Author Archives: thedangerpoint

The S&P Top … and Drop

May 16, 2026 By in S&P, S&P 500, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX, SPY, Tom Hougaard Leave a comment

Interesting Numbers

Trading professional Tom Hougaard has already told us, if Friday’s market action trades below the prior day, Thursday, then Monday tends to be lower as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s a lot going on in the S&P chart below.

S&P 500 SPY, Daily

The current move bottom-to-top, was 33 Days

If the SPY retraces from Friday’s close to the ‘Measured Move’ target, it’s a drop of approximately –3% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s throw in some SOXX, stats as well.

SOXX all-time high (5/11), was 533.74. The ‘test’ high (5/14), was 533.13, closing at 530.03, a daily gain of +0.33%.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Off The Cliff?

May 15, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX, SPY Leave a comment

Won’t Know, ’till Monday

First, there was ‘shortening of the thrust’, link here.

Then, it was ‘SOXX goes parabolic’, link here.

After that, it was ‘change of character’, link here.

On the heels of that, ‘no new highs’, link here.

Finally, today, we have a gap-down open, new daily low and closing low.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

It’s important to note, the S&P (SPY) also posted a gap down, close down for the day.

A gap down from all-time highs.

Of course, it could all be much ado about nothing (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Regional Banks … Breakdown

May 14, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Banking, KRE, KRE-26-01, Ox Talks, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff Leave a comment

End of The Test?

All eyes seem to be on reports like this, as if it’s a good thing while the nerdy kid in the back, is frantically waving, trying to get everyone’s attention.

All you need to know, link above, is in the first 55-seconds.

‘There’s never been a run like this’

It’s ok, this rally has legs because we’re believing the misconception, earnings move prices … so, all is well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, Back at The Bank

‘Ox Talks‘ has been relentlessly covering the truth; that truth is, the A.I. (and credit) narrative is imploding in real time (not advice, not a recommendation).

Which brings us to the banks.

The chart of Regional Banking ETF, KRE, shows what might be happening.

S&P Regional Banking ETF, KRE, Weekly

The Interpretation:

Wyckoff up-thrust in February, followed by ‘sign of supply’ in March, then up for a test.

We’re on a weekly timeframe; whatever happens has the potential for some duration.

With the breakdown, the test appears to be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Close, But No Cigar

May 13, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX 1 Comment

Just Short of All-Time Highs

Another data-point.

The 15-minute chart shows SOXX attempted to recover from yesterday’s whack; trying to post a new all-time high.

It didn’t happen.

When looking at the 4-Hour chart (not shown), today’s thrust energy (Force Index) is nearly missing altogether (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Change of Character

May 12, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Like a Chameleon

Several days ago, a Wyckoff characteristic was identified, ‘shortening of the thrust’, indicating the potential end of a move, link here.

Now, we have a ‘change of character’, another reversal potential.

As a reminder, we’re dealing with probabilities; each nuance adding to the next. This is not a forecast.

Semiconductors SOXX, 4-Hour

The chart shows a series of upward thrusts, identified by Elder’s Force Index (blue arrows), with a corresponding market move, the black arrows.

Question:

Before rushing to the answer below, what’s different about the last blue/black arrow pair on the far-right side?

Answer:

On every single arrow pair except the far right, price action ends higher than the previous 4-Hour bar.

Check with your own chart package to see if this isn’t true.

On the last arrow pair, the close of the 4-Hour bar is below the previous 4-Hour high.

The SOXX has changed character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Goes ‘Parabolic’

May 11, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX 1 Comment

We’ve Seen This Movie Before …

Two days ago, was this comment:

“This move has gone parabolic, very much like the silver top and collapse from my perspective.”

Now, today, we have this, link here.

With that, let’s move on to the chart.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

Closing price action has gone (almost) as far as it can and still maintain ‘shortened thrust’ structure (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Affirm Reversal

May 10, 2026 By in AFRM, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Fibonacci Retrace

The up-thrust reversal shown at left (black arrow), is at both a Fibonacci 50% retrace as well as 38.2%, on a longer time frame.

‘Normal’ market behavior is to come back for a test (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that happnes, we’ll cover more detail at the next session.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, Net (up) Slows

May 9, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff 5 Comments

Wyckoff Concept

A Wyckoff tenet concerning directional moves, is ‘shortening of the thrust’.

As a move nears its end, net upward progress between thrusts, shortens.

On a closing basis, we see the SOXX launching ever higher but net progress after pullbacks, is getting shorter (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike, Goes Vertical

May 8, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, CRWD, CRWD-26-01, Ox Talks Leave a comment

While The Narrative Unravels

Yesterday’s update on CrowdStrike, said that Fridays were typically biased to the upside.

Well, that’s what happened and a bit more than expected.

A.I. Narrative Blow-Out

Before getting to the chart, a reminder the A.I. narrative’s unraveling in real-time, big time, links here, and here (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart shows going vertical into the close of the day.

Note the resistance zone.

CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily

As shown, volume and Force Index contract as price action rises into the resistance area.

We’re now on to the weekend.

One has to wonder, what A.I. implosion will happen next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CRWD, Penetrates Resistance

May 7, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, CRWD 1 Comment

Now, In Position

The last update on CRWD, was here.

Comments to posts in general, may provide more clarity.

From back March, we had this:

“Now, with all of that said, for me to enter short, I’m looking for something very specific. I’m looking for a certain kind of price action behavior at, or above the resistance area noted.

An up-thrust (in this case) or a spring has a unique kind of movement when watching in real time. Sort of a ‘last gasp’ type of action.

So far, I’ve not seen that in CRWD.”

Fast-forward to now.

Price action penetrated resistance on news, link here.

The important part, is what comes next.

As of today, we’re at 53-Days from the February 23rd lows; well within margin at this time scale for a ‘Day 55’ top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fridays are typically biased to the upside. Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279