GDX Reversing, As We Speak

If GDX price action continues lower, it may have completed its test forecasted three-days ago.

The gold market is a very crowded trade. At this point, one to be avoided (not advice, not a recommendation).

If GDX posts a new daily low (below 35.40), it would give extra weight, the test is complete.

At the minimum, price action has recognized the bear flag by coming back up to test and then pulling away.

That alone, should give the gold bulls some pause.

In other markets, real estate IYR, did exactly as forecast. It opened below yesterday’s close and retreated from there.

The upward test, also discussed in this morning’s update may have already happened; there’s a 38% retrace present on 30-minute or shorter time-frames.

Correspondingly, the DRV position has been increased (not advice, not a recommendation). At this point we have an absolute hard stop: Yesterday’s DRV low, @ 9.67.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Ancient Art: Point & Figure

You don’t hear about Pont & Figure anymore. P&F looks old, stodgy and boring; but that’s exactly how one should approach the markets to be consistently profitable.

Paraphrasing Dr. Elder from ‘Come Into My Trading Room‘, he says:

‘Trading is an old man’s game; you need to have a good, long memory.’

Well, the author of these updates is certainly old … well into his sixties and with a long memory; The crash of ’87, debt wipeout of ’98, tech bubble crash of 2000, the 2008 meltdown and now, today.

Those advanced years tempers one’s desire to constantly jump in and out on the swings. Not to say that might need to be the method at the time; but like Van Metre’s approach, the big money’s in the big move.

The jobs data released yesterday basically tells us ‘The economy ain’t coming back’ … possibly ever, in our lifetimes.

We’re at an order of magnitude greater than 1929; it was thirty years before that market returned to its prior levels.

Which brings us back to real estate and IYR. The P&F chart shows us, if there’s a breakout to the downside, initial projection of the move is to support around 69 – 73.

Keep in mind that if (or as) price action passes down through the low 80’s, it then builds up another area of congestion projecting even lower. The initial breakdown would only be the start of downside potential.

With that in mind, the firm is in position (not advice, not a recommendation) using DRV as the trade vehicle. Stop level is in the vicinity of yesterday’s DRV low @ 10.38.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Good Short, Bad Short

Seems like Tesla (TSLA) is always in the news.

Now, we have ‘the big short’, as reported by The Money GPS, doubling down on a possible even bigger short.

Is TSLA a good short opportunity or just a high visibility gamble; or maybe at this point in our history, just another psy-op?

How many minions are flagellating themselves over TSLA, anyway?

From a trading standpoint, TLSA could reverse from here. It could also gap higher into a wedge throw-over. With the weekly MACD showing no signs of erosion, probabilities are about equal.

Bad Short

Now, let’s look at another chart:

Real estate, IYR is showing classic signs it’s about ready to roll over.

Its been struggling for months at the 85-86 area and just yesterday, posted a new weekly low.

Yesterday as well, bonds reversed to the upside. Pre-market activity points to a higher open … solidifying the reversal.

On top of that, the dollar shows a higher open having (downward) tested its up-trend at the last session.

The list can go on but we see the difference.

One is a gamble (or even a psy-op manipulation of followers) and the other is a trade with high probabilities.

Good Short

The table below has current positioning (not advice, not a recommendation):

Special Update: 9:52 a.m. EST. Price action in DRV pushed to stop level and has recovered quickly.

Position is being maintained (for now) with analysis to follow.

Update: 2:21 p.m. EST. IYR looks to be headed to a 38% retrace at approx 84.25, level. All DRV positions exited. Will look to re-enter shorts at higher level, price action depending.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Real Estate: Sleepy & Quiet

At least that’s the way it looks right now.

Under the radar, the sector (IYR) may be getting ready for a dramatic break lower.

The chart above is the 3X inverse fund DRV (inverse of IYR).

The table shows entries over the past few days; not advice, not a recommendation. Currently, the firm has no other open positions.

Early in this morning’s session, IYR posted a new daily low with DRV conversely, posting a new daily high.

At this juncture (11:23 a.m. EST), we’re in a very tight range (both tickers, IYR, DRV) that’s oscillating in an attempt to determine the direction of least resistance.

From a weekly momentum standpoint, MACD has been positing lower for two weeks and is near a zero crossing.

With that, we’re favoring the downside for IYR and upside for DRV.

The market’s hovering at all time highs … effectively masking the fact, air is going out of IYR.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dollar Up, Market Down?

The dollar has been inversely correlated since March of last year.

A reversal was identified in this report which thus far, has proved correct.

Bonds are also showing higher in the pre-market, having met a measured move (wedge) target last week.

