Monthly Archives: January 2021

CORN: Breakout Ready

January 31, 2021 By in Corn, Food Supply, GME, Van Metre

Price action in futures tracking fund CORN, is congesting in a tight range; ready for breakout to the upside.

This is not about inflation.

Frequent visitors to this site already know the entire food supply chain, from field to market, is being systematically destroyed.

Probably the best source of documentation is at ice age farmer.

For years, ‘ice age’ has been reporting step by step plans and events in place to choke-off food production and distribution.

Digressing for just a bit: The firm managing this site, presenting its analysis of markets and corollary events, is constantly searching for additional information or new data sources.

If a new market analysis (or other news) source is located, then that ‘source’ says there’s food price inflation because of dollar devaluation, it’s eliminated as being reliable or aware of actual events: DONE.

At this point, everyone should know exactly why food prices are rising.

Whenever we get the next ‘Black Swan’ event, there’ll be no time to vet out information sources. That should’ve been done long before there’s another market or world upset.

The recent Game Stop (GME) event may just be a blip; a side detour in the overall plan.

Van Metre calls the whole short squeeze “brilliant”. So it was.

We can rest assured, that hole in the dike (a proletariat uprising) will be plugged ‘tout de suite’.

Food is the key. It’s the choke point. End of digression.

Getting back to CORN. Price action may congest more before a sustained breakout. There may even be a head-fake to the downside to flush out any weak longs.

From an investment or trading standpoint, price is at the point where political events could cause action to become unreliable … think Jimmy Carter and the grain embargo after the Russians (Soviets at that time) invaded Afghanistan.

It’s the trader’s discretion whether or not to position long.

My firm’s action is to be aware of price and use it as a proxy for up-coming events.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Hanging by a Thread

January 30, 2021 By in DRV, GDX, GOLD, IYR, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

Semiconductor SOXX, is hanging by a thread.

Did SOXX just break away during the past week or is there going to be an attempt to close the gap?

When a market closes down for the week and near its lows, there’s usually follow-through action at the next open.

SOXX may never get the chance to fill the gap.

If we look at inverse fund SOXS, it’s showing a potential trend-line. Maintaining that line will double the price (at Friday’s close) sometime in early March.

The chart below also shows the firm’s entry point; not advice, not a recommendation.

In a way, semiconductors are similar to aviation; margins are razor thin.

When there’s an economic down-turn, both get hit especially hard.

At this juncture, I have positioned my firm short in both real estate (via DRV) as well as short the semi-industry (via SOXS). Not advice, not a recommendation.

The SOXS position finished in the green by the close. DRV is showing a loss but closing that gap quickly.

Separately, and in a report planned for tomorrow, we’ll cover the food supply. The ongoing (planned) shortage is proving correct, the approach it’s ‘corn first, then silver and gold’.

If Van Metre’s GDX forecast is on target (declining to 17, or even 14), gold bugs may find themselves liquidating their positions; just so they have enough money to pay for hyper-inflated food.

In effect, gold will be irrelevant; a very possible (short-term) event.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

S&P 500: Trend Break, Test

January 29, 2021 By in S&P 500, SPY, Wyckoff

Yesterday, the S&P tested its trend breakout and then reversed.

This morning’s pre-market action is down again.

The teminiating wedge is clear. Then a decisive break with an upward test. Late in the session that test was rejected and the market headed lower.

That scenario could have easily been from 1931’s stock market action, not 2021.

Buried within the Wyckoff training course material (first published 1931), available here, is a statement to the effect:

‘When a market breaks a trend decisively and with volume, there’s nearly always some type of rally to test the break.’

That’s exactly what we got yesterday. Now, the S&P (SPY) is in a wide pre-market range but essentially trading lower.

A terminating wedge is typically the last stop in a move; whether it’s up or down.

The S&P could of course rally from here. At this point, probabilities favor lower; at lest to a measured move target in the vicinity of 368, for SPY.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Bear Flag … Bear Market

January 28, 2021 By in Bonds, Dollar, GDX, GOLD

Bear flags post in a bear market

Bull flags post in a bull market

Right?

One would think.

It’s different though, if you’re a rabid ‘not-right-in-the-head’ gold bull.

The professional does not care which direction the market is heading. The only important thing is, and to paraphrase Livermore:

‘There’s only one side of the market to be on … and that’s the right side.’

GDX has posted and tested a bear flag.

At this juncture, it’s heading lower … possibly to test between 15 – 17, as was just mentioned yesterday, by Van Metre (time stamp 10:00).

Conversely, in the general equity markets, there’s reversal action with the S&P, Dow, Russell, all lower.

On top of that, bonds are in their own reversal (up again in the pre-market) as well as the dollar.

In the Van Metre link above, in addition to comments on gold, he also sates ‘the market is not prepared for a bond (and dollar) reversal.

When markets are sure of one thing and the other happens, it’s very ugly.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Real Estate, IYR Forecast

January 27, 2021 By in DRV, IYR

Recent price action now provides a tight range for downside targets.

Recall, that P&F charts show potential, not guarantees.

There’s enough congestion in IYR to build significant downside objectives. If we’re at a sustained reversal, then as IYR passes through the 78 – 82 area, it builds even more downside potential.

This is why there’s been so much focus on IYR.

Thinking of it in Elliott Wave terms, if we’re about to begin a Wave 3 (down), it can’t be shorter than Wave 1

That wave (100.75 to 56.27) collapsed a whopping – 44% .

As always, anything can happen. IYR is trading down but right at support. It could get a new lease on life … but probabilities say no.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

All Markets Down

January 27, 2021 By in DIA, Dow 30, DRV, IWM, IYR, QQQ, Real Estate, Russell 2000, S&P 500, SOXX, SPY

Pre-market action has all major indexes trading lower; SPY, DIA, QQQ, SOXX and IWM; all down.

