Banking System’s ‘Old Maid’

October 1, 2025 By in Banking, Daniela Cambone, DIA, DIA-25-05, Ed Dowd, Financial Sector, KBE, KBE-25-01, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-15, XLF, XLF-25-07 2 Comments

Where Is It?

As Ed Dowd says in this interview (time stamp: 19:16), somebody in the banking system’s holding The Old Maid.

As the overall markets continue to form what looks to be a top, maybe ‘the’ top, a process of (trade) iteration is occurring.

The objective is to determine which sector is the most vulnerable.

Short positions in the Dow and the SOXX have both been stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).

With implosion of Tricolor Auto and now First Brands, the market itself is telling us, look at financial sector(s).

With that said, short positions have been opened in XLF, and KRE; both of which so far, are holding below their early session highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

2 responses

  1. NVDA is breaking out of a consolidation; exiting the soxx short is probably correct.

    Things are getting crazy though. I was looking at overlay charts by Bravos Research of Nvidia and Cisco and they match up pretty well. But the articles I’m reading are old and Nvidia has continued to run since.

    The Lance Roberts show today compared and contrasted the average length of bubbles. Bubbles last between 1 and 5 years with the south sea bubble of 1720 being the shortest. I would estimate our current bubble started around 2020. So we should be getting closer to the end? Maybe I’m trying too hard to find a parallel.

    I’m seeing threads on forum boards about going to 100% stocks in retirement. Any talk about poor fundamentals or valuations gets you dogpiled. So the public has no fear of a stock drawdown.

    Liked by 1 person

    • This is really good information. Thank you,

      Those who are old enough, remember that CSCO and the rest of the Nasdaq in 2000 was insane. Every day higher … then higher still, then higher still, again.

      I think I was at the airport on travel for my employer when the Nasdaq broke.

      Just now, I went back and crunched the numbers on CSCO. It dropped -33%, in 3 weeks. You can’t make this stuff up.

      As for 100% in stocks … that’s more than sad to hear. Whenever the break happens this time around, the Fed is (probably) not going to save it … or can’t save it.

      The South Sea Bubble even sucked in Sir Isaac Newton … so manias are a powerful force.

      Once again, I appreciate the insight.

      Regards,

      Paul

      Like