Monthly Archives: May 2021

Moderna, Reversal At Hand

May 31, 2021 By in MRNA, SPBIO, The Speck 2 Comments

Insiders are bailing out. The jig is up.

Insider transaction data at this link.

MRNA has not been around long from a trading standpoint.

Long enough though, for a quick 1,000% price increase so insiders can bail with huge profits; leaving the bag to the uninformed retail ‘investor’.

SeekingAlpha:

A quick search of the proletariat at SeekingAlpha turns up several ‘analysis’ articles on MRNA.

Specific links won’t be provided.

We’re not going to provide links and justify the brainwashed, everybody’s thinking the same thing mentality that seems to permeate the site’s ‘presenters’.

Incredibly, the last three articles on MRNA do not contain a single price chart. It’s hard to say where a company is headed without consulting the truth; that is, price action.

Search MRNA if you like but be prepared to hold your nose.

To be fair, the comment section on the latest Moderna post does have a few frustrated souls attempting to get the word out.

It’s a futile effort to argue … no one can tell the difference and the sane person looks to be insane.

Spending time either creating articles for SeekingAlpha or commenting on such, is a waste. It’s a distraction (like attempting to locate the source of the ‘speck’) from the real work at hand.

However, it does provide a fantastic insight into the current group-think.

Biotech Sector:

The last update on SPBIO, had it testing and reversing at the Fibonacci 23.6%, level.

The index could continue lower without delay. Or, as is typical market behavior, it will attempt to re-establish some kind of upward move.

Updates on the sector to be forthcoming based on price action.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

May 30, 2021 By in Biotech, Dr. Elder, LABD, Random Notes, SPBIO, The Speck, Useful Idiots, Usual Suspects, ZeroHedge

The usual suspects for the week.

No.1

During the 1918, Spanish Flu, only the speck injected died.

No. 2

Published numbers (if you can believe them) say 38%, of those in the U.S. have received speck injection.

It’s gets interesting when you crank the numbers for Russia.

Using population data from this source, only 3.7%, of them have received the same injection:

About 90%, less than U.S.

Guess who’s coming to dinner?

Meaning, guess who’s going to be in a better position from a military strength and health standpoint.

No. 3

Here’s a cheap, effective defensive tool. Looks bad but it works.

I had the former owner of Texas Tactical, tell me one time …

“Whatever the .45 hits, is coming off.”

Here’s a reminder of what the .45, can do: Time Stamp: 0:39.

Dead before you hit the ground.

No.4

“The best way to control the opposition is to lead it ourselves.” – Vladimir Lenin

No. 5

Legitimizing the lies

Just 17-seconds into this video and we have our answer whether this is news you can trust.

Useful idiots.

See No. 9, below for an update on what’s really going on.

No. 6

Working through comments on ZeroHedge, brings up this link, on mind control.

No. 7

Clouds on Mars. Really?

With atmosphere just 1% of Earth …. that’s one-percent; somehow we get clouds forming that have a strangely familiar ‘metallic sheen’ to them just like you see after a high level ‘spraying’ right here on Earth.

No. 8

“Virtue signaling little turds”

Time stamp 1:57, at this link lays it out.

The plus side; As we get closer to the fall (regular flu season) … just months away, everyone’s going to have a fantastic opportunity to find out what there’re really made of.

Bravery’s like a muscle. It needs to be exercised often.

Time to get the popcorn ready.

No. 9

‘Speck injection stakeholders are going to be disappointed with the success of the program’ (time stamp: 2:08).

Yes, indeed.

It’s possible the fundamental and technical conditions of the biotech sector are lining up.

As Dr. Elder said in his book years ago, when this type of alignment occurs, the resulting move can be extremely powerful.

We’ve just had a potential test and downside reversal of SPBIO at the 23.6%, level; an indication of severe weakness.

No. 10

Peer reviewed stupidity

This one’s a corollary to No. 8

In a way, it’s nice to see that mediocrity, stupidity and laziness may be set for a thorough house cleaning.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

CORN Rise Doubles

May 29, 2021 By in Corn, Dollar, UUP

Its never been the same since the ‘Derecho‘, August 2020

The corporate finance writers, i.e., ‘Les Bourgeois’, will jump on the inflation bandwagon and continue to say it’s because of the dollar.

Well, let’s see what happens next.

The dollar’s in position to mount a sustained, if not sharp (and completely unexpected) rally.

What a great opportunity for a ‘proof’. That’s engineering speak for a chance to show something (absolutely) to be true or false.

There’s of course, no guarantee the dollar rally will happen.

If it does, we’ll keep an eye on the corn market and see if it declines in relation to the dollar.

If the price rise is really the result of inflation, a dollar rally ‘should’ cause corn to decline.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Now, It Gets Interesting

May 28, 2021 By in Biotech, David Weis, LABD, SPBIO 5 Comments

1:39 p.m., EST

Retrace to 23.6%, rejected.

Shallow retrace indicates severe weakness.

Sustained downside potential.

The inverted chart of SPBIO above, shows price action has touched the 23.6%, level and is reversing.

The next chart has yet another Wyckoff spring set-up … equivalent to a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ on the regular, non-inverted chart.

Inverse fund LABD, is current trading at 22.77 – 22.83; far away from the session low at 21.77.

On a 4-Hour basis, the current bar has posted a new high.

The high for the morning session came at the open; 23.05

That high was exceeded when the next 4-hour bar posted at 23.10.

Why is that important?

It weights the probability to the upside for LABD.

That in turn weights probability we’ve seen the last of the downward corrective moves for LABD.

If so, we’re positioned for a major decline in biotech SPBIO.

