Nothing gets sharks in the water faster, than a failed move.
Last Friday, real estate IYR closed below support (black line). Doing so, put itself in Wyckoff spring position.
‘Spring position’ is a technical condition of instability where price can reverse dramatically.
At the open yesterday, that’s exactly what happened. IYR launched nearly instantly to a 50% retrace.
From there it was a long day of moderate price erosion all the way to the last hour; then it all went south.
IYR closed just 0.22 points higher or +0.25%, after being as high as +1.73 points (+1.98%), early in the session. In addition, that close was back below support on the heaviest volume since February 2nd. … another bearish sign.
We can see momentum, MACD has exhausted itself and posted numerous bearish divergences.
On the fundamental side, just in the past 24-hours, there’s been a raft of news articles posted showing commercial real estate’s in serious trouble.
IYR has reversed with a decisive ‘outside-down’ week.
This sector has likely seen its highs for the year and probably its all-time (recovery) highs.
The latest news from Steven Van Metre does not paint a good picture for the economy or the markets (bonds excepted).
Jerimiah Babe (J.B.) has also posted an update on Los Angeles. It’s a human and economic tragedy. Unfortunately, this is where the Cadillac has gone off the cliff.
We’ve continually held to the stance, there’s no recovery.
The “recovery”, is a mainstream narrative intended to keep the herd focused in the wrong direction and on the wrong things.
Judging by the hysteria with small cap short squeezes, physical silver and bitcoin (kind of hard to access when the power goes out), the promulgator to the proletariat, the mainstream media, has done an excellent job.
Inverse leveraged funds work best during a sustained, directional move. It remains to be seen if DRV was a good selection; not only for a trade vehicle, but for the anticipated collapse in real estate.