Biotech … Downside Reversal?

August 16, 2026 By in Biotech, IBB, IBB-26-02, Karen Kingston, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Alignment of Forces

The last two updates, here and here, presented the case, forces are lining up; probability’s increasing for a downside reversal.

This update will complete the session (so far) on that potential.

Let’s not forget, behind-the-scenes (for years) stories like this and this continue to bubble to the surface.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

Last week’s trading range was significantly more narrow (with volume higher) than the week prior.

The chart shows IBB finished at or near the top of the wedge boundary and in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ position.

The ‘more’ promised at the end of yesterday’s update; Friday’s daily volume contracted on the test.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech ‘Dissected’

August 15, 2026 By in Biotech, IBB, IBB-26-02 1 Comment

Looking at The Inside

Yesterday’s update showed biotech sector IBB, in a bearish divergence.

The list of components can be found here.

For today, we’ll look at some of the technical characteristics pointing to potential for a downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech IBB, Weekly

A wedge typically occurs at the end of a move, whether up or down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action has met the ‘measured move’ target and even gone slightly above.

The potential bearish MACD is shown.

If the coming week is flat or down, we’ll (likely) have a tick lower in MACD, completing the divergence signal.

Fo the next update, we’ll discuss a much larger ‘terminating’ wedge and more.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s Dual Divergence

August 14, 2026 By in Biotech, IBB, IBB-26-02, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Daily & Weekly

The daily chart of IBB (left), and the weekly, are both posting bearish divergences.

Caveat: Strictly speaking, on the weekly chart, the MACD has yet to tick lower.

However, if next week’s action holds steady or posts lower, we’ll likely get that signal as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Allstate’s ‘Day 13’

August 13, 2026 By in ALL, Artificial Intelligence, Insurance, Moby Dick, Ox Talks Leave a comment

Tomorrow, Friday

Will tomorrow post a new daily high for ALL, and make it an even thirteen?

For that matter, why focus on (boring) insurance, anyway?

Probably, the best answer can be found here and here.

Many are focused on precious metals, bonds and the A.I. bubble.

Not a bad thing in itself.

However, behind the scenes, insurance companies are lumbering like The Great White Whale.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Allstate Breakdown

August 12, 2026 By in ALL, Insurance Leave a comment

Is the Top, In?

Looks like ALL, has ‘double topped’ the all-time highs.

Then, today, trend breakdown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Typical market action is a test of the break (higher action).

Let’s see if it happens.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Must Watch Video

August 11, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ox Talks, Semiconductors Leave a comment

Demarcation Line

In the realm of the surreal, we have this.

Ox Talks gives an update on the latest psychosis concerning funding related to A.I.

All-of-a-sudden, for the first time in history, semiconductors, the chips themselves, are ‘investible assets’; time stamp: 3:08, in the link (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Micron … Wedge at The Edge

August 10, 2026 By in MU, Semiconductors, SOXX 2 Comments

Demand Evaporating?

Today was supposed to be the day when semis continued their short squeeze grind higher.

It didn’t happen.

Instead, we had various reversal patterns and (down) trendline confirmations.

The trend, channel, and minor wedge on MU, is a good example (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

KKR … Reversal

August 9, 2026 By in S&P 500, S&P, Dow 30, DIA, SPY, SOXX, QQQ, Nasdaq, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, KKR Leave a comment

Ruh, Roh Moment

While the Dow, S&P, Qs and the SOXX all seem ready to continue higher, KKR, is absent from the party.

There’s an up-thrust reversal from resistance, then decline to minor support (dashed grey line).

Volume is increasing as price action nears that level.

The suggestion then, is the support will fail (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AutoZone Rally … In Progress

August 8, 2026 By in 1987, AZO, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Trading Channel, Trend Line

Two weeks ago, was this update:

“Price action’s been hitting and bouncing off support for nearly two months; finally, penetrating and closing below that line, last Thursday.”

With that said, we had the definition of a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

So, what’s happened since then?

AutoZone AZO, Daily

At this point, the rally’s in-progress (not advice, not a recommendation).

If AZO continues higher from here and maintains the right side trendline, we get to ‘gap closure’ somewhere around August 25th.

For the histrions amongst us, August 25th, was the market high in 1987.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CAT & AMD … Similar Set-Up

August 7, 2026 By in AMD, CAT Leave a comment

Still Testing?

Is Caterpillar and the overall market (including the semis) going to start next week attempting to move higher?

AMD has been covered over the past several days; like CAT (below), it looks like there could be some upside to test and/or closing of chart gaps (not advice, not a recommendation).

Caterpillar CAT, Daily

The spike higher (on earnings) to resistance could have already been the culmination of the move (from the recent lows) or just the initial sign of demand.

The chart shows, during the downside retrace, volume has contracted three consecutive days, indicating there’s potential for some subsequent action higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279