Lam Research Implodes

October 21, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Livermore, LRCX, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-14, SOXX 1 Comment

Takes The SOXX, With It

‘Surprises, tend to come in the direction of trend’.

The tenet, taken from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, showing us the direction of trend for LRCX and the overall semiconductor index, is lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the after-hours, LRCX is down hard and the SOXX has taken a hit as well.

So, let’s look at what the SOXX is telling us.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily Close

For about ten trading days, the SOXX moved steadily lower along the ‘demand’ line shown.

Then, it paused for several days with sideways, corrective action.

Now, with the index likely to open lower, next session, the question is, are we at the ‘supply’ side?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

APPL Struggles at The Top

October 20, 2026 By in AAPL Leave a comment

All-Time-Highs

For a Fibonacci five days, AAPL has struggled to push past existing resistance at the all-time highs.

Todays’ close was below that five-day range and the after-hours, is trading lower-still (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax, ‘Channel & ‘Count’

October 19, 2026 By in KMX, KMX-26-14, Transportation Leave a comment

Observing Market Action

CarMax, is posting a series of parallel trading channels with inflection points identified (so far) by a Fibonacci count (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Airbnb … The Big Picture

October 18, 2026 By in ABNB, Real Estate, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Testing The Test

Yesterday’s update showed how Airbnb tested its wide, high-volume breakout with its own wide, high-volume downside.

That move culminated on September 23rd, which in turn, set up a test of those high-volume bars.

All of this action brings us to now.

The chart below, is a 2-Day Close of ABNB, going back to late 2021.

Airbnb ABNB, 2-Day Close

At the right side, we’re using Wyckoff terminology of ‘Up-Thrust’, ‘Sign of Supply’ and ‘Test’.

The up-thrust action penetrated long standing resistance at the far left. Then, reversed lower with what can be called ‘ease of movement’.

Now, we’ve come back up to test the up-thrust area.

Going Nowhere, Fast

It’s true that ABNB has oscillated in a wide range that’s over 100% from lows to highs.

However, there’s been no sustained long-term breakout to the upside.

With that said, ABNB has been posting (since 2020) sideways action.

In Wall St. parlance, a sideways market, is a bear market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Airbnb … Testing its Reversal

October 17, 2026 By in ABN26-07, ABNB, ABNB-26-06, David Weis, Real Estate 5 Comments

Wide, High-Volume Bar(s)

Nearly twenty years ago, David Weis said in his training video:

‘Wide, high-volume bars, tend to be tested’

Now, twenty years later, we see that exact thing happening with Airbnb.

On August 7th, this year, ABNB launched 17.43%, with twice normal volume after an earnings release; links here and here.

So, we have a ‘wide, high-volume bar’.

What’s most likely to happen next?

Airbnb ABNB, Daily

What’s most likely, is the wide bar gets tested.

If we know that wide bars tend to get tested, then trades can be planned accordingly (not advice, not a recommendation).

After the launch phase and during the reversal, ABNB was traded profitably to the downside: ABNB-26-06, and ABNB-26-07.

With that said, what happens next, or what’s likely to happen?

We’ll cover that, in tomorrow’s update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Reading the Tape: Biotech

October 16, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, SPBIO, Wyckoff, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute, XBI, XBI-26-24 Leave a comment

Once You See It.

Legend has it, Wyckoff locked himself in a room with nothing but a stock ticker and telephone; working many hours to decipher what the tape was telling him.

Later, the result of that effort was presented in his seminal text, Studies In Tape Reading, first published in 1910.

One of, if not the most important concept of that effort (also in his training materials) was, ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’

We’re going to use that idea to look at the biotech sector and specifically XBI.

Biotech XBI, Daily

There it is:

We have at least three significant thrusts lower; four if you count the one on August 28th, all of which suggest that XBI is in ‘distribution’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Downtrend

October 15, 2026 By in Biotech, SPBIO, Charles Dow, $SPSIBI, XBI, Linda Raschke, XBI-26-24 Leave a comment

Meets the Definition

We just had a reminder days ago, from Linda Raschke, about the definition of a price action ‘trend’.

For a downtrend, it’s lower lows and lower highs.

When looking at biotech XBI, that’s what we have; a downtrend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

At this point, we’re between ‘spring’ and ‘resistance’.

We see the Fibonacci sequence comes and goes; next up is ‘Day 55’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Palantir at Resistance

October 14, 2026 By in PLTR, Spring-to-Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Reversal?

We have a Fibonacci sequence and a repeating pattern (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Qualcomm Channel

October 13, 2026 By in QCOM, Semiconductors Leave a comment

Reverse Trendline

The segment at left, shows the ‘reverse trendline’ technique in action.

The left side trendline was drawn first (days ago), then brought forward to the most recent high (at No. 1).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Moderna’s ‘Measured Move’

October 12, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, Financial Sector, IBB, IYR, MRNA, Nasdaq, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI, XLF, XLV Leave a comment

From Resistance To Wedge … and Back?

The last update on Moderna, here, said that price action had slammed into resistance.

The chart shows that MRNA, has gone from resistance. to wedge, to measured move.

With the S&P and Qs, stalled at all-time highs, SOXX, DIA, XLF, IYR well off their highs with the biotech sector in an apparent reversal, one has to wonder what’s next (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279