Category Archives: Ed Dowd

Newmont … Deep Kimchi Decision

April 27, 2024 By in Biotech, Bloor Street Capital, Ed Dowd, Genesis 41, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, NEM, Real Estate, XBI 3 Comments

Time To Round Up, The Loonies?

If there’s one market attracting huge numbers of grifters, carpetbaggers, peddlers, and all-around crazies, it’s precious metals.

I’ve been hearing from this crowd, ‘the government’s going to collapse, the dollar’s going to collapse’, since the early 1980s.

As said many times before, I like precious metals as much as the next guy.

However, from a strategy standpoint, with each passing day, we see it’s the food supply (here, and here) that comes first (not advice, not a recommendation).

What’s currently taking place is so much more complicated (in my opinion) than just ‘stacking’.

Let’s not forget the flood of ‘fake’ or ‘diluted‘ precious metals and other chicanery; like having your coin-shop bank account closed for no apparent reason.

Well, we have to keep the loonies on the path which brings us to our case in point, Newmont Mining, NEM.

Newmont, Good News is Bad News

Gold price has moved higher over the past four to five months and expectedly, that’s been noted in Newmont’s latest Quarterly release, link here.

NEM, stock price at ‘nine-month highs’, what’s not to like?

It’s when we look at the chart, we see a different story.

Newmont Mining, NEM, Weekly

After all the ‘good news’, NEM has only retraced an anemic 23.6%, of its overall downside move.

Note the close on Friday was right at the 23.6% level, giving it even more significance.

This level has also become an ‘axis line’ as exhibited by price action going back to August of 2022.

By The Numbers

When looking through the major sectors, retrace (and reversal) from 23.6%, is becoming more frequent.

Two other indices posting and reversing from that level (measured from recent highs), are biotech XBI, and real estate, IYR.

NEM, What’s Next?

Thursday, 4/25, was a wide bar with heavy volume.

We’ve stopped at the retrace, which is also resistance, confirmed by price action in late December. ’23.

A reasonable expectation is NEM, retraces, testing the wide bar and volume before continuing to the downside or moving back higher to a breakout (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part III

April 20, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Elsa Kurt, Gold & Silver, Greg Hunter, NVDA, SLV 1 Comment

Less Volume … Less Energy

Public Service Announcement

Before we get started, recognize there’s a huge public service available with the (media, YouTubers, et al.) discussion on potential gold, silver, rally ‘to the moon’.

Now that Nvidia (NVDA) has posted a reversal, it’s likely the bull market, if not completely over, is seriously damaged.

As Ed Dowd, former BlackRock fund manager suggested, (link here), when the market turns lower, everything’s likely to head down … everything; at least, initially.

The public service: We get to see (in real time) which analysis method is best suited to determine the truth of what’s really happening.

With that, let’s move on to the chart.

Silver SLV, Tracking ETF, Weekly

If this is an initial thrust to move higher, it’s losing energy; narrow range (weekly) bar with volume contracting.

If we’re in an up-thrust about, to reverse lower or consolidate, this is the type of market behavior to expect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Delusional In … Delusional Out

Like the Artificial Intelligence (AI) delusion, hyped-up beyond all conceivable expectations, it takes a while to deflate.

This past Friday may have been the start.

So too, it could be with precious metals.

If indeed, this time is different, and were in a sustained, long term (years-long) rally for silver (SLV), then look for the character of the price action to change.

One potential example of that would be, successive gaps higher of $5/oz., $10/oz., or more.

A real bull market breakout (like the S&P in 1995), does not let you get aboard comfortably.

Note: That breakout in ’95, was a complete shock to the typical market watcher.

The S&P had oscillated in a trading range for a year before launching decidedly higher in early ’95. In that sense, the breakout is/was the complete opposite of the ‘long awaited’ (potential) bull run in precious metals.

The Mood Has Shifted

Anecdotally, the mood appears to have shifted.

If we’ve just past the top in the market (S&P, Dow, SOXX), then expect the social construct to become unhinged.

Here’s just one example of how that looks.

If you thought it was irrational on the way up … what’s it going to be like on the way down?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Breakdown … Is This It?

April 16, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Dr. Elder, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, LABD, SPBIO, UNG, USO, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

‘Respecting’ Fibonacci … So Far

Before we get started, biotech may have decisively turned the corner to the downside with this, just out … maybe.

‘Zero Respect For Thieves’

Before we get started, with getting started, a brief mention on thievery.

Years ago, Dr. Elder stated he had ‘zero respect for thieves’; those who had stolen his book tile, ‘Trading For A Living’, in various forms.

When you have limited skills and even less insight, thievery is the only way to go … that is, until you’re found-out.

