Behind The Scenes
Progressive’s price action had been coiling, preparing for the downside, long before any downgrade news, link here.
Now, it looks like it’s in a trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Alignment of Forces
The last two updates, here and here, presented the case, forces are lining up; probability’s increasing for a downside reversal.
This update will complete the session (so far) on that potential.
Let’s not forget, behind-the-scenes (for years) stories like this and this continue to bubble to the surface.
Biotech IBB, Weekly
Last week’s trading range was significantly more narrow (with volume higher) than the week prior.
The chart shows IBB finished at or near the top of the wedge boundary and in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ position.
The ‘more’ promised at the end of yesterday’s update; Friday’s daily volume contracted on the test.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Looking at The Inside
Yesterday’s update showed biotech sector IBB, in a bearish divergence.
The list of components can be found here.
For today, we’ll look at some of the technical characteristics pointing to potential for a downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Biotech IBB, Weekly
A wedge typically occurs at the end of a move, whether up or down (not advice, not a recommendation).
Price action has met the ‘measured move’ target and even gone slightly above.
The potential bearish MACD is shown.
If the coming week is flat or down, we’ll (likely) have a tick lower in MACD, completing the divergence signal.
Fo the next update, we’ll discuss a much larger ‘terminating’ wedge and more.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Daily & Weekly
The daily chart of IBB (left), and the weekly, are both posting bearish divergences.
Caveat: Strictly speaking, on the weekly chart, the MACD has yet to tick lower.
However, if next week’s action holds steady or posts lower, we’ll likely get that signal as well (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Tomorrow, Friday
Will tomorrow post a new daily high for ALL, and make it an even thirteen?
For that matter, why focus on (boring) insurance, anyway?
Probably, the best answer can be found here and here.
Many are focused on precious metals, bonds and the A.I. bubble.
Not a bad thing in itself.
However, behind the scenes, insurance companies are lumbering like The Great White Whale.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Is the Top, In?
Looks like ALL, has ‘double topped’ the all-time highs.
Then, today, trend breakdown (not advice, not a recommendation).
Typical market action is a test of the break (higher action).
Let’s see if it happens.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Demarcation Line
In the realm of the surreal, we have this.
Ox Talks gives an update on the latest psychosis concerning funding related to A.I.
All-of-a-sudden, for the first time in history, semiconductors, the chips themselves, are ‘investible assets’; time stamp: 3:08, in the link (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Demand Evaporating?
Today was supposed to be the day when semis continued their short squeeze grind higher.
It didn’t happen.
Instead, we had various reversal patterns and (down) trendline confirmations.
The trend, channel, and minor wedge on MU, is a good example (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Ruh, Roh Moment
While the Dow, S&P, Qs and the SOXX all seem ready to continue higher, KKR, is absent from the party.
There’s an up-thrust reversal from resistance, then decline to minor support (dashed grey line).
Volume is increasing as price action nears that level.
The suggestion then, is the support will fail (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Trading Channel, Trend Line
Two weeks ago, was this update:
“Price action’s been hitting and bouncing off support for nearly two months; finally, penetrating and closing below that line, last Thursday.”
With that said, we had the definition of a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.
So, what’s happened since then?
AutoZone AZO, Daily
At this point, the rally’s in-progress (not advice, not a recommendation).
If AZO continues higher from here and maintains the right side trendline, we get to ‘gap closure’ somewhere around August 25th.
For the histrions amongst us, August 25th, was the market high in 1987.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
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