Real Estate, IYR Forecast

Recent price action now provides a tight range for downside targets.

Recall, that P&F charts show potential, not guarantees.

There’s enough congestion in IYR to build significant downside objectives. If we’re at a sustained reversal, then as IYR passes through the 78 – 82 area, it builds even more downside potential.

This is why there’s been so much focus on IYR.

Thinking of it in Elliott Wave terms, if we’re about to begin a Wave 3 (down), it can’t be shorter than Wave 1

That wave (100.75 to 56.27) collapsed a whopping – 44% .

As always, anything can happen. IYR is trading down but right at support. It could get a new lease on life … but probabilities say no.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

All Markets Down

Pre-market action has all major indexes trading lower; SPY, DIA, QQQ, SOXX and IWM; all down.

Real estate, IYR has no real pre-market volume (20-shares) so its open is unknown. However, inverse fund DRV, does have volume (3,700 shares) and its action is up about 4%.

The daily close chart of IYR (above), has price action contacting an established axis line.

That was yesterday. Over the past two-weeks, as price ratcheted higher volume has declined (circled area enlarged).

That decline indicates lack of commitment at these levels.

Yesterday’s close also put IYR firmly in up-thrust position (ready for reversal).

Over the past week, short positions were opened using DRV (not advice, not a recommendation)

Average price of the short equates to DRV @ 9.92; not far from current pre-market trading.

If IYR posts a new daily low (below 86.62), it’s another data point the anticipated reversal may be at hand.

The rising action has changed the P&F forecast reported a few days back. Updates will be forthcoming.

If this is the start of a sustained reversal, the plan is to build the short position as price action dictates.

The downside of the entire market (S&P, Dow, etc.) is immense. Commercial real estate is especially vulnerable. Price action itself tells us that.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Flat-Line: Real Estate

It’s taken over six months for real estate’s IYR gain a net positive 1.9%.

The S&P eclipsed that many times over during the same time frame; gaining nearly 19%.

By this time, everyone knows about margin debt at never before extremes and the latest hedge fund blow-up.

As with earthquakes, cracks in the system appear to start small and then build to a massive disconnect.

Behind all the shiny object headlines, commercial real estate looks terminal. While the rest of the market powered to new recovery highs, IYR went flat-line.

Today’s close may be important.

We’ll see if somehow IYR is going to break out of the six-month sideways action, continuing higher or if this is it; no more upside.

Currently, the firm is short the sector with a negative return. Possibly a debatable position. However, if IYR is going to stall and reverse, this is a high probability location.

It’s not much different than Van Metre’s approach to the bond market. We know how the game is played. The market remains at manic levels … just waiting for the catalyst.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Pre-Market: XOP Down

If Oil & Gas XOP is trading down, inverse DUG will open higher.

Already in the green on DUG (not advice, not a recommendation), a new daily high would allow the stop to be moved; assuring at least 5%, gain on the position.

The magenta arrows have possible action and resulting stop movement.

If DUG posts a new daily high above 23.86, and closes higher for the day, the stop will be moved as shown (22.71).

From that point, stop movement will be discretionary as/if DUG moves higher.

We’re looking for either signs of a new more aggressive uptrend, or confirmation of the “2,200%” trend on the chart.

Expect resistance to show up in the 28.00 area.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

What, When, & Where

This update will not contain any financial market analysis.

As the food supply noose tightens, this report shows one man’s approach to the disruptions as described by Christian at Ice Age Farmer.

MP3 file inserted below.

The photo at left was taken today in the early morning at a private garden; located in North Central Texas.

It’s been a mild day thus far at 57-degress, with a slight rain overnight.

The remining droplets of water can be seen on the cauliflower if one looks closely enough.

The brassica looks beautiful but it does not tell the whole story.

It took nearly three years to get the result shown.

Planting this type of cauliflower in Texas during the usual spring season, would later subject the burgeoning plants to a vicious attack from stinkbugs; a well established predator.

The bugs decimated the leaves and then multiplied exponentially to invade other plants in the garden as well as nearby peach trees.

After the bug attack, whatever skeletal remains of cauliflower were left, got incinerated during the Texas summer.

From the get-go, the cauliflower never had a chance.

For sure, this bug smorgasbord did attract natural predators like toads.

But after they gorged themselves on the well available supply, they were content to sit out the summer underneath some other garden plant that had been less susceptible to attack.

The corporate controlled food supply is being destroyed intentionally.

Faulty thinking like “No problem. I’ll just grown my own”, could result in starvation while still in the learning curve.

(to be continued)

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Fuel & Trucking Disruption

That’s what can be expected from the Moving Forward Act.

Before we get started with any chart analysis, it’s important to note in the link above, submittal date for the bill was June 11, 2020; a full six months before ‘inauguration’.

Like the CARES Act (Speck relief bill) was submitted nine months before there was an outbreak in the far east, (the ‘relief’ bill was in the works for years), the Moving Forward Act was already making its way through committee long before the change in administration.

Just a short digression on CARES. Accessing the link above, one finds the original submittal date (January 2019, nine months before the outbreak) is nowhere to be found. History being scrubbed and re-written in real time.

Systematic destruction of the nation’s infrastructure is the plan; but the real target remains the food supply.

How does this knowledge help with Oil & Gas Sector analysis?

Supply disruptions could cause fuel prices (USO as proxy) to go higher while at the same time, drillers and producers go lower (XOP as proxy).

XOP chart analysis identified a potential set-up in this report.

That has proved correct thus far. Knowledge of the overall plan (supply disruption/destruction) lets us know the sector most likely is not coming back … not anytime soon.

