Monthly Archives: June 2021

United Airlines … Signals Sell

June 30, 2021 By in Airlines, Indian Summer, S&P, S&P 500, The Speck, UAL 1 Comment

3:13 p.m., EST

There’s no such thing as corporate ‘leadership’.

At this point, especially after witnessing the ‘lock-step’ positioning of major corporations over the past year, one thing is obvious:

They’re all operating in concert.

The coordinated message is that everything’s getting back on track. No need to worry.

See how ‘normal’ things are? Big companies are even ‘planning’ for the future. Stay calm and take no (preparatory) action.

Indian Summer:

The reality is, just as this link suggests, we’re in an Indian Summer. That is, we’re between two extremes.

The past year can be viewed as the summer heat. Then, we’ve just had a break (advent of fall/winter) with restrictions being lifted … but soon the figurative and literal winter will come.

Think that’s a bit much? Well, let’s just take a look at one item.

The video in the link above, mentions the need for ‘body bags’; that we’ll run out … sounds insane.

Well, here they are … all ready to go.

Which brings us to the markets.

Chart Analysis, UAL:

The long term, Quarterly chart shows the extent of the technical damage.

The 80% drop could be the beginning of a multi year (maybe decades long) decline.

If it was a crash (like lumber futures), it will have the typical crash-like structure.

That is: An initial swift, decisive decline; followed by retracement which then rolls over into a sustained and long term move lower.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500, is hovering at its all-time-highs.

Not only has UAL not made a new all time high (posted way back in December of 2018), the weekly chart shows it’s formed a terminating wedge.

At this point, it’s ‘rolling out’ of that wedge indicating sell or sell short; Not advice, not a recommendation.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Make-A-Wish’ … Tipping Point?

June 29, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Make-A-Wish, SPBIO

12:54 p.m., EST

News Hits Mainstream

Biotech Pivots

Operating with impunity, does have its limits.

However, those fully immersed in their evil, are not aware when sentiment changes.

How can they be?

They don’t have the discernment (a God-given gift), that lets them know when the jig is up.

The statements made by the organization’s CEO listed in the title block, sorry, you’ll have to do your own search, we’re not providing links for what should be obvious reasons, has instantly brought the entire ‘charitable foundation’ schtick under suspicion if not outright exposure.

The visceral response to those statements was immediate.

Complexion of the so called ‘charitable’ industries has forever changed.

Has sentiment for the biotech euthanasia project changed also?

As always, price action is the final arbiter. Anything can happen.

Chart Analysis: Biotech, SPBIO

At this juncture biotech and specifically SPBIO, has pivoted decisively to the downside.

As with yesterday’s update, the daily SPBIO chart is inverted and annotated:

The ‘repeating trendline’ concept that’s been discussed for nearly the entire seven week corrective period, is included above.

This time, it looks like we’ve reached the right-edge.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Obvious Reversal: Biotech

June 28, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, SPBIO 2 Comments

1:53 p.m., EST

SPBIO, & IBB, Reversal

Over the past seven weeks, as the biotech indexes worked their way through a corrective retrace, there were no guarantees we’d get such an obvious reversal.

A market disconnect could have happened at any time (and is still a possibility).

At this juncture with SPBIO, penetrating and rejecting a prior resistance area, we’re likely on the way to much lower levels.

The daily SPBIO is below. The next chart has it inverted with notations added:

Inverted. Notations added:

We see penetration below the blue line support area. This sets up the Wyckoff spring condition (up-thrust, non-inverted).

The last update, showed thrust energy already divergent; set for reversal.

Note:

The criminal behavior within this sector continues to mount by the day.

Operating with impunity.

When, how, or if that breaks out into the open, is the big unknown.

SPBIO, Character Change:

One of the benefits (if you can call it that) of having a position that’s eroding by the day, is that you get very intimate with the behavior of price action.

Consider it an ‘opportunity’ to focus the mind.

