Oil & Gas … Exhausted

April 14, 2026 By in Carl Vernon, DRIP, DRIP-26-01, Neo Feudalism, Oil, Oil & Gas, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Survival Lilly, Up-Thrust, XOP Leave a comment

Demand Collapse?

Across the pond, the U.K. seems ready to introduce Universal Basic Income; welcome to Neo Feudalism.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch in Germany, we have Survival Lilly giving us updates near daily, on that pending implosion.

‘You will own nothing‘, time Stamp 6:20

With all of that said, including the military hijinks in the straight, you would think uncertainty results in oil prices ever higher.

At this point, it’s not happening.

Oil & Gas Exploration ETF, XOP, Weekly

Oil & Gas Sector XOP, has been declining for three straight weeks (not advice not a recommendation).

There’s the familiar pattern: Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Like previous posts, we need to be reminded (at least I do), of the massive scale of events.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CORN … Massive Volume

April 13, 2026 By in Corn, Derecho, Teucrium Leave a comment

Never-Before-Seen

Trading in Teucrium Fund CORN, is at levels not seen in its history.

If we use the prior example of when there was an aberration in volume, there was a weather ‘event‘ six-to-eight weeks later (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sliver … a second opinion

April 12, 2026 By in Gold & Silver, SLV Leave a comment

Different Approach, Similar Result

Yesterday’s update presented a scenario, suggesting lower prices for silver are more probable (medium term) than higher.

Another method to use for what might be next, linked here.

Important to note, the above link makes the assumption we’re in a ‘breakout’ scenario; different from ‘we’re still in a meltdown’ scenario (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, the following comment from that post sums up the situation fairly well as do the replies:

‘So difficult because in addition to historical patterns, we’re in unprecedented times.’

All the more reason to stay focused on price action; not the news, experts or pundits.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver: Crash of ’08, and Now

April 11, 2026 By in Gold & Silver, 1987, SLV, 2007 - 2008, 1998, 2000 - 2001, Ox Talks, Bubba Trading, David Lin Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Possibilities for The Present

Is it the same as ’08, but worse?

For old-timers who were there during the crash of ’08, and ’00, and ’98, all the way back to ’87, the pattern of ’08, was different.

During the ’08 crisis, you could see (and feel) in real time, how the burden was transferred by decree, to the public.

Along with that, was:

‘If this thing somehow manages to pull out, the next time (and there will be a next time) there’s no saving it’.

Re-Visiting, ’08

Data’s accumulating, building the case, we’re back to the ’08 playbook (not advice, not a recommendation).

2008 All Over Again- Jamie Dimon Says Defaults Are Coming, link here.

They Rebuilt the 2008 Crash Machine — And Put It In Your Retirement Account, link here.

‘I Expect Something Similar To 2008’ Warns Trader | Todd Horwitz, link here.

Memory Lane

Just a reminder of what it was like back then, this link.

Flash Crash ’10

Since we’re building a case, let’s throw in this, link here.

‘all the way down … 79s are tradinggggggg…’

Silver Then, Silver Now

So, how did silver behave during that blow-up in ’08. Did ‘everybody’ flock to safety?

The short answer is no. Silver got hammered; down nearly 60%, right along with the rest.

Only afterwards, did it launch into a bull move. All of which, brings us to today.

Silver Tracking ETF, SLV, Monthly

Looking at the chart, one can immediately understand what’s being suggested (not advice, not a recommendation).

A decline of 60% from the January 29th, high, puts SLV in the vicinity of 43 – 44 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Selling Short, TXN

April 10, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Semiconductors, TXN, TXN-26-08, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

A Generational Top?

It almost goes without saying, market events are taking place on a massive scale.

Ed Dowd, has said repeatedly in his interviews:

‘When it’s all said and done, I expect Nvidia to be down 80% to 90%’ (not advice not a recommendation).

However, there are others besides Nvidia, with significant downside potential.

Case in point, Texas Instruments.

There’ve been several recent updates on TXN. The most significant one, linked here.

It’s possible, right now, today, is a test of the all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Texas Instruments TXN, Weekly

One thing can be said with some certainty, we’re at The Danger Point®, where risk on a short is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the February update shows, it’s been 26-years since the other massive upward spike in Force Index.

Last time that happened, TXN imploded 87% (not advice, to a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Bubba’ Horwitz … Bets

April 9, 2026 By in Bubba Trading, David Lin Leave a comment

‘He’s Short, Everything (almost)’

In case you missed it, the following is a time stamp list for key items from David Lin’s interview with Todd, ‘Bubba’ Horwitz of BubbaTrading.com

Testing the 200 Day MA, Time Stamp: 9:40

Economic ‘warning signs’, Time Stamp: 14:40

Fed is out of bullets, Time Stamp: 19:20

Long Grains, Time Stamp: 21:30

Fertilizer Costs, Time Stamp 22:40

‘Fund Money’ (going to grain markets), Time Stamp: 24:08

‘End the Fed’, Time Stamp: 25:30

Trouble ahead, Time Stamp: 26:00

Watch for 40% – 60%, ‘haircut’, Time Stamp: 27:30

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Intel … After The Open

April 8, 2026 By in Spring-to-Up-Thrust, INTC, NVDA, Semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence, NVDA-26-01, INTC-26-03 Leave a comment

Set-Up & Go

The set-up in Intel (INTC) is more than just ‘selling the rip’.

We have a repeating pattern with a high expectation.

Meaning, the probabilities of a reversal to the downside with this type of set-up is greater than 50% chance (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this update (11:10 a.m., EST) INTC has decisively penetrated support and is now hovering at that level.

What’s missing in the way of confirmation is either a reversal bar today, or a new daily low during tomorrow’s session.

Intel INTC, Daily

With the mega-cap Nvidia almost instantly retracing its opening highs, it may be leading the pack lower.

If that’s the case, the entire sector is at risk of following NVDA to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Intel ‘Set-Up’

April 8, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, INTC, Semiconductors, Spring-to-Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Repeating Pattern

If intel (INTC) opens at the level shown (magenta arrow), it’s going to post a new daily high, above January 22nd high.

Doing that, would put INTC in ‘up-thrust‘ position (not advice not a recommendation).

Intel INTC, Daily

Today’s open will be Fibonacci 55-Days (-2) from the January 22nd high.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … after-hours

April 7, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, NVDA-26-01, Semiconductors, ZeroHedge Leave a comment

Fibonacci Levels

The markets are higher in the after-hours session on news of a potential cease-fire, link here.

Nvidia’s no exception.

However, as the chart shows, it’s right at a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace (as of 7:13 p.m., EST).

If this level holds, or if NVDA moves higher, tomorrow’s session is likely to be quite interesting (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Semiconductors Inch Higher

April 6, 2026 By in SOXX, SOXS, Semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence, Up-Thrust, SOXS-26-02, AMD, AMD-26-01 Leave a comment

Using The Grind

Today’s buoyancy in the semiconductor sector, SOXX, gave an opportunity to assess the situation.

The decision was made to exit the short on the sector itself (via SOXS), and initiate individual short positions based on price action.

Some equities are stronger, some weaker; AMD is one of the latter.

With that said, AMD, sold short @ 220.18, as AMD-26-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Close for the session just happened to be exactly at 220.18, putting the trade at break-even.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279