Crypto Contagion …”Contained”

Where Have We Heard That, Before ?

Is the Genie out of the bottle?

For those who weren’t around for the last melt-down, here’s a brief refresher; links here and here … enjoy.

Of course, the amount of real damage and interconnecting links, are not yet fully known … data is still forthcoming.

However, the backpedaling has already started … ‘Let’s rebuild‘.

How about, ‘Let’s get real.’

As Michael Cowan has said: ‘This is like Lehman, but for Crypto’ … ‘Over $2-Trillion has been destroyed, just like that!’

We’re still in the destruction phase. Any ‘rebuilding’ whatever that means, is probably years down the road.

Those In The Know

Wyckoff said a century ago: ‘Somebody always knows something, and that ‘something’ shows up on the tape’.

This is where understanding price action is critical.

We in the Serfdom, won’t know the details until long after the big players have cashed out or have been bailed out.

Why would it be any different than last time?

However, their moves will show up on the tape. That will provide clues on how or where to take action (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Elephant

All of this is happening on top of there being an elephant.

For those who somehow still don’t know what’s going on, here’s just one report, among many.

Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).

It’s just after the open (9:40 a.m., EST) and both positions listed below, have opened higher.


Entry @ 18.1398: Stop @ 16.83


Entry @ 9.1666: Stop @ 8.79

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After the ‘plug is pulled …’

Updated, 12/18/21, with notes in blue text.

Jerimiah Babe:

‘The real money’s going to be made, after the plug is pulled’

Well, that’s close.

Actually, the real money’s made on the way down … when the plug is pulled … not after.

‘After’, is when you take the huge gains from the short side and then allocate that to areas which stand to recover … or at least have a good chance of recovery.

It’s a two-step process:

Nobody demonstrated that better than Livermore himself during the panic of 1907.

It’s probably no surprise that panic was potentially a fabricated event (sound familiar?).

It laid the groundwork for the Federal Reserve act of 1913.

Operating in parallel, we have the following:

Titanic engineering design approval: July of 1908.

Construction begins: March 1909.

Sea trials: Early April, 1912

Titanic ‘sinks’: April 15, 1912.

April 15th, is tax day … coincidence … no.

Whether or not there really is a ship (or which one is) at the bottom of the Atlantic, is immaterial.

What’s important, was that it all may have been a controlled demolition of the financial system so that it cold be ‘reset’ to allow fractional reserve banking.

The fly in the ointment? Unexpectedly, Livermore owned the market at the bottom. He could have single handedly destroyed the financial system by executing more short selling.

That’s when J.P. Morgan (possibly chief cook and bottle washer for the ‘reset’) called him in to appeal to Livermore’s ‘patriotism’; to not destroy the market. You can’t make this stuff up.

So, it’s time to reset the system every hundred years or so.

Just like it’s time to have a medical ‘incident’ and reduce the population every hundred years or so:

2019: ‘The Speck’

1918: ‘Espana’ Flu

1817: ‘Cholera’

1718: ‘Plague’

How does this relate to the markets? For this update, the preamble above, brings us to gold (GLD):

Gold (GLD) Analysis:

It’s no secret, price action in GLD and the miners (GDX, GDXJ), has been analyzed for months as bearish.

The weekly chart shows GLD, right at the edge of a terminating wedge; about to break lower:

The measured move … to around GLD ~ 120, is exactly at the Fibonacci 161.8%, projection (not shown).

If there’s a wedge breakdown, we have two separate measurement techniques targeting the same area.

Gold (GLD) did break lower but has not progressed to the measured move. Latest update is here and here.

The next chess move, is probably not going to be dollar destruction.

No. The next move is likely to be as stated before, supply chain shut-down with the objective of ‘starve them out’.

Correct but not the way the media plays it.

They attempt to tie it to ‘climate change‘. Yes, the climate is changing but the earth is getting colder, not warmer. Crop failures are the result.

Couple that with intentional weather modification (weaponization), controlled demolition of the supply chain and voila! Food becomes scarce or more expensive or both.

In a prior update, when that statement was made, it may have sounded extreme. Now, we have this interview and time stamp (8:11), where we get the exact same thing.

Take Action:

This article, just out on ZeroHege is a good one-stop shop to start or continue being out in front of ‘events’.

Here’s a brief video of one man’s action, in action:

Four hens, a rooster, in an urban setting (houses on three sides).

