Monthly Archives: November 2023

UNG … Target Lows, Reversing

November 30, 2023 By in Natural Gas, Positions, UNG, UNG-23-07

Price Capitulation?

Since early October, the Nat-Gas longs have been absolutely bludgeoned.

UNG, went from a high of UNG 7.98, to today’s low of UNG 5.44, a – 32%, decline (almost, ’33’) in just a Fibonacci 8-Weeks.

Now, UNG may have capitulated.

When looking at the Nat-Gas Jan-24 futures NGF24, (hourly chart) we see a large volume spike near Tuesday’s low and today’s.

Massive volume spikes, typically represent capitulation.

The (weak) longs have sold out.

Nat-Gas: The Set-Up

The work has already been done here, here, and here on the potential opportunity for a long position in Nat-Gas.

With that said, as UNG hit the ‘5.55’ target and then declined slightly, an initial position was opened at UNG 5.4999 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nat-Gas-UNG, Daily

Price action hovers near the ‘5.55’ target for three days and now appears to be reversing.

As this post is being created (11:55 a.m., EST) UNG appears to be moving away from the session lows.

Positioning

Trade entry as shown @ UNG 5.4999 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade is labeled as UNG-23-07

Hard Stop is TBD but will most likely be the session low @ UNG 5.44 for a ‘risk’ of 0.06-pts/share.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

What To Expect … For Biotech

November 25, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-14, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI

When The ‘Thrust’ Shortens

The balls clicking away on a Newton’s Cradle, will eventually come to rest; so, it is with markets and reversals.

Price action moving in one direction will eventually stop, then reverse.

The ‘how’ and ‘when’ of that action, is what we want to know.

Years ago, Wyckoff observed, reversals were likely when price action began to have a ‘shortening of the thrust’.

We can see that in the chart of inverse biotech fund LABD.

Biotech 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, Hourly

Friday’s action posted a new LABD low of 0.01-pts, corresponding to new XBI high, of 0.02-pts.

From a shorter thrust perspective, we’re looking for net downside progress, not overall distance.

Looking at the chart, it’s reasonable to expect biotech SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI to decline in the coming sessions with leveraged inverse fund LABD, rising accordingly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Those monitoring this series on trading the sector, have been privy to the actions taken by one speculator to position (and re-position) short via LABD.

With the understanding, anything can happen, I have an open short via LABD, noted as LABD-23-14.

Hard Stop is last Friday’s low of LABD 17.61, with Soft Stop, discretionary, near LABD 18.00 – 18.09 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Bump & Run?

November 24, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-13, LABD-23-14, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Posting A Slight New High … And Then?

Is biotech price action nerve-wracking indecision, or just the normal process of clearing out weak hands?

First, The Housekeeping:

Short trade, LABD-23-13 stopped out @ LABD 18.40 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade was re-opened as LABD-23-14, with entry @ LABD 18.28, Hard Stop @ the session low, currently LABD 17.61 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Did we just have a double bottom?

Biotech 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, Hourly

This is how it looks as of 12:00 p.m., EST.

Right now, LABD is hanging slightly below the trading range (blue lines).

If price action manages to re-enter that range, it adds weight to a sustained reversal case.

Positioning

As noted, a new short position was opened at a lower LABD entry; LABD-23-14.

If we get continued downside action in LABD during this session (upside in XBI, SPBIO, $SPSIBI), then a discretionary exit could be made regardless of stop location (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Counting’ … So, Old School

November 23, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

If Nobody’s Doing It …

The Fibonacci count may be something, it may be nothing.

However, if nobody’s doing it, then probabilities for success could increase.

We’ll find out soon enough, maybe tomorrow.

The set-up criteria for biotech are here, here and here.

Now, biotech is at The Danger Point®, where risk of being wrong on a short position, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, ETF, Daily

From the beginning of the potential trading channel, to the XBI high this past Monday, is a Fibonacci 89 (+1) Days.

Note, there were three days in succession, July 17 – 19, 2023, at essentially the same high; indicating the Fib count (at 11/20/23) could be 89(+1), 89, or 89(-1).

The channel lines are self-explanatory; note the symmetry.

Positioning

As noted previously, there’s an open short, LABD-23-13, with Hard Stop @ LABD 18.40, yesterday’s session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop is tight (similar to this trade), so we’ll see.

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … New Lows

November 22, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-13, Natural Gas, Positions, SPBIO, UNG, XBI 1 Comment

The Longs, Getting Crushed … For Now

The premise for a Nat-Gas (long) trade has not gone away.

The fact this market (UNG) is beating the longs senseless, is a potential indicator in itself.

Evidence continues to mount, uninterrupted access to anything is a luxury; one is prudent to consider the potential effects of supply disruption.

For Nat-Gas UNG, there’s more to the story; it’s following a Fibonacci projection as we’ll see below.

Nat-Gas UNG Daily, Fibonacci Projection

If the projection holds, next lower level is UNG 5.55 area.

As far as where Nat-Gas goes from here, anything can happen; it could even go negative just like the crude futures did back in April of 2020.

Positioning

Nat-Gas: There are no positions in UNG at this point (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, if UNG does decline to the 5.55 area, just the ‘value’ itself will be enticing.

Biotech: While the 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, posted a new daily low (just after the open), SPBIO, $SPSIBI, indices and the XBI, ETF have not yet posted new daily highs (which would have negated the short trade).

This in a nutshell, is what makes shorting the market with a highly leveraged inverse fund (and doing it effectively) a challenge at times.

