Nothing To See Here …
The financial media says, ‘It’s just a technical (profit taking) sell-off’.
Nothing to see here. 🙂
However, the chart says it’s a potential terminating wedge and we’re right at the lower boundary (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Back In The Range
Real estate VNQ, is at The Danger Point®, posting simultaneous events.
The chart shows a wedge ‘throw-over’ as well as potential ‘up-thrust’ reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Real Estate VNQ, Daily
Price action attempted to break out of the wedge, and above resistance, at the same time.
We’re at the spot where the risk (cost) of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Where to, From Here?
The days of breathless news stories about flying silver bars to the London Metal Exchange, are long gone.
Seems like years ago, when it’s only been nine-months.
Of course, we’re still being barraged with forecasts of $500/oz. silver or ‘Can’t go below $50/oz.’; two opposing ends, both of which, are happening as we speak. 🙂
With that, let’s leave the drama behind and look at what the market’s actually saying about itself.
Silver SLV, Daily Close
There it is.
We’re exactly at a Fibonacci 61.8% projection from the all-time highs.
Price action’s been in a trading channel for months. Now, momentum appears to have slowed (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Probable (gap) Fill
Past performance is no guarantee, but it can tell us what’s probable.
In the case of AutoZone, the last time there was a significant gap lower open, 68-pts, was December 9th, 2025.
The update on January 9th of this year, posed the question, if the gap would be filled.
That gap was indeed filled and brings us to now.
That is, not 68-points, but an eye-watering 201-points.
AutoZone, AZO, Weekly
There are two ways to view the gap:
It’s a ‘breakaway’ gap, implying that AZO is not coming back. Or, it’s a ‘common’ gap, which is typically filled (not advice, not a recommendation).
We’ll throw into the mix, we have an upcoming Fed meeting late this month, link here.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Next Tuesday, Day 21
For those keeping up with reports from ‘Ox Talks’, latest one here, one gets the sense, ‘the pig is already in the python’, and events could start to happen fast (not advice, not a recommendation).
With that said, CRDO, posted its all-time high 19-days ago, on June 22nd.
That makes Fibonacci Day 21, this coming Tuesday.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Reversal on Daily
Today’s daily bar for KMX, is a reversal.
On the weekly, at left, we see a well-defined resistance area that so far, is containing any more upward movement (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Fibonacci Time Sequence
Home Depot posted its all-time highs years ago, back in 2024.
Since then, it’s been a series of trading ranges with nearly each one, resolving lower.
So, we have an overall downtrend.
The last update, here, presented a potential trading channel, and price action scenario needed to confirm:
“If HD, moves higher, then the set-up is (potentially) invalid. Lower, and we could be in the trading channel”
It turns out, price action did both; it opened higher, then finished outside-down, lower for the day.
The set-up was morphing into something else.
So, the trading action was to stand aside (not advice not a recommendation).
That ‘something else’, may have been today’s (potential) reversal.
Home Depot, HD, Daily
A Fibonacci sequence appears to be in-effect with pivot points, at Fibonacci intervals (so far).
It might not look like much, and if tomorrow’s high exceeds today, it won’t be. 🙂
However, the last up-thrust reversal (middle of the chart), initiated a decline covering around 60-points (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Is Tomorrow, The Day?
We have all kinds of Fed related kabuki on tap for tomorrow, link here.
From a Wyckoff standpoint, whatever the Fed says, the beige book or any other ancillary information, is of no-matter to what the market’s actually saying about itself.
In the case of Nvidia and by correlation, the SOXX, gap distance discussed yesterday, is being narrowed.
Nvidia, NVDA, Daily
With the caveat, in the markets, anything can happen, nonetheless we see if NVDA gets to the target level to close the gap, that level is also a 61.8%, Fibonacci retrace (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Targeting Resistance?
June 5th was a 4-pt. downward gap open, then lower close; down 13.56-pts, or -6.20%.
Price action may be targeting this area in an attempt to fill the gap (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Multiple (multi-year) Implosions
Since 1998, Ciena has corrected, imploded, or crashed by over 50%, seven times.
Declines like -51.03%, -51.49%, -66.18%, -79.82%, -89.95%, -91.20% and the big one; dot-com era near total wipeout at -98.40%.
So, here we are, market valuations by some measures that long-ago exceeded dot-com numbers (not advice, not a recommendation).
Ciena Corp., CIEN, Quarterly
Unlike Corning and ON Semi, Ciena has (so far) not recovered to dot-com levels.
Notice at the right side, we’ve had five straight quarterly advances with the subsequent open, at-or-near the previous close.
That is, until the current quarter.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The Danger Point® 