Category Archives: Ed Dowd

SOXX … ‘Exhaustion’ Gap?

May 27, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-05, SOXX, Thoughtful Money Leave a comment

We’ll Know Soon

It was an ‘outside-down’ day for the SOXX.

Even with that, we still have what looks like an exhaustion gap, yet to be filled (chart below).

Taking the entire pre-market and after-market sessions into account, as of this post (5:45 p.m., EST), the SOXX has retraced to near the 38% level (not advice, not a recommendaiton).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

As Ed Dowd said in a recent interview:

‘Whenever this (A.I., semiconductor)) unwind happens, it’s going to be quick.’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Like, Never Before’

May 24, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Ed Dowd, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-04, SOXX, SPY, Thoughtful Money, TLT Leave a comment

Unprecedented

The market rally’s unprecedented; like never before.

Will it be the same on the way down? (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adam Taggart says in the latest Ed Dowd interview:

‘Vertical moves don’t correct by going sideways’

Some Highlights

The entire interview is worth the time. However, some excerpts are below. Time stamps are in (parentheses).

Market summary (2:20)

Double ordering of inventory (8:28)

Helium shortage (9:00)

The beginning of the end (9:30)

Bonds, long term lows (10:48)

All you need is one company to slow ordering (13:30)

‘You don’t crash from tops’ (14:18)

‘I’ve never seen anything like this’ (14:40)

Price washout, sets up opportunities (19:30)

A.I. creating more problems than it solves (43:20)

Nvidia to retrace 80% – 90% (45:30)

This is my third rodeo … it’s all echoing (47:25)

‘It’s going to be fast’ (48:07)

Oil breakout (49:15)

Gold, source of liquidity (59:20)

Buffett’s at 40% cash (1:01:00)

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Selling Short, TXN

April 10, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Semiconductors, TXN, TXN-26-08, Up-Thrust

A Generational Top?

It almost goes without saying, market events are taking place on a massive scale.

Ed Dowd, has said repeatedly in his interviews:

‘When it’s all said and done, I expect Nvidia to be down 80% to 90%’ (not advice not a recommendation).

However, there are others besides Nvidia, with significant downside potential.

Case in point, Texas Instruments.

There’ve been several recent updates on TXN. The most significant one, linked here.

It’s possible, right now, today, is a test of the all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Texas Instruments TXN, Weekly

One thing can be said with some certainty, we’re at The Danger Point®, where risk on a short is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the February update shows, it’s been 26-years since the other massive upward spike in Force Index.

Last time that happened, TXN imploded 87% (not advice, to a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Nvidia … Fails & Falls

March 28, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Ed Dowd, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, TLT, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

One Reversal, After Another

‘The press refuses to report the facts’.

Before we get to Nvidia, let’s start with that nugget, just out, at this link (Time Stamp: 3:40).

How about another one.

‘Iran’s going to win this war’ (Time Stamp: 8:00).

Ok, one more, then the chart.

‘The bond market’s just getting killed’ (Time Stamp: 9:05).

Interest rates higher, not lower, has been a strategic premise on this site, for years (not advice, not a recommendation).

Supporting that statement, links here, here, here and here, all the way back to 2023 (at least).

As always, price action itself, will let us know if an upside reversal is at hand.

Now, on to Nvidia.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Price action has successively attempted to push above resistance levels, then printed an ‘up-thrust’, and reversed.

Nvidia finished the week, closing at 167.52, with support (closes) at 167.02 -167.03, printed on 9/5/25 and 7/22/25, respectively.

‘Normal’ market behavior is a bounce off support to test underside resistance … the key word being ‘normal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Lastly, here’s the latest from Ed Dowd, concerning Nvidia, link here, (Time Stamp: 24:48).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Capitulation, and Kick-Off

March 6, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Semiconductors, SOXX

What, Was That?

The semiconductor SOXX, ETF just had its largest ever, weekly downward thrust energy.

The last time it got close, was the downside ‘capitulation’ back in early April, last year.

Other than those two events, there’s never been a similar extreme going all the way back to July of 2001.

Semiconductors ETF, SOXX, Weekly

As the note says, it’s unknown if this is an actual kick-off to a sustained downside.

With such an historic print lower, ‘normal’ market behavior is for some kind of upside testing next week (not advice, not a recommendation).

Recall, in the various Ed Dowd interviews, his comments to the effect:

‘When this thing (A.I. mania) starts to unravel, it’s going to happen quickly’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX: Reversal & Retrace (so far)

March 2, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, SOXX

What’s Next?

The price segment at left, shows the SOXX reversing from all-time highs, lower into minor support, then retrace.

That move is in line with the Nvidia reversal on its earnings release.

