Gold (GDX) Bulls … Time To Hide?

Late Session

GDX Breakdown, Draws Nigh?

We’re not there yet and anything can happen in the meantime.

However, Senior Miner’s GDX, price action has moved lower during this session as expected.

Today has offered up one more clue for the bears provided GDX closes lower.

That is, we may have a channel confirmation:

Fibonacci time sequences are not necessarily always at price extremes. As shown above, they can define the width of a trading channel as well.

If this short (sell) set-up fails (GDX moves higher), we now have a definitive stop area for inverse fund DUST (not advice, not a recommendation); somewhere around: DUST 19.80 – 20.00.

Steven Van Metre in his last update, gave data on how the dollar is in a rally and nearing breakout position.

So far, there’s still a negative correlation between the dollar, gold, and gold miners.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

The Usual Suspects For The Week

No. 1

Woody’s: Mineral Wells, Texas

Woody’s is the type of place, when you open the door, if you’re not from around here, the piano music stops and everyone looks to see who’s the newest sodbuster in town.

If that ever happens to you, just announce to all:

“I’m not from Texas, but I got here as fast as I could”

With that, you should be good to go.

Not more than a few hundred yards from Woody’s, is where I slid my Ranger pickup off the road down an embankment and upside down during the Texas ice storm of 2006.

The Chevron station, time stamp 0:32, is where I parked my hobbled, totaled pickup on that freezing December day.

The cab was smashed and the frame bent … but it was mobile enough to make it to the gas station.

When I slid off the road, down the embankment into oncoming traffic on Hwy 180, I thought (as the pickup rolled over), “well, this is it, this is how I’m going out.”

There’s no way oncoming traffic’s going to stop … not on the ice … I braced for impact.

I reckoned on my own death.

It’s amazing how the almighty can engineer circumstances to be so perfect and so personal; it’s tailored specifically for you … to understand who’s really in control.

As the pickup came to a stop, upside down … the anticipated impact never came. Instead, within a few seconds, I had a woman knocking on my upside down driver’s window asking if I was ok.

I rolled it up (to go down) … it was a hand crank window. I unlocked the seatbelt and crawled outside. It was bitterly cold, windy, wet and sleeting.

What I saw was a line of pickups …. some Dually’s with stock trailers that had jackknifed on the ice … all stopped and the ‘Bubbas’ getting out to help with the overturned Ranger.

It took maybe five to seven of them to right the truck. I was in shock and grief but thankful as well.

I assured them I was ok. They had done their part and so went back to their own business. I then changed the right rear tire as the crash impact had blown out the seal.

By the time it was over, my hands were freezing … I got in and limped the truck to the Chevron station.

The point is this:

That crash revealed the character of the people at the time.

They put their own lives on hold (even if just temporarily) to do the right thing … to be the Good Samaritan.

So too, have current world events revealed the character of the people at the time.

That revelation is: The cowards and the corrupt have been thoroughly exposed.

Unprepared or unwilling to step up and be counted. Instead, they have done what comes naturally.

They have retreated.

Figuratively (or actually) building their back-yard decks so they can watch the financial and societal collapse in ‘comfort’.

On the flip side: The independent thinkers, leaders and the brave have been identified as well.

Those who are first generation of immigrant families (from communist countries) understand perfectly what’s happening.

They’re on a different path … taking action, getting ready.

All of which brings us to the next bullet item:

No. 2

Taboo Scaboo

Scaboo is our thoroughly illegal ‘urban rooster’.

Here he is, inside the backyard hen house with his ‘no crow’ collar clearly visible.

There’s no harm though as it’s relatively loose. It’s used more for psychological reasons; his or ours, not sure.

In an earlier update, having a rooster at this location is forbidden. Hens were recently ok’d when a previous city ordinance was overturned.

However, there are strict rules on how many and the located distance from other properties.

What’s the point?

It’s possible and probably likely, there’s much more going on here than just skirting the ‘rules’.

It’s been a mental exercise to engineer a method to keep him without the neighbors being aware; if they do know, without them complaining.

Scaboo has an ‘inside coop’ that consists of a used dog kennel with pine pellet bedding.

He’s on a schedule. Inside the house overnight; then put outside when he seems to be ready (stopped crowing).

If he starts back up, he’s brought in again. That’s the way it’s been for about the past month.

The amount of support received (physical or moral) from family members has been close to zero; more like, below zero.

“You’ll have to get rid of him”

“It’s against the rules”

“I wonder how long you can keep that up”

(bringing him in at night).

These comments have come from family that whether they know it or not, have already identified themselves as casualties.

This is not about the rooster itself.

Rather, it’s about having the mental elasticity to take a situation and make it work.

It’s sort of a practice run for the main event … whatever that’s going to be.

Quick thinking or action will be required.

How’s anyone with a closed mind going to figure out how to secure food, water or anything else when supplies are interrupted; when mental elasticity is the difference between survival and not.

In closing, here’s a brief video of our contraband rooster enjoying a dust bath … with the hens wanting some camera time as well.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Knock Three Times …

Gold, GDX Warning: Breakdown Imminent?

It’s true when price action rebounds off a level, whether support or resistance, that level is confirmed.

However, personal (mental) bias, like the rabid hyperinflation ‘dollar destruction’ gold bulls, collectively have their minds so twisted, every bounce off so called support, is a buying opportunity.

That kind of blindness can set oneself up for (financial) disaster.

Well, we’re about to see if the current bounce was a buying opportunity or harbinger of a “free fall” breakdown.

Price action’s the final say. So, let’s take a look at what its been saying about the latest move.

Un-marked weekly chart of Senior Mining (ETF) Index GDX:

Next, comes the support line and contact points identified:

Now, comes the important part. Each rebound off support has less upward travel than before:

The right-most green arrow (upward travel), may or may not be complete. One fact in favor of completion is the significant amount of resistance around GDX, 33.00.