The typical behavior of SPBIO (and inverse LABD), is to establish the day’s trading range within the first two hours of the session.

Consider those two hours as the ‘head fake’ as that range is then eroded throughout the rest of the day.

Today’s session has been no different. A wide range established early but here’s the change; There’s been little, to no erosion.

As if on cue, during the third hour of trade, SPBIO attempted to erode the range. Inverse LABD, shown below.

However, that attempt appears to have been rejected:

As of this post, price action can’t get itself (appreciably) back into the early morning’s range. The character of the index has changed.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Deep Dive: Gold Reversal

June 27, 2021 By in GDX, GOLD, Gold Miners, ice-age-farmer, Prechter, The Speck, Van Metre, Wyckoff

Gold Miner’s GDX

Fibonacci Projection

Rule of Alternation

Wyckoff analysis was used to identify the GDX up-thrust, reversal condition.

Nine trading days later, GDX is down a stiff -11.7%, from the analysis location.

It’s down -14.9% from its interim high set on May 19th.

What happens next?

This site offers a different perspective (more thoughtful, perhaps) than ‘stacking’ precious metals as high as possible.

Thoughts such as, major infrastructure disruptions (and more) are likely:

That includes nationwide power outages, food transport interruptions (or cancelled outright) along with massive ‘speck’ injected casualties (estimated past 100,000), see this report.

The very last thing you’ll need in that environment, is a stack of metal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Personal anecdote, skip to GDX Chart, if not interested.

These updates are originating from the North-Central area of Texas (DFW). When the historic cold snap rolled through this past February, the power went out repeatedly.

The first thought was not: “I’m sure glad I have my stack of silver to get me through”

No. The thinking was (in this order):

Food, water (water was second as there was plenty of it just outside as snow), munitions and ‘delivery mechanisms’, cash in case the gas station was operational … which is was not and then lastly, heat.

The location was using natural gas for heating and was available as long as there was power

Precious metals were nowhere on the list … not even considered. They had nothing to do with the situation at hand.

Precious metals come later … after the famine.

GDX Chart:

The original analysis from June 8th, is below:

Subsequent trade action (including the original notes):

Weekly chart showing Fibonacci downside projection to level(s) mentioned frequently by Steven Van Metre.

In the chart above, note the choppy action leading down to the most recent upside pivot (early March). That area expanded below:

If we’re in a reversal to much lower levels, the market tends to alternate.

It was choppy and overlapping action from the highs in August of ’20 to the March ’21, low.

Thus far at the pivot high in late May, its been essentially straight down.

With the planned outages discussed above, precious metals may become (temporarily) irrelevant.

If or when that happens, it may be time to consider a ‘stack’.

Of course, by then, no one will want to buy (and spend their worthless fiat cash) for risk of starving to death. This is how markets work.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Never More Fragile, as Now

June 26, 2021 By in Benavidez, Biotech, Flash Crash 2010, IBB, Jerimiah Babe, LABD, SPBIO, Sydney Watson, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Stretched, Stretched, Stretched

Slightest Dip, Cascading Effect

The last update had what some might consider a hyperbolic statement:

” … a market break anywhere from 20% to 50% (in our view) can happen at any moment.”

Less than an hour after that post, we had this from ZeroHedge.

” …in other words, stocks may be at a record high, but they have also never been more fragile and more sensitive to even a modest drop.”

Of course, nobody’s going to come out and publicly say we could get a ‘disconnect’ that results in a 20% drop or more, overnight.

Remember the Flash Crash of 2010?

In the entire history of the market, that’s never happened before, either.

Biotech Backdrop:

We’ve got empirical and anecdotal evidence pointing to the real objective of the ‘experiment’; now, we’re fortunate enough to have a data analyst doing what the medical establishment used to do.

That is, maintain and present the data.

The analyst at this link, is parsing the government database of adverse reactions. That analysis can be viewed here.

