘exposure‘?

Biotech has the highest chance of being exposed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sweden Suspends Moderna:

There it is out in the mainstream: Indefinite suspension.

About a week ago, the fist bullet item in this list discussed Moderna; that when price action reverses to the down-side (after being a market darling), the lawsuits start.

It’s not the lawsuits themselves, but the discovery process that’s part of the trial … if it goes to trial.

One can guess with some assurance, the last thing Moderna wants is for this baby (any potential lawsuit) to go to discovery and trial.

This could be one of those times, popcorn is justified; watching it all from the sidelines.

Southwest Backs Off:

Looks like greed is more powerful than jabs.

At least we can see the priorities and keep that for future reference.

Now, all-of-a-sudden, it makes no sense to destroy executive stock options with forced collapse of the organization.

Glad we have such genius executives in charge. 🙂

Meanwhile, Back At The Ranch:

While all that’s going on, we still have the financial press talking about earnings and sales and ‘pent up demand’ like any of that is important or actually real.

The only reality at this point in time, is the price.

Biotech SPBIO, Inverse Fund LABD Analysis:

We’re going to start with the un-marked chart of SPBIO:

Next, we’re going to invert that chart; giving a better perspective of what the inverse fund LABD, is tracking:

Repeating a previous observation; price action over the last two months (from late August to now), has calmed down.

Price range has narrowed and movement looks orderly.

Our take on this; bears have assumed control and are preparing (opening positions) for a directional move.

Compared to my firm and probably anyone reading, their capital is unlimited. They’re also patient.

Depending on the level of greed, they’re keeping price action from a major breakout until positioning is complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Wyckoff termed this phenomenon (a century ago) as the ‘composite operator’, or the ‘central mind’.

This is how markets work. There’s no getting away from it.

By making a transaction, any transaction, one has implicitly entered the ‘arena’ where the gladiators (the professionals) are ready to take all you own.

Moving in a little closer, we already have a trend.

Price action bounced off support on Friday (resistance on the inverted chart) but closed nearly unchanged.

Summary:

When you have satire like this and especially at time stamp 6:35, the pressure continues to build … almost from all sides.

My firm remains short SPBIO via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

That is, until the market itself says the bearish analysis is wrong or it’s time to exit.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Coup D’état, Draws Nigh

Leading Gold Bulls To The Last Stand

It’s your host’s engineering background that causes him to go looking for supporting data (or lack of) when presenting a contrary opinion or analysis.

Usually, that means sifting through randomly selected research or YouTube links on the subject; just to make sure the idea’s not being discussed by someone else.

This round’s sample of links is provided for reference below.

The Alpha FX

Capital-com

Kitco NEWS

None of them even hint of a potential ‘gold bull trap’.

Of the three, Kitco NEWS, receives the day’s honorable mention.

It contained the most amount of useless information; All of it, jam packed into a 21-minute period.

Particularly egregious was (time stamp 18:35), “Sentiment always follows price”.

Sorry Charlie. Star-Kist wants only the best.

The proper sequence is: Sentiment, Volume, then Price. 🙂

The Potential Gold (GLD) Set-Up:

We’re calling the ‘coup d’état’, for lack of a better description.

The bullish hype is so bad and the me-too-ism on YouTube is so disgusting; being devoid of original thought (i.e., it’s a set-up), one has to be prepared for the opposite.

If GLD, manages to move higher to the 172 -175, area, it could be the final thrust before a wrenching sharp, or sustained decline.

The last time gold was discussed in detail was this post.

Gold (GLD) Analysis:

Daily chart (mid-session) of GLD, with the set-up target is below:

The first time the up-thrust target (above) was presented, was this post in September.

These charts are an example of what strategy is all about.

Price action after that post, seemed to negate the possibility and so the idea was tabled.

Now, with the GLD reversal off the lows in late September, we’re back on.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Shakedown’ In Biotech

Don’t Think It’s A Racket ?

Well, here’s your proof.

It looked like biotech inverse fund LABD was going through a standard ‘test’ and then secondary ‘test’ (not as common).

