Bonds (TLT) Under Pressure

March 29, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TLT Tags: , , , Leave a comment

From Wedge to Channel

The futures market open is just hours away.

We’re about to find out if the downside pressure on bonds (rates higher) is going to continue.

Before the chart, let’s go back about a year, to this update.

From that, we have:

“If bonds break lower and rates go (significantly) higher, just think of the chaos.”

Chaos? Well, Let’s See:

Over 3,500 US Troops Arrive In Middle East As Houthis Enter War, link here

North Sea Oil Fight Escalates As Starmer Cites Legal Limits, link here.

“Clearly A Concerted Effort”: Foiled Terror Attack At BofA’s Paris HQ Tied To Mideast War, France Says, link here.

Trump Ready To Take US Arms For Ukraine & Divert Them To Middle East, link here.

Hormuz Bypasses Maxed Out: Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Record 7 MMb/d, As UAE Fujairah Crude Loadings Reach Capacity, link here.

Maersk Slaps Emergency Fuel Surcharge As War Upends Marine Supply Chains, link here.

Fractured Jawbone: Crude Jumps, Stocks Dump, & Bond Fears Shift To Economic Slump, link here.

Scary Movie:

With all of that, rates have remained high, inching higher, but have not gone ‘significantly’ higher.

Then, there’s the bond chart

Long Bonds TLT, Monthly

With two trading days left in the month, we can already see, heavy downside volume (black arrow).

It’s also possible, the wedge from the prior update has morphed into a downside channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Incoming ‘Event’

For bonds to decisively break to the upside, pushing rates lower, the ‘herd’ needs to be re-directed.

To that effect, the scuttlebutt is, there may be an ‘event’ on the horizon (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Fails & Falls

March 28, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Ed Dowd, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, TLT, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

One Reversal, After Another

‘The press refuses to report the facts’.

Before we get to Nvidia, let’s start with that nugget, just out, at this link (Time Stamp: 3:40).

How about another one.

‘Iran’s going to win this war’ (Time Stamp: 8:00).

Ok, one more, then the chart.

‘The bond market’s just getting killed’ (Time Stamp: 9:05).

Interest rates higher, not lower, has been a strategic premise on this site, for years (not advice, not a recommendation).

Supporting that statement, links here, here, here and here, all the way back to 2023 (at least).

As always, price action itself, will let us know if an upside reversal is at hand.

Now, on to Nvidia.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Price action has successively attempted to push above resistance levels, then printed an ‘up-thrust’, and reversed.

Nvidia finished the week, closing at 167.52, with support (closes) at 167.02 -167.03, printed on 9/5/25 and 7/22/25, respectively.

‘Normal’ market behavior is a bounce off support to test underside resistance … the key word being ‘normal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Lastly, here’s the latest from Ed Dowd, concerning Nvidia, link here, (Time Stamp: 24:48).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Straight of Hormuz

March 27, 2026 By in Food Supply, Genesis 41, YouTube Black Swan Leave a comment

Choke Point

Take aways from Black Swan YouTube channel, link here

Prolonged disorder

Structural energy shock

No clear resolution

Fertilizer constrictions to (potentially) cause the greatest food insecurity challenge in history

On it goes.

The entire video is worth the time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Breakout … SOXX

March 26, 2026 By in SOXX, SOXS, Semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence, SOXX-26-01, SOXS-26-01 Leave a comment

Will The Gap Be Filled?

The SOXX opened gap-down and has continued lower during the early session.

Some gaps are never filled.

The chart from yesterday’s post has been updated with today’s action so far.

It’s clear, the market has respected the Fibonacci sequence.

Now that it’s obvious, it’s likely to morph into something else (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Based on where we are in this historic market bubble (i.e., continuing lower), probabilities for retrace and gap-fill at this point, are low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short Trade SOXX-26-01

When an attempt was made to sell short SOXX, increase position size, the broker indicated “no additional shares available”.

That short was quickly covered (with profit) and another short opened via 3X inverse fund SOXS, as SOXS-26-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trading leveraged inverse funds on a medium-term basis requires more active monitoring, so one does not get whacked with an adverse move. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Top, Gap-Fill

March 25, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-26-01, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Checklist Complete?

The SOXX closed above resistance, discussed in previous updates, here, here, and here.

This is The Danger Point®, where we have an instability.

Price action needs to decide if that was it for the upside or if somehow, we’re on to new all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the chart shows, today was Day 21 from the February 25th, all-time high.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

We have the following technical conditions:

Penetration above established resistance levels.

Fibonacci 21-Days, from all-time highs.

Fibonacci 13-Days, from the March 9th low.

Fibonacci 61.8% retrace on print basis and 50% retrace on close basis.

With that said, SOXX sold short; trade SOXX-26-01, stop at today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tomfoolery, Between Sessions

March 24, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Genesis 41, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Navigating Through The Fray

First, it was Monday’s pre-market spike on (so-called) news of on-going ‘negotiations‘, which the other side says, didn’t happen.

Then, today, just after the close we have another spike on reports of a ceasefire.

While we’re at it, let’s add this into the mix, link here.

That last datapoint and maybe more like it to come, could be the real problem on a go-forward basis (not advice, not a recommendation).

With all that said, the ‘spikes’ are helping to inch the SOXX higher. Tomorrow is Day 21, from all-time highs.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

We’re posting a segment of price action to show after-hours trading is higher, very near the blue resistance line.

A significant print above that line at the next session, would put the SOXX in up-thrust (potential reversal) position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, in a ‘Coil’

March 23, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Last Gasp, Gap Fill?

It’s not unrealistic to say, there’s a struggle going on in the SOXX.

The last update showed the potential failure of gap-close attempts, link here.

Today’s action so far, looks like another battle to post into that area (not advice, not a recommendation).

The level to watch, is from March 11th, at 342.09.

A close significantly above, puts the SOXX, in up-thrust (potential reversal) position.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds at Inflection

March 22, 2026 By in Bonds, TLT Leave a comment

Market Down, Bonds Down

Back in the day, when the market headed south, bonds typically head higher (rates lower).

Since January, when the markets reversed to the downside, bonds (TLT) blipped higher but then reversed as well.

Now, they have closed below support.

As the chart shows in the upper left, the forty-year bull market has ended.

Now, we’re in a new paradigm (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Breakaway … SOXX

March 21, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, Nasdaq, NVDA, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-26-04, YouTube Black Swan 2 Comments

Some Gaps, Never Filled

The day after the SOXX, topped on February 25th, was, this update.

In the case of Nvidia, it never printed or closed above the high reached on that day.

Well, the SOXX never made it back either.

Then, March 3rd, we have what looks like a ‘breakaway’ gap.

There’ve been at least two attempts to close that gap.

One of those attempts, a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up, which may have failed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Other markets have rolled over as well; the Dow, S&P, the Qs, Biotech and so on (not advice, not a recommendation).

This just out, shows the typical response to an oil price shock, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Record Volume, in ‘CORN’

March 20, 2026 By in Corn, Derecho, Teucrium Leave a comment

Most, Since June of 2010

There’s massive volume in the Teucrium CORN, tracking fund.

The chart at left, is a Fibonacci 8-Day, with four more days to go before the current bar is complete.

The last time there was volume anywhere close to this, was back in June of 2020, several weeks before 10% of the U.S. corn crop was wiped out by an inland ‘hurricane’.

That incident launched a rally in CORN, lasting into the early part of 2022, gaining over 160% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279