Decision Point: Silver

July 19, 2026 By in London Metal Exchange, SLV Leave a comment

Where to, From Here?

The days of breathless news stories about flying silver bars to the London Metal Exchange, are long gone.

Seems like years ago, when it’s only been nine-months.

Of course, we’re still being barraged with forecasts of $500/oz. silver or ‘Can’t go below $50/oz.’; two opposing ends, both of which, are happening as we speak. 🙂

With that, let’s leave the drama behind and look at what the market’s actually saying about itself.

Silver SLV, Daily Close

There it is.

We’re exactly at a Fibonacci 61.8% projection from the all-time highs.

Price action’s been in a trading channel for months. Now, momentum appears to have slowed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AutoZone’s ‘Gap’ Performance

July 18, 2026 By in AZO, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Transportation Leave a comment

Probable (gap) Fill

Past performance is no guarantee, but it can tell us what’s probable.

In the case of AutoZone, the last time there was a significant gap lower open, 68-pts, was December 9th, 2025.

The update on January 9th of this year, posed the question, if the gap would be filled.

That gap was indeed filled and brings us to now.

That is, not 68-points, but an eye-watering 201-points.

AutoZone, AZO, Weekly

There are two ways to view the gap:

It’s a ‘breakaway’ gap, implying that AZO is not coming back. Or, it’s a ‘common’ gap, which is typically filled (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll throw into the mix, we have an upcoming Fed meeting late this month, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Credo, Ready for Retrace

July 17, 2026 By in CRDO, Ox Talks Leave a comment

Next Tuesday, Day 21

For those keeping up with reports from ‘Ox Talks’, latest one here, one gets the sense, ‘the pig is already in the python’, and events could start to happen fast (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, CRDO, posted its all-time high 19-days ago, on June 22nd.

That makes Fibonacci Day 21, this coming Tuesday.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax, Retrace to Resistance

July 16, 2026 By in KMX, Transportation Leave a comment

Reversal on Daily

Today’s daily bar for KMX, is a reversal.

On the weekly, at left, we see a well-defined resistance area that so far, is containing any more upward movement (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Home Depot Reversal

July 15, 2026 By in HD, HD-26-01, Real Estate, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Fibonacci Time Sequence

Home Depot posted its all-time highs years ago, back in 2024.

Since then, it’s been a series of trading ranges with nearly each one, resolving lower.

So, we have an overall downtrend.

The last update, here, presented a potential trading channel, and price action scenario needed to confirm:

“If HD, moves higher, then the set-up is (potentially) invalid. Lower, and we could be in the trading channel”

It turns out, price action did both; it opened higher, then finished outside-down, lower for the day.

The set-up was morphing into something else.

So, the trading action was to stand aside (not advice not a recommendation).

That ‘something else’, may have been today’s (potential) reversal.

Home Depot, HD, Daily

A Fibonacci sequence appears to be in-effect with pivot points, at Fibonacci intervals (so far).

It might not look like much, and if tomorrow’s high exceeds today, it won’t be. 🙂

However, the last up-thrust reversal (middle of the chart), initiated a decline covering around 60-points (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Narrows The Gap

July 14, 2026 By in Federal Reserve, NVDA, SOXX, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Is Tomorrow, The Day?

We have all kinds of Fed related kabuki on tap for tomorrow, link here.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, whatever the Fed says, the beige book or any other ancillary information, is of no-matter to what the market’s actually saying about itself.

In the case of Nvidia and by correlation, the SOXX, gap distance discussed yesterday, is being narrowed.

Nvidia, NVDA, Daily

With the caveat, in the markets, anything can happen, nonetheless we see if NVDA gets to the target level to close the gap, that level is also a 61.8%, Fibonacci retrace (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia ‘Corrects’ Higher

July 13, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors 1 Comment

Targeting Resistance?

June 5th was a 4-pt. downward gap open, then lower close; down 13.56-pts, or -6.20%.

Price action may be targeting this area in an attempt to fill the gap (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Ciena’s ‘Crash’ History

July 12, 2026 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, CIEN, GLW, ON Leave a comment

Multiple (multi-year) Implosions

Since 1998, Ciena has corrected, imploded, or crashed by over 50%, seven times.

Declines like -51.03%, -51.49%, -66.18%, -79.82%, -89.95%, -91.20% and the big one; dot-com era near total wipeout at -98.40%.

So, here we are, market valuations by some measures that long-ago exceeded dot-com numbers (not advice, not a recommendation).

Ciena Corp., CIEN, Quarterly

Unlike Corning and ON Semi, Ciena has (so far) not recovered to dot-com levels.

Notice at the right side, we’ve had five straight quarterly advances with the subsequent open, at-or-near the previous close.

That is, until the current quarter.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Home Depot … Lower?

July 11, 2026 By in HD, Real Estate 1 Comment

The Set-Up

Well, there it is.

You can see what the expectation is for the next open.

If HD, moves higher, then the set-up is (potentially) invalid. Lower, and we could be in the trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Struggle of ON

July 10, 2026 By in ON, Semiconductors, SOXX Leave a comment

Is Today, The Day?

There’s a lot going on, in the chart of ON, at left.

What we’re looking for here, is either a new daily low, or continuation higher into established resistance (not advice, not a recommendation).

Pre-market in the SOXX is lower (as of 8:55 a.m., EST).

Recall, yesterday’s post had it at 13-days since all-time highs for the SOXX.

Looking at the chart of ON, yesterday was Fibonacci Day 8, from the recent lows.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279