Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Airbnb and Bonds (divergence)

August 26, 2026 By in ABNB, ABNB-26-05, Bonds, Elliott Wave, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Ox Talks, Real Estate, YouTube Black Swan Leave a comment

A Lot, All at Once

Potential shock ahead.

That’s one way to describe what could happen via ‘Looking for Black Swans’, with the chart provided by Elliott Wave International.

Ruh, Roh

Adding some more chaos to the situation, is this.

What’s going to happen when ‘fiddling’ doesn’t work; when everyone figures out the emperor has no clothes?

Airbnb ABNB, Daily

ABNB surged on earnings with a gap higher, wide price bar, and heavy volume.

It then posted several weeks of congestion which at this juncture, looks like a terminating wedge.

Short position located as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana at Target

August 25, 2026 By in CVNA, Federal Reserve, KMX, Transportation Leave a comment

While CarMax Grinds Higher

Three trading days ago, was this (emphasis added):

‘The higher [CVNA] open was not expected which now, ever so slightly, points bias to the upside.

Three days later, Carvana is now 8.38% higher at the Fibonacci 61.8% projection.

Since we started this series focusing on Fibonacci counts, we’ll continue.

This coming Thursday with Jobless Claims, is a Fibonacci 8-Days from the recent low on the 18th.

It’s also Fibonacci 21-Days from the deeper low on July 30th (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Spotlight

August 24, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, LABD, LABD-26-10, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, The Speck, XBI, ZeroHedge Leave a comment

Potential Set-Up

Over the weekend, Greg Hunter released his latest interview with Ed Dowd, link here.

ZeroHedge subsequently picked up that feed, link here.

As is typical with ZeroHedge, the comments are a veritable gold-mine. In the like above, they don’t disappoint.

With XBI, we have our repeating pattern, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Early, Late … Not at All

August 23, 2026 By in Life Insurance, MET, MET-26-05 Leave a comment

Life Insurance Index

The expectation for Monday, is some version of a lower open and lower close.

If that does not happen, then we’re not in the wedge, trend, breakdown as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Chubb Hangs On … How Long?

August 22, 2026 By in CB, Insurance, Life Insurance, Moby Dick, Ox Talks, Property Insurance Leave a comment

At The Edge

Events are unfolding rapidly.

The insurance sector, specifically life insurance (so far), is the whale under the surface (not advice, not a recommendation).

While Chubb Corp’s not life insurance, it’s the close cousin, property insurance.

Unlike the banks as pointed out at this link, if there’s trouble, there’s unlikely to be a bailout.

Chubb Corp. CB, Daily Close

We may find out on Monday, if CB is, or is not, following the down trendline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Upside Breakout

August 21, 2026 By in CVNA, CVNA-26-04, KMX, Transportation, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Carvana As Well?

If CarMax continues higher from here, it has a measured move target as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

That implies Carvana may come along as well.

With that said, even though CVNA closed lower for the day, the session opened higher than yesterday’s close.

‘The higher open was not expected which now, ever so slightly, points bias to the upside.

CVNA was ‘short-traded’ throughout the day and CVNA-26-04, was closed-out with a slight profit.

Caveat Emptor

The breakout in KMX is not all that convincing.

If it falls back into the range, it’s likely an up-thrust (reversal).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Step-by-Step

August 20, 2026 By in CVNA, CVNA-26-04, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Transportation, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The (short) Path

With today’s new daily high, Carvana’s following a Fibonacci sequence, thus far.

Referencing the chart below, we have:

Day 1: Wyckoff up-thrust, penetrating resistance (blue line).

Day 3: Lows, increased volume; ‘sign-of-supply’.

Day 5: Recovery high, testing the underside.

It’s at this point, anything can happen.

For most of today’s session, CVNA remained below the highs, giving doubt to the prior analysis.

It wasn’t until the last ten-minutes of trade, did price action move above yesterday’s high of 71.18.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

As CVNA pushed above that high, a short was opened: CVNA-26-04, with the stop just above today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

If Carvana manages to push higher, the scenario discussed yesterday, the next resistance level may be more probable.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Tomorrow?

August 19, 2026 By in CVNA, Interest Rates, Ox Talks, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Fibonacci, Day 5

Tomorrow is Fibonacci Day 5 for Carvana from the most recent up-thrust high.

The low (yesterday), was Fibonacci Day 3.

With that, we have two schools of thought.

Lower interest rates may (help) boost CVNA to the upper resistance boundary (dashed blue line), penetrating, creating a larger up-thrust condition.

Or tomorrow, is the test of the breakdown (then lower).

If that’s the case, it does not matter how low rates go, the economy is in a swan dive (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Progressive Hits Trendline

August 18, 2026 By in Insurance, PGR, PGR-26-02 Leave a comment

Down-Trendline

We’re either still in the trading channel (at left) or we’re not.

Tomorrow’s action may continue lower, verifying the trend, or break to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

For positioning short, it’s relatively straightforward.

Short trade PGR-26-02, entered at 207.22, with a stop above yesterday’s session high at 209.72, yielding a ‘risk’ of 2.50-pts.

Let’s see what happens next.

Update: 8:30 a.m., EST: PGR-26-02 exited in pre-market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Progressive Breaks Lower

August 17, 2026 By in Insurance, PGR, PGR-26-01 Leave a comment

Behind The Scenes

Progressive’s price action had been coiling, preparing for the downside, long before any downgrade news, link here.

Now, it looks like it’s in a trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279