Gold Changes Character

Mid Session

Another Bell Rings

Gold (GLD) was on track to continue higher into a potential up-thrust … right up to yesterday.

That’s when the character of price action changed.

Action suddenly had a down day with no buoyancy. That was the clue something else is at work.

Today, we saw the result.

At this juncture, with world events picking up yet again, we probably just entered or are about to enter a deflation impulse.

Summary:

The gold and mining sector continues to be chocked full of delusional bulls and rabid hyper-inflationists.

Just take a cursory look at YouTube sites that continue to ‘stack’. As repeated many times over the past year the ‘hyperinflation’ narrative is just not happening.

Food price increases along with fuel and shipping, are all related to a controlled demolition of the supply chain.

It’s not hyper-inflation.

It really does not take much research effort to figure that part out.

If there is a trade here, we’re going to leave it (not advice, not a recommendation) and just watch to see where the carnage goes.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Real Estate … Slipping Away

Mid Session

‘Frog In The Pot’

Once price action enters back into a previous trading range, the clock starts ticking.

Since IYR’s at the upper bound of the congestion zone, there’s still a possibility it can right itself and pull away to the upside.

Mid Session

During the mid-session just now, price action is pushing slightly higher and testing the underside of the range (upper blue line).

This is normal behavior … and we’re going to wait it out (not advice, not a recommendation).

For IYR to break out to the upside, there would have to be some major demand to launch IYR prices higher; just where would that demand come from?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Plug has been Pulled

Mid Session

92-Years Almost To The Day

Barring any new highs in the S&P, which seems less and less likely, the market has bookended two historic extremes.

September 3rd, 1929, was the peak back then; September 2nd, 2021, is the peak now.

This site has said many times, if we’re doing our job right, whenever the big reversal comes, we’ll already be in position (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, far that has proven to be correct; having gone short via DRV and TZA during the past week.

This down move is still very young. It’s almost imperceptible and could somehow be negated.

However, with each passing day when there’s no attempt or unsuccessful attempts at new highs, downside probability continues to build.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Lower ? … Not Yet

Mid Session

Gold (GLD) Pivoting Higher

The last update on gold (GLD) has us expecting an up-thrust (reversal) condition.

Even though price action immediately pushed away from the resistance area, there’s still a possibility GLD is on track to recover and move higher.

Downward action in GLD has stalled and looks like it’s building energy for an attempted breakout.

If and when we get an up-thrust … that’s the time to expect fireworks in the mining sector.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

The Usual Suspects For The Week

No. 1

Buffett Buys Silver

Maybe if I ask Buffett a really smart question, I’ll be rich like him.

Not even two minutes into this charade, you can see the disgust for the proletariat.

We don’t need input from Bombards Body Language to tell us these ‘elites’ have absolute contempt for the crowd.

No. 2

Endless Wars

No, it’s not successful wars we’re after, it’s endless wars.

The quotes in the attached link (filmed in 2011) are straight out of The Creature From Jekyll Island.

No. 3

People Still Follow Cramer

Similar to No. 1, above, some people never graduate away from the milk bottle.

Dan (time stamp 4:02) gives us his own take on Cramer … complete with actual input form a broker.

No. 4

Rubber Chicken

Rubber chicken at time stamp 4:48.

Slow moving Bassett Hound at time stamp: 7:59

No. 5

“I was the one”

Enemy Chivalry During WWII.

Go ahead; see if you can make it through this presentation without getting a lump in your throat.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Selling At The Top

Late Session

If The Fed’s Doing It, Shouldn’t We?

You don’t want to be left holding the bag.

David at The Money GPS has an excellent update, linked here.

Looks like they really do ring a bell at the top.

However, does this news story (The Fed selling everything) corroborate with price action?

In the case of the Russell 2000 (IWM) above, the answer appears to be yes.

Price action got itself into and up-thrust condition, rolled over, then tested and is now continuing lower.

A short position was opened in IWM (via TZA) during this session with a stop at the TZA day’s low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday’s short on IYR (via DRV) continues to post green and is confirming the overall markets may be peaking and reversing simultaneously.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.


Real Estate (IYR), Reversal?

After The Close

Attempts To Short Abandoned Last April

The last update on real estate (IYR) was at the ‘abandon’ arrow. At that time, the assessment was, even though conditions appeared set for reversal, it just was not happening.

Something else was going on.

It came out weeks later, that ‘something’ was entire subdivisions were being purchased (above asking price) out from under qualified potential homeowners.

Well, has that trend finally exhausted itself?

Last week’s climactic price rise and volume, which is quickly being eroded suggests were at some type of transition.

An initial position in DRV (3X inverse IYR) was opened today as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Pushing below the support level around IYR 107, would help confirm there’s something more going on than just a breakout and test.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Escape From A Sick Society

Late Session

‘Escape Forward’

I’m not a personal fan of Nietzsche.

However, if one disregards his input and focuses on the rest of the presentation, linked here, some of the ideas presented are already in work.

A few (and growing number) of us conceptually understand, ‘normal’ is never coming back.

Some, like Amandha Vollmer have openly discussed implementing the ‘parallel’ society.

This just out from Stew Peters, has his guest (DeAnna Lorraine) suggesting at time stamp 4:50, nurses and doctors that have quit (and there are a lot of them) in protest over not getting injected should start their own healthcare system.

The ‘parallel’ idea is out in the open; possibly gaining steam.

Forming that type of structure needs all the skills of the existing (corrupt) one. Engineers, technicians, skilled craftsman and on.

In that type of system there won’t be any ‘diverse workforce initiatives’. Just imagine, you’ll be hired paid and promoted based on your performance. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Short

Late Session

Two Attempts To Short

Using the prior day’s analysis that a short entry was low risk, the first attempt was long LABD 17.78, tight stop at the prior day’s low of 17.38 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the chart shows, it did not take long to get stopped out and have LABD post a daily low of 17.37.

Immediately after the exit (within seconds), price action began to recover. The behaviour of this action gave the go-ahead to make a second entry.

After the second entry, price never came back. The stop on the position was changed to be the low of the day: 17.37 (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Short Squeeze?

SPBIO Going Straight Up For Two Weeks

The big picture for biotech SPBIO, is above. The monthly chart shows a steady progression higher since 2009.

Stretching the monthly out a bit gives us the next chart:

The two months of reversal back in February – March of this year are clear. Those two bars have yet to be negated. We’re still in a reversal lower until price action pushes back into that range.

Zooming into the monthly bars at the right side highlights a market anomaly; something called ‘the clustering of the closes’.

You can’t see it, unless you’re looking for it. Note how the blue line intersects a good number of the opens and the closes.

This location is an area of resistance. So far, price action can’t get appreciably higher than the resistance (blue line) area.

Drilling even further down to the 2-Day chart and we see the straight up action for the past two weeks … that has now contacted the axis (resistance) line and reversed.

So, was that two weeks a short squeeze?

Typically, once the shorts have covered, there’s not much left holding up the market.

Unless there’s a gap higher above the axis line at the next session, risk of going short at this location is low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.