Shorting XOP via DUG (not advice, not a recommendation) by repeatedly entering and exiting as required, could be a go-forward plan for months or years to come.

Looking at inverse fund DUG, the entry is shown. Price action retreated (testing) for two trading days before continuing on with its reversal.

It’s early in the move but there’s a potential trend line.

For inverse funds, trends in the hundreds or thousands of percent (annualized) are not unusual.

If the trend is maintained, a 100% gain on the position would occur right about the middle of April.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Plan

The image below may be the best descriptor of the (economic) plan going forward. Full (forced) compliance won’t be achieved until every vestige of small-business (Mom & Pop) is destroyed.

On the bright side, at least we know what’s coming.

The near instant, within hours fracking about face, could be used as the economic model; destroy everything and do it quickly.

Self employment (S-Corp of one) may or may not be the ultimate answer. One thing it might do, is offer more time for maneuvering. That’s critical when ‘speck’ injectors show up at large firms and force everyone into line.

With that in mind, two sectors have been the focus as opportunities for short positions.

Oil & Gas, XOP and real estate, IYR.

There are others like gold with GDX down again in the pre-market … thus confirming a bearish trend.

It could wind up that shorting GDX was the best option.

However, since there’s such rabid indoctrination into the hyper-inflation theme, it could be a bumpy road to the bottom … the exact worst thing for an inverse ETF.

Those trading vehicles prefer straight down action. Otherwise, they erode (value) quickly.

Analysis of the Oil & Gas sector was covered just recently, right along with identifying a reversal. XOP is down again in the pre-market with DUG up.

The short position in DUG is being maintained (not advice, not a recommendation) with chart analysis to come over the weekend.

Real estate, IYR shows a lower open as well.

Going short this one (via DRV) has been more time consuming. As IYR heads lower after an apparent false breakout (Wyckoff up-thrust), increasing the line (position size) is the objective; not advice, not a recommendation.

Depending on today’s price action, chart analysis on IYR and DRV will be forthcoming.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

GDX Reversing, As We Speak

If GDX price action continues lower, it may have completed its test forecasted three-days ago.

The gold market is a very crowded trade. At this point, one to be avoided (not advice, not a recommendation).

If GDX posts a new daily low (below 35.40), it would give extra weight, the test is complete.

At the minimum, price action has recognized the bear flag by coming back up to test and then pulling away.

That alone, should give the gold bulls some pause.

In other markets, real estate IYR, did exactly as forecast. It opened below yesterday’s close and retreated from there.

The upward test, also discussed in this morning’s update may have already happened; there’s a 38% retrace present on 30-minute or shorter time-frames.

Correspondingly, the DRV position has been increased (not advice, not a recommendation). At this point we have an absolute hard stop: Yesterday’s DRV low, @ 9.67.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Fake Breakout

It’s possible yesterday’s real estate breakout was false.

This update includes three charts; two are on the weekly time-frame and one, is a 30-minute chart.

Yesterday, IYR barely nudged the resistance zone and attempted to hold. Late in the session, price action eroded a bit into the close.

We’re in a terminating wedge.

This type of action is counter-trend. Price bars overlap and are struggling against the main trend which remains down.

The 30-minute chart (above) has more detail.

Barely able to hold the highs, price action is at the boundary. Like yesterday’s update on XOP, we have IYR in a similar position:

At the edge of the lake.

Pre-market action is highly unusual (because of the wide spreads) in the IYR inverse funds SRS and DRV. However, that’s what we have now.

Pre-market in DRV points to a higher open (lower for IYR).

Anecdotal evidence from Jerimia Babe, shows us nobody’s home; a wide swath of vacant rea estate. It’s reasonable to say, this situation is repeated in various degrees nationwide.

We’re still short the sector (via DRV); admittedly it could have been better. Not advice, not a recommendation.

From a strategic standpoint (for the firm), it’s an initial position and so not too concerned about the draw-down.

At this point, two outcomes are possible with one more probable.

First, IYR price action may continue on higher (less probable) and if so, we’ll have to exit DRV.

Second, and based on pre-market action, IYR will open below yesterday’s highs, then a potential upward test, followed by downward action.

That may all happen today or over a number of days.

Lastly, based on news and internet scuttlebutt, no time will be wasted on destroying what’s left of the economy and remaining vestiges of the middle class.

The final nail could include a swift, unrelenting market collapse that includes seizure of IRA accounts (at minimum). A topic researched long ago with more detail in the link above.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Edge of The Lake

The late David Weis, instructed his students during a 2007, trader’s camp sponsored by Dr. Elder, that ‘trades are found at the edge of the lake’.

Most of the training session was recorded and reproduced on DVD. That video is still available, linked here and is a wealth of knowledge.

Within the video, Weis analyzes what he calls ‘The Apache Spring’.

No, it’s not a history lesson of Chato’s raids in New Mexico Territory during the spring of 1882; it’s an analysis of Apache Oil, ticker APA.

That analysis alone, should be enough to convince any rational person, price action has absolutely nothing to do with any fundamentals.

Wyckoff repeated this assessment in his autobiography; ‘prices have an energy of their own.’

Prices are manipulated. They always have been; but it’s not important to know who’s doing the manipulating.

What’s important, is to discern (within probability) the objective of the manipulation.

Which brings us to Oil & Gas, XOP.

We’re at the edge of the lake.

Up-volume is declining and momentum (MACD) has bearishly diverged. If there’s to be a sustained reversal, this location is high probability.

Price action in XOP, is attempting to close the reversal gap. This morning’s pre-market shows it might do that in today’s session.

We’re already short the sector via DUG (not advice, not a recommendation) and watching carefully for gap closure with subsequent continuation of the nascent reversal.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.