The short position LABD-23-13, has been maintained with a new Hard Stop @ LABD 18.40 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Turnaround Tuesday?

November 21, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, Real Estate, SLV, SPBIO, SRS-23-04, XBI, zsl, ZSL-23-01 1 Comment

Possible Reversal During The Holiday Week

While no-one’s looking, markets tend to reverse.

Typically, that happens before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Perhaps, the most famous of these was the day after Labor Day Weekend, September 3rd, 1929, the all-time high up to that point.

Adding substance to the assertion, the all-time high (thus far) for the S&P 500, was January 4th, 2022, with the closing high the day before.

So, here we are in the midst of the Thanksgiving holiday week. Is the market going to reverse?

Biotech SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI, Daily

The November 3rd, update showed the target area for biotech ($SPSIBI).

Price action decisively penetrated that area yesterday and then immediately started to retrace.

As of this post (10:12 a.m., EST), price action has printed a new daily low.

Positioning

As stated in this update, the coming week was likely to see adjustments to open short positions.

The Real Estate (SRS-23-04) and Silver (ZSL-23-01) shorts have been closed, with the biotech (LABD-23-13) position increased (not advice, not a recommendation.

The Hard Stop for LABD-23-13, is LABD 17.62 but will likely be moved to the session low, currently LABD 18.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Going Short on ‘Corrective Waves’

November 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, SLV, SPBIO, SRS, SRS-23-04, XBI, ZeroHedge, zsl, ZSL-23-01 2 Comments

All The Same ‘Look’

Did we just have the largest bull trap in market history?

Now, after the bulls (may) have been caught off-guard, we have this; the specter of ‘deflation‘ and demand destruction.

Last Tuesday’s CPI report provided a backdrop for the continued squeeze higher.

Over the past several weeks, at least three markets have developed the same (bearish) ‘look’.

They’re posting corrective ‘a-b-c’ price action, going against the main trend.

SLV, IYR & XBI, Weekly

Take a look, all similar in their formation.

Positioning

As of the close on Friday, I have positioned short in all three markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

The IYR short was initiated this past Wednesday, the Silver short on Thursday, then just minutes before the close on Friday, the biotech short.

Trades are labeled as SRS-23-04, ZSL-23-01, LABD-23-13

Next Steps

The coming week is likely to see one, or a variation of the following: all trades stopped out, one or two trades with discretionary exit, then followed by potential concentration on the best candidate.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Upside Breakout

November 16, 2023 By in Gold & Silver, Positions, SLV, UNG, UNG-23-05, zsl, ZSL-23-01 1 Comment

Above Resistance, In (Potential) Trouble

So, Tuesday, the shorts were carried out on stretchers.

No matter the sharp upward spike, short covering has not changed the tsunami; the ‘liquidity crisis‘.

Basically, there’s not enough cash to go around, not enough in a big way.

Is it possible, in the coming year, there will be huge demand for cash … fiat cash?

With that backdrop we have silver (SLV) making lower highs and lower lows.

Silver SLV, Daily

The chart shows a breakout above resistance. The question is, can it hold?

With price action where it is, just above resistance, SLV is at The Danger Point®

If it can’t push materially higher from here, it’s at risk of reversal.

Positioning

Silver:

With the above conditions and potential for downside, a short position was opened via Leveraged Inverse Fund ZSL

Entry at ZSL 18.18 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Hard Stop is TBD but will likely be the session low @ ZSL 18.04.

Trade is, ZSL-23-01

Natural Gas:

Trade UNG-23-05, was stopped out this session at UNG 6.44 for a minor profit of 0.10-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas & Real Estate

November 14, 2023 By in IYR, Natural Gas, Positions, Real Estate, SRS, SRS-23-03, UNG, UNG-23-05

Stopped-Out

Sometimes you feel like kicking the computer.

In a way, today is, and is not, that day.

The IYR short, SRS-23-03, was stopped-out for a loss of 0.32-pts, about – 1.68%.

Not too bad, but not the desired outcome (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post (2:10 p.m., EST), the UNG trade (UNG-23-05) is testing its reversal, covered in this update.

Nat-Gas, UNG, Daily

Coming back to test a reversal as shown above, is normal market behavior. One just has to wait for the market to work itself out.

Positioning

The initial position UNG-23-05, remains intact with a hard Stop at 6.29 (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, after today’s session, that stop is likely to be moved to the day’s low; currently UNG 6.43 (not advice, not a recommendation.

Any further downside testing after today points probability to a trade failure.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate’s Massive Channel

November 11, 2023 By in IYR, Livermore, Positions, Real Estate, SRS, SRS-23-03

Trading Channel, A ‘Mile-Wide’

We all know something’s coming; we just don’t know what.

A century ago, Livermore said, ‘surprises typically come in the direction of trend’.

Back in August, this update said if certain conditions were met (trend breakdown), then real estate has ‘enormous downside potential’.

Since then, events have unfolded to increase the probability of downside for IYR (not advice, not a recommendation).

The weekly chart of IYR spells it out. We’re in a (potential) massive downside trading channel.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

From the left side low (October 2022), to the right-side test two weeks ago, is Fibonacci 55 weeks, plus one week; well within an acceptable margin of error for timing.

Anything can happen and IYR could somehow power higher into more testing or a channel breakout.

Until then, positioning in this sector remains as follows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

The current short position via Leveraged Inverse Fund SRS, is identified as SRS-23-03.

The initial entry was documented here and here.

Hard Stop is SRS 19.25, with a Soft Stop (discretionary) at SRS 19.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of Friday’s close, initial position profit is about + 5.7%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279