Panic In The Streets …

Remain Calm. All, Is Well.

All, Is Well !!!

It certainly feels like Animal House, doesn’t it?

A bunch of idiots running around, glued to the mainstream narrative.

However, let’s not digress but rather get to the chief cook and bottle washer at hand.

Moderna (MRNA) and Biotech (IBB).

Biotech: MRNA, IBB

Moderna’s move above resistance (‘Target’ level in this update) seems too fast for up-thrust and reversal.

It could reverse from here.

However, the more likely scenario is the mainstream milks this whole thing all the way to Christmas and beyond.

That brings us to the sector itself, IBB:

We’ll go straight to the marked-up (daily) chart.

It’s starting to look familiar isn’t it?

Spring-to-Up-Thrust … Spring-to-Up-Thrust

But wait … there’s more!

A Fibonacci 21-Days from the most recent IBB, low on November 23rd, puts the date at December 22; The Winter Solstice.

How convenient.

Of course, anything can happen between now and then. At least we have a potential target and scenario.

As with the gold miner’s (GDX) short that’s still on-going (not advice, not a recommendation), we get to see how it all plays out.

Will Biotech, IBB, be in up-thrust (reversal) position, on or around December 22nd?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Random Notes

Special ‘No-Normal’ Edition

No. 1

Dealing With ‘Brain Dead’

If you have to deal with asleep, brain-dead, self-hypnotized, condescending, mainstream news-feeders, here’s a tip.

Remember, it’s not “your opinion”.

Patent numbers, patent descriptions, dates, names, payrolls, money trails, corporations, whistleblower testimonies, irrefutable compilations like this, are not an opinion.

They are fact.

No. 2

No Infrastructure

From time stamp 12:08, to 14:27, in the above link (repeated here), there are 108, players or individuals receiving the benefits of ‘Speck’ protection.

We call it The Speck from Horton Hears A Who … because it’s so small, nobody’s ever found one; not even the Cee Dee Cee or the N ‘EYE’ H. Sorry for the ‘code’.

The majority of those in the compilation are so protected, they won’t ever need another update.

You might say, they’re ‘fully protected’.

We can take that montage and extrapolate it to the rest of the population. Remember this?

It does not take much to figure out, rapidly increasing instability is the way forward.

While there may be an infrastructure bill in name … if workers are not available and supplies restricted or non-existent, there’s no infrastructure.

Admittedly, that’s very oversimplified.

Sure, there may be some projects that get started and have limited progress.

However, after reading this summary of the built-in insanity, one really has to actually be favoring a collapse so these projects don’t get implemented to any large degree.

Bringing us to the next item.

No. 3

Double-Secret-Probation, ‘Omicron’

It would be nice to laugh at stupidity if stupidity wasn’t so dangerous.

The powers are wasting no time … declaring a ‘State of Emergency’ even though nothing has happened.

They openly mock the idiots that still buy into the hype; their contempt, completely out in the open.

Even a working-class Cockney Brit, has got it figured out. It can’t be that hard, can it?

Note at time stamp 2:40, it shows that we may have already had the Epsilon variant. It must have come and gone.

I completely missed it. My bad. 🙂

No. 4

The Sheep … Too Far Gone

A hopeful comment taken at time stamp 4:02, at this link:

Those who have bought in, and voluntarily injected themselves … even if they were lucky enough to get a placebo, will not wake up.

Amadha Vollmer has stated it well when she said, ‘when the truth finally hits, they will lose their minds.’

From a Biblical standpoint, that does not mean we give up on them. Plant the seed but then walk away and continue to prepare.

If by some miracle … because that’s what it would have to be, they do wake up, it’s your opportunity to take the lead and direct their (an your) next steps.

Be prepared … it could happen.

No. 5

So, Now It’s CXVXD-21 ?

You can’t make this up and it’s more insane by the day.

The sheer repetition of the fear narrative, like ever-increasing drug use for the same effect, has got to be wearing off … becoming less effective with each news release.

On top of that, there are literally less people able to buy into the narrative

Reference No 1, above. They have already received full protection; not subject to further updates.

No. 6

Sky High Ammo Prices

Going to the comment sections on YouTube sites or vendor sites, has the typical collection of blowhards saying:

“I refuse to pay these prices. I’m going to wait until they come down”.

It’s possible, at least some of these guys are the same middle-aged, overweight, out-of-shape posers, that like to have useless crap all over their AR.

