Gold Miners to Rally?

April 4, 2026 By in Daniela Cambone, GDX, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners Leave a comment

Two Schools of Thought

Yesterday’s post discussed the apparent 50% retrace, pivot point, in Senior Miners GDX, link here.

Now, we have this just out from Daniela Cambone of ITM Trading, link here.

Gold discussion begins at Time Stamp: 2:30

Monday’s trading is likely to give clues on the next (sustainable) direction for the miners (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … at the Pivot

April 3, 2026 By in Carl Vernon, Food Supply, GDX, GDXJ, Genesis 41, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Holiday Turns, The Speck, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Retrace to Reversal?

This past Wednesday, Senior Gold Miners GDX, retraced to 50%.

Thursday, price action tested that level and closed lower.

On the chart below, we’re going to present price action facts; leaving out ‘hyperinflation’, YouTube grifting, ‘dollar destruction’, ‘it’s all ending tomorrow’, click-bait.

Before getting to the chart, let’s add, on this site, it’s always been about the food supply first, then gold and silver, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

The video at left, is five years old.

Since then, there’s been a massive learning curve concerning livestock.

All but one of those hens is gone now, she being retired, having produced 850 – 900 eggs.

Others have been brought in to continue the supply.

Now, on to the click-bait 🙂

Senior Miners GDX, Daily

GDX, posted an up-thrust, March 2nd, then collapsed a whopping -32.8%; read that, as ‘coincidental’ 33%.

It’s now retraced to 50%, and also in a potential channel.

Volume for yesterday contracted on the test, but it was also a pre-holiday trading day.

So, let’s just note that and not put undue weight on the fact, commitment to the upside was weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … ‘Gut Punch’

April 2, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-02, SOXX Leave a comment

‘Threatening’ Price Action

As of this post (11:31 a.m., EST) SOXX, price action is threatening to print a new daily high.

No matter what direction the market’s going to decide, new bull move or beginning of the bear, it will not let anyone get aboard comfortably.

To use a quote from yesterday:

“This is what markets do”

If this ‘last chance’ at posting a new high fails and the SOXX retreats from here, it’s possible the bulls have shown exhaustion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Once again, we’re at The Danger Point®, where the risk on a short-trade, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … at the Trend Line

April 1, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Another Reversal?

Nvidia penetrated support and rebounded.

Now, it’s near a contact point on a downtrend line, that’s also part of a trading channel.

Behavior of the market as it pushed above resistance (up-thrust), then below support (spring) is clearly demonstrated.

This is what markets do, have done, for over a century.

As far back as 1902, in Wyckoff’s autobiography, he figured out that such movements have ‘nothing to do with valuations’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Using the ‘Retrace’

March 31, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, GLW, GW-26-09, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-01, SOXX 2 Comments

Who’s Retracing The Least?

Today was a sharply higher in the SOXX, with 50% retrace (from the 3/25, high) on both a close and print basis.

The short trade, SOXS-26-01, was stopped-out (with profit) as yesterdays’ low was hit.

Looking at price action, Corning GLW, had ‘ease-of-movement’ lower yesterday, only partially retraced today (unlike SOXX and NVDA, for example).

In addition, the retrace was 38.2%, on both a print and close basis (lower than SOXX).

Repositioned short, as GLW-26-09, with stop at Monday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Blip and Dip

March 30, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-01, SOXX 2 Comments

Then, There’s The Channel

The last update said ‘normal’ market behavior, is for some kind of upward test (not advice, not a recommendation).

Well, this morning’s ‘blip’, could be it.

Adding some intrigue, the attached chart, NVDA on a weekly basis.

If we count all-time highs as Fibonacci Week 1, then we see (aggressively), pivoting lower into a trend and potential channel on Week 21.

This is scary business.

It implies, the ‘demand’ side of this channel (left blue line), is a long way away to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds (TLT) Under Pressure

March 29, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TLT Tags: , , , Leave a comment

From Wedge to Channel

The futures market open is just hours away.