Reviewing the data solidifies the fundamental case even more for biotech implosion (taking down the broad market as well).

Mr. Benavidez estimates: 100,000 – 200,000 already dead in the U.S.

Let’s not forget; nearly half of the states have approved ‘liquefaction‘ of the deceased to be used as ‘fertilizer’. These are facts.

Seems like everything’s well planned … far in advance of current events.

Biotech Technical:

Since the SPBIO, index does not provide volume data, we’ve done a modification.

The SPBIO, weekly chart is below but it’s inverted. The weekly Force Index of leveraged inverse fund LABD, has been added.

On a closing basis, SPBIO (inverted) has penetrated just below support. It’s done so on significantly divergent energy.

Drilling down to the daily, it’s a similar picture; except we see the axis line (now support) more clearly.

Summary:

With the conditions noted above, SPBIO’s in position to pivot. Heading lower while LABD moves higher.

Potential USO Model:

When the big reversal takes hold, conditions may be similar to oil (USO) from July 2014, to the interim bottom of February, 2016.

During that move, the market retraced no more than 23.6%, at any stage of the decline.

However, if you recall, newsletter writers, pundits and YouTubers were putting out their prognostications; get into oil’s ‘big rebound’.

By February 2016, USO’s down a whopping – 81%. The oil market never came back.

Final Notes:

One commenter to a Jerimiah Babe video observed:

‘Most people think the worst is over when it’s not even started.’

That exemplifies the mindset required. This economic and societal decline is going to be a very long ordeal.

The normal at this point, is anything that wasn’t normal before.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Technical Force

June 25, 2021 By in Biotech, Bonds, IBB, LABD, Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, Project Stimulus, SPBIO, USO 1 Comment

2:46 p.m., EST

LABD, Force Index Divergence

Sentiment, Volume, Price

Sentiment can’t be seen on the chart. One can guess but it can’t be measured directly.

Sentiment change comes first.

That change in turn, results in a change of volume, i.e. ‘commitment’.

Then, after commitment dissipates, price is next.

That looks like the current situation with biotech and specifically inverse fund, LABD.

In what may be an idiot or genius move (depending on outcome), the short in biotech SPBIO (via LABD) has been maintained throughout the current down thrust; not advice, not a recommendation.

The reasons for that decision have as many layers as the proverbial onion. Not the least of which, is a market break anywhere from 20% to 50% (in our view) can happen at any moment.

‘Never happened before’, one might say.

Oil futures in their entire history have never gone negative before, either.

Bonds, in their entire history have never been shorted by four-standard deviations before, either.

A world-wide coordinated push to euthanize the entire population has never happened before, either.

Margin debt and valuations have never been higher before, either.

Underlying liquidity has never before been removed to the current extent, either.

So, we each have our own reasons.

The firm’s main account (not the Project Stimulus account) has drawn down about – 13%, on the current short position.

A core position has been maintained but small amounts have been removed and added based on price action.

When the anticipated gain, is high hundreds of percent and maybe above 1,000%, the draw down above, looks acceptable considering the (potential) opportunity.

On to the chart:

The daily chart of LABD, shows both net downward price action and thrust energy are dissipating.

Note the ‘Force Index’ scale has been accentuated to better show the divergence.

We’re looking for price to move back higher to test support/resistance areas.

If or when it does, the plan (as has been from the beginning) is to continue to add LABD until volatility makes it prohibitive.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Deadliest in World History

June 24, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, The Speck

3:37 p.m., EST

Injections, Deadliest Ever

Forced Compliance

Biotech Danger Point

By this time, it’s no secret.

The ‘speck’ injections as we call them, have been proven to be the deadliest in world history.

Even with manipulating data by deleting deaths, delaying updates, pressuring medical professionals not to report, the data at this link paints a stark picture.

For reasons likely to be revealed later, major corporations are ‘requiring’ their employees to comply.