When the bravest guy in the room is a woman (linked here), it means, that trash hanging off your AR is a bill-board; effectively saying:

‘I’m hiding behind my AR crap and probably a coward’.

Another woman, linked here, has actually decided to use the AR platform.

However, she trains with ‘Iron Sights’ … BAM !!!

Let’s go to this link and time stamp 1:13.

If that’s the future availability of our currently high-priced product, meaning there is none, does it really matter how much it costs now?

Of course, the posers are busy posing.

They won’t matter when it all hits. They’ll still be waiting for prices to come down on something that’s no longer there.

No. 7

S&P, In ‘Spring Position’

Price action penetrated support last week and is set to attempt a rally.

The futures market opened about 90-minutes ago and shows S&P trading up about +0.80%.

That upward bias may also lift the Basic Materials Sector (DJUSBM) and possibly offer a low risk short position via SMN (not advice, not a recommendation)

We’ll be watching.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Basic Materials, Building Blocks

Infrastructure … Not Going To Happen

The infrastructure bill, right along with any kind of sustainable ‘recovery’ is just not in the charts.

Sure, the bill passed into ‘law’, if you can call it that; however, law and action are two different things.

We’ll get into more fundamentals behind why it’s not happening in tomorrow’s Random Notes … to be released later in the day.

One hint on why we’re not getting a major U.S. wide building program, there won’t be the manpower or supplies available … each for their own reasons.

That brings us to the chart of the sector.

DJUSBM

The weekly chart shows how it looks going all the way back to early 2008.

If you did not immediately pick up on the right side’s message, it’s highlighted below … a massive bearish MACD divergence.

The divergence proposes that upside momentum for the sector is all but spent.

Let’s take a look at previous downside action and the current possibility.

Anybody that’s awake will not argue the current situation’s worse than 2007 – 2008.

If that’s the case, and if the market’s still alive at the bottom, DJUSBM could get as low, or lower than 2008 – 2009, levels.

A decline over 80%, is not uncommon for a bear/depression market. The Dow Jones 30, from top-to-bottom, during the Great Depression was around – 84%.

Inverse Fund, SMN

SMN is -2X inverse the DJSUBM.

However, this fund is not like inverse ETFs; SDS, DXD, SOXS, QID, DUST, and so on.

Basic Materials is not ‘popular’. At least, not yet.

That means the fund is illiquid with larger spreads (bid/ask). In addition, it takes a good few minutes after each open for those spreads to calm down and narrow up.

It’s not for the inexperienced.

Summary:

As we’ll get into tomorrow, ‘normal’, is gone.

There’s not going to be ‘normal’ (a personal opinion) in the lifetimes of anyone reading these updates.

That doesn’t mean there are no opportunities.

Basic Materials, DJUSBM, is about to, or already has (potentially) started its downside reversal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

… Cue The ‘Hype’

Right On Schedule … A New ‘Variant’

Seems like just yesterday, we were saying:

“There’s all kinds of nastiness in the guise of ‘new strains’ out there; likely to raise their heads before Christmas and probably after as well.”

Wait, … that really was, yesterday.

So, now we have the ‘Nu variant’.

Get it? A, new variant. 🙂

The ‘Epsilon’ variant (from the idiot in Brave New World) is probably being saved for last … because if anyone’s still believing the hype by that time, it won’t matter … they’ll be fully ‘boosted’.

That doesn’t mean the pros can’t make money off the herd … while there still is a herd.

Which brings us to today’s underside test action of MRNA.

Moderna (MRNA):

Well, that retrace was quick.

First, let’s show yesterday’s weekly chart.

And now, today’s

It’s true that price action is testing the underside.

However, if we go to the daily chart (below), we can see if price action can make it just a bit higher … to the 360 – 380 area, then we have an up-thrust (potential reversal) condition.

The chart looks similar to our gold (GLD) up-thrust target, linked here for reference.

Recall, for that set-up, it took two months for GLD, to penetrate resistance … and then go into a vicious reversal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tech Talk, Moderna (MRNA)

Underside Test

Even though scenes like this one, this one and this one, are now common, the mainstream still seems to be ‘mystified’ as to the cause.

With all that happening as we speak, Moderna (MRNA) is finding itself potentially rising to test the underside of its trend line break.

Moderna (MRNA):

Weekly un-marked chart

Marked up with trendline break

Zoom in, of potential underside test area.