We’re about to find out if the downside pressure on bonds (rates higher) is going to continue.

Before the chart, let’s go back about a year, to this update.

From that, we have:

“If bonds break lower and rates go (significantly) higher, just think of the chaos.”

Chaos? Well, Let’s See:

Over 3,500 US Troops Arrive In Middle East As Houthis Enter War, link here

North Sea Oil Fight Escalates As Starmer Cites Legal Limits, link here.

“Clearly A Concerted Effort”: Foiled Terror Attack At BofA’s Paris HQ Tied To Mideast War, France Says, link here.

Trump Ready To Take US Arms For Ukraine & Divert Them To Middle East, link here.

Hormuz Bypasses Maxed Out: Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Record 7 MMb/d, As UAE Fujairah Crude Loadings Reach Capacity, link here.

Maersk Slaps Emergency Fuel Surcharge As War Upends Marine Supply Chains, link here.

Fractured Jawbone: Crude Jumps, Stocks Dump, & Bond Fears Shift To Economic Slump, link here.

Scary Movie:

With all of that, rates have remained high, inching higher, but have not gone ‘significantly’ higher.

Then, there’s the bond chart

Long Bonds TLT, Monthly

With two trading days left in the month, we can already see, heavy downside volume (black arrow).

It’s also possible, the wedge from the prior update has morphed into a downside channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Incoming ‘Event’

For bonds to decisively break to the upside, pushing rates lower, the ‘herd’ needs to be re-directed.

To that effect, the scuttlebutt is, there may be an ‘event’ on the horizon (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Fails & Falls

March 28, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Ed Dowd, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, TLT, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

One Reversal, After Another

‘The press refuses to report the facts’.

Before we get to Nvidia, let’s start with that nugget, just out, at this link (Time Stamp: 3:40).

How about another one.

‘Iran’s going to win this war’ (Time Stamp: 8:00).

Ok, one more, then the chart.

‘The bond market’s just getting killed’ (Time Stamp: 9:05).

Interest rates higher, not lower, has been a strategic premise on this site, for years (not advice, not a recommendation).

Supporting that statement, links here, here, here and here, all the way back to 2023 (at least).

As always, price action itself, will let us know if an upside reversal is at hand.

Now, on to Nvidia.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Price action has successively attempted to push above resistance levels, then printed an ‘up-thrust’, and reversed.

Nvidia finished the week, closing at 167.52, with support (closes) at 167.02 -167.03, printed on 9/5/25 and 7/22/25, respectively.

‘Normal’ market behavior is a bounce off support to test underside resistance … the key word being ‘normal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Lastly, here’s the latest from Ed Dowd, concerning Nvidia, link here, (Time Stamp: 24:48).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Straight of Hormuz

March 27, 2026 By in Food Supply, Genesis 41, YouTube Black Swan Leave a comment

Choke Point

Take aways from Black Swan YouTube channel, link here

Prolonged disorder

Structural energy shock

No clear resolution

Fertilizer constrictions to (potentially) cause the greatest food insecurity challenge in history

On it goes.

The entire video is worth the time.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Breakout … SOXX

March 26, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-01, SOXX, SOXX-26-01 Leave a comment

Will The Gap Be Filled?

The SOXX opened gap-down and has continued lower during the early session.

Some gaps are never filled.

The chart from yesterday’s post has been updated with today’s action so far.

It’s clear, the market has respected the Fibonacci sequence.

Now that it’s obvious, it’s likely to morph into something else (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Based on where we are in this historic market bubble (i.e., continuing lower), probabilities for retrace and gap-fill at this point, are low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short Trade SOXX-26-01

When an attempt was made to sell short SOXX, increase position size, the broker indicated “no additional shares available”.

That short was quickly covered (with profit) and another short opened via 3X inverse fund SOXS, as SOXS-26-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trading leveraged inverse funds on a medium-term basis requires more active monitoring, so one does not get whacked with an adverse move. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279