Price action lulled participants to sleep; including this author.

Then , the shakedown.

The purpose is obvious; scare (nearly) everybody half-to-death and have them close out their positions.

It seemed to be working.

Early on, it looked like LABD was going to crater … with SPBIO launching higher accordingly.

Then, a funny thing happened.

LABD Block Trades:

As LABD price action was reaching its session lows, huge amounts of volume started to print on the tape.

Price action was not going down further and yet ‘block trades’ started to show up.

Strictly speaking, a block trade is anything over 10,000 shares.

However, I’m lumping in the 5,000 share trades and up, into the ‘block’.

There were plenty of those including one (buy) block for 13,000 @ 21.66; that’s equivalent to $281,580.

Stand Fast:

It’s days like today, understanding where one is in the market, is critical.

The initial work had been done long ago; that biotech (SPBIO) had printed three down quarters in a row.

The main long-term trend is down until price action says it’s not (not advice, not a recommendation).

LABD Analysis:

The un-marked daily of LABD is below:

Next, we move closer in and mark-up the 30-minute chart:

The large spike in volume is clear.

Volume in that bar’s 30-minutes was the highest since October 1st which was during a huge upward spike in LABD.

Positioning:

If LABD comes back down to the lows, it would indicate weakness and potential exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, the short biotech (SPBIO) via LABD, is being maintained (not advice, not a recommendation).

Last Thing:

Because LABD, price action has hit the 21.40 area three times and rebounded, … it could, … could head lower for a penetration and spring set-up.

Everybody and their dog (that’s left) has now put their stops at that level.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mount Aso Volcano Erupts

Or … ‘How’s That Stack Of Silver ?’

One result of a solar minimum (reduced sun-spot activity) is increased volcanic eruptions.

That increase has something to do with more solar radiation hitting and penetrating the earth.

Thus far, it’s not fully understood.

A contrary thought; it’s understood (able to be manipulated) but that insight’s not going to be revealed to us the proletariat.

One data point in favor of the ‘proletariat’ scenario is at this link. Right at the start in the upper left, you see clouds.

What’s strange about them? Think ‘wavelength‘.

Hiding in plain sight.

Honorable Mention:

This update would be remiss if it did not mention the latest on China’s reduced fertilizer exports.

Futures market for Urea (not making that up), moving briskly higher.

Mid Session:

Back At The Ranch, SPBIO (LABD)

Biotech SPBIO, is in the process of testing yesterday’s action.

The hourly chart of the inverse fund LABD, has price action in the process of competing a secondary test.

The take-away is unchanged.

Biotech (SPBIO) looks like it’s preparing for a directional move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action thus far (since the support penetration), is consistent with that potential.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Shifting Sand

Or … How To Spot A Change Of Character

Art & Science: Interpreting price action requires both.

Since the September 2nd, high in biotech SPBIO and low for inverse LABD, the character of the market has changed.

Price action has become tight and orderly.

Typically, when that happens, someone (some entity) is gaining control. They are preparing the market for a directional move.

That’s the science part; the observation part.

Art is ephemeral. You don’t know if it matters to the subject at hand or not.

You won’t know until it becomes obvious.

In the markets, when it’s obvious, it’s too late.

News Of Note:

Within the past few days, there have been at least two news stories of note: Here and here.

It’s not really the stories themselves but what they represent.

Go to time stamp 8:10, at this link. That’s what it’s about.

The so-called controlling entities may be in the early stages of consuming each other.

What does that have to do the the markets and specifically biotech? Those thinking they were safe and getting fake ‘protection’ could be realizing, maybe they didn’t.

Maybe it was the real thing.

Mid Session:

SPBIO (Inverse, LABD):

The market’s had a change in character.

Whether or not the above links were the reason, just part of the reason or not at all, won’t be known until long after the market opportunity has passed.

We’ll start with the un-marked daily chart of leveraged inverse fund LABD:

Tight price action identified:

Now, it gets interesting.

We’ll zoom in on part of the tight area using the hourly chart:

LABD has oscillated around support and then penetrated that support as shown.

