Chubb Hangs On … How Long?

August 22, 2026 By in CB, Insurance, Life Insurance, Moby Dick, Ox Talks, Property Insurance Leave a comment

At The Edge

Events are unfolding rapidly.

The insurance sector, specifically life insurance (so far), is the whale under the surface (not advice, not a recommendation).

While Chubb Corp’s not life insurance, it’s the close cousin, property insurance.

Unlike the banks as pointed out at this link, if there’s trouble, there’s unlikely to be a bailout.

Chubb Corp. CB, Daily Close

We may find out on Monday, if CB is, or is not, following the down trendline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Upside Breakout

August 21, 2026 By in CVNA, CVNA-26-04, KMX, Transportation, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Carvana As Well?

If CarMax continues higher from here, it has a measured move target as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

That implies Carvana may come along as well.

With that said, even though CVNA closed lower for the day, the session opened higher than yesterday’s close.

‘The higher open was not expected which now, ever so slightly, points bias to the upside.

CVNA was ‘short-traded’ throughout the day and CVNA-26-04, was closed-out with a slight profit.

Caveat Emptor

The breakout in KMX is not all that convincing.

If it falls back into the range, it’s likely an up-thrust (reversal).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Step-by-Step

August 20, 2026 By in Wyckoff, CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Transportation, CVNA-26-04 Leave a comment

The (short) Path

With today’s new daily high, Carvana’s following a Fibonacci sequence, thus far.

Referencing the chart below, we have:

Day 1: Wyckoff up-thrust, penetrating resistance (blue line).

Day 3: Lows, increased volume; ‘sign-of-supply’.

Day 5: Recovery high, testing the underside.

It’s at this point, anything can happen.

For most of today’s session, CVNA remained below the highs, giving doubt to the prior analysis.

It wasn’t until the last ten-minutes of trade, did price action move above yesterday’s high of 71.18.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

As CVNA pushed above that high, a short was opened: CVNA-26-04, with the stop just above today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

If Carvana manages to push higher, the scenario discussed yesterday, the next resistance level may be more probable.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Tomorrow?

August 19, 2026 By in CVNA, Interest Rates, Ox Talks, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Fibonacci, Day 5

Tomorrow is Fibonacci Day 5 for Carvana from the most recent up-thrust high.

The low (yesterday), was Fibonacci Day 3.

With that, we have two schools of thought.

Lower interest rates may (help) boost CVNA to the upper resistance boundary (dashed blue line), penetrating, creating a larger up-thrust condition.

Or tomorrow, is the test of the breakdown (then lower).

If that’s the case, it does not matter how low rates go, the economy is in a swan dive (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Progressive Hits Trendline

August 18, 2026 By in Insurance, PGR, PGR-26-02 Leave a comment

Down-Trendline

We’re either still in the trading channel (at left) or we’re not.

Tomorrow’s action may continue lower, verifying the trend, or break to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

For positioning short, it’s relatively straightforward.

Short trade PGR-26-02, entered at 207.22, with a stop above yesterday’s session high at 209.72, yielding a ‘risk’ of 2.50-pts.

Let’s see what happens next.

Update: 8:30 a.m., EST: PGR-26-02 exited in pre-market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Progressive Breaks Lower

August 17, 2026 By in Insurance, PGR, PGR-26-01 Leave a comment

Behind The Scenes

Progressive’s price action had been coiling, preparing for the downside, long before any downgrade news, link here.

Now, it looks like it’s in a trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Downside Reversal?

August 16, 2026 By in Biotech, IBB, IBB-26-02, Karen Kingston, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Alignment of Forces

The last two updates, here and here, presented the case, forces are lining up; probability’s increasing for a downside reversal.

This update will complete the session (so far) on that potential.

Let’s not forget, behind-the-scenes (for years) stories like this and this continue to bubble to the surface.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

Last week’s trading range was significantly more narrow (with volume higher) than the week prior.

The chart shows IBB finished at or near the top of the wedge boundary and in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ position.

The ‘more’ promised at the end of yesterday’s update; Friday’s daily volume contracted on the test.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech ‘Dissected’

August 15, 2026 By in Biotech, IBB, IBB-26-02 1 Comment

Looking at The Inside

Yesterday’s update showed biotech sector IBB, in a bearish divergence.

The list of components can be found here.

For today, we’ll look at some of the technical characteristics pointing to potential for a downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech IBB, Weekly

A wedge typically occurs at the end of a move, whether up or down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action has met the ‘measured move’ target and even gone slightly above.

The potential bearish MACD is shown.

If the coming week is flat or down, we’ll (likely) have a tick lower in MACD, completing the divergence signal.

Fo the next update, we’ll discuss a much larger ‘terminating’ wedge and more.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s Dual Divergence

August 14, 2026 By in Biotech, IBB, IBB-26-02, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Daily & Weekly

The daily chart of IBB (left), and the weekly, are both posting bearish divergences.

Caveat: Strictly speaking, on the weekly chart, the MACD has yet to tick lower.

However, if next week’s action holds steady or posts lower, we’ll likely get that signal as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Allstate’s ‘Day 13’

August 13, 2026 By in ALL, Artificial Intelligence, Insurance, Moby Dick, Ox Talks Leave a comment

Tomorrow, Friday

Will tomorrow post a new daily high for ALL, and make it an even thirteen?

For that matter, why focus on (boring) insurance, anyway?

Probably, the best answer can be found here and here.

Many are focused on precious metals, bonds and the A.I. bubble.

Not a bad thing in itself.

However, behind the scenes, insurance companies are lumbering like The Great White Whale.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279