Bulls Lose Their Footing

11:51 a.m., EST

The bulls upside attempt in biotech has failed

The last update said if biotech SPBIO, made a new daily high, the bulls would be gaining a foothold.

That new high and the foothold, have come and gone.

Admittedly, the retrace in SPBIO and inverse LABD went farther than anticipated.

However, as of this morning’s action, the attempt to move higher in biotech has either failed outright, or has been severely damaged.

If it’s failure, then we’re set up for a major downside move.

The daily chart of inverse LABD, has the now familiar trend-lines that are a repeating pattern.

The last two days may have formed yet another right side trend; rising at the same angle as the others on the chart.

There’s a remote chance, as price action nears SPBIO support (LABD near 30), the bulls could once again attempt to reverse course.

With the overall market oscillating to the downside (today’s counter move notwithstanding) and with biotech in the downside lead, an upside move seems unlikely.

The Project Stimulus position remains unchanged.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The ‘Gut Check’

9:09 a.m., EST

If there’s going to be a big move, the market will make sure you’re not along for the ride.

The proverbial ‘gut check’, as David Weis used to call it.

It’s an adverse move that’s intended to shake any (all, if possible) weak hands out of their positions.

How will we know if that’s what’s going on with biotech’s, SPBIO?

Yesterday, was an upside reversal bar on the daily SPBIO, chart. Will the market go higher (LABD, lower) from here?

The first clue will be the open.

If SPBIO opens lower, with inverse LABD opening higher, we’re on the right track for more biotech downside.

If LABD makes a new daily high … above yesterday’s LABD, 30.42, high, we have confirmation of a shake-out.

Right now, we’re still in the pre-market.

However, LABD is already trading up between +3.5% – +4.7%, which weighs probability to more upside … downside for SPBIO.

If SPBIO somehow makes a new daily high (LABD, new low), the bulls are gaining a foothold.

At this point, the Project Stimulus account remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation):

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dollar Divergence

9:51 a.m., EST

Everyone loves to hate the dollar.

That sentiment extreme is a set-up … for the bulls.

If the UUP dollar index ETF, manages to push below the 24.00 – level, it presents the opportunity for a significant bullish divergence.

As Van Metre has stated many times over the past few months, the market’s not expecting, and not in position for a dollar rally.

How can it be … with the rabid gold bulls thrashing about with each upward blip in GLD, GDX and GDXJ.

From this site’s perspective, we’re staying away from that (gold) market and have focused on biotech … where things are really getting underway; but now, back to the dollar.

The weekly chart of UUP, shows the potential set-up.

If somehow we get a (narrow range) push below the 24-level, it would set up a clear bullish divergence on the MACD.

At this point, anything can happen.

Saying that gold will crash if the dollar launches upward is certainly possible. However, in today’s world, the opposite could happen as well.

Just one more reason to say away and focus on shorting an index that’s decisively moving lower: Biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).

Side Note:

The whole ‘divorce’ thing, you know what I’m talking about, could be a signal in disguise.

The ‘higher ups’ may have decided our cardigan wearing benefactor has reached the end of usefulness.

If so, how many biotech rats are now going to jump ship (before the paddy wagon arrives) knowing the jig is up?

Could that be why SPBIO, posted new lows in five time-frames; Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly and Yearly, last week?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Has Left The Station

11:01 a.m. EST

Early morning action confirms trend’s right side.

Massive downside potential for biotech SPBIO; upside for inverse, LABD.

Unless there’s some kind of unexpected reversal, LABD is showing its colors … huge upside potential.

As expected, LABD has completed its testing action previously discussed in these two updates; here and here.

At the minimum, we’ve got a right side LABD trend that if followed, will result in a doubling of current price near the end of this month or early next.

A trailing stop can be used which adheres to the (now confirmed) trend; not advice, not a recommendation.

If LABD really is in the channel shown, the top of the range even at this point, is around the 170-level; nearly 550%, from current price.

As always, anything can happen. For now, we’re sitting tight and letting price action dictate the next trading move.

The Project Stimulus account will need to get above the $2,000 level before margin is allowed (by the broker).

By that time, it may be a moot point; volatility could be too high for any kind of size increase.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

There has been so much research over the past week; there’s no time to format it into a concise report.

