SOXX … ‘Exhaustion’ Gap?

May 27, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-05, SOXX, Thoughtful Money Leave a comment

We’ll Know Soon

It was an ‘outside-down’ day for the SOXX.

Even with that, we still have what looks like an exhaustion gap, yet to be filled (chart below).

Taking the entire pre-market and after-market sessions into account, as of this post (5:45 p.m., EST), the SOXX has retraced to near the 38% level (not advice, not a recommendaiton).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

As Ed Dowd said in a recent interview:

‘Whenever this (A.I., semiconductor)) unwind happens, it’s going to be quick.’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I … ‘Must Watch’

May 26, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, House of El - AI 2 Comments

It’s All In The ‘Metrics’

This link, here, is twenty-four minutes and seven seconds of truth on what’s really happening with A.I. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, the YouTube channel has much more on the topic but the link above is a good place to start.

From a former engineer, subjected to ‘Six Sigma’ nonsense back in the day, I feel for the engineers having to pump up metrics for the ‘Leaderboard’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Cadence … All-Time-Highs

May 25, 2026 By in CDNS, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

The Set-Up, Again

Last Friday, CDNS printed and closed at all-time highs.

Looking at the chart, it’s the all-familiar pattern (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Like, Never Before’

May 24, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Ed Dowd, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-04, SOXX, SPY, Thoughtful Money, TLT Leave a comment

Unprecedented

The market rally’s unprecedented; like never before.

Will it be the same on the way down? (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adam Taggart says in the latest Ed Dowd interview:

‘Vertical moves don’t correct by going sideways’

Some Highlights

The entire interview is worth the time. However, some excerpts are below. Time stamps are in (parentheses).

Market summary (2:20)

Double ordering of inventory (8:28)

Helium shortage (9:00)

The beginning of the end (9:30)

Bonds, long term lows (10:48)

All you need is one company to slow ordering (13:30)

‘You don’t crash from tops’ (14:18)

‘I’ve never seen anything like this’ (14:40)

Price washout, sets up opportunities (19:30)

A.I. creating more problems than it solves (43:20)

Nvidia to retrace 80% – 90% (45:30)

This is my third rodeo … it’s all echoing (47:25)

‘It’s going to be fast’ (48:07)

Oil breakout (49:15)

Gold, source of liquidity (59:20)

Buffett’s at 40% cash (1:01:00)

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Diving into Details

May 23, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Dr. Elder, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-04, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Hourly Numbers

When you add it all up, if the SOXX was going to reverse from all-time highs into a sustained correction, Friday’s close would be a good place to start (not advice, not a recommendation).

Prior updates have been consistent with the (Wyckoff) premise, upward thrusts are covering less net distance.

SOXX Hourly Details

First, the markets are fractal.

We see the same repeating pattern of ‘spring to up-thrust’, on the hourly as on longer timeframes.

Second, tops and bottoms are different.

The characteristic of the ‘spring’ bottom and the ‘up-thrust’ top are how markets behave.

Bottoms, ruled by fear, typically sharp and well defined.

Tops, ruled by hope, typically wide and rounded.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

The top shown above, is what David Weis used to call, The Danger Point®, where risk (cost) of being wrong (on a short, in this case), is least.

In his video, he points out this type of action, saying ‘the market could just keep on going … so what’.

His meaning was, it’s the point where there’s instability, therefore, potential for reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

For those who don’t have that video, it is timeless wisdom, still available here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … All-Time Highs

May 22, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-04, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

And Then?

For the past two weeks, the SOXX has been discussed within the context of ‘shortening of the thrust’.

That’s a Wyckoff adage:

‘When a move is nearing its end, the amount of net progress (between waves) will become shorter’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Even though the past four trading days have closed higher, SOXX net upward progress, is still getting shorter.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

Next update, we’ll move closer-in to the hourly.

That timeframe shows a clear ‘spring to up-thrust’ set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Walmart Whacked

May 21, 2026 By in Ox Talks, WMT Leave a comment

Fuel Price Hit

Walmart slammed lower on earnings.

From a price action standpoint, it sets up several interesting dynamics.

As we’ll see below, the long-term monthly view, shows a bearish MACD divergence (not advice, not a recommendation).

On that same chart, there’s (so far) an outside-down bar, otherwise known as a ‘key reversal’.

Daily action to be covered in a subsequent update.

Walmart WMT, Monthly

Going all the way back to 1995, the long-term view shows indicators like MACD, have literally gone ‘off the chart’.

Look at the size of the MACD divergence when compared to the past 30-years!

Meanwhile, as Ox Talks tells us, the crowd seems to be partying like it’s 1999.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

ON Semi, Tests Reversal

May 20, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, AVGO, NVDA, ON, ON-26-01, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TSM, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

While Nvidia Erodes, After-Market

Five trading days ago, On Semi, posted its all-time high.

The difference between ON, and semi leaders like, NVDA, TSM, and AGVO, the prior all-time high for ON, was years ago, back in July of 2023.

Since that time, it’s been in a wide trading range.

ON Semiconductor, ON, Daily Close

The standard set-up, seen many times, labeled as ‘spring to up-thrust’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Depending on how price action goes from here, we’ll update accordingly.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond ‘Stick-Save?’

May 19, 2026 By in 2000 - 2001, 2007 - 2008, Bonds, Interest Rates, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, TLT 2 Comments

Back, in the Day

It’s no secret, bonds (TLT) are at a critical juncture; primed to break significantly lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Breakdown, is almost a ‘no-brainer’.

Almost.

For those old enough, remember back in the early 2000s, the S&P had formed a near-perfect Head & Shoulders?

Remember, how price action was printing lower, ready to penetrate the down-sloping neckline?

Then, just as it got there (week of 10/11/02), from out of nowhere, came a launch upward that didn’t stop until October of 2007?

Rember that?

Of course, we found out later, the ‘hidden hand’ was at work, preventing a melt-down; leading us to where we are today. 🙂

Let’s all keep that in mind as we watch the bond market flirt with disaster (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Affirm Reversal: Update

May 18, 2026 By in AFRM, AFRM-26-01 Leave a comment

Multiple Tests

The last update on AFRM, link here, said to watch for a test of the reversal.

After that, there was a test; in fact, two of them.

The last one (so far) was this past Thursday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note how the reversal bar (zoom area) nearly touches the 38.2%, retrace exactly.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279