Even in his trading video, the late David Weis remarks … ‘I have a preference for down markets …’
Profits come nearly twice as fast and the bottom is easier to detect.
With that in mind, the daily chart of inverse biotech fund LABD, has been noted showing both emotions:
Extreme fear shows up as spikes at the trend line. Also noticeable, the spikes are widely spaced.
Greed on the other hand, is spaced closer and harder to detect. Remember, we’re looking at the inverse (LABD); fear and greed locations are swapped.
Moving on to the set-up, the Wyckoff spring:
Considering the current situation … i.e. valuations, margin debt, retail participation extremes, the above forecast is a modest one.
A potential doubling in value (measured move).
The expectation is for LABD to contact the upper trading range somewhere around 27.50 (not advice, not a recommendation).
If it does and then breaks to the upside, a standard measured move (trading range distance, magenta lines) would target the 40-area.
At this juncture, the market (SPBIO) is giving no overt indication of imminent collapse.
This is how markets work.
If we do get the expected wipeout, be prepared for the usual suspects to come out and say ‘No one saw it coming.’
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Time and technical have come together; indicating potential downside collapse in biotech.
Collapse potential is immense and has been for years.
Fibonacci 55 days after the 2/10/21, highs, biotech (SPBIO), pivots decisively lower.
Of all the major indices, biotech on a percentage basis, is the downside leader.
Rightly so.
Fundamentally, it’s poised to disintegrate with its illegal, Mengele style campaign of medical experimentation.
Who knows if that full disclosure will happen.
The ‘controllers’, the oligarchs, may come up with some other mechanism to usurp the media, the internet and keep it all under wraps.
However, it looks like the tide’s turning.
Remember, the market leads the news; not the other way around.
If biotech goes into its well deserved collapse, downside action itself will be the catalyst for exposure.
For now, SPBIO is pivoting lower; LABD higher.
The daily chart of LABD shows the Fibonacci time relationship. From low to low; Fibonacci 55 days.
Yesterday, the 28th, was Day 55.
Today, LABD has already posted a new daily high … weighting probability to more upside (SPBIO, lower).
The next chart has the potential trading channel.
It looks aggressive.
However, the market itself has defined the trend.
Shown, in pervious updates, this trend angle has been repeated at least four times from March 5th, LABD high, to yesterday’s low.
It’s no guarantee. We’ll let subsequent price action confirm or negate the right side trend.
As of this post, LABD continues to push aggressively higher.
Our ‘project’ has an open position in LABD.
Without revealing specifics of that position (discussed previously), it’s represented in the table below:
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s mid-session; Amgen (AMGN) is down 7.6%, after a poor earnings report.
The last update on AMGN, linked here, had this to say:
AMGN peaked three days later.
The chart below shows it was a Fibonacci 34-days from the 3/4/21 low, to the 4/21/21, high.
On the fundamental side, we have this explanation for the breakdown.
Missing from the earnings report, not only is customer traffic less this past quarter, it’s going to get (if our research is accurate) a whole lot less as customers literally die-off en masse.
Moving on to biotech SPBIO and 3X inverse, LABD:
As shown in a prior update, LABD has repeating trendline characteristics.
Hourly chart of LABD, below:
We’re still very early at the right side of price action to identify a trend.
However, it’s good to know what LABD ‘likes’ and expect that behavior again.
The daily chart is updated with the Fibonacci 34-day time-frame discussed previously. We’re still within acceptable time error for a potential channel.
If LABD does not reverse significantly higher from here, that potential channel will likely be negated.
Summary:
Linked here, is an article just out on ZeroHedge. It discusses the ‘complacency’ of the market and how it’s ready for a long lasting reversal.
Buried within the report (and claiming ‘fair use’ to quote) we have this nugget:
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Whether or not we’re in the times of the mark (and whether the speck protection is the mark) is of course, debatable.
However, with even a cursory look around, we can see the great deception and the great falling away.
Personally, I presented years ago to family members, that ‘the church’ has become so corrupt, when the time comes, they’ll be the ones distributing the mark.
There’s literally going to be hell to pay for those complicit in this evil.
In a very small way, this site’s doing its part to separate from the complicit; find and walk the narrow path; get the word out.
Back to biotech: Technical and fundamental:
Fundamental:
Obviously, the case against biotech continues to build.
