Author Archives: thedangerpoint

AMD … Countdown to Collapse?

August 5, 2026 By in AMD, Artificial Intelligence, JBL, JBL-26-07, Semiconductors Leave a comment

It’s The ‘Fundamentals’ … Not

AMD is not the only ticker with a perfect, or near-perfect Fibonacci count; Jabil (JBL) has one as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

For JBL, from the all-time highs to today’s nascent reversal, is a Fibonacci 34 Days.

Seen in the AMD chart, its Fibonacci counts thus far, indicate probability for inflection points.

As is typical with this type of analysis, as soon as it’s obvious, it morphs into something else.

The question for AMD: Will it post straight down from here, a test, then down, a recovery higher, or something else?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mass Screaming Hysteria

August 4, 2026 By in Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge Leave a comment

FOMO

According to the finical press, it was mass screaming hysteria as stocks ‘short squeezed’ to all-time highs, link here.

However, one sector noticeably absent from the crazed party, were the semiconductors.

In fact, during the past month or so, the SOXX has gone from market leader to laggard (not advice, not a recommendation).

As we’ll see below, there’s also an interesting pattern; an a-b-c correction to a minor up-thrust.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note the inflection points at Days 1 and 3, with today, a potential inflection, at Day 5.

This price action is typical of a move to higher levels, potentially the top of the range and farther.

However, if the SOXX stalls at this point and reverses, it indicates severe weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CTAS … ‘Island Gap Reversal’

August 3, 2026 By in CTAS Leave a comment

Rare Occurrence

Island gap reversals are rare.

When one happens, it’s best to take note and determine the opportunities.

In the case of CTAS, it’s posting a bearish reversal.

Today, may have been a test or that may be yet to come (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow is Day 5, from last Wednesday’s high.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

ON Semi … After-Hours

August 2, 2026 By in ON, Semiconductors, SOXX Leave a comment

Higher or Lower?

ON Semiconductor, is scheduled to report after-hours on Monday, link here.

If the overall sector (SOXX) is still continuing an upside squeeze, then ON could break higher on the earnings (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Microsoft Hits The Wall

August 1, 2026 By in MSFT, Software, Spring-to-Up-Thrust Leave a comment

The Resistance Wall

It’s either good or bad, depending on one’s perspective.

Since, at this juncture, we’re looking primarily for short-side opportunities, it’s a good thing.

Upside risk is being reduced (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart below, shows a familiar pattern emerging.

Microsoft MSFT, Daily

Price action from the recent lows is loosely following a Fibonacci sequence.

If that correlation holds, the next count is Day 34, August 12th, a Wednesday, release of CPI as the main event (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

PAYX … Reversal & Test

July 31, 2026 By in ADP, PAYX, PAYX-26-01 Leave a comment

Same As ADP

Both PAYX and ADP (yesterday), spiked above resistance on the same day, then reversed.

They’re moving in unison; today was a ‘test’ for both.

Tests can last one day or many. They can pass or fail. Anything can happen.

From a technical perspective, PAYX, is the weaker of the two, having retraced to the 50% level, not higher to 61.8%, as ADP (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

ADP: Target, Fill, Reverse

July 30, 2026 By in ADP, ADP-26-01 1 Comment

Checking All Three

Yesterday, ADP spiked higher on earnings, to fill a gap from October 29th, 2025.

It settled a little lower, closing the day at exactly the 61.8% retrace shown.

Today was at a gap open lower, then lower close to effectively post a reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Another Channel … Cadence

July 29, 2026 By in CDNS, Software, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Long Term Top?

At this juncture, CDNS, is posting within a downward trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Near the end of the session, price action penetrated the prior session low.

So, we should all know what that means. 🙂

If CDNS is going to stay within the channel (a big ‘if’), tomorrow might see an upward attempt in a Wyckoff ‘spring’, before ultimately returning back to the lows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Jabil … Volume at Support

July 28, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, JBL, JBL-26-06, Semiconductors, SOXX Leave a comment

Similar to the SOXX?

We just saw what happened to the SOXX when volume increased at support, link here.

From that update:

“Instead of volume contracting on the test (sellers backing away), it has increased (blue arrow).”

Next session, SOXX broke lower and kept on going.

Now, Jabil closed near support; volume increased 43.2% over the prior session.

It’s also possible, price action is posting a trading channel Fibonacci 13-Days wide (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Ciena … Trading Channel

July 27, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, CIEN, CIEN-26-02 Leave a comment

Brief & Perfunctory

Ciena may be in a trading channel.

Note how the centerline is ‘straddling’ price action.

For this channel to remain in-effect, CIEN needs to trade lower (immediately) at the next session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279