The UUP, weekly close has price action slowing its decline, stopping and then reversing. That’s where we are now.

Weekly MACD ticked up (slightly) last week and higher open this morning, would confirm the divergence.

Market sentiment readings as reported by J. Bravo (time stamp 1:00) are literally, off the charts.

On top of that, internet scuttlebutt over the weekend shows at this juncture, absolutely anything can happen.

Having a market stance (or position) that includes possibility of power outages, banks going off-line, internet disruptions and general overall chaos, would seem to be reasonable.

In line with that, entries were made in DRV last week as shown (not advice, not a recommendation):

Pre-market activity for IYR, points to a lower open, DRV higher.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Failed Moves

There’s nothing more dramatic and profitable than a failed move.

The controlling party, bulls or bears push the market in their direction; only to find out, there’re out of fuel.

The opposing side has been gathering forces to mount an offensive.

Perhaps the most famous ‘gathering of forces’ was the failure of Long Term Capital Management.

If memory serves correctly, it was Goldman Sachs that found out LTCM was over leveraged and overextended.

They used that data for their benefit.

That’s not to say the failed move in the Oil & Gas Exploration (XOP) market is anywhere near the LTCM level.  Just saying, markets are fractal and failed moves occur on all time frames.

The daily chart of XOP shows the failed attempt to break above resistance. 

Price action was swift in the early session; then stalled at mid-day and retreated quickly into the close.

That retreat brought price below resistance … indicating significant weakness.

The short position in biotech (via BIS) was profitable but it did not have the potential for swift action like shorting XOP.

Since the firm follows the tenets of Gerald M. Loeb (late Vice Chairman of E.F. Hutton), we do not diversify.

Trades are focused on specific price action; therefore, tend to be concentrated only in one or two markets at any time.

We know from a fundamental standpoint, there’s no (or very little) demand for oil and the by-products.  Steven Van Metre has contacts in the field that are feeding him information on what’s really going on.

While some of the minions that watch his updates complain about the colors of his moving averages, we’re more interested in the anecdotal data such as ‘oil inventories are piling up’.

Even better was the comment (a few weeks back) that EIA data is not telling the whole story.  There’s even more oil than what’s in the report.

That’s our backdrop for shorting the XOP by using DUG.  Not advice, not a recommendation.

Recall that DUG, with regards to the firm’s broker, has stated “not marginable” indicating especially high volatility.

Open positions are below:

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Real Estate, Ready?

The real estate index IYR has been struggleing at resistance for months.  Yesterday’s action was a swift break lower to the bottom of the range.

Inverse fund DRV (3X inverse IYR) had is largest single day gain since mid-May of last year.

The weekly chart shows the four-month struggle at resistance as well as MACD bearish divergence.

IYR may attempt to test slightly higher (DRV down) during this session.

If so, we’ll be looking to position short via DRV; not advice not a recommendation.

Moving on to biotech.  Yesterday’s action was a good example of negative bias in LABD.  Even though IBB closed lower, LABD closed lower as well.

The LABD position was closed out as shown (above) and the BIS positions maintained.

Note the R-Exit value.

This represents the gain on the amount risked. If $1,000 was risked on the trade, it returned $8,540.

Update will be forthcoming if/when a DRV position is established.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dow, S&P, Outside Down

So, this is it?

As this juncture (11:06 a.m. EST), both the Dow and S&P have key reversals; and now the QQQs, and Russell 2000, have just joined them.

If they hold and decline from here, reversing from all time highs, we can add that data to our empirical “Holiday Turns

Holiday turns … markets tend to reverse just before, during, or just after a holiday week.

In the biotech arena, this morning’s gap higher (IBB) closed the distance from price action to the stop for inverse funds BIS and LABD.

That closure opportunity was used to increase the short position (via BIS) in one of the managed accounts.  Not advice, not a recommendation.

The IBB bearish divergence is beginning to take shape.

Positions:

Note: “Close” prices as of 11:03 a.m. EST

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Corn Goes Vertical

Ever since the inland hurricane, the ‘Derecho’ of August 10th, it’s never been the same for corn. Now, it’s going vertical.

The entire U.S. agricultural food supply infrastructure is being systematically dismantled.  Control the food, control the population. Simple.

It seems the ‘preppers’ tend to focus on stockpiling silver and gold.

If your’re getting ready for what’s coming, from a historical perspective, that’s not the place to start.

Going way back …. thousands of years, during the famine in Egypt of Joseph’s time, we have this:

“And Joseph gathered corn as the sand of the sea, very much, until he left numbering; for it was without number”

“And the famine was over all the face of the Earth: and Joseph opened all the storehouses and sold unto the Egyptians: and the famine waxed sore in the land of