There’s now a site that’s been created to track and document speck related information.
Some of the doctors referenced yesterday (time stamp: 13:32), have started a database cataloguing adverse reactions. Nobody else is doing it. Certainly not big pharma.
LABD (3X inverse SPBIO) downside thrust energy has eroded significantly.
That’s in addition to the largest hourly upward thrust energy spike for LABD since before June 17th, of last year.
Project Stimulus:
Mentioned yesterday, the format of the updates are being changed.
In a cue taken from Dr. Elder about discussing open trades (i.e. not to), at this point, only closed trades will be discussed in the project.
By presenting specific (time, entry, stop, etc.) details on a market action and/or position, that in itself will affect the outcome.
Any engineers reading this will need no further explanation. For more info reference this link.
We’ll leave it with … there’s an open position in LABD. Detail of that position will be discussed when it’s closed.
Thank you,
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Inverse fund LABD breaks out from a wedge pattern (to the downside) on reduced thrust energy.
Has this downside (upside for biotech SPBIO) reached exhaustion?
The 2-Hour chart above shows drastically reduced thrust (volume-price) energy to the downside. In addition, a wedge is typically the last formation at the end of a move.
Price action is the final arbiter. We won’t know if SPBIO will resume its downtrend (LABD higher) until there’s a definitive reversal.
Early action stopped out the ‘project’ position with a small profit as shown in the table:
We’re going to make changes on how the trades in the project are shown; more on that later.
Fundamentals:
The speck injection horror show continues with this 1-hour, 20-minute meeting of internationally acclaimed medical physicians.
You’ll never seem them on the mainstream.
The bottom line is those who have received the speck protection are a threat to the well-being of everyone else.
Some of the physicals have discussed potential action such as quarantine (or visual identification) of those who have received this so-called protection.
That’s right, it’s the people who have subjected themselves to the gene altering therapy that are now the potential threat.
Possible remedial actions are discussed. The video is a must see.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The last update contained the following statement:
“Such a shallow retrace is rare. More typical is at least a 38.2%, level being tested before price reverses and heads lower. “
Back in the days of my engineering work (see About), when making a statement or conclusion, other engineers (or science professionals) would immediately expect some kind of proof or supporting documentation.
It’s just the way their brains worked; it’s somewhat an implied (unspoken) requirement of the industry and a good thing as well.
A good engineering team (along with technicians) functioned more like a select military unit than a civilian office.
Very heady stuff; especially if you’re on a major project like aircraft flight test and certification.
So, after observing and working thirty-plus years of price action, the empirical observation of 38.2%, retrace being more common than 23.6%, had become my own mental note. Filed away with the other mental notes of price action.
That note’s easily supported … even on the fly as we’ll see below.
We have three charts of equities in the silver/gold mining sector that are currently all in a retrace.
Two of those went straight to 38.2%, while one of them hit 23.6%, first and then went on to 38.2%.
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) retraces to 38.2% and stalls.
Seabridge Gold (SA) retraces to 38.2% and stalls.
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) retraces first to 23.6%, and then moves on to 38.2% … and stalls.
Reading price action is partially an art-form and partially a science. The one thing that can’t (ever) be leap-frogged is experience.
Dr. Elder said it himself when he said ‘trading is an old man’s game’.
If you don’t have (but want) the experience, it’s best to get started now. Start racking up the hours … days … weeks and years.
Market Summary:
Steven Van Meter in this update (time stamp 1:39) shows the Rydex Bull/Bear ratio (courtesy of northmantrader.com). That indicator, along with what seems like everything else, is at a never before extreme.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Technical conditions have come together in biotech (SPBIO), indicating we’re at the danger point.
At this juncture, risk is least for short positioning.
Price action can go either way. However, the cost of being wrong (stop being hit) has been minimized.
Supporting Data:
This past week saw the biotech index retrace to a Fibonacci 23.6%, level and stall. Yesterday’s action was in a narrow range; potentially testing for more upside.
That (upside) didn’t happen.
Such a shallow retrace is rare. More typical is at least a 38.2%, level being tested before price reverses and heads lower.
If the index heads lower from here, that shallow retrace points to significant (major) weakness.
