Never-Before-Seen
Trading in Teucrium Fund CORN, is at levels not seen in its history.
If we use the prior example of when there was an aberration in volume, there was a weather ‘event‘ six-to-eight weeks later (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Different Approach, Similar Result
Yesterday’s update presented a scenario, suggesting lower prices for silver are more probable (medium term) than higher.
Another method to use for what might be next, linked here.
Important to note, the above link makes the assumption we’re in a ‘breakout’ scenario; different from ‘we’re still in a meltdown’ scenario (not advice, not a recommendation).
However, the following comment from that post sums up the situation fairly well as do the replies:
‘So difficult because in addition to historical patterns, we’re in unprecedented times.’
All the more reason to stay focused on price action; not the news, experts or pundits.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Possibilities for The Present
Is it the same as ’08, but worse?
For old-timers who were there during the crash of ’08, and ’00, and ’98, all the way back to ’87, the pattern of ’08, was different.
During the ’08 crisis, you could see (and feel) in real time, how the burden was transferred by decree, to the public.
Along with that, was:
‘If this thing somehow manages to pull out, the next time (and there will be a next time) there’s no saving it’.
Re-Visiting, ’08
Data’s accumulating, building the case, we’re back to the ’08 playbook (not advice, not a recommendation).
2008 All Over Again- Jamie Dimon Says Defaults Are Coming, link here.
They Rebuilt the 2008 Crash Machine — And Put It In Your Retirement Account, link here.
‘I Expect Something Similar To 2008’ Warns Trader | Todd Horwitz, link here.
Memory Lane
Just a reminder of what it was like back then, this link.
Flash Crash ’10
Since we’re building a case, let’s throw in this, link here.
‘all the way down … 79s are tradinggggggg…’
Silver Then, Silver Now
So, how did silver behave during that blow-up in ’08. Did ‘everybody’ flock to safety?
The short answer is no. Silver got hammered; down nearly 60%, right along with the rest.
Only afterwards, did it launch into a bull move. All of which, brings us to today.
Silver Tracking ETF, SLV, Monthly
Looking at the chart, one can immediately understand what’s being suggested (not advice, not a recommendation).
A decline of 60% from the January 29th, high, puts SLV in the vicinity of 43 – 44 (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
A Generational Top?
It almost goes without saying, market events are taking place on a massive scale.
Ed Dowd, has said repeatedly in his interviews:
‘When it’s all said and done, I expect Nvidia to be down 80% to 90%’ (not advice not a recommendation).
However, there are others besides Nvidia, with significant downside potential.
Case in point, Texas Instruments.
There’ve been several recent updates on TXN. The most significant one, linked here.
It’s possible, right now, today, is a test of the all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).
Texas Instruments TXN, Weekly
One thing can be said with some certainty, we’re at The Danger Point®, where risk on a short is least (not advice, not a recommendation).
As the February update shows, it’s been 26-years since the other massive upward spike in Force Index.
Last time that happened, TXN imploded 87% (not advice, to a recommendation).
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‘He’s Short, Everything (almost)’
In case you missed it, the following is a time stamp list for key items from David Lin’s interview with Todd, ‘Bubba’ Horwitz of BubbaTrading.com
Testing the 200 Day MA, Time Stamp: 9:40
Economic ‘warning signs’, Time Stamp: 14:40
Fed is out of bullets, Time Stamp: 19:20
Long Grains, Time Stamp: 21:30
Fertilizer Costs, Time Stamp 22:40
‘Fund Money’ (going to grain markets), Time Stamp: 24:08
‘End the Fed’, Time Stamp: 25:30
Trouble ahead, Time Stamp: 26:00
Watch for 40% – 60%, ‘haircut’, Time Stamp: 27:30
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Set-Up & Go
The set-up in Intel (INTC) is more than just ‘selling the rip’.
We have a repeating pattern with a high expectation.
Meaning, the probabilities of a reversal to the downside with this type of set-up is greater than 50% chance (not advice, not a recommendation).
As of this update (11:10 a.m., EST) INTC has decisively penetrated support and is now hovering at that level.
What’s missing in the way of confirmation is either a reversal bar today, or a new daily low during tomorrow’s session.
Intel INTC, Daily
With the mega-cap Nvidia almost instantly retracing its opening highs, it may be leading the pack lower.
If that’s the case, the entire sector is at risk of following NVDA to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Repeating Pattern
If intel (INTC) opens at the level shown (magenta arrow), it’s going to post a new daily high, above January 22nd high.
Doing that, would put INTC in ‘up-thrust‘ position (not advice not a recommendation).
Intel INTC, Daily
Today’s open will be Fibonacci 55-Days (-2) from the January 22nd high.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Fibonacci Levels
The markets are higher in the after-hours session on news of a potential cease-fire, link here.
Nvidia’s no exception.
However, as the chart shows, it’s right at a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace (as of 7:13 p.m., EST).
If this level holds, or if NVDA moves higher, tomorrow’s session is likely to be quite interesting (not advice not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Using The Grind
Today’s buoyancy in the semiconductor sector, SOXX, gave an opportunity to assess the situation.
The decision was made to exit the short on the sector itself (via SOXS), and initiate individual short positions based on price action.
Some equities are stronger, some weaker; AMD is one of the latter.
With that said, AMD, sold short @ 220.18, as AMD-26-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Close for the session just happened to be exactly at 220.18, putting the trade at break-even.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Implosion Continues
Several updates from Michael Bordenaro, link here and here paint a bleak picture for fast-food and the ‘gig’ economy.
From all-time highs to last Thursday’s close, DASH, is down over 45%.
The chart above, is brief but effective.
It shows a trading channel with price action contacting the right side, a Fibonacci 5-Weeks from the pivot lower (not advice, not a recommendation).
Let’s add, the week labeled as “1”, is also a Fibonacci 21-Weeks from all-time highs.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The Danger Point® 