Here are the links with a brief summary.

Number 1.

South Africa Cash In Transit (CIT) failed heist blows up internet.

Link to short video, Here.

Longer version, Here.

The oligarchs will use the bravery of the driver and shotgun rider as an excuse for ‘cashless society’. Just wait.

Number 2.

Biotech index SPBIO down for the week in five time-frames:

Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly and Yearly price all posted new lows.

This index is heading down.

Number 3.

There’s no helicopter flying around on Mars.

With atmosphere just 1% of Earth …. give me a break.

From an engineer who worked 24-years in avionics and aircraft flight test and certification, anyone with two photons rubbing together could call out this farce.

Not sure the purpose for the lie … just that it’s a lie.

As a wild engineering guess:

To have such an ‘aircraft’ operate on Mars, the rotor blades would need to be a half-mile long, fifteen feet in width and be weightless themselves; spinning at 600 – 1000 PRM, to be able to lift a 4-lb payload.

Let’s see if anyone has the cajones to do the real math on this one.

Number 4.

Current parallels to The Great Depression can not be refuted.

Benign (25% unemployment) history book accounts are lies.

No surprise there.

One excellent source for what’s likely to happen next; Neil McCoy-Ward and his latest update.

Some comments from the linked livestream posted below:

This is a typical excuse (it’s not 1931) or complaint from those who do not have the neural plasticity to take yesterday’s data and adapt it to the current scenario.

These types of people are not likely to survive

Yes, the medical community (with few exceptions) has been bought.

Good luck facing the judgement. Here’s a link that might get the point home.

Yes indeed, time’s up.

If you’re not awake by now, you’ve had plenty of time … maybe even going back to 1963 or farther still; all wars are bankers wars.

Indeed, gold and silver won’t matter in what’s to come next.

Summary:

There is no guarantee that I and my firm are playing this chess game of collapse correctly.

However, being focused on Bitcoin or Dogecoin as Jerimiah Babe puts it, is buying into the (beast) system. It’s conditioning those involved to accept a digital currency.

At this point, we’re focused on shorting biotech until price action dictates otherwise. Not advice, not a recommendation.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

At The Crossroads

While the markets grab headlines of all time highs, biotech’s at the crossroads of collapse.

This site has zeroed in on the most likely candidate to head decisively lower once the bubble has burst.

In fact, if we look at the table of tracked markets below, biotech’s SPBIO, has taken over downside leadership.

Next to last is GDX; the senior mining index.

Repeated many times before, this sector is overcrowded with delusion on both sides. From a trading standpoint, no thank you.

Daily and monthly charts of biotech SPBIO are below. Both charts are inverted and have Fibonacci projections.

The charts are essentially clean so they don’t clutter the data.

Daily SPBIO (inverted):

Monthly SPBIO (inverted):

If SPBIO gets to the extreme Fibonacci projection of 261.8%, it will represent a sector decline of just over -92%.

Sounds about right; not advice, not a recommendation.

Recall, from the 1929 highs to the lows in 1932, was around -84% (depending on the source).

Under those extreme circumstances, -92% decline is not unreasonable.

Of course, if a collapse does happen, it’s not likely to go straight down. The entire ’29 crash did not go straight down either. There were many false rallies on the trip to the bottom.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Depression Diaries

12:26 p.m., EST

The Great Depression is about to be eclipsed by ‘The Greater Depression’.

The Great Depression Diaries, is an excellent glimpse into the realities and timeline of a financial collapse.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

After watching and listening to all segments, if you changed the dates, you’d think it’s talking about the here and now.

Three key takeaways are:

  1. Intentional destruction of the food supply
  2. Real unemployment numbers falsified
  3. People starved to death

We can look at today’s payroll data as a pivot point. For whatever reason (out of work, being paid not to work), the economy’s not coming back.

The belief the economy’s going to be stronger once the benefits run out (as stated in the linked article) is false.

The current economy is being intentionally destroyed.

That’s not too hard to determine.

Here’s just one more bit of data (unverified, but still of note) to support that assessment.

If you’re unemployed, starving to death, you’ll be a ready face-diaper wearing compliant subject; easily coerced into being injected (executed).

Obviously, the goal is to be as independent, self-employed as possible so we’re not that person.

