SOXX … In The Channel

November 4, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-20, SOXX Leave a comment

Testing Resistance

If we’ve just witnessed the end of the A.I. bubble, the long-awaited unwind has now begun (not advice, not a recommendation).

According to ‘bubble rules’, that unwind takes the sector, primarily the SOXX, all the way back to where the mania began.

Exactly where that level might be, and how long it’s going to take, is the subject for another update … or a series of updates.

Moving on to the chart.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

The attempt to close the gap discussed in this update, only got as far as testing the underside of resistance.

At the time of this post, 8:28 p.m., EST, the SOXX continues to move lower and further away from the ‘test’ area.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … A Gap, Too Far?

November 3, 2026 By in AMD, Artificial Intelligence, AVGO, MU, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-20, SOXX, TSM Leave a comment

AMD, Fails to Boost

At the time of this post, 7:43 p.m., EST, the effect of AMD’s earnings release appears to be fading (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fading not only for AMD, but for those that rose higher in sympathy: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, and MU, have all given up their sympathetic gains.

Depending on what happens overnight, the SOXX may have re-established its trading channel.

If so, that will be discussed in tomorrow’s update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Below ‘July Lows’

November 2, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Edward Dowd, Semiconductors, SOXX 1 Comment

Is It Over?

Today was follow-through from last Friday’s -8.24%, pummeling.

According to Ed Dowd, time stamp 14:50, link here, that’s the beginning of the end for the A.I. bubble (not advice, not a reocmmendation).

However, from the chart we see that today’s thrust lower had less volume, less down travel, and much less down energy.

With those conditions in place, the huge gap (for potential fill) is not that far away (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Top 1%

November 1, 2026 By in AAPL, AMZN, Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, INTC, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, The Top 1% Leave a comment

Ed Dowd Interview

There’s no government ‘bail-out’ for the A.I. bubble.

That’s the assessment from Ed Dowd during this interview, link here.

Just three days ago, that same question was discussed in the comments section, here.

The following are (approximate) time stamps for topics covered:

2:15: Bogus employment numbers

4:44: Amazon slowdown

5:20: Trump pumping Intel

5:45: Demand destruction

5:50: AAPL earnings Monday

6:40: Top 10% supporting the economy

6:50: Housing is dead

7:30: Concentration of wealth

8:20: Construction on Data Centers

8:28: Only healthcare is growing (could it be…)

10:00: Semis 19% of S&P 500

12:50: Nvidia

14:00: Intel

15:20: Semis and the July ‘low’

15:25: Semis, leading indicator

25:20: A.I. Bailout

26:14: Congress legislation, ‘No bailout’

27:00: Fed won’t bailout tech

28:45: Insurance bailout?

30:30: Insurance disaster

32:20: Watch the CCC bonds

33:10: Nvidia will ‘miss’

46:08: Gold and risk-off

46:40: Gold to $10,000 by 2030

47:00: Deflationary ‘scare’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The CAT Breakdown

October 31, 2026 By in CAT, Engineering & Construction 2 Comments

Retrace to 666?

Caterpillar is already down – 42%, from its all-time high set on June 30th, this year.

Could it go lower?

As the tagline suggests, there might be a retrace to target level(s) into this coming Tuesday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Caterpillar CAT, Daily Close

This could be a bit scary, if it works out.

Also, since today is Saturday, be on the lookout for some other site (or an A.I. bot) stealing the analysis this coming week … not making that up.

Note: The three red arrows are Full Moon(s).

Not making that up, either 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Implodes

October 30, 2026 By in INTC, Semiconductors, SOXX Leave a comment

Capitulation or Kick-Off?

The SOXX was down hard on heavy volume, led by one of the laggards, Intel.

Meanwhile, we see the SOXX net distance (down) is either constant, or slowing.

Volume could be a ‘kick-off’ to lower levels, or a temporary ‘capitulation’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the massive gap

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax … Friday, ‘Day 13’

October 29, 2026 By in KMX, Transportation 3 Comments

Repeating Channels

The chart segment shows KMX, is currently in a channel with tomorrow, as Fibonacci Day 13 from the October 14th lows.

All trendlines on the chart are exactly parallel.

We see at left, CarMax has repeated its current (trading) channel before.

If KMX, posts a new daily high tomorrow, it’s a perfect ’13’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Oil & Gas … ‘OXY’

October 28, 2026 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, OXY, OXY-26-08, Up-Thrust, XOP Leave a comment

Down From The Highs

Continuing with the theme of Oil & Gas producers (XOP) at the extreme and potentially backing off, we have Occidental Petroleum OXY (not advice, not a recommendation).

OXY is posting the usual suspects of up-thrust (past resistance), then a return below and test.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

SOXX Nears (retrace) Target

October 27, 2026 By in Semiconductors, SOXX Leave a comment

At Resistance

The last update on the SOXX, had this:

“However, at this juncture, a retrace to 38%, (and gap-fill) seems more probable.”

The chart shows SOXX, just shy of the 38.2% level.

At the close today, we’re at established resistance.

A slight retrace down (gathering steam) is normal before penetrating resistance to the upside, if that happens (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Oil & Gas … Reversal?

October 27, 2026 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, Wyckoff, XOP, XOP-26-11 Leave a comment

What About ‘Higher’?

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘The tape is the master, and the tape, is a tyrant’.

We have to go with what it’s telling us.

Looking at XOP, it’s possible we’re in a wedge ‘throw-over’ reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Watching for a new daily low … otherwise we’re (potentially) back to higher levels.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279