Biotech’s Bearish Condition

October 4, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, BBIO, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, XBI, XBI-26-17 Leave a comment

Technical First

Depending on price action, the next several updates on XBI, will discuss the technical condition.

Then, we’ll get into behind-the-scenes or ‘fundamentals’.

With that said, we’ll start with the big picture, long timeframe; Fibonacci 8-Day

Biotech XBI, 8-Day

Price action has made it all the way back to 2021 manic highs, and stalled.

A potential double top.

Not present back in 2021, was the bearish (divergent) momentum condition highlighted by MACD histogram.

So, we have a potential double top, a terminating wedge and bearish MACD.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

S&P … Almost ‘There’

October 3, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, AZO, Biotech, BKNG, DUOL, HD, KMX, LOW, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, XBI, XBI-26-17 Leave a comment

‘There’, is a new All-Time High

Two weeks ago, was this update showing the (net) upward progress of the S&P was slowing (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, two days later was this, presenting how the index might make it to another high.

Now, the SPY chart is mimicking the longer timeframe by having successive shorter thrusts (magenta arrows).

At this point it’s a toss-up but does it really matter?

Meaning, if the downside is being worked (shorted), large numbers of tickers are already in essentially free-fall: AZO, BKNG, DUOL, HD, KMX, LOW; way below their all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: All have been covered at some point, on this site.

One sector that’s not cracked (yet) but seems to be building up immense pressure, is biotech.

Barring any unforeseen event, XBI is covered next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax … ‘Exceedingly Weak’

October 2, 2026 By in KMX, Transportation Leave a comment

Fibonacci 23.6%, Retrace

Looking at CarMax from its all-time highs to now, the retrace to 23.6% (if it holds) is exceedingly weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update on KMX was here, indicating a potential reversal and test.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Using Volume Clues

October 1, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Bert Dohmen, LABD, SPBIO Leave a comment

Leveraged Professionals

Leveraged funds, especially 3X biotech inverse fund LABD, is likely to weed out (bankrupt) an inexperienced participant in due time.

With that said, we have to at least concede there are some deep pocket professionals participating in the same fund during the same hours as our market neophytes.

So, when volume behaves in a way uncharacteristic to the market, something’s up … or about to be up.

Biotech 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, 1-minute.

The volume spike indicates capitulation or a big player has just moved in.

At the blue ‘arrow’, there are three one-minute bars.

The long entry took place during the second bar (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next chart shows the result.

As Bert Dohmen has said countless times during recent interviews, ‘Nobody looks at volume’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Do (trading) ‘Channels’ Work?

September 30, 2026 By in David Weis, XLF 2 Comments

Exhibit ‘A’

A ‘reverse trendline’ is a technique (described by Weis in 2007), where the left-most trend is plotted first, then copied and moved to the right to contact price action.

That was done for XLF.

One might think the channel was drawn just before this post.

In actuality, trendlines were drawn about eight trading days ago.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Top … So, Far

September 29, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI, XBI-26-16 Leave a comment

Subdividing Lower

Looking at the chart from left-to-right, the peaks are lower and the lows, are lower.

As noted, today was an apparent up-thrust (reversal), with a test coming towards the close.

After-hours action (as of 7:40 p.m., EST) is holding steady; no movement up or down.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Axis of Biotech

September 28, 2026 By in Biotech, SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI, XBI-26-16 Leave a comment

Underside Test

The chart segment of XBI shows its posted an axis line over the past few months.

There have been oscillations on both sides, with today being an underside test.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

What’s The Market Saying?

September 27, 2026 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, Wyckoff, XOP, ZeroHedge Leave a comment

Confirmation of Price Action

The Wyckoff technique (in its purest sense) focuses exclusively on price action and volume.

Wyckoff himself said, ‘if you can’t ignore the (financial) news, you’ll never be successful in the markets.‘

With that, we have this just days ago, concerning the oil market, based on price action itself:

“Continued hostilities in the Middle East, along with oil tankers being sunk, do not seem to be materially affecting the (already high) price of oil.”

ZeroHedge Reports

Now, this just out from ZeroHedge, link here.

‘The Straight of Hormuz, has lost it’s grip on oil prices.’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Best Buy … Top

September 26, 2026 By in BBY, Up-Thrust 4 Comments

Failure To Hold

Best Buy, posted Fibonacci 8-Days above resistance before closing lower.

The resistance level shown, goes back to early 2025, making the failed breakout (so far), an up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Peak Oil?

September 25, 2026 By in Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Greater Depression, Oil, Oil & Gas, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, XOP 1 Comment

The Sector Has Reversed

We’ve all heard it before.

High oil prices tend to precipitate out recessions, or maybe a depression in our case (not advice, not a recommendation).

When looking at XOP, a proxy for the Oil & Gas sector, it appears to be front-running a decline in oil prices.

Or, possibly a decline in demand.

There’s also a familiar repeating pattern.

Oil & Gas Exploration XOP, Weekly

Once nuance to note:

Continued hostilities in the Middle East, along with oil tankers being sunk, do not seem to be materially affecting the (already high) price of oil.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279