If not, we’ve got an absolute hard-stop @ LABD 21.77 (not advice, not a recommendation)

At this point, it’s time to “Set the stop and walk away” as David Weis put it in his video.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: The Next Four Hours

May 28, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, SPBIO

8:58 a.m., EST

The past 48 hours have closed lower for inverse, LABD.

The next four hours may be the key

Using the four-hour chart allows us to break each trading session into two parts (morning, afternoon) as shown above.

Doing this gives us a cleaner picture of what’s happening from a thrust energy perspective.

Thrust energy is a relative number: (Net distance)*(Volume)

The obvious part in the chart, thrust energy is rapidly dissipating as price nears the support area (blue line).

This action could be a secondary test of the spring set-up that has been discussed over the last week or so.

Secondary tests do happen but not that often.

At this juncture in the pre-market, LABD is set to open slightly lower; possibly opening right at the support line.

If time permits, another update will be generated after the morning session (the first four-hours) is complete.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Lower, Lower … Weaker, Weaker

May 27, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, Positions, Project Stimulus, SPBIO

6:37 p.m., EST

Inverse biotech LABD, closes lower (again).

All is not what is seems.

Down-thrust energy diverging.

The daily close of LABD, shows price action has penetrated another (lower) support level.

Close below support on the weakest down-thrust energy (and lowest volume) since LABD, started its corrective move on May 14th.

Everyone has their own preferred time-frame. Ours is probably longer than most.

If there’s going to be a meltdown in biotech or some kind of serious correction lower, a likely bottom for a sustained move (as said before) will be where they usually are … the third week of October.

Price action is the final arbiter. However, it (SPBIO) has not (yet) indicated it’s on a new bull run to new highs.

At this point, the market’s frustrating both longs and shorts … and doing a good job of it as well.

Our short position via LABD, is being maintained … but the finger is edging closer to the sell button; not advice, not a recommendation.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dead Cat Bounce … or, Was It?

May 27, 2021 By in Dollar, UUP 2 Comments

8:31, a.m. EST

The Usual Suspects, Tell Us:

Higher dollar was just a ‘dead cat bounce’.

We’ve already laid the ground work for dollar reversal here and here.

A reasonable expectation, reversal or not, is for the market to come back and test the support level.

Currently, in the pre-market, UUP is trading at 24.21 – 24.22, basically unchanged.

Since the divergences are taking place on the weekly chart, if there’s a reversal, it’s likely to be a sustained move.

For today, watch for UUP, to come back and test.

After that, a move higher may indicate sustained reversal is underway.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Print & Close

May 26, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, Martha Stokes, SPBIO

6:47 p.m., EST

Looking at inverse biotech LABD: Close basis.

Just a minute or two after LABD penetrated yesterday’s low, a huge block trade when by on the tape.

The trading platform used shows Level II, streaming Time & Sales with transactions color coded.

The color key is as follows:

Green, Buy

Red, Sell

Purple, Sell below bid

Yellow, Buy above ask

Grey, Transaction was (buy or sell) between the bid/ask

The large block was coded Yellow: Size 18,184 shares @ 24.2699

That equates to one trade with a value at $441,323.86 … essentially a half-million dollars.

What’s the point?

If there are too many stops at one area, trade execution is automatic. This type of behavior was detailed in a prior report, linked here.

It’s not unreasonable to think today’s action was for the purpose of allocating one trade at a half-mil. Novice traders and neophytes were used as the bait (setting their stops at yesterday’s low).

Setting the stops at that location would essentially make the computer algorithms go automatic to hit the stops (as described in the Martha Stokes’ link above).

Whoever made the block trade was willing to pay above ask so the entire transaction would be filled at once.

Looking at the 30-minute chart of LABD below, we see a near perfect descending line right into the lows of the prior session.

The first chart in this post has the actual close below support where the original forecast called it as a test.

The push below support on a print basis had occurred prior but the actual close below support (to complete the set-up) came two days later.

Here we are: Testing the spring set-up on a closing basis while potentially taking out the weak hands positioned long LABD.

It’s likely we’ll know tomorrow. If LABD price action opens higher and makes a new daily high, it’s a high reliability signal we’re under way.

If not, something else is at work … yet to be determined.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech LABD, Verifies Trend

May 26, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, SPBIO

11:02 a.m., EST

Trend is down for SPBIO. Up for inverse, LABD

Daily chart of LABD, below:

As long as yesterday’s low (24.19) holds, LABD’s on track for a sustained move higher.

Currently, the right side trendline contacts are four in succession.

Price action’s still holding to the forecast in this report … but it’s really putting the right side trend to the test.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Amgen Reversal

May 25, 2021 By in AMGN, Biotech, IBB, SPBIO

12:59 p.m., EST:

Expectation for sustained AMGN, reversal.

Note: The Weekly Close chart of AMGN above, is ‘inverted’. Wyckoff analysis references are inverted as well:

Up-thrust, now becomes ‘spring’.

Sign of Supply now becomes ‘Sign of Demand’, etc.

The chart has been expanded with more detail below:

We’ve had the penetration (and close) below support. Then a reversal which indicated sign of demand.

Price action then came back to the support level for a ‘test’ and then reversed again.

Now, AMGN is at the point where the set-up is complete:

Penetrate, Close, Demand, Test, Reversal.

We’re in a high probability set-up for continued AMGN, downside.

At this point, AMGN is the No. 2, market cap equity in the IBB, biotech sector; a good proxy for biotech overall.

In a separate but similar market, SPBIO, today’s action continues to follow the forecast updated in yesterday’s report.

In that market, leveraged inverse fund LABD continues to push higher and is currently up +1.40%, for the day.

No major LABD breakout (breakdown for SPBIO), yet.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.