As we’ve heard many times (Ed Dowd, Ox Talks and others), just the hint of slowing sales may be enough to kick off a sustained downside move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow is ‘Day 5’ from all-time highs.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Healthcare … Top & Test

January 17, 2026 By in Daniela Cambone, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, Health Care, Thoughtful Money, UNH, XLV

The ‘Elephant’

The top 30% of components for the XLV sector, are drug companies.

Then, comes UnitedHealth UNH, rounding it out to about 36%, of market cap.

No matter what happens with news like this, the overall landscape is shifting, link here.

As for the ‘elephant’, listening to a few select interviews of Ed Dowd via Daniela Cambone, Peak Financial, Gerg Hunter, Thoughtful Money, and others, then, you already know.

Click those names on the side-bar tag, for more research.

Now, on to the chart.

Health Care Sector XLV, Weekly Close

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … ‘It’s Different This Time’

December 28, 2025 By in Bert Dohmen, Ed Dowd, Gold & Silver, SLV

Deflationary Pressures

This is not 1980, or 2011, says the report at this link. Website, link here.

The premise for ‘it’s different’, is the demand for ‘physical delivery’.

The chart in yesterday’s post, showed tracking fund SLV, very close to its Fibonacci 161.8% projection, near 76.30.

If we refer back to recent interviews with Ed Dowd, and to some extent, Bert Dohmen, they both talk about the current bubble(s).

However, Ed Dowd in particular, discusses the potential for a ‘deflation scare’.

That in turn, allows a provocative thought:

Maybe, deflationary pressures are so intense, the only way to get a blow-off mania spike (this time), is to demand delivery and stress the infrastructure (not advice, not a recommendation).

The futures market opens, in about 10-hours.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Another Wedge … Expedia

November 29, 2025 By in 1907, APP, CARR, CDNS, CVNA, CVNA-25-17, EBAY, EBAY-25-01, Ed Dowd, EXPE, EXPE-25-01, Livermore, NFLX, NVDA, ORCL, SPOT, TEL, Terminating Wedge, UBER, Wyckoff 1 Comment

‘Ending Moves’

Back in the day, Jesse Livermore nearly went bust attempting to short the downside of what became, The Panic of 1907.

Stopped out time and again, he finally (according to Wyckoff) hawked his car to rase capital.

Form nearly broke, to closing out short trades on October 24th 1907, net profit over $1-milllion.

With that, we have a strategic picture, in focus.

During a recent interview, Ed Dowd discussed the +35.95% gap (and close) on Oracle, as a result of ‘projections‘.

The take-away (from him) was these types of moves are ‘ending moves’, not the beginning of a new bull run.

Since then, price action has fully retraced.

ORCL, is currently down a whopping -41.6%, from its all-time highs. Hardly a bull market.

We’ve presented eBay in a similar position.

Carvana, launched itself above resistance at Friday’s close. In so doing, got itself into another wedge.

Now we have Expedia, looking eerily similar (not advice, not a recommendation).

Like eBay, we’ll start with the long term, quarterly chart.

Expedia EXPE, Quarterly

The latest earnings release pushed EXPE up, contacting the upper trendline.

A gap higher and close of +17.55%, in one day.

EXPE has since backed off the all-time high; currently down about -8.5%.

Edge of The Wedge

The following is a partial list of tickers either forming a (monthly) terminating wedge, or have broken out to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)

APP, CARR, CDNS, CVNA, EBAY, EXPE, NFLX, NVDA, SPOT, TEL, UBER

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

No ‘Santa’ for Amazon

November 23, 2025 By in AMZN, Ed Dowd, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLY, XLY-25-01 3 Comments

This Year, is Different

As is typical for this time of year, the pundits are out talking about the Santa Claus rally.

We’re literally hours away (Sunday futures), from finding out if there’s even a chance of that happening.

One sector that’s not looking too well, is the consumer and proxy, Amazon.

Amazon AMZN, Daily

As can been seen, a wedge is typically a terminating pattern, signaling the end (or near end) of the move.

The important part, while there are small wedge formations, we’re also in a much larger wedge that’s broken to the downside.

Let’s zoom-in, and look at the far-right side.

The earnings blow-off was not only a wedge, but on a longer timeframe, a Wyckoff up-thrust as well.

Here’s the link to the Amazon press release.

There’s plenty of discussion about A.I. saving the day.

Ed Dowd has presented in his interviews, from an overall economic standpoint, the A.I. ‘excuse’ for efficiency improvements, layoffs, is just a ruse to cover the fact, demand is collapsing.

With that said, AMZN has broken the downside of its wedge and has potentially completed a test of that break.

With futures to open soon, we might find out (today) if downside action is to continue (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279