Turns out, the analysis of silver SLV, posted on this site (here and here) nearly two weeks ago, specifically the presence of SLV volume ‘spikes’ at inflection points, may have been ‘lifted’ without citation by a prominent YouTuber (who will not be named … yet).

It may have been just a coincidence. If so, all is well. However, a ‘second time’, not so much. So, let’s all play ‘nice’ shall we? 🙂

Now, on to biotech.

Biotech, XBI, Daily

This update is being released just before the open. It looks like XBI, is about gap-lower.

We see in the chart, XBI, is respecting the Fibonacci projections.

As with the recent oil market analysis and USO, (here and here) we let the market decide what areas are important.

In the case of XBI, and unless significant demand comes in, lower prices appear to be the most probable direction (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Globe Life … ‘Vaporized’

April 11, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. John Campbell, Ed Dowd, GL, LABD, Life Insurance, SPBIO, XBI

Is This, The ‘Go-Forward’ Model?

In just one day, Globe Life closes down – 53.14%, on historic volume, over 35-million shares.

No matter the narrative, it shows just how fast a market can implode.

Years ago, while watching an episode of Wall Street Week, with Louis Rukeyser, one of his guests commented on a corporation that released (unexpectedly) bad earnings.

He said … ‘I believe in the cockroach theory. Where there’s one, there’s more’.

Does anyone think Globe Life is, or will be, an isolated incident? This could even be a ‘Lehman Moment‘ and we just don’t know it (not advice, not a recommendation).

Up-coming (potential) problems with life insurance have already been covered; best described in this brief four-minute clip, link here.

The Biotech Connection

The connection between biotech and life insurance can be correlated with this link and this one.

Biotech, XBI, Daily

The chart below, is slightly different from one’s typically presented on this site.

It’s on the daily timeframe but it’s compressed to better show the sector sub-dividing lower.

Yesterday’s Fibonacci analysis may still apply but we won’t really know until we see tomorrow’s action.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

There Are No ‘Rate Cuts’

March 22, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Appalachia's Homestead, Biotech, Dr. John Campbell, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Greg Hunter, Interest Rates, LABD, Michael Bordenaro, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff, XBI 2 Comments

‘There Is No Spoon’

We’re in the surreal; like The Matrix.

YouTube content creators have noticed the public’s inability, refusal, and denial to recognize (or accept) the truth:

Michael Bordenaro; ‘everybody’s so weak, so sensitive, they can’t handle the facts.’

Patera, Appalachia’s Homestead; discussing her lineage (Cherokee) and history, seeing the similarities of today, applying the lessons; some are more concerned about her hair and makeup.

Then, Uneducated Economist; ‘no amount of wishing is going to bring events back to the way it was. It’s effectively a new construct.’

Interest Rate Ruse

The 40-year bull market in bonds is over; rates are not going lower, they’re going higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Ignoring or refusing to recognize this (highly probable) truth when analyzing markets, is a potential strategic error.

The longer the ruse goes on, the more violent the reaction may be when the masses (finally) ‘awake’.

All of which brings us to biotech, XBI, SPBIO, $SPSIBI.

Biotech Truth

Truth about biotech is brutal; described here, here and here.

Exactly how this will all hit the mainstream in force, is unknown. However, let’s not forget, ‘when price action goes south, bad news comes out’.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Heading south at this point, is biotech XBI.

Market test of the Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) appears complete; previously discussed here, here and here.

As of 1:40 p.m., EST, XBI is trading back into congestion (92 – 96) and looks to have formed a trading channel.

Left channel contact line shown as No. 1, is supported by this post, potential long-term reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Interest Rate Snare

January 11, 2024 By in DUST, Ed Dowd, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, JDST, SLV, Wyckoff

Manipulated Into The Trap

‘They [The Fed] are totally tricking the markets’ (time stamp 3:30), link here.

Yes, it’s a real chess game going on and the other side, makes up the rules.

This update presents that despite all the manipulation and head-fakes, significant market pivots in the miners were identified (correctly) with Wyckoff analysis.

That analysis, in turn, helped develop a long-term strategy (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

Three key points are shown on the chart. 

The first goes all the way back to October of 2020, link here. There’s something wrong with the miners.

Potential for another downward pivot, link here, was identified to-the-week, if not, to-the-day.

The subsequent move printed the most impulsive price action since the spike melt-down of early 2020.

Which brings us to today.

Another potential pivot has been identified, link here.

As of this post (11:20 a.m., EST) the Juniors GDXJ, continue to rachet lower.

The Long Term

As Ed Dowd points out in this interview, what’s happening now will affect us all for decades, if not centuries to come.

Therefore, it’s a good idea to have a long-term strategy.

From the above chart, it’s clear that Wyckoff analysis has been on the correct side of GDXJ price action; the bearish side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.