KKR … Reversal

August 9, 2026 By in DIA, Dow 30, KKR, Nasdaq, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, SPY, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Ruh, Roh Moment

While the Dow, S&P, Qs and the SOXX all seem ready to continue higher, KKR, is absent from the party.

There’s an up-thrust reversal from resistance, then decline to minor support (dashed grey line).

Volume is increasing as price action nears that level.

The suggestion then, is the support will fail (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AutoZone Rally … In Progress

August 8, 2026 By in 1987, AZO, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Trading Channel, Trend Line

Two weeks ago, was this update:

“Price action’s been hitting and bouncing off support for nearly two months; finally, penetrating and closing below that line, last Thursday.”

With that said, we had the definition of a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

So, what’s happened since then?

AutoZone AZO, Daily

At this point, the rally’s in-progress (not advice, not a recommendation).

If AZO continues higher from here and maintains the right side trendline, we get to ‘gap closure’ somewhere around August 25th.

For the histrions amongst us, August 25th, was the market high in 1987.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CAT & AMD … Similar Set-Up

August 7, 2026 By in CAT, AMD Leave a comment

Still Testing?

Is Caterpillar and the overall market (including the semis) going to start next week attempting to move higher?

AMD has been covered over the past several days; like CAT (below), it looks like there could be some upside to test and/or closing of chart gaps (not advice, not a recommendation).

Caterpillar CAT, Daily

The spike higher (on earnings) to resistance could have already been the culmination of the move (from the recent lows) or just the initial sign of demand.

The chart shows, during the downside retrace, volume has contracted three consecutive days, indicating there’s potential for some subsequent action higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AMD … Bulls, Back-Off

August 6, 2026 By in AMD, Semiconductors, SOXX Leave a comment

Volume Contracts

When volume drops off over 50% from one session to the next, it’s significant.

Yesterday’s update was unsure whether AMD was headed straight down, going to test, or morph into something else.

Looking at the chart, so far it’s a test (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll find out tomorrow, if that test is complete.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AMD … Countdown to Collapse?

August 5, 2026 By in AMD, Artificial Intelligence, JBL, JBL-26-07, Semiconductors 1 Comment

It’s The ‘Fundamentals’ … Not

AMD is not the only ticker with a perfect, or near-perfect Fibonacci count; Jabil (JBL) has one as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

For JBL, from the all-time highs to today’s nascent reversal, is a Fibonacci 34 Days.

Seen in the AMD chart, its Fibonacci counts thus far, indicate probability for inflection points.

As is typical with this type of analysis, as soon as it’s obvious, it morphs into something else.

The question for AMD: Will it post straight down from here, a test, then down, a recovery higher, or something else?

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mass Screaming Hysteria

August 4, 2026 By in Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge Leave a comment

FOMO

According to the finical press, it was mass screaming hysteria as stocks ‘short squeezed’ to all-time highs, link here.

However, one sector noticeably absent from the crazed party, were the semiconductors.

In fact, during the past month or so, the SOXX has gone from market leader to laggard (not advice, not a recommendation).

As we’ll see below, there’s also an interesting pattern; an a-b-c correction to a minor up-thrust.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note the inflection points at Days 1 and 3, with today, a potential inflection, at Day 5.

This price action is typical of a move to higher levels, potentially the top of the range and farther.

However, if the SOXX stalls at this point and reverses, it indicates severe weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CTAS … ‘Island Gap Reversal’

August 3, 2026 By in CTAS Leave a comment

Rare Occurrence

Island gap reversals are rare.

When one happens, it’s best to take note and determine the opportunities.

In the case of CTAS, it’s posting a bearish reversal.

Today, may have been a test or that may be yet to come (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow is Day 5, from last Wednesday’s high.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

ON Semi … After-Hours

August 2, 2026 By in ON, Semiconductors, SOXX Leave a comment

Higher or Lower?

ON Semiconductor, is scheduled to report after-hours on Monday, link here.

If the overall sector (SOXX) is still continuing an upside squeeze, then ON could break higher on the earnings (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Microsoft Hits The Wall

August 1, 2026 By in Spring-to-Up-Thrust, MSFT, Software Leave a comment

The Resistance Wall

It’s either good or bad, depending on one’s perspective.

Since, at this juncture, we’re looking primarily for short-side opportunities, it’s a good thing.

Upside risk is being reduced (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart below, shows a familiar pattern emerging.

Microsoft MSFT, Daily

Price action from the recent lows is loosely following a Fibonacci sequence.

If that correlation holds, the next count is Day 34, August 12th, a Wednesday, release of CPI as the main event (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

PAYX … Reversal & Test

July 31, 2026 By in ADP, PAYX, PAYX-26-01 Leave a comment

Same As ADP

Both PAYX and ADP (yesterday), spiked above resistance on the same day, then reversed.

They’re moving in unison; today was a ‘test’ for both.

Tests can last one day or many. They can pass or fail. Anything can happen.

From a technical perspective, PAYX, is the weaker of the two, having retraced to the 50% level, not higher to 61.8%, as ADP (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279