Home Depot Reversal

July 15, 2026 By in HD, HD-26-01, Real Estate, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Fibonacci Time Sequence

Home Depot posted its all-time highs years ago, back in 2024.

Since then, it’s been a series of trading ranges with nearly each one, resolving lower.

So, we have an overall downtrend.

The last update, here, presented a potential trading channel, and price action scenario needed to confirm:

“If HD, moves higher, then the set-up is (potentially) invalid. Lower, and we could be in the trading channel”

It turns out, price action did both; it opened higher, then finished outside-down, lower for the day.

The set-up was morphing into something else.

So, the trading action was to stand aside (not advice not a recommendation).

That ‘something else’, may have been today’s (potential) reversal.

Home Depot, HD, Daily

A Fibonacci sequence appears to be in-effect with pivot points, at Fibonacci intervals (so far).

It might not look like much, and if tomorrow’s high exceeds today, it won’t be. 🙂

However, the last up-thrust reversal (middle of the chart), initiated a decline covering around 60-points (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Narrows The Gap

July 14, 2026 By in Federal Reserve, NVDA, SOXX, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Is Tomorrow, The Day?

We have all kinds of Fed related kabuki on tap for tomorrow, link here.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, whatever the Fed says, the beige book or any other ancillary information, is of no-matter to what the market’s actually saying about itself.

In the case of Nvidia and by correlation, the SOXX, gap distance discussed yesterday, is being narrowed.

Nvidia, NVDA, Daily

With the caveat, in the markets, anything can happen, nonetheless we see if NVDA gets to the target level to close the gap, that level is also a 61.8%, Fibonacci retrace (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia ‘Corrects’ Higher

July 13, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors 1 Comment

Targeting Resistance?

June 5th was a 4-pt. downward gap open, then lower close; down 13.56-pts, or -6.20%.

Price action may be targeting this area in an attempt to fill the gap (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Ciena’s ‘Crash’ History

July 12, 2026 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, CIEN, GLW, ON Leave a comment

Multiple (multi-year) Implosions

Since 1998, Ciena has corrected, imploded, or crashed by over 50%, seven times.

Declines like -51.03%, -51.49%, -66.18%, -79.82%, -89.95%, -91.20% and the big one; dot-com era near total wipeout at -98.40%.

So, here we are, market valuations by some measures that long-ago exceeded dot-com numbers (not advice, not a recommendation).

Ciena Corp., CIEN, Quarterly

Unlike Corning and ON Semi, Ciena has (so far) not recovered to dot-com levels.

Notice at the right side, we’ve had five straight quarterly advances with the subsequent open, at-or-near the previous close.

That is, until the current quarter.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Home Depot … Lower?

July 11, 2026 By in HD, Real Estate 1 Comment

The Set-Up

Well, there it is.

You can see what the expectation is for the next open.

If HD, moves higher, then the set-up is (potentially) invalid. Lower, and we could be in the trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Struggle of ON

July 10, 2026 By in ON, Semiconductors, SOXX Leave a comment

Is Today, The Day?

There’s a lot going on, in the chart of ON, at left.

What we’re looking for here, is either a new daily low, or continuation higher into established resistance (not advice, not a recommendation).

Pre-market in the SOXX is lower (as of 8:55 a.m., EST).

Recall, yesterday’s post had it at 13-days since all-time highs for the SOXX.

Looking at the chart of ON, yesterday was Fibonacci Day 8, from the recent lows.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … One More High?

July 9, 2026 By in ON, Semiconductors, SOXX 1 Comment

Close To Resistance

Today was Fibonacci Day 13, from the SOXX, all-time highs.

So, we’ll see if the SOXX posts and closes higher or if today was it (not advice, not a recommendation).

From an individual vehicle standpoint, ON Semiconductor is the focus.

The market itself has said it does not like recent acquisition plans. A massive down move, heavy volume (now retracing), may be hiding opportunity for something larger.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver (SLV) ‘Projections’

July 8, 2026 By in Daniela Cambone, Gold & Silver, SLV Leave a comment

Fibonacci Targets

The last update on silver (here), presented the potential to either levitate higher or continue with downward pressure (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since then, silver (SLV) has declined another -11%; now, as we’ll see, it’s between two Fibonacci projections.

Silver SLV, Weekly

Of course, based on videos like this, we can say that ‘nobody’ expects silver to get below $50/.oz (not advice, not a recommendation).

Well, almost nobody 🙂

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Bulls … Whacked

July 7, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, Ox Talks, TLT, ZeroHedge 4 Comments

Higher Rates

At the pivot off the lows in May, was this.

The very next day, TLT launched into a rally, seven straight higher closes, then a minor retrace to 38%, before continuing higher.

It seemed like all was well.

However, this link contains the statement that describes it best (paraphrasing):

Four-decades of the bull market in bonds, steadily declining yields, ended four years ago.

That bull market end, first discussed on this site (over two-years ago), with this post.

All of that to say, we did get a six-week rally in TLT, which at this point, has imploded; the over-riding bear market asserts its trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

Note: The dashed downtrend line goes all the way back to the week of 4/29/22, over four years ago.

Ox Talks, on Bonds

This update from Ox Talks, discussing private credit, but containing a nuance on bonds and interest rates.

‘Retail’ is bailing out of private credit, while ‘institutions’ are taking their place, link here (Time Stamp: 5:18).

At 5:40, we see how those institutions expect to see the ‘investment’ pay off (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate’s ‘Outside-Down’

July 6, 2026 By in Real Estate, VNQ, VNQ-26-01 Leave a comment

Another, Well Defined Risk

Vanguard Real Estate VNQ, posted outside down during the session just ended.

Before today, price action appeared ready to breakout to the upside; possibly, in a final summertime blow-off move.

Now, because of the reversal, that probability appears to have shifted to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279