SOXX … Capitulation, and Kick-Off

March 6, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Semiconductors, SOXX Leave a comment

What, Was That?

The semiconductor SOXX, ETF just had its largest ever, weekly downward thrust energy.

The last time it got close, was the downside ‘capitulation’ back in early April, last year.

Other than those two events, there’s never been a similar extreme going all the way back to July of 2001.

Semiconductors ETF, SOXX, Weekly

As the note says, it’s unknown if this is an actual kick-off to a sustained downside.

With such an historic print lower, ‘normal’ market behavior is for some kind of upside testing next week (not advice, not a recommendation).

Recall, in the various Ed Dowd interviews, his comments to the effect:

‘When this thing (A.I. mania) starts to unravel, it’s going to happen quickly’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike at Resistance

March 5, 2026 By in CRWD, Software, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 2 Comments

They Sell … Wall Street Buys

The earnings release tells an interesting story, link here.

After all’s said-and-done, CRWD still has a negative P/E.

Analysists are optimistic, while the insiders sell millions-worth (not advice, not a recommendation).

A push above resistance (blue line), puts CRWD in Wyckoff Up-Thrust position.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver: ‘By The Numbers’

March 4, 2026 By in Gold & Silver, Silver Collapse, SLV Leave a comment

An Objective Look

Putting aside the YouTube ‘silver to the moon’ hype, ‘dollar destruction’, and ‘economic collapse’ narratives, along with every other form of hysteria or mania du jour, we’re going to try something novel; like just looking at the chart of silver (SLV), itself.

Silver Tracking ETF, SLV: Weekly

There it is.

The last top and reversal, kicked off a bear market lasting about nine-years.

This time around, downward thrust pressure (Force Index) is more than double that of the previous reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s interesting, we don’t hear any more stories about silver bullion being flown to the LME.

That’s because the last such flight was (reportedly) way back in October, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Targeting, ‘Capital One’

March 3, 2026 By in Banking, COF, Financial Sector, XLF Leave a comment

Another (potential) Short

If you missed-out on shorting Capital One at the all-time highs, another opportunity may be on the horizon.

From all-time highs to recent lows, COF, is down by, 27.78%.

Looking at the chart, there appears to be potential for a minor rally (not advice, not a recommendation).

Any push above resistance (blue line), puts COF in up-thrust position.

Note the 38.2%, retrace level in magenta.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX: Reversal & Retrace (so far)

March 2, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, SOXX Leave a comment

What’s Next?

The price segment at left, shows the SOXX reversing from all-time highs, lower into minor support, then retrace.

That move is in line with the Nvidia reversal on its earnings release.

As we’ve heard many times (Ed Dowd, Ox Talks and others), just the hint of slowing sales may be enough to kick off a sustained downside move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow is ‘Day 5’ from all-time highs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Software Squeeze?

March 1, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, IGV, Software 2 Comments

Nascent Reversal

BARRON’S is reporting, the software sector is ready for a possible short-squeeze.

The chart shows penetration of support into a spring condition followed by a slight rebound higher and potential ‘test’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

MongoDB, Monday

February 28, 2026 By in MDB Leave a comment

Anything Can Happen

MongoDB, is scheduled to report earnings on Monday, before or after the close (depending on source).

At this link, the P/E is reported as negative 402.

What could go wrong?

When looking at the chart, MDB has rebounded from support, in a ‘spring’ condition.

MongoDB, MDB, Weekly

As noted, the past three earnings releases (blue arrows) have resulted in a sharp move higher.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AIG … Higher, New Target

February 27, 2026 By in AIG, AIG-26-01, Ox Talks, Spring-to-Up-Thrust Leave a comment

A Familiar Scene

AIG, did not reverse as anticipated, link here.

Short position, AIG-26-01, was closed out with a tiny loss.

There are fundamentals a-plenty, link here, to surmise that AIG’s on borrowed time (not advice, not a recommendation).

From the chart, it’s been five successive weekly highs, and higher lows.

With the knowledge a reversal can happen at any time, looking at the chart with its ‘spring’ condition, what’s the next (most likely) target?

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Breakdown

February 26, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Is This It?

Is the A.I. story, over?

As Ox Talks says here, the never-ending, upward move on any kind of news, may finally be at an end (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking at the chart, we see after all-time highs, price action drifted sideways for months.

The deep retrace before the false breakout, gave a clue that supply was building.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Texas Instruments … Breakdown

February 25, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, TXN, TXN-26-07 2 Comments

Weak Retrace

Yesterday, Texas Instruments broke decisively lower.

Today, it’s attempting to retrace and test that break.

At this juncture, a weak 23.6%, is all TXN can produce (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget, NVDA posts earnings today, after the bell.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279