The daily of SPBIO is below with the 23.6% shown:
We’re going the compress the time-scale and invert the chart. Note the Fibonacci time correlation between price spikes:
Taking those 34-days and having the market itself define what’s important, it’s possible we have a trading channel as shown:
Prior updates have also shown SPBIO got into up-thrust (reversal) condition as it tested the retrace level.
Yesterday’s action (narrow range, no new daily high) was consistent with that assessment.
Additional Fundamentals:
A significant, immense, fundamental bearish case has already been built for biotech.
As Reiner Fuellmich put it, he’s working to bring ‘crimes against humanity’ lawsuits to those who are complicit in the largest scam and potential genocide in world history.
If the numbers can be believed (even if they’re wrong, they’re huge) nearly 1-Billion people have been injected.
Of course, not everyone in the sector is complicit.
Even so, years ago (July 2015) when biotech reached a major high, David Stockman analyzed the sector.
He concluded the fundamentals were so bad, the entire sector could be summed up as ‘two trillion dollars of bottled air’.
We’ll have to figure not much has changed and/or, it’s probably worse.
Meanwhile, the insanity keeps piling up.
This just out a couple of days ago; a story about mixing the speck injections together. Just like you would do with a cake recipe. What could go wrong … unless it’s planned that way.
Conclusion:
We’ll know pretty quickly next week if we’re at the inflection point. The expectation is for lower action in SPBIO.
The LABD (3X inverse SPBIO) stop is tight and in the market. There have been no position changes since the last ‘project update‘ (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
All of the above provides the backdrop for biotech.
It’s interesting (then again, not really) how this sector’s nascent bear market’s being ignored by the financial press.
Instead of a breakout to the downside (as expected), yesterday the sector SPBIO, decided to test the 23.6%, retrace area.
Today’s early session was spent testing (to the upside) the resistance area.
Price action is now tentatively reversing; about to head lower again.
The hourly chart of LABD (3X inverse SPBIO) shows yesterday’s exit (well past the stop) and re-entry of the short position; not advice, not a recommendation.
For reasons that may be covered later, the stop was not in the market at the time.
In addition, there was a trading platform lock-up (on the broker’s side) at exit and re-entry. A series of amateur-like errors all around.
It’s just a reminder to all; when the market turns lower in earnest, brokers and their trade platforms may (probably will) become inoperative.
The whole event resulted in a significant ding to our ‘project account’
How quickly can this recover … we’ll see.
Below, we have the hourly chart again … but noted with what looks like a nascent trend.
That trend line was copied and re-positioned over prior LABD moves.
Note how this market repeats its characteristics. This angle of trend line has happened three times in the past month.
We’re back in position. The chart has been updated and the stop (now in the market, GTC) listed at 20.96 (above break-even):
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Amandha Vollmer gives an excellent update on what was, what is, and what’s coming.
“They use the same playbook over and over again. This is what’s so stunning to me. If you have any semblance of research ability … this is all a lie. The cull is still coming.” (time stamp 1:05:15)
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The government’s own data is used to show last year’s ‘speck’ deaths were no more than seen with the regular flu.
It’s an excellent report. The data can’t be argued any other way.
There’s been no discernable change from one year to the next.
Case closed.
However, for those of us that are awake, it might not matter anymore. The damage has already been done.
Note: The following is based on current research thus far and is not medical advice.
On top of what’s already known for sure (i.e. Cytokine storm), we now have initial reports or rumors of upset menstrual cycles in females that have not received speck protection.
That’s right, the fact they’re in proximity to the so called protected is reportedly changing their own cycles. More as it becomes known.
Before we get to the markets … the article in the link above for ‘cytokine’, is beyond absurd.
As reported here, speck injection debilitates (forever, via modified DNA) your own immune system.
That sets the body up for self-attack when a new pathogen is encountered but here’s the kicker:
In the article, it effectively says, ‘we have a drug for that!!!‘
One can only hope we’re in the beginning stages of exposure, implosion and controlled demolition of an industry that’s so deserving.
Just in case, let’s not hold our breath.
Market Analysis:
Inverse biotech fund LABD (3X inverse SPBIO) looks like it may be pivoting and/or forming a new trend line.
Reported in this post, LABD has been trending higher at about 820%, annualized.
That chart is below:
Today’s action could be downward testing before rotating higher.
Notice the oscillations getting shorter with downside progress on each, shorter as well.
From a thrust energy standpoint, the latest move (lower) is showing weakness.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 