Price action has spent six weeks transacting in this area. Three weeks above support and now three weeks below.

Positioning:

We’re at the danger point; risk of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, price action does not need to go far to either support or negate a short trade set-up.

With that in mind, the Project Stimulus account is short this sector via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

GDX Update

After The Close

No New Weekly High

GDX price action pushed through the 3-day highs shown in the last update. Even so, on a weekly basis, price action was unable to make a new high.

We see on the chart, a breakdown through support and this week’s test.

After today’s Fed speech, we’ll see if this is all there is for the upside on gold and the miners.

Recall, from a recent J. Bravo update, there aren’t any bears left.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Experiments

Before The Open

Looking At The 3-Day GDX, Chart

As Dr. Elder once said (paraphrasing): ‘There are many ways to make money in the markets … even more ways to lose it.’

The time required to master the basics like support, resistance, accumulation, distribution is up to the individual.

After that however, the experimentation starts: Fibonacci retrace, time sequences, technical forces, multiple time frames and on.

Experimenting with the chart of Senior Gold Miners GDX, shows at this time, a 3-Day chart reveals nuances not seen (so easily) in the daily or weekly.

We’re going to invert the chart to mimic the GDX inverse fund DUST (without the tracking errors) as shown below:

Then comes the mark-up:

All of a sudden, it becomes clear. Inverted GDX has been in a series of springs (up-thrust, non-inverted) and is now pivoting to the upside. That pivot is shown with the green arrows.

Each 3-Day period having a higher low than before.

As detailed in this prior update, GDX is potentially on the verge of ‘free fall’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Pre-market trading has GDX, lower with DUST higher.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

What’s Next For Biotech?

Mid Session

Biotech SPBIO, In A Rally

Ready For Up-Thrust Reversal?

We already have the clue.

Biotech SPBIO, just went into a spring condition and is now in a rally.

From the sage observations of David Weis, we can expect … or at least start to look for, an Up-thrust.

The unmarked daily chart of SPBIO, is below. The charts that follow, show the potential up-thrust area. After that, we have a Fibonacci 23.6%, level added.

Just to add intrigue, September 7th, is 12-days from the August 20th low … well within acceptable range for a Fibonacci 13-Days.

Spring and Up-thrust notations:

Fibonacci retrace level:

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dollar Destruction? Not Yet

Before The Open

‘Dollar Destruction’ To Be Postponed

Hyper-Inflation Not In The Charts

Who looks at the actual chart anyway … so old-school.

However, what that school is telling us, the dollar’s built a solid base for a sustained rally.

Then we have this: Uneducated Economist gives us links in his report on why dollar demand could increase substantially.

If dollars are going up, gold is going down.

At this juncture, there’s still an inverse correlation.

Position Update:

On a separate but related note, the FDA announcement from yesterday was not taken into account with the biotech plan. An error if you will.

The level of malfeasance as detailed in this link was not thought to be possible.

The Project Stimulus account exited the short biotech trade with a small gain as shown below.

More analysis to come on a potential long-term biotech reversal set-up not unlike the dollar.

For now, we’re out.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Market Top, September 7th?

The Day After Labor Day, 1929

The Tuesday after Labor Day 1929, was the the Dow high before the crash.

Empirical data gathered over the years has shown markets tend to reverse just before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Will that apply this time around?

At least three things will happen on Tuesday, September 7th.

Relief assistance‘ runs out. It will be a Fibonacci 13-days from the S&P August 19th low. Tuesday the 7th, is the first market open following a holiday:

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

The Usual Suspects For The Week

No. 1

Hey Dan … ‘Dude, Your Posts Are Getting So Dark’

Not sure what these snowflakes are expecting; Dan is one of the more positive ones.

Maybe they still think they’re going to watch the market and societal collapse from the comforts of their own back yard.

No. 2

School’s In Session: Bring Out The Masks!

This time around, it’s different. Even deep in the heart of the gulag, it looks like there’s an awakening.

This link is from a board meeting in San Diego

No. 3

Just 15-Days To Go

Before the end of speck ‘assistance‘.

That assistance ends September 6th, which is the Monday after Labor Day.

The Monday after Labor Day 1929, was the market peak.

No. 4

One Of Their Own!

You’re part of the ruling class. You were told you’re just going to get ‘saline’.

But then, you spot one of your comrades (that was in line with you) coming down with this

No. 5

In Good Company

Steven Van Metre comes out with his Sunday Night Charts …. and at time stamp 10:54, his conclusion is the same as yesterday’s report.

Gold and the miners ‘on the edge of an abyss’.

No. 6

Defining Moment In History

Jimmy Carter had this image to define is impotent presidency; so too now, we have this image to define an incompetent, not even a presidency.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) About to ‘Free Fall’?

What A ‘Surprise’, If GDX Breaks Down Into A Collapse

Gold and the dollar are still inversely correlated.

The dollar developed a bullish set-up starting around May, of this year.

Since that time, its been in rally.

The last update on the dollar was this one, August 4th. Indeed, the dollar has continued its move higher.

Since we have negative correlation, gold and the miners have moved lower.

Each sector is now at a critical juncture:

A resistance area in the case of UUP and support (blue line) in the case of GDX.

The market has alternated (weekly GDX, above) from choppy overlapping moves, to smooth downward thrusts.

If GDX breaks substantially lower, get ready for cries of ‘manipulation’ and ‘it’s all rigged’.

Possibly more important, such a downdraft may cause an instant change in market sentiment; from ‘risk on’, to ‘risk off’.

In that case, a market’s that’s well positioned to head decisively lower, the fastest, is biotech, SPBIO.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.