Summary:

Markets like to test … it’s what they do.

Sometimes, as with the gold hysteria, there’s a story to go along with the action. All intended to herd the easily led into the wrong side of the trade.

So, it could be with MRNA.

There’s all kinds of nastiness in the guise of ‘new strains’ out there; likely to raise their heads before Christmas and probably after as well.

These events may coincide with the previous post about biotech possibly heading for retrace and up-thrust.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, At The Danger Point

In More Ways Than One

For now, we’ll discuss only the technical aspects.

We’ll leave the rest of the truth for mainstream news.

Discussed previously, the sector (SPBIO) was left with our assessment that it may reverse higher into a retrace; combined with an up-thrust/reversal.

That was then.

Biotech, SPBIO, Now:

Daily un-marked chart of SPBIO:

Below, a marked-up chart showing penetration and move off support (Spring Condition).

Included, is the 38% retrace level … location for potential test and reversal:

As with the on-going reversal in gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ, we’ll have to see how this plays out.

Unfortunately, as we head into what used to be the regular flu season, those who received ‘protection’, are going to find out they’re not protected at all.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Future’s So Bright …

… I’ve Gotta Raise Rates !

That’s right. The economy’s so good, we’ve got to raise rates.

Well, almost.

First, there’s more aggressive tapering … then we raise rates … honest.

No, this isn’t an MTV video from the ’80s … it’s the Fed life.

The latest update from Steven Van Metre, has comments from the Fed that seem like they’re from another world, another time.

Evidently, the economy’s so strong … so good, that we might taper more aggressively and then … raise rates.

At this point, ‘what difference does it make?’

They’ve probably already cashed-out (like last time) and now stand on the sidelines.

Meanwhile back at the proletariat, we’re deciphering the market’s next moves … Fed press releasees notwithstanding.

Is Gold (GLD) The Black Swan ?

Frist off, there are several YouTuber’s that are providing an excellent service; letting us know the real state of the economy.

They are invaluable; thus, receiving their fair share of hate from those that don’t want to hear, see, or smell, ‘bad news’.

All of them willingly admit, they’re not experts when it comes to the markets … fair enough.

However, in Jerimiah Babe’s latest update, he may have unwittingly revealed a (or the) black swan.

Gold and the gold market.

JB’s offered the anecdote of attempting to purchase more gold at the dealer. For the first time ever, he was limited on the amount available.

From a market standpoint, the public, is all-in.

Even as we speak, gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ, are in a vicious downside reversal.

At this juncture, it looks like an upward test of resistance (discussed yesterday) is nowhere in the cards.

Price action for the most part, is straight down.

Which brings us to the charts.

GLD, Weekly Chart:

Marked up with resistance and the up-thrust reversal.

Zoomed area of the reversal

Personal Opinion:

Because the gold hype by the financial press was so incessant for so long (which by the way, has strangely ‘disappeared’), this reversal may be something that lasts much longer than anyone would expect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Downside Targets:

The weekly GLD chart below has a Fibonacci projection tool overlay.

A 161.8%, projection would take GLD down to 119 – 120.

Are the gold bulls prepared for an extended downside rout in the metals?

Summary:

Early morning food production.

It might not look like it’s connected to the markets but it is.

Market analysis presented on this site, helps steer actions needed to separate from (or reduce reliance on) the system.

Properly executed, trading is one avenue to provide income that’s necessary to eliminate the need for a corporate employer (not advice, not a recommendation).

Market analysis also helps identify what’s likely to come next.

But, I digress.

Getting back to the coop; four eggs a day … equates to over two dozen a week. Reliance on the grocery store (at least for eggs) has effectively been eliminated.

About a year’s worth of feed has been stockpiled.

Let’s put it a little differently; a year’s worth of feed has been ‘stacked’.

Personally, I like gold and silver as much as the next guy.

However, those in charge of this collapse have already stated, food will be used as the leverage weapon.

But hey, we shouldn’t have to worry about any of that, because, ‘The future’s so bright …’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls, Trapped !

Stunned … Unable To Move

It’s not supposed to be this way.

What about all the ‘money printing’ driving the dollar to extinction?

What about all those telling me $3,000/oz, in months, not years.

For today, it’s just not happening.

Adverse moves in gold (GLD) like we have right now, especially after months of incessant hype, puts those who bought into the narrative on the wrong side; stunned, unable to move.

