SOXX, in a ‘Coil’

March 23, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Last Gasp, Gap Fill?

It’s not unrealistic to say, there’s a struggle going on in the SOXX.

The last update showed the potential failure of gap-close attempts, link here.

Today’s action so far, looks like another battle to post into that area (not advice, not a recommendation).

The level to watch, is from March 11th, at 342.09.

A close significantly above, puts the SOXX, in up-thrust (potential reversal) position.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds at Inflection

March 22, 2026 By in Bonds, TLT Leave a comment

Market Down, Bonds Down

Back in the day, when the market headed south, bonds typically head higher (rates lower).

Since January, when the markets reversed to the downside, bonds (TLT) blipped higher but then reversed as well.

Now, they have closed below support.

As the chart shows in the upper left, the forty-year bull market has ended.

Now, we’re in a new paradigm (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Breakaway … SOXX

March 21, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, Nasdaq, NVDA, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-26-04, YouTube Black Swan 1 Comment

Some Gaps, Never Filled

The day after the SOXX, topped on February 25th, was, this update.

In the case of Nvidia, it never printed or closed above the high reached on that day.

Well, the SOXX never made it back either.

Then, March 3rd, we have what looks like a ‘breakaway’ gap.

There’ve been at least two attempts to close that gap.

One of those attempts, a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up, which may have failed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Other markets have rolled over as well; the Dow, S&P, the Qs, Biotech and so on (not advice, not a recommendation).

This just out, shows the typical response to an oil price shock, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Record Volume, in ‘CORN’

March 20, 2026 By in Corn, Derecho, Teucrium Leave a comment

Most, Since June of 2010

There’s massive volume in the Teucrium CORN, tracking fund.

The chart at left, is a Fibonacci 8-Day, with four more days to go before the current bar is complete.

The last time there was volume anywhere close to this, was back in June of 2020, several weeks before 10% of the U.S. corn crop was wiped out by an inland ‘hurricane’.

That incident launched a rally in CORN, lasting into the early part of 2022, gaining over 160% (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Confirms (so far)

March 19, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, SPBIO, XBI, XBI-26-04 Leave a comment

Downtrend Intact

Today’s action moved up, contacting the right side (supply side) trendline from yesterday’s update; then, pulled back.

For the short position, XBI-26-04. shown, the stop is just above today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Downside Ready

March 18, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, SPBIO, XBI 3 Comments

Trading Channel

Biotech is one of those sectors that’s been elusive, hard to pin down.

The last update was in January, link here.

Note: that update identified the exact high (so far), for the sector; shown as ‘Day 1’, in the chart below.

Since then, it’s been what looks like mindless, sideways congestion; until yesterday, and today.

Before getting to the chart, recall there’s a Fed announcement coming up.

That may bring volatility, or it could be much ado about nothing.

Biotech XBI, Daily

There have been two contact points on the right side (supply side) of the channel; the most recent, during yesterday’s session.

As of this post, there are no short positions (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Sleeper … Corning

March 17, 2026 By in NVDA, Semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence, GLW, GLW-26-07 Leave a comment

Next Leg Down?

What if you got a ‘secret’ phone call, telling you to focus on one stock; that it would go farther, last longer, than anyone expected?

It would have worked with Nvidia.

Nvidia’s return from the 2008 low (0.14-split adjusted) to the 2025 high at 212.19, was a mind-blowing 151,464%.

A modest $10,000 turns into $15.2-million.

In the case below, it’s still too early to tell if Corning GLW, could be that stock, but to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Corning GLW, Daily

Currently, GLW is attempting to close the opening gap.

For the above hypothesis to be remotely viable, GLW, must close lower for the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

In addition, tomorrow’s action needs to be lower as well and stay within the channel, shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s a lot of ‘if, and then’

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Corning … Target Update

March 16, 2026 By in GLW, GLW-26-06, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Push to 50%?

The last update had a stop level at 133.24, for short position GLW-26-06.

Once that level was penetrated, the trade was not exited immediately but monitored for a more advantageous (better priced) level.

When it became obvious GLW was likely to close higher for the day (which it did), the trade was covered at 132.984, slightly below the stop level.

Now, we’re on the sidelines watching to see if there’s a reversal at this point or if price action makes it to 50%, and another possible up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CORN … The Volume Clue

March 15, 2026 By in Corn, Derecho, Food Supply, Genesis 41 Leave a comment

History Repeats?

The last update on Teucrium tracking fund CORN, was in September, link here.

The chart is recreated below, including price action since then.

Key take-away from that September update, was this:

“With that said, let’s watch to see if there’s a test of what looks to be a nascent reversal; proceed with caution”

In the subsequent months, turns out, that was the exact bottom, for CORN.

The ‘test’ happened this past January (not advice, not a recommendation).

Teucrium Fund CORN, Monthly

We’re only half-way through the month and already, there’s a volume surge.

Last time volume had a similar spike after a long quiet spell, was back in June of 2020; ‘coincidentally’, just before The Derecho, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Last Time, Was ’29

March 14, 2026 By in 1929, 2007 - 2008, Alice Cheung, GLW, GLW-26-01, GLW-26-02, GLW-26-03, GLW-26-04, GLW-26-05, GLW-26-06, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Oil, S&P 500, SPY, USO, YouTube Black Swan Tags: , , Leave a comment

Hundred-Year Extremes

Going all the way back, this link, shows we’ve gone beyond 1929 levels.

It seems, nearly every recession (depression) gets kicked off with a spike in oil prices.

In 2008, USO peaked during the week of July 11, that year.

However, the damage was done.

The S&P (SPY) was already in decline, having peaked the week of October 12th, a year earlier.

Another Extreme

Not to be outdone with the valuation extreme, we have the mutual fund cash extreme at this link.

Mutual fund managers are ‘all-in’, Time Stamp 4:15 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, there’s ‘private credit’, link here.

Now, on to the trade du jour.

Corning GLW, Weekly

As GLW, was breaking out from generational highs, three attempts were made to short; result, small losses.

Adjusting Behavior

The most important take-away, is the behavior change as a result of losing entries; that is, stand-aside.

As said many times on this site:

“There’s nothing wrong with being wrong. It’s being wrong and staying wrong that’s the problem”

Once the Fibonacci sequence was identified, link here, short positioning continued.

Next Steps

Anything can happen.

For the chart above, the stop on the -06, trade is last Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that high as minor resistance, there’s also the weekly high at 139.63, for additional ‘protection’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279