Failure To Hold
Best Buy, posted Fibonacci 8-Days above resistance before closing lower.
The resistance level shown, goes back to early 2025, making the failed breakout (so far), an up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The Sector Has Reversed
We’ve all heard it before.
High oil prices tend to precipitate out recessions, or maybe a depression in our case (not advice, not a recommendation).
When looking at XOP, a proxy for the Oil & Gas sector, it appears to be front-running a decline in oil prices.
Or, possibly a decline in demand.
There’s also a familiar repeating pattern.
Oil & Gas Exploration XOP, Weekly
Once nuance to note:
Continued hostilities in the Middle East, along with oil tankers being sunk, do not seem to be materially affecting the (already high) price of oil.
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
And Then?
Fibonacci ‘Day 21’, was a swift wide bar down move.
Wide bars tend to get tested, and we see that happening today and possibly tomorrow (not advice, not a recommendation).
When looking at the left side of the chart (compared to right), volatility has increased, indicating instability.
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
A Test, Before Down?
The all-time high is at the far left of the chart.
Then, we have a resistance level, (blue lines), penetrated at ‘1‘.
Today’s red candle is Day 13 from ‘1‘, or Day 8 from the most recent daily lows.
From a Wyckoff perspective, we could look at Point 1, as an up-thrust, followed by ‘sign-of-supply’, and then a test.
Today’s new daily low at Fibonacci Day 8, or Day 13, may help us point odds to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
… Also, In ’99
As Ox Talks reports, the markets have posted an indictor that’s only happened twice in the last 100+ years.
Just before a melt-down (not advice, not a recommendation).
The ‘event’ (time stamp 0:48) being discussed, took place on July 23rd, 1929.
The actual market top in ’29, was less than two months later; September 3rd, the day after the Labor Day weekend.
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Within Range
The last update on SPY, showed ‘shortening of the thrust’; a classic Wyckoff observation concerning end of trend (not advice, not a recommendation).
Now, we have a possibility of another all-time high.
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Fibonacci Week 5
This coming week is Fibonacci ‘Week 5’, from the KMX reversal during the week of 8/28 (labeled as ‘1’ on the chart).
Note the volume last week, increased over 78% from the week prior (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
A Century Old, Observation
The net upward distance traveled on the S&P, with each major thrust, is getting shorter.
This ‘shortened thrust’ is one of Wyckoff’s observations going all the way back to ‘Studies in Tape Reading‘.
It’s getting harder for the S&P to make any additional headway; the move is nearing its end (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Dow, S&P, Qs Et al.
The Dow (DIA) all-time highs were on August 5th, the S&P (SPY) on August 13th, the Qs (QQQ), way back on June 3rd; Semiconductors (SOXX), June 22nd, and the list goes on.
We have updates by the day, if not the hour, like this, this, and this, letting us know in real-time, the air’s coming out of the bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).
So, ‘gentlemen, start your engines‘ 🙂
Pick your market
Biotech XBI, Daily
The chart has an added bonus, showing the potential trading channel.
Trade Action: Yesterday, XBI-26-11, was exited at break even, then re-established (short) as XBI-26-12, and well-in-the-green by the close (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Massive Channel
As reported by Ox Talks, link here, Oracle’s corporate bonds are about one tick above ‘junk’ status, Time Stamp: 13:00 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
