For those who were there in 1987, and later in 2000, the market’s rise was relentless … until it wasn’t.
With the SOXX pushing through to new highs (all shorts closed), one gets the feeling, unless there’s a reversal soon, we’ve now entered a very dangerous stage a la 1987 (not advice, not a recommendation).
The bond market’s signaling that ‘something’s up’. The financials (XLF) have just topped and reversed. Banking (KRE) appears to be at some kind of top and on it goes.
Financial Sector XLF, Daily
If I was short this sector (FAZ-26-01), the stop would be today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
All eyes seem to be on reports like this, as if it’s a good thing while the nerdy kid in the back, is frantically waving, trying to get everyone’s attention.
All you need to know, link above, is in the first 55-seconds.
‘There’s never been a run like this’
It’s ok, this rally has legs because we’re believing the misconception, earnings move prices … so, all is well (not advice, not a recommendation).
Meanwhile, Back at The Bank
‘Ox Talks‘ has been relentlessly covering the truth; that truth is, the A.I. (and credit) narrative is imploding in real time (not advice, not a recommendation).
Which brings us to the banks.
The chart of Regional Banking ETF, KRE, shows what might be happening.
S&P Regional Banking ETF, KRE, Weekly
The Interpretation:
Wyckoff up-thrust in February, followed by ‘sign of supply’ in March, then up for a test.
We’re on a weekly timeframe; whatever happens has the potential for some duration.
With the breakdown, the test appears to be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The section at left, shows the bank (KRE) rebound from last Thursday’s sell-off, losing steam.
In the early part of this interview with Ed Dowd, he states the banks are ‘rolling over’ as a result of a ‘toxic brew’ of economic conditions (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s not really the morning after but being the day after Friday’s action, we’ll call it even.
Two shorts closed and three opened.
Both the XLF, and UBER, shorts were closed; one with profit, one not. Then, three more opened (not advice, not a recommendation).
As stated in the comments on this previous post, it’s possible the banking index KRE, is not going to make it to Fibonacci Day 34, this Wednesday.
Time counts are always secondary to price action.
Next up, is the silver market.
It’s a no-brainer that something’s ready to break. The press and YouTubers, et al., would have you believe that were finally ‘putting it to the man’. The ‘paper manipulation’ is over, so it goes.
Mabe that’s right this time around.
However, I’ll stick with the market-makers that have been in control since the buttonwood tree. 🙂
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
What if there’s not enough money in the coffers, for a bank bail-out?
Last week’s chaos is still in the ‘next shoe-to-drop’, stage:
Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge 50% As Cracks Deepen Across U.S. Credit Markets, link here.
The Bizarre Bankruptcy At The Heart Of This Week’s Regional Bank Meltdown, link here.
“This Is Crazy”: Goldman Stunned By Regional Bank Meltdown; Its Clients Demand Answers To These 3 Questions, link here.
Wyckoff Had The Edge
The market itself told us ahead of time, something’s up.
The top in XLF, identified here. On the heels of that, literally hours before the Dow melt-down, this post.
Note: The Dow post even suggested potential action:
“From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.”
The Dow pushed higher in the first fifteen-minutes of trade and then collapsed.
Focus Amidst The Chaos
The analysis links above are a reminder; as the chaos increases, focus is to remain on price action itself.
Let the market tell us its (own) next probable direction.
All of which brings us to the chart.
Financial Sector XLF, Daily
The zoom area shows at least three contact points on a possible trendline (Wed, Thu, Fri).
Short position XLF-25-08, entered early on Thursday, and pyramided late on Friday (not advice, not a recommendation).
Expectations, Next Week
Obviously, the expectation is for continued downside. We’ll probably know late on Sunday, if that’s likely to happen.
The XLF is labeled as EXTO (extended trading hours) eligible. If there’s even a hint of (sustained) upside pressure, the exit may come as early as Sunday night (not advice, not a recommendation)
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 