Downtrend Intact
Today’s action moved up, contacting the right side (supply side) trendline from yesterday’s update; then, pulled back.
For the short position, XBI-26-04. shown, the stop is just above today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Trading Channel
Biotech is one of those sectors that’s been elusive, hard to pin down.
The last update was in January, link here.
Note: that update identified the exact high (so far), for the sector; shown as ‘Day 1’, in the chart below.
Since then, it’s been what looks like mindless, sideways congestion; until yesterday, and today.
Before getting to the chart, recall there’s a Fed announcement coming up.
That may bring volatility, or it could be much ado about nothing.
Biotech XBI, Daily
There have been two contact points on the right side (supply side) of the channel; the most recent, during yesterday’s session.
As of this post, there are no short positions (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Next Leg Down?
What if you got a ‘secret’ phone call, telling you to focus on one stock; that it would go farther, last longer, than anyone expected?
It would have worked with Nvidia.
Nvidia’s return from the 2008 low (0.14-split adjusted) to the 2025 high at 212.19, was a mind-blowing 151,464%.
A modest $10,000 turns into $15.2-million.
In the case below, it’s still too early to tell if Corning GLW, could be that stock, but to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
Corning GLW, Daily
Currently, GLW is attempting to close the opening gap.
For the above hypothesis to be remotely viable, GLW, must close lower for the day (not advice, not a recommendation).
In addition, tomorrow’s action needs to be lower as well and stay within the channel, shown (not advice, not a recommendation).
That’s a lot of ‘if, and then’
Let’s see what happens next.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Push to 50%?
The last update had a stop level at 133.24, for short position GLW-26-06.
Once that level was penetrated, the trade was not exited immediately but monitored for a more advantageous (better priced) level.
When it became obvious GLW was likely to close higher for the day (which it did), the trade was covered at 132.984, slightly below the stop level.
Now, we’re on the sidelines watching to see if there’s a reversal at this point or if price action makes it to 50%, and another possible up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
History Repeats?
The last update on Teucrium tracking fund CORN, was in September, link here.
The chart is recreated below, including price action since then.
Key take-away from that September update, was this:
“With that said, let’s watch to see if there’s a test of what looks to be a nascent reversal; proceed with caution”
In the subsequent months, turns out, that was the exact bottom, for CORN.
The ‘test’ happened this past January (not advice, not a recommendation).
Teucrium Fund CORN, Monthly
We’re only half-way through the month and already, there’s a volume surge.
Last time volume had a similar spike after a long quiet spell, was back in June of 2020; ‘coincidentally’, just before The Derecho, link here.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Hundred-Year Extremes
Going all the way back, this link, shows we’ve gone beyond 1929 levels.
It seems, nearly every recession (depression) gets kicked off with a spike in oil prices.
In 2008, USO peaked during the week of July 11, that year.
However, the damage was done.
The S&P (SPY) was already in decline, having peaked the week of October 12th, a year earlier.
Another Extreme
Not to be outdone with the valuation extreme, we have the mutual fund cash extreme at this link.
Mutual fund managers are ‘all-in’, Time Stamp 4:15 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Then, there’s ‘private credit’, link here.
Now, on to the trade du jour.
Corning GLW, Weekly
As GLW, was breaking out from generational highs, three attempts were made to short; result, small losses.
Adjusting Behavior
The most important take-away, is the behavior change as a result of losing entries; that is, stand-aside.
As said many times on this site:
“There’s nothing wrong with being wrong. It’s being wrong and staying wrong that’s the problem”
Once the Fibonacci sequence was identified, link here, short positioning continued.
Next Steps
Anything can happen.
For the chart above, the stop on the -06, trade is last Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
With that high as minor resistance, there’s also the weekly high at 139.63, for additional ‘protection’.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Potential Lower Close
If Corning closes lower, if today posts outside-down, then GLW may be ‘changing hands’ from strong, to weak.
Strong to weak because who else is buying-in at all-time highs, ‘generational highs’ at that, expecting more (sustained) upside (not advice, not a recommendation).
Corning GLW, Daily
There’s so much going on in this chart.
We had a Fibonacci sequence on the way up, link here, and now, it looks like one on the way down (not advice, not a recommendation)
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Test & Reverse
The last update on UBER, identified a potential downside reversal link here.
At that point, it was in ‘test’ phase.
Since then, UBER has posted a new weekly low, confirming the test and now, a reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
With Fibonacci Sequence
The last update on SPOT, identified the retrace targets for a potential reversal, link here.
Price action hit 38%, then printed an up thrust, then a reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
In an almost surreal situation, SPOT has declined 48% on the first leg down, retraced in Fibonacci 21-Days (not shown), all the while, short interest remains muted at just over 3%, listed here.
Where are the bears?
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Last Gasp?
Netflix has been grinding at resistance for over a week with no apparent headway.
With stories like this, all the ‘good’ news may already be out (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The Danger Point® 