Price action rose dramatically from there. We’ll label it as a sign of demand (Wyckoff term).

Next, we have the testing action. David Weis used to call it “The Gut Check”.

Tests can either pass or fail. That currently puts LABD at the danger point.

Positioning:

My firm’s position remains unchanged: Short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary:

As this post is being created, LABD is moving up off the test lows. So far, overall price action has been well behaved.

Thus far, there has been no major (news generating) price break.

That type of controlled movement allows large positions to be built carefully and quietly (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Reverse Gear

Mid Session

PACCAR Truck Builder In Reverse

PACCAR’s in reverse in more ways than one.

From a market standpoint, this morning’s action puts PCAR at the danger point.

If today’s action or subsequent action can’t make a new daily high, then we’re in a potential up-thrust (reversal) condition.

The daily chart shows our well documented ‘spring to up-thrust’ empirically observed repeating pattern.

Keep your eye on Friday’s high (87.46). That’s the risk (not advice, not a recommendation).

It should be noted, there’s also potential to up-thrust around the 90.50, area; the location of a 50% retrace (not shown).

Last Friday’s high occurred at the 38%, retrace level.

Looking at it from a long term Quarterly perspective, gives us the chart below:

PCAR’s been in a rising (terminating) wedge for years. Now, it looks like the ‘throw-over’ is nearing completion.

What Does It Mean?

Why focus on PACCAR?

Because it’s the builder of trucks that are used to complete the supply chain; from container shipping dock to store-front or distribution facility.

If we do get a solid reversal back into the rising wedge, it signals a long term decline.

As of this post, PCAR is holding steady around 86.50.

Penetration of today’s low (85.45) signals trouble and potential confirmation of the up-thrust.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Random Notes

The Usual Suspects For The Week

No. 1

Moderna: Bad News On The Way?

Whenever a high-flyer darling stock changes course and reverses down in a big way, the lawsuits start.

‘Investors’ only know one direction … up.

They figure they’re so smart, any decision from them that does not work out, must be someone else’s fault.

Class Action for Moderna (with discovery) may be dead ahead.

MRNA is currently down – 34.8%, from its all time highs.

Let’s start our stopwatch and see how long it takes for the first ‘Notice’.

No. 2

‘How To Short The Dollar’

Well, if you need to know how to do it, you shouldn’t be doing it.

No. 3

Gold Pontifications

You don’t have to go more than 1:18, into this interview to get an inaccurate definition of inflation.

With that said, it does not keep the (delusional) bugs in the comment section from eating it up.

The interviewer, if he had the strength, could have stopped it right there and challenged with: ‘Inflation is defined as the expansion of credit that results in increased demand that in turn results in higher prices.’

At this point in time, we’re in credit destruction (i.e. Wells Fargo shutting down credit lines) not expansion … um, which is deflation not inflation.

Look at the velocity of money; enough said.

Moving on, there’s possible miss-direction at time stamp 11:40.

Anyone talking about that subject as something that’s real (other than this type of real) is at best, disingenuous.

What’s in the media is there for a reason.

That reason is to shape your thoughts and keep you thinking ‘inside the box‘.

Ending this item on a humorous note, years ago, probably 2003 – 2004, I had signed up for several Dr. Elder webinars.

During one of those, he made an off-hand comment to the effect:

‘Never trust a bald man who wears a hat indoors

Not kidding.

His son, who was the moderator at the time, immediately went into damage control; posting apologies directly into the live stream 🙂

No. 4

Lions and Tigers and Bears … Oh My!

Now we need to inject zoo animals.

You can’t make this stuff up.

Who knows when or if the tide will turn.

At this point, it looks like there will be complete destruction first which brings us to the next bullet item.

No. 5

Only Problems. No Solutions

Personal Anecdote. Skip to No. 6, if not interested.

Back in the day as an Engineering Manager, there were times an employee (usually an engineer) would walk into my office and give me a list of problems on a particular project.

If this happened a second time, I would sort of gently (maybe) let them know, ‘If you bring me problems, you need to have solutions as well.’