The rooster was not part of the plan. If you look closely, you can see his ‘No Crow‘ collar … it works most of the time.

He was unexpected but is now seen as an asset.

He keeps the hens under control (otherwise, they fight) and gets them all back in the coop at night.

Is it a hassle: Yes.

Is it messy: Yes.

Will the neighbors not care about the crowing, be clamoring (and paying with cash, gold, silver) for eggs and chicks three months from now, if/when food shipments are cut off? Probably, yes

Mass recognition of potential famine to come in the spring when the farmers do not have enough ‘inputs’ (seed, fertilizer) for a viable crop.

Don’t forget about no spare parts for farm equipment.


The rooster, “Scaboo” was such a happy camper that he was crowing all day.

He was moved outside of town to a more rural location.

We still have access to him if needed for fertilized eggs.

Here is, all grown up and strutting his stuff

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Ripple Effect’

12:23 p.m., EST

Wells Fargo: Just the start?

The short answer is probably yes; but that’s only one problem.

Everyone’s subject to ‘normalcy bias‘ as Nissam Taleb puts it; Today’s like yesterday and tomorrow will be like today.

The news on Wells Fargo shows how quickly that can change.

Here’s a YouTube link; one man’s assessment on what happens now.

He proposes a ‘ripple effect’.

Events have been set in motion; not necessarily immediately but it has started nonetheless.

Market Positioning:

So, here we are going into the weekend.

Does anyone want to be long the market at this point (not advice, not a recommendation)?

There must be some that do as we’re still at elevated levels.

The trade approach implemented on this site (i.e., positioning short), takes into account and actually plans for a ‘disconnect’.

Only the inexperienced or naïve think (at this time in market history) they can get out as easily as they got in; i.e. day and swing trading.

Analysis: SPBIO (LABD):

We’ll start close in first and look at the hourly LABD:

Price action has come back to test the boundary (blue line).

As frustrating as it might seem (and it is), this is normal market behavior. The market itself has to define who is in control; bulls or bears.

It’s never ending.

That’s why a case has been built on the fundamental side; why biotech is subject to a massive implosion.

That backdrop, is being supported (little by little) with price action and thus, helps keep the mind focused.

If we pull out to the daily, we see the familiar trend-line(s):

We’re at another danger point. Price action can go either way.

If LABD pivots higher from here, it’s one more confirmation that we’re trending higher (SPBIO, lower) into our October-exit timeframe (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Squeeze Is On

Pre market activity (8:31 a.m. EST) has TLT trading up +0.74, at 161.29, which is above the target level set in the last update.

We’ve already laid the groundwork for the ‘speculator’s’ short position in bonds as the largest in history.

It’s the ‘commercials’ that know their markets and in this case (according to Steven Van Metre), the commercials are the banks.

Isn’t it interesting. The banks always get their money, right?

Well, that may be about to happen now, as well.

Just a quick digression from today’s update and concerning the Van Metre link above. At time stamp 14:29, he shows a Wyckoff accumulation schematic. Nice.

From a trading standpoint, there are leveraged bond funds such as TMF (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, this firm has never traded that vehicle and is choosing to be short the junior gold miners (JDST) as well as long natural gas (UNG) for its current positioning.

Natural gas (UNG) for a seasonal trade … with some potential supply disruptions thrown in; the Junior Gold Miner short position (JDST) to work the ‘deflation’ side of what’s going on.

Reports here and here, provide documentation on the thinking behind those positions.  Searching for UNG and JDST will give the full gamut of research.

Back to the markets. If we’re doing our job right and there’s a huge down-draft, we’ll already be in position to profit as a matter of course.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Is Corn The Catalyst?

Bonds, biotech, the banks; or is it corn that’s the catalyst?

Everyone’s focused on the markets, the S&P 500.

Fotosearch_k8956751Meanwhile, back at the farm (literally), the food supply is undergoing controlled demolition.

If the supply chain continues to be restricted with prices rising ever higher, the silver and gold ‘stackers’, may have to liquidate their hoard just to survive.

Getting back to corn; the technical position of the ETF, CORN was highlighted yesterday in this post.

Now, with about an hour before market close, CORN has posted a 38% retrace and reversal ( if close is at or above current levels).

On top of that, it may be too early but maybe not.  CORN is now trending upward at over 400%, annualized.

One day, does not a trend make.  Then again, wouldn’t it be nice to know early on of the possibility?


Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.