Bond ‘Stick-Save?’

May 19, 2026 By in 2000 - 2001, 2007 - 2008, Bonds, Interest Rates, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, TLT 2 Comments

Back, in the Day

It’s no secret, bonds (TLT) are at a critical juncture; primed to break significantly lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Breakdown, is almost a ‘no-brainer’.

Almost.

For those old enough, remember back in the early 2000s, the S&P had formed a near-perfect Head & Shoulders?

Remember, how price action was printing lower, ready to penetrate the down-sloping neckline?

Then, just as it got there (week of 10/11/02), from out of nowhere, came a launch upward that didn’t stop until October of 2007?

Rember that?

Of course, we found out later, the ‘hidden hand’ was at work, preventing a melt-down; leading us to where we are today. 🙂

Let’s all keep that in mind as we watch the bond market flirt with disaster (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Affirm Reversal: Update

May 18, 2026 By in AFRM, AFRM-26-01 Leave a comment

Multiple Tests

The last update on AFRM, link here, said to watch for a test of the reversal.

After that, there was a test; in fact, two of them.

The last one (so far) was this past Thursday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note how the reversal bar (zoom area) nearly touches the 38.2%, retrace exactly.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Breakdown

May 17, 2026 By in Bonds, DRV, Interest Rates, IYR, Ox Talks, Real Estate, TLT Leave a comment

Bond Market Catalyst

The bond market’s on fire; yields screaming higher, bond prices lower.

Since the end of the forty-year bull market (TLT) in 2020, the view on this site, has been consistent.

That is, ‘unless there’s a market melt-down and even if there is, bond prices are likely to remain under pressure’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

That sentiment, recently echoed by Ox Talks, link here (Time Stamp: 6:40).

All of which, brings us to real estate.

Real Estate ETF, IYR, Daily

There were twenty-days struggling at resistance, forming a terminating wedge.

Day 21 (this past Friday) was the breakout to the downside.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The S&P Top … and Drop

May 16, 2026 By in S&P, S&P 500, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX, SPY, Tom Hougaard Leave a comment

Interesting Numbers

Trading professional Tom Hougaard has already told us, if Friday’s market action trades below the prior day, Thursday, then Monday tends to be lower as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s a lot going on in the S&P chart below.

S&P 500 SPY, Daily

The current move bottom-to-top, was 33 Days

If the SPY retraces from Friday’s close to the ‘Measured Move’ target, it’s a drop of approximately –3% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s throw in some SOXX, stats as well.

SOXX all-time high (5/11), was 533.74. The ‘test’ high (5/14), was 533.13, closing at 530.03, a daily gain of +0.33%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Off The Cliff?

May 15, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX, SPY Leave a comment

Won’t Know, ’till Monday

First, there was ‘shortening of the thrust’, link here.

Then, it was ‘SOXX goes parabolic’, link here.

After that, it was ‘change of character’, link here.

On the heels of that, ‘no new highs’, link here.

Finally, today, we have a gap-down open, new daily low and closing low.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

It’s important to note, the S&P (SPY) also posted a gap down, close down for the day.

A gap down from all-time highs.

Of course, it could all be much ado about nothing (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Regional Banks … Breakdown

May 14, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Banking, KRE, KRE-26-01, Ox Talks, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff Leave a comment

End of The Test?

All eyes seem to be on reports like this, as if it’s a good thing while the nerdy kid in the back, is frantically waving, trying to get everyone’s attention.

All you need to know, link above, is in the first 55-seconds.

‘There’s never been a run like this’

It’s ok, this rally has legs because we’re believing the misconception, earnings move prices … so, all is well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, Back at The Bank

‘Ox Talks‘ has been relentlessly covering the truth; that truth is, the A.I. (and credit) narrative is imploding in real time (not advice, not a recommendation).

Which brings us to the banks.

The chart of Regional Banking ETF, KRE, shows what might be happening.

S&P Regional Banking ETF, KRE, Weekly

The Interpretation:

Wyckoff up-thrust in February, followed by ‘sign of supply’ in March, then up for a test.

We’re on a weekly timeframe; whatever happens has the potential for some duration.

With the breakdown, the test appears to be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Close, But No Cigar

May 13, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX 1 Comment

Just Short of All-Time Highs

Another data-point.

The 15-minute chart shows SOXX attempted to recover from yesterday’s whack; trying to post a new all-time high.

It didn’t happen.

When looking at the 4-Hour chart (not shown), today’s thrust energy (Force Index) is nearly missing altogether (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Change of Character

May 12, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Like a Chameleon

Several days ago, a Wyckoff characteristic was identified, ‘shortening of the thrust’, indicating the potential end of a move, link here.

Now, we have a ‘change of character’, another reversal potential.

As a reminder, we’re dealing with probabilities; each nuance adding to the next. This is not a forecast.

Semiconductors SOXX, 4-Hour

The chart shows a series of upward thrusts, identified by Elder’s Force Index (blue arrows), with a corresponding market move, the black arrows.

Question:

Before rushing to the answer below, what’s different about the last blue/black arrow pair on the far-right side?

Answer:

On every single arrow pair except the far right, price action ends higher than the previous 4-Hour bar.

Check with your own chart package to see if this isn’t true.

On the last arrow pair, the close of the 4-Hour bar is below the previous 4-Hour high.

The SOXX has changed character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Goes ‘Parabolic’

May 11, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX 1 Comment

We’ve Seen This Movie Before …

Two days ago, was this comment:

“This move has gone parabolic, very much like the silver top and collapse from my perspective.”

Now, today, we have this, link here.

With that, let’s move on to the chart.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

Closing price action has gone (almost) as far as it can and still maintain ‘shortened thrust’ structure (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Affirm Reversal

May 10, 2026 By in AFRM, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Fibonacci Retrace

The up-thrust reversal shown at left (black arrow), is at both a Fibonacci 50% retrace as well as 38.2%, on a longer time frame.

‘Normal’ market behavior is to come back for a test (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that happnes, we’ll cover more detail at the next session.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279