I also let them know, if they were not able to come with solutions, I would map out a long-term action plan (basically starting documentation for termination) for their continued development.

How many YouTube sites talk endlessly about the problem?

It does not take much effort or thought or creativeness to tell us what we already know.

This site not only presents the problem(s), but also presents potential solution(s) or action(s).

Example:

Problem: Markets stretched to valuations beyond historical extremes. Traditional methods of analysis (P/E ratios, Book Value. etc.) no longer work. The market could ‘disconnect’ and be unavailable to trade for days or weeks at a time (think Klaus Schwab ‘cyber attack’).

Solution: (not advice, not a recommendation):

Identify a market and trading vehicle that has its own direction and is separated from the overall mass-hysteria. Position ‘in and out’, as required in that market until such time there are other opportunities of similar potential.

That market thus far, has been identified as biotech, SPBIO. The trading vehicle is LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Any disconnect or surprise event is already factored in as a likely positive for the position taken, i.e. being short biotech

We’re not only taking this approach for the current market environment but the supply chain as well.

The supply chain shut down and the potential famine that will ensue, is one of, if not the main reason(s) silver and gold may be of no use (at least temporarily) in the troubles to come.

They shall cast their silver in the streets, and their gold shall be removed: their silver and their gold shall not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the LORD:

At this point in time, I’m sticking with Ezekiel.

No. 6

Mr E Is Back

Back in the day, before YouTube did its purge, we had Mr. E.

Evidently he was verbally abused in an elevator by a hoard of the mindless and masked.

This video is his response.

No. 7

Taboo, Scaboo

Well, it would not be a compete ‘Notes’ update without mention of Scaboo.

Here he is at his new home … a few miles north of town.

As mentioned in the last update, the hen that gave him trouble at the outset, well, he’s got that all sorted out.

According to his new owners, he takes his job seriously.

He protects the hens and is meticulous about getting them into their coop at night. He then goes to his own coop; sort of a personal man-cave.

This picture was taken by the new owner.

You have to figure they must be pleased with him to wait long enough to capture such a majestic pose.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

In The Spotlight

Beginning Of The End ?

Or … Just The End Of The Beginning ?

Maybe, it turns out that some people don’t want to be in the spotlight after all.

Click on the link.

See if your jaw doesn’t drop with how casually the interview discusses things we (the serfs) should not know.

That interview (at least the ‘tweet’) is from February, this year. So, maybe this is old news to some.

Even so, it’s just one of the many bricks in the wall for biotech.

With that said, let’s take a look at our chief cook and bottle washer: SPBIO

SPBIO (and inverse, LABD) Analysis:

The last update said that we expected SPBIO, to decline and LABD, to rise from current levels.

That’s exactly what happened.

As usual, we’ll start with the unmarked chart:

Obviously, biotech’s not moving higher.

At Friday’s close, it’s down – 28.4%, from the all time highs posted February, this year.

Market Insight:

The ‘tweet’ in the link above, is dated February 9th, 2021.

The all time high for biotech SPBIO, was the very same day: February 9th, 2021.

Remember, there are no coincidences.

Let’s mark up the daily chart; showing that Friday was an outside-down (key reversal) day.

The right-most area of the chart has been zoomed-in.

Higher high, lower low and lower close:

The next chart is where it gets interesting.

We’ve included a Fibonacci projection; going from all time highs to lows in May and then counter-trend high on June 28th:

It’s clear the 23.6%, projection level has been an axis line.

SPBIO, price action has oscillated about this area for months.

With Thursday’s ‘a-b-c’ corrective move and Friday’s outside-down reversal, that axis oscillation may be complete.

If SPBIO is to head lower from this point (which is expected), we’ll watch to see if price action ‘respects’ the Fibonacci projections; that is, will price action head lower to 38%, then 50%, and on?

Positioning:

Friday was a good day to be short via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech, is nowhere near all time highs. The sector is essentially running neck-and-neck with GDX, to the downside.

The expectation’s for SPBIO to head lower in the coming week.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279