Real estate, IYR has no real pre-market volume (20-shares) so its open is unknown. However, inverse fund DRV, does have volume (3,700 shares) and its action is up about 4%.

The daily close chart of IYR (above), has price action contacting an established axis line.

That was yesterday. Over the past two-weeks, as price ratcheted higher volume has declined (circled area enlarged).

That decline indicates lack of commitment at these levels.

Yesterday’s close also put IYR firmly in up-thrust position (ready for reversal).

Over the past week, short positions were opened using DRV (not advice, not a recommendation)

Average price of the short equates to DRV @ 9.92; not far from current pre-market trading.

If IYR posts a new daily low (below 86.62), it’s another data point the anticipated reversal may be at hand.

The rising action has changed the P&F forecast reported a few days back. Updates will be forthcoming.

If this is the start of a sustained reversal, the plan is to build the short position as price action dictates.

The downside of the entire market (S&P, Dow, etc.) is immense. Commercial real estate is especially vulnerable. Price action itself tells us that.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Flat-Line: Real Estate

January 26, 2021 By in DRV, IYR, S&P 500

It’s taken over six months for real estate’s IYR gain a net positive 1.9%.

The S&P eclipsed that many times over during the same time frame; gaining nearly 19%.

By this time, everyone knows about margin debt at never before extremes and the latest hedge fund blow-up.

As with earthquakes, cracks in the system appear to start small and then build to a massive disconnect.

Behind all the shiny object headlines, commercial real estate looks terminal. While the rest of the market powered to new recovery highs, IYR went flat-line.

Today’s close may be important.

We’ll see if somehow IYR is going to break out of the six-month sideways action, continuing higher or if this is it; no more upside.

Currently, the firm is short the sector with a negative return. Possibly a debatable position. However, if IYR is going to stall and reverse, this is a high probability location.

It’s not much different than Van Metre’s approach to the bond market. We know how the game is played. The market remains at manic levels … just waiting for the catalyst.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Pre-Market: XOP Down

January 25, 2021 By in DUG, XOP 1 Comment

If Oil & Gas XOP is trading down, inverse DUG will open higher.

Already in the green on DUG (not advice, not a recommendation), a new daily high would allow the stop to be moved; assuring at least 5%, gain on the position.

The magenta arrows have possible action and resulting stop movement.

If DUG posts a new daily high above 23.86, and closes higher for the day, the stop will be moved as shown (22.71).

From that point, stop movement will be discretionary as/if DUG moves higher.

We’re looking for either signs of a new more aggressive uptrend, or confirmation of the “2,200%” trend on the chart.

Expect resistance to show up in the 28.00 area.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

What, When, & Where

January 24, 2021 By in Cauliflower, Food Supply

This update will not contain any financial market analysis.

As the food supply noose tightens, this report shows one man’s approach to the disruptions as described by Christian at Ice Age Farmer.

MP3 file inserted below.

The photo at left was taken today in the early morning at a private garden; located in North Central Texas.

It’s been a mild day thus far at 57-degress, with a slight rain overnight.

The remining droplets of water can be seen on the cauliflower if one looks closely enough.

The brassica looks beautiful but it does not tell the whole story.

It took nearly three years to get the result shown.

Planting this type of cauliflower in Texas during the usual spring season, would later subject the burgeoning plants to a vicious attack from stinkbugs; a well established predator.

The bugs decimated the leaves and then multiplied exponentially to invade other plants in the garden as well as nearby peach trees.

After the bug attack, whatever skeletal remains of cauliflower were left, got incinerated during the Texas summer.

From the get-go, the cauliflower never had a chance.

For sure, this bug smorgasbord did attract natural predators like toads.

But after they gorged themselves on the well available supply, they were content to sit out the summer underneath some other garden plant that had been less susceptible to attack.

The corporate controlled food supply is being destroyed intentionally.

Faulty thinking like “No problem. I’ll just grown my own”, could result in starvation while still in the learning curve.

(to be continued)

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Fuel & Trucking Disruption

January 23, 2021 By in DUG, Positions, The Speck, XOP

That’s what can be expected from the Moving Forward Act.

Before we get started with any chart analysis, it’s important to note in the link above, submittal date for the bill was June 11, 2020; a full six months before ‘inauguration’.

Like the CARES Act (Speck relief bill) was submitted nine months before there was an outbreak in the far east, (the ‘relief’ bill was in the works for years), the Moving Forward Act was already making its way through committee long before the change in administration.

Just a short digression on CARES. Accessing the link above, one finds the original submittal date (January 2019, nine months before the outbreak) is nowhere to be found. History being scrubbed and re-written in real time.

Systematic destruction of the nation’s infrastructure is the plan; but the real target remains the food supply.

How does this knowledge help with Oil & Gas Sector analysis?

Supply disruptions could cause fuel prices (USO as proxy) to go higher while at the same time, drillers and producers go lower (XOP as proxy).

XOP chart analysis identified a potential set-up in this report.

That has proved correct thus far. Knowledge of the overall plan (supply disruption/destruction) lets us know the sector most likely is not coming back … not anytime soon.

Shorting XOP via DUG (not advice, not a recommendation) by repeatedly entering and exiting as required, could be a go-forward plan for months or years to come.

Looking at inverse fund DUG, the entry is shown. Price action retreated (testing) for two trading days before continuing on with its reversal.

It’s early in the move but there’s a potential trend line.

For inverse funds, trends in the hundreds or thousands of percent (annualized) are not unusual.

If the trend is maintained, a 100% gain on the position would occur right about the middle of April.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.