Fibonacci 23.6%, Retrace
Looking at CarMax from its all-time highs to now, the retrace to 23.6% (if it holds) is exceedingly weak (not advice, not a recommendation).
The last update on KMX was here, indicating a potential reversal and test.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Leveraged Professionals
Leveraged funds, especially 3X biotech inverse fund LABD, is likely to weed out (bankrupt) an inexperienced participant in due time.
With that said, we have to at least concede there are some deep pocket professionals participating in the same fund during the same hours as our market neophytes.
So, when volume behaves in a way uncharacteristic to the market, something’s up … or about to be up.
Biotech 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, 1-minute.
The volume spike indicates capitulation or a big player has just moved in.
At the blue ‘arrow’, there are three one-minute bars.
The long entry took place during the second bar (not advice, not a recommendation).
The next chart shows the result.
As Bert Dohmen has said countless times during recent interviews, ‘Nobody looks at volume’.
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Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Exhibit ‘A’
A ‘reverse trendline’ is a technique (described by Weis in 2007), where the left-most trend is plotted first, then copied and moved to the right to contact price action.
That was done for XLF.
One might think the channel was drawn just before this post.
In actuality, trendlines were drawn about eight trading days ago.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Subdividing Lower
Looking at the chart from left-to-right, the peaks are lower and the lows, are lower.
As noted, today was an apparent up-thrust (reversal), with a test coming towards the close.
After-hours action (as of 7:40 p.m., EST) is holding steady; no movement up or down.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Underside Test
The chart segment of XBI shows its posted an axis line over the past few months.
There have been oscillations on both sides, with today being an underside test.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Confirmation of Price Action
The Wyckoff technique (in its purest sense) focuses exclusively on price action and volume.
Wyckoff himself said, ‘if you can’t ignore the (financial) news, you’ll never be successful in the markets.‘
With that, we have this just days ago, concerning the oil market, based on price action itself:
“Continued hostilities in the Middle East, along with oil tankers being sunk, do not seem to be materially affecting the (already high) price of oil.”
ZeroHedge Reports
Now, this just out from ZeroHedge, link here.
‘The Straight of Hormuz, has lost it’s grip on oil prices.’
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Failure To Hold
Best Buy, posted Fibonacci 8-Days above resistance before closing lower.
The resistance level shown, goes back to early 2025, making the failed breakout (so far), an up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The Sector Has Reversed
We’ve all heard it before.
High oil prices tend to precipitate out recessions, or maybe a depression in our case (not advice, not a recommendation).
When looking at XOP, a proxy for the Oil & Gas sector, it appears to be front-running a decline in oil prices.
Or, possibly a decline in demand.
There’s also a familiar repeating pattern.
Oil & Gas Exploration XOP, Weekly
Once nuance to note:
Continued hostilities in the Middle East, along with oil tankers being sunk, do not seem to be materially affecting the (already high) price of oil.
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
And Then?
Fibonacci ‘Day 21’, was a swift wide bar down move.
Wide bars tend to get tested, and we see that happening today and possibly tomorrow (not advice, not a recommendation).
When looking at the left side of the chart (compared to right), volatility has increased, indicating instability.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
A Test, Before Down?
The all-time high is at the far left of the chart.
Then, we have a resistance level, (blue lines), penetrated at ‘1‘.
Today’s red candle is Day 13 from ‘1‘, or Day 8 from the most recent daily lows.
From a Wyckoff perspective, we could look at Point 1, as an up-thrust, followed by ‘sign-of-supply’, and then a test.
Today’s new daily low at Fibonacci Day 8, or Day 13, may help us point odds to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