Not only that, in the link above it’s the clients as well. One has to wonder, who are ‘clients’ beneficiaries?

Before we leave the topic and move on to the chart, one of the ‘features’ of the injection, is sterilization.

No more employees. No more clients. No more future clients. Somehow that’s an effective business model.

Finally, a cursory review of the local ‘certified’ financial advisers and their websites has not one word about what’s really going on.

Do these people think by avoiding the truth, somehow they’re going to increase their business?

One major nationwide adviser/broker even has (in print, mind you) that ‘we’re going to have the best recovery ever!’

What are they going to say when there’s a “no bid” market and nobody can get in or out?

Crisis will create opportunity for leadership; at this point, there’s not much if any in the financial sector (i.e. ‘best ever’, above).

When the big melt-down hits, leadership’s not coming from the ranks of the ‘compliant’ or the enforced mediocrity of the ‘fiduciary’.

Therefore, we can all take our cue; like this Irish couple who took it upon themselves, to separate from the crowd and escape quarantine.

With that in mind, on to the markets:

Analysis, Biotech

As we head towards the close with about twenty minutes left, the S&P 500, has posted an all-time high.

Biotech, SPBIO and IBB, are still well below their highs but are nonetheless at a point of instability with today’s action.

As the Hourly chart of LABD shows, we’re at the danger point and in spring condition:

A push back into the range above support, is significantly bullish for LABD and bearish for SPBIO.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dow Theory Sell: Update

June 23, 2021 By in Charles Dow, DIA, Wyckoff

12:51 p.m., EST

Upward Retrace To 38%

Downtrend To Resume?

It’s natural market behavior to rebound after a breakdown low.

Stops are hit; Amateurs sell and sell short. Professionals cover their shorts; go long or look to short again.

It’s what happens next, that’s important.

The market, DIA will likely come back to test the support/resistance boundary (blue line) in the daily chart above.

At this juncture, even though Dow Theory Sell was triggered (not advice, not a recommendation) with DIA closing below support last Friday, from a Wyckoff standpoint, DIA is in spring position.

Spring position; the market’s poised (but not guaranteed) to move higher.

If DIA comes back to test the boundary (typical behavior), there are two outcomes:

No. 1:

The test holds; price reverses and we’re on to potential new highs

No. 2:

The test fails; price re-penetrates the lows and then heads (much) lower.

Adding weight to the second scenario, DIA has already posted a new monthly low. That’s not happened since October last year.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

S&P 500: Trend Break & Test

June 22, 2021 By in S&P, S&P 500, SPY

9:12 a.m., EST

Trend Break Last Friday

Underside Test, In-Process

End Of The Line?

It’s about twenty minutes before the open. SPY, is trading essentially flat.

The daily chart above, shows the up-trend break was last Friday on increased volume.

SPY, has also posted a bearish divergence appearing to show significant weakness; attributed to MACD lines and histogram declining in parallel.

Getting a closer look (below):

Volume increases on the way down and decreases on the way up: Bearish

We also have a terminating wedge:

Yesterday was a test of the underside trend break. Today may continue that test or reverse at the open.

If SPY can somehow get above the trend break, it has a new lease on life.

However, with bonds, the dollar and gold already in reversals, probabilities suggest we’re at the end of the line.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Oil & Gas: Flaring Off?

June 21, 2021 By in DUG, Oil & Gas, XOP

9:47 a.m., EST

Wyckoff Up-Thrust, Reversal

Terminating Wedge

Upward Test

Oil & Gas Sector XOP, is posting an up-thrust, reversal condition in the weekly (above).

XOP is also in a terminating wedge:

Last Thursday and Friday were heavy volume days with Thursday posting a wide price bar (daily chart below):

We know that wide, high-volume bars, tend to get tested. XOP may attempt to post higher today or this week.

Doing so, narrows the range (to the highs) and reduces the risk for going short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.