There’s a small chance, this could be a shakeout before going higher. Anything can happen.

However, if we look at the chart of GLD, it’s a grim situation for the bulls.

Gold (GLD)

Daily chart, GLD:

This wasn’t just a one-day push above resistance and then reversal.

GLD, spent a Fibonacci 8-Days struggling to break out before this morning’s collapse.

Stunned bulls may think it’s a buying opportunity. If so, there’s likely to be some kind of underside test of resistance.

However, that’s not guaranteed. Moves like this tend to offer no relief and just grind their way lower.

Positioning:

At this juncture, we’ve got a nasty adverse move; putting the short position (DUST) well in the green (not advice, not a recommendation).

Any upward test of GLD, and the miners, GDX, GDXJ, is likely to reveal new support/resistance boundaries and possibly trend-lines.

If so, we’ll have something to monitor for a potential exit signal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Random Notes

The Usual Suspects For the Week

No. 1

‘Imagine The Hysteria …’

The quote below, taken from the October 14th post:

“If GLD breaks the trend-line, getting back to the 170 – 171, level (up-thrust), imagine the hysteria.” 

Well, at Friday’s close, GLD is currently at 172.61 and reached an up-thrust high (thus far) of 174.67.

Now, a re-cap of the hysteria (most recent first):

Von Greyerz: Gold-O-Mania Is Coming!

Gold Breakout Imminent!

Gold shhh…

Gold Probes Multi-Month Highs

“$3000 In Months, Not Years”

Gold & The Dollar Soar

Gold & Crypto Surge

That’s just within the last eleven days.

All of the above, brings us to the next item.

No. 2

U.S. Inflation. Hardest Hit Categories

The linked article goes on to detail where prices have risen the most … well, almost.

This chart shows the financial press approved categories and respective price increases.

But wait, there’s a category left out.

What about ‘ammunition’. The price of that category is up (depending on source) anywhere from 300% – 1,000%.

You have to wonder why that’s not on the list.

Personal anecdote:

A trip to the local Wal-Mart just yesterday to get mealworms for the hens (local feed store mom & pop has been out for weeks) gave opportunity to go by the sporting goods and the ‘ammo counter’.

The counter’s thirty-foot rack, was stripped bare.

All of it gone except for a few boxes of Federal 22,target, and some 12-guage.

Later in the day, there’s a strange twist while searching for product using this site,

The comments (rating) section have people bragging about how their ammo, is older production.

It’s completely turned upside down. Back in the day, you wanted the freshest stuff available.

Now, because of difficulties finding parts, product and experienced employees that have not been jabbed, quality has apparently declined.

The inference is, if you can prove that your ammo was manufactured during 2019, or before let’s say, you might be able to charge a premium on the secondary market.

Paul Harrell has shown, linked here, that properly stored, ammo will still be viable after 50-years or more.

Which brings us to the next item.

No. 3

Shipbuilder, Backpedals

Turns out, this shipbuilder’s not quite ready to destroy its own business.

However, the damage has (likely) already been done.

Anyone with production experience knows the way to destroy product quality, is to have an on-again, off-again, and then back on-again, production line.

It does not matter the product.

If production can’t be sustained, uninterrupted, for periods at a time, there really is no quality. Too many variables have been introduced.

This is where we are with all product. It may be part of the reason retail sales have spiked.

Get the good stuff now.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver: Leading The Way, Lower

Already Below Resistance

While gold (GLD) is just above its resistance breakout, silver’s not waiting around.

It’s already below its breakout; apparently leading to the downside.

Using ‘boots on the ground’ type reporting from sources like Jerimiah Babe and Dan (I Allegedly), the financial collapse is accelerating.

The metals look like they’re not exempt from financial conditions (deflation); they’re at the cusp of reversal.

Silver (SLV) Daily Chart:

The next chart zooms in on the reversal area.

It’s clear; SLV is now below resistance … a bearish indication.

At some point and if you live long enough (and have a working brain) you realize it’s all about manipulation.

Everything is manipulated.

Separating from that trap is akin to mental bravery; setting you apart from the mindless herd and at times, in opposition to that herd.

Silver (SLV) is down a whopping -53% from its high set over a decade ago in April of 2011. How can we be in inflation or hyperinflation?

That’s to come … maybe.

Right now, silver’s giving us a signal; lower prices ahead.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279