No Bailout: Real Estate

Commercial real estate has not joined the bailout party; it may be strictly political as described here.

iStock-1048065504If that’s the case, with political backlash a possibility, commercial real estate may be left to implode.

Highlighted four days ago here and here, was the probability of a counter trend move for real estate ETF, IYR.

That move appears to be over.  As of this post, IYR has just penetrated the prior day’s low (of 72.29), adding weight we may be in the next leg down.

Using standard tools such as Fibonacci, a projected move points all the way to ~35.50, for IYR.  At current levels, that represents a decline of 51%.

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