‘Trading is an old man’s game; you need to have a good, long memory.’
Well, the author of these updates is certainly old … well into his sixties and with a long memory; The crash of ’87, debt wipeout of ’98, tech bubble crash of 2000, the 2008 meltdown and now, today.
Those advanced years tempers one’s desire to constantly jump in and out on the swings. Not to say that might need to be the method at the time; but like Van Metre’s approach, the big money’s in the big move.
The jobs data released yesterday basically tells us ‘The economy ain’t coming back’ … possibly ever, in our lifetimes.
We’re at an order of magnitude greater than 1929; it was thirty years before that market returned to its prior levels.
Which brings us back to real estate and IYR. The P&F chart shows us, if there’s a breakout to the downside, initial projection of the move is to support around 69 – 73.
Keep in mind that if (or as) price action passes down through the low 80’s, it then builds up another area of congestion projecting even lower. The initial breakdown would only be the start of downside potential.
With that in mind, the firm is in position (not advice, not a recommendation) using DRV as the trade vehicle. Stop level is in the vicinity of yesterday’s DRV low @ 10.38.
Trades are focused on specific price action; therefore, tend to be concentrated only in one or two markets at any time.
We know from a fundamental standpoint, there’s no (or very little) demand for oil and the by-products. Steven Van Metre has contacts in the field that are feeding him information on what’s really going on.
While some of the minions that watch his updates complain about the colors of his moving averages, we’re more interested in the anecdotal data such as ‘oil inventories are piling up’.
Even better was the comment (a few weeks back) that EIA data is not telling the whole story. There’s even more oil than what’s in the report.
That’s our backdrop for shorting the XOP by using DUG. Not advice, not a recommendation.
Recall that DUG, with regards to the firm’s broker, has stated “not marginable” indicating especially high volatility.
Ever since the inland hurricane, the ‘Derecho’ of August 10th, it’s never been the same for corn.Now, it’s going vertical.
The entire U.S. agricultural food supply infrastructure is being systematically dismantled. Control the food, control the population. Simple.
It seems the ‘preppers’ tend to focus on stockpiling silver and gold.
If your’re getting ready for what’s coming, from a historical perspective, that’s not the place to start.
Going way back …. thousands of years, during the famine in Egypt of Joseph’s time, we have this:
“And Joseph gathered corn as the sand of the sea, very much, until he left numbering; for it was without number”
“And the famine was over all the face of the Earth: and Joseph opened all the storehouses and sold unto the Egyptians: and the famine waxed sore in the land of Egypt.”
“And all countries came unto Joseph for to buy corn; because that the famine was so sore in all lands.”
Gen 41: Vs. 49, 56, 57, KJV
They paid for the corn first, with gold and silver. Then they paid with their livestock. Then they paid by selling themselves into life-long slavery. We can equate that last part (slavery) as getting the vax.
As corn is going vertical, the bond market is signaling its move as well.
Just now, today, TLT is rotating higher.
Yesterday, Steven Van Metre showed a chart (time stamp 10:00) of the speculators beginning to back off their historic short position.
They’ve figured out they’re trapped. Now, they’re trying to sneak out the door without being completely impaled on a sharp bond spike.
The S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, all appear to be holding near their highs.
Markets press on, new highs. However, biotech (IBB) is losing luster.
It could be just a temporary blip on the road upward.
Or, there could be something else afoot not known to the general public … and possibly not even known to professional speculators and market traders.
The video link below is to an alternate (independent) platform. One among many popping up in response to ‘adjustments’ being made by YouTube.
The video at this link is nearly an hour long. It’s one of those things that upon viewing the entire presentation, one can never be the same.
Viewer beware. For those with short attentions, fast forward to Time Stamp 22:50, for the meat.
Wyckoff stated a century ago ‘the reason for a move is always revealed after the fact’; we might find if IBB reverses from here and does not look back, the link above may ultimately become the ‘reason’ for such a move.
Imagine if this presentation becomes widespread knowledge … where will biotech be then?
Of course, price action is always the final arbiter. Positions (and stops) remain unchanged.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.