Which brings us to the culprit du jour: Biotech.

Yesterday, the expectation was for a reversal and test (that day) before SPBIO continued its downward trajectory (LABD higher).

It looks like the test is lasting two days (maybe more) instead of one.

Inverse fund, LABD is currently trading near 24.15. That’s right in the vicinity of the expected range between 23.90 – 24.30, stated yesterday.

LABD did push a little bit lower in the early session to 23.68, but still within expected range.

LABD is testing the right side channel line and trying its best to break through. Thus far, the low for the day remains at 23.68.

If there’s an upward (LABD) reversal from here, a Fibonacci Day 8, from the original Day 55 low, it would give more confirmation we’re at least following the trendline; potentially at the very right side of a huge trading range.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Channel

10:19 a.m. EST

Biotech’s on track for a sustained decline

Inverse fund LABD, major upside potential

It’s possible, after ‘Day 55’, LABD (above) attempted to negate the uptrend (pushing out of the right side) … only to find itself a few days later back in the channel.

Looking at the big picture, could or will LABD reach the upper channel line?

Is that possible?

After the experience with oil futures going negative (last year) the first time in market history, it should be obvious, anything can happen.

If LABD’s in the trading channel shown, we’re still in the early stages of the move.

Today, the expectation is for price action to reverse; coming back to close (or test) near the trend line around 23.90 – 24.30.

If it does and then gaps higher tomorrow (Friday), thus confirming the trend, it’s potentially the last stop for low risk positioning (not advice, not a recommendation).

Otherwise, with LABD up 7%, as of this post, we could already be off to the races.

The ‘project’ account is unchanged:

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Inflation Reaches Peak Narrative

11:32 a.m., EST:

Just like ‘peak oil’ back in the summer of 2008, now it looks like we’ve reached ‘peak narrative’ for inflation.

‘Narrative’, because the markets are a game of manipulation.

If you don’t know who’s being manipulated, then that person is you (slightly changing a Buffett quote).

Bolstering the assessment, is this report from ZeroHedge.

Looks like everybody’s on board and reporting higher prices. Just like they were on board last year with: “We’re all in this together”.

The exact same tag-line for every major U.S. corporation … with ready made (like they knew ahead of time) banners to boot.

The problem is, the markets are not following along.

Reported two days ago, senior gold miners are testing their reversal.

Yesterday, was an upward push that wound up being an ‘out-side-down’ bar (GLD, GDXJ, SLV) … a reversal in itself.

That’s not in the script. Or, is it?

At this point, the public’s literally redirected, manipulated, at will. It’s a sick game being played by all who control the media.

From a personal standpoint, I’d rather make some popcorn, take my red wagon full of fiat, go camp down around $800/oz., and wait.

The gold ice cream man may never show up. If he does, great.

If not, there’re other opportunities; at least I’ll not be one of the manipulated masses screaming inflation hyperbole if/as/when gold ratchets all the way down.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Access Denied

11:12 a.m., EST:

Word’s out on the street.

In what may be just the tip, two links below are businesses denying access to those who have been injected.

Florida private school prohibits teacher access.

Physician’s message about denied access to services.

Here’s the catalyst discussion related to the above links.

Here’s a link to the PDF.

Note: The last two links do not verify the veracity of the referenced material. Be advised.

Momentum is building for some kind of ‘tipping point’.

We may be there now.

We’re looking for an avalanche of reports whose combined (fundamental and technical) effect is catastrophic implosion of the biotech sector.

Market Analysis:

The chart speaks for itself. It’s obvious biotech has reversed and could be in serious trouble.

The inverse fund LABD is up a stiff 10.5%, as of this post:

We may or may not have a trading channel as shown.

The right side trendline will need more confirmation. As always, anything can happen and the nascent move could fall apart.

However, what is known:

SPBIO’s (and LABD’s) pivot was called ‘to the day’.

The “Iceberg” notation references this report, where the probability of SPBIO downside at that juncture was presented.

That analysis was correct. SPBIO never looked back.

Positioning:

Our ‘project’ position remains open (not advice, not a recommendation). The correct stance under current circumstances is to let price action take LABD higher.

As Livermore said nearly a century ago, the hard part now is to ‘sit tight’. Let the market determine when the move has ended.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.