Monthly Archives: December 2020

Corn Goes Vertical

December 31, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, Bonds, Corn, Food Supply, Genesis 41, IBB, Positions 13 Comments

Ever since the inland hurricane, the ‘Derecho’ of August 10th, it’s never been the same for corn.

Now, it’s going vertical.

The entire U.S. agricultural food supply infrastructure is being systematically dismantled.  Control the food, control the population. Simple.

It seems the ‘preppers’ tend to focus on stockpiling silver and gold.

If your’re getting ready for what’s coming, from a historical perspective, that’s not the place to start.

Going way back …. thousands of years, during the famine in Egypt of Joseph’s time, we have this:

“And Joseph gathered corn as the sand of the sea, very much, until he left numbering; for it was without number”

“And the famine was over all the face of the Earth: and Joseph opened all the storehouses and sold unto the Egyptians: and the famine waxed sore in the land of Egypt.”

“And all countries came unto Joseph for to buy corn; because that the famine was so sore in all lands.”

Gen 41:  Vs.  49, 56, 57, KJV

They paid for the corn first, with gold and silver.  Then they paid with their livestock.  Then they paid by selling themselves into life-long slavery. We can equate that last part (slavery) as getting the vax.

As corn is going vertical, the bond market is signaling its move as well.

Just now, today, TLT is rotating higher.

Yesterday, Steven Van Metre showed a chart (time stamp 10:00) of the speculators beginning to back off their historic short position.

They’ve figured out they’re trapped. Now, they’re trying to sneak out the door without being completely impaled on a sharp bond spike.

The S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, all appear to be holding near their highs.

Biotech (IBB), as reported yesterday, is different.

Something major is brewing below the surface with the biotech deception.  Price action itself is showing it’s the place to be for the short-side.

Further info on biotech’s downside is here and here.

Positions remain unchanged (as of 3:02 p.m. EST).  Stops have been moved; not advice, not a recommendation.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Class Action

December 30, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Positions 1 Comment

Markets press on, new highs. However, biotech (IBB) is losing luster.

It could be just a temporary blip on the road upward.

Or, there could be something else afoot not known to the general public … and possibly not even known to professional speculators and market traders.

The video link below is to an alternate (independent) platform. One among many popping up in response to ‘adjustments’ being made by YouTube.

The video at this link is nearly an hour long.  It’s one of those things that upon viewing the entire presentation, one can never be the same.

 Viewer beware.  For those with short attentions, fast forward to Time Stamp 22:50, for the meat.

Wyckoff stated a century ago ‘the reason for a move is always revealed after the fact’; we might find if IBB reverses from here and does not look back, the link above may ultimately become the ‘reason’ for such a move.

Imagine if this presentation becomes widespread knowledge … where will biotech be then?

Of course, price action is always the final arbiter.  Positions (and stops) remain unchanged.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Crowded Trades

December 29, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, GDX, IBB, LABD, Positions

Gold miner (GDX) bulls and bears have been fighting in a crowded trade since late November.

This morning’s GDX retrace up (and now down) from yesterday is a case in point. 

In such a choppy environment, inverse funds lose market value (downside bias) quickly and trades need to be avoided.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the market, biotech (IBB) has formed a top, reversed, and posted a new weekly low today.

An hourly trend-line has been formed as well (not shown). 

If it holds as (or if) IBB declines past current support (~152 area), that hourly trend is moving lower at just over -96%, annualized.

Maintaining negative trend, with declining momentum on both daily and weekly timeframes is what we’re looking for.

The objective (not advice, not a recommendation) is to move stops (shown below) and maintain the trade until stopped out or trend break.

As of this post (1:03 p.m. EST), the current price of LABD and BIS are listed in the ‘Close’ column. 

The “R-G/L” is from Dr. Van Tharp’s concept of Risk Gain/Loss.

Example:  If $1,000 of capital was “risked” (entry-to-stop) on the LABD, position, that position is now up by 6.83-R, or $6,830.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Massive Market Distortions

December 28, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD

It’s hard to describe how stretched the market really is; how ‘the euphoria is so maximized’, as quoted by David Quintieri of the Money GPS.

His latest report, delves into published articles that contain one market stretched quote after another. 

Perhaps, the most frightening is: ”This does not feel like the top”.

You can find that report at this link.  The quotes listed above and more, start around the 1:40, time stamp.

In the markets as of this post (2:08 p.m. EST), biotech (IBB) continues to erode throughout the session. 

The firm has made one LABD (3X, Inverse) and two BIS (2X, Inverse) entries this session so far. Not advice, not a recommendation.

Note the stop progression on BIS entries.

Positions are below; not advice, not a recommendation:

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Chart Nuances

December 28, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD

It’s been a while since biotech (IBB) was on the radar.

We’re going to look at the thirty-minute chart of 2X Inverse fund BIS, to show the change in character.

The first two oval areas after each up move in BIS (IBB down), was fully retraced. Not only that, the retrace occurred on the same day.

Not so with the last oval, today.

BIS has a changed character.  The thirty-minute bar was not retraced; telling us we’re at the danger point where the risk is least.

Both the weekly and daily MACD indicators show momentum has shifted; stalled (on weekly) and has turned lower on the daily.

As far as shorting the biotech sector, any takers?  It’s not like the other crowded trades; Dow, NASDAQ, S&P, and on.

As this post is being written BIS is edging back slightly to the entry point @ BIS, 22.23.

In so doing, there may be an hourly trend line forming.  If that happens, updates will be forthcoming.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Trade Actions, Early Session

December 28, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, DUG, IBB, LABD, Positions

A brief list of changes:

Exit as planned on DUST. Stop was hit

Trader’s discretionary exit on DUG:  Gain ~ 4.80%

Entered short IBB via LABD (3X inverse) and BIS (2X inverse). Not advice, not a recommendation.

The biotech sector has lost momentum. 

Weekly MACD has diverged and is now flat. Additional analysis to come.

Position table is shown below:

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

GDX, Higher Into Resistance

December 28, 2020 By in DUST, GDX

It’s pre-market and miners GDX, to open higher into resistance.

Doing so will cause exit of position established December 23rd.

There’s nothing wrong with getting stopped out and then re-entering if conditions still warrant a trade.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

AT&T Outage Map

December 27, 2020 By in Bonds, TLT

The last update, posted just hours ago said this:

“The “Christmas Bomb” cut communication lines … which by the way is the very first objective during any battle; cut the enemy’s communications.

Matter of fact; that could be the ‘reason’. A test to see how badly communications were disrupted; how quickly they recovered.“

At time stamp 2:00 in this link, Salty Cracker shows the AT&T outage map; nearly half of the U.S. has been affected.

Next week, the markets could rally on such news. Anything can happen.

However, lack of communication means lack of commerce … for an unknown amount of time.

Downside action would seem more probable.

There’s still one more day before the open on Monday … seems like a long way away.

It’s possible by that time, participants will want the safety of bonds.

Bonds that are already sold-short, the most in history.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dollar Reversal; Ready

December 26, 2020 By in Dollar, DUG, DUST, Positions, UUP 13 Comments

The downward thrusts in the dollar have run their course. 

The weekly chart of UUP, shows successive narrowing of distance traveled to the downside.

The bears may have reached exhaustion at the same time MACD shows a bullish divergence.

Couple that with extreme shorting from the speculators; the trap is set, ready to close.

From a technical perspective, note last week’s price action was inside and at the top of the price range from the week prior. 

Looking at the week before that, we see price action was inside but at the bottom of the range of the week prior.

These are subtle clues; there’s a change in character.

As mentioned in previous updates, it’s all happening during holiday weeks when everyone (almost everyone) is distracted.

No matter what happens on the political side, it’s likely to be chaos.  February, is setting up to be very different from now.

We’re using Livermore’s strategic approach to the markets.  That is, figure out what’s going to happen in a big way … then get in position.

Built into that approach is recognition there will be market outages, trading halts, communication interruptions and natural disasters.

The one thing that may separate this site from others, these (potential) events are taken into account.

Seismic activity is picking up in a big way right along with volcanic eruptions.  A major eruption that will block the sun and kill-off global harvests or planting, may be in the works

The “Christmas Bomb” cut communication lines … which by the way is the very first objective during any battle; cut the enemy’s communications.

Matter of fact; that could be the ‘reason’. A test to see how badly communications were disrupted; how quickly they recovered.

Continuing on with potential disruptive events; There were broker outages on November 9th, when the market opened sharply higher. 

If it happens on the way up, it will happen on the way down.

Cyber attack has already been stated as the next gala event the elite have planned. 

There’s not one market analysis site known to this firm addressing those potentials or any others. 

In that sense, The Danger Point, is unique.

Obviously, there are no guarantees.  Anything can happen.  If one wants to day-trade, go ahead but we’re not interested.

When or if all this (or a variant of it) happens simultaneously, the general pubic is going to be stunned.

It’s possible they will see their investment accounts wiped out in a matter of weeks.

The positions remain unchanged and listed below.  The look is different as it’s taken from the firm’s own trade spreadsheet. Absolutely not advice and not a recommendation.

Note the initial stop followed by the current stop.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Miners (GDX) Wave 3, Down

December 25, 2020 By in DUST, GDX

Senior Miner’s action, is counter-trend into resistance at ~ 36.20.

It was also, as the day prior, inside the bar from Tuesday, the 22nd.

Markets test wide, high volume areas.  It’s what they do and it’s happening now with GDX.

The other thing happening, is a possible completion of the ‘a-b-c’ counter trend action before heading lower in Wave 3.

Wave terminology is taken from “Elliott Wave” theory. 

From empirical observation, about the only time Elliott Wave is of any use, is when markets are highly emotional.

Emotional markets generate clear waves and we may be seeing that now with GDX.

As shown on the daily chart, Wave 3 projects to GDX ~ 17.35, which is a near -52% drop from current levels.

A significant upward push past the 36.20 resistance area would indicate a longer duration move to a 50% retrace.

With current GDX weakness, bonds reversing and dollar; with the ‘dumb money’ all-in, the most in history, probabilities favor downside action.

From a human interest standpoint, it’s unfortunate that so many are so ignorant about so many things.

However, the information is there to be had.  We have Steven Van Metre, Sajad, J. Bravo, this site, and many others with good analysis.

Of course, one has to pull themselves away from the propaganda and actually do some work and think … which seems to be a very foreign concept for the masses, the “retail investor.”

Soft-times are over. Hard-times ahead.

Those who have poured their heart out in attempts to wake up their relatives and friends, collectively, are tired of the process.

So, this site presses on, providing decades of experience having tens-of-thousands of hours of screen time, at no charge.

It’s not unreasonable to think, providing market truth may become illegal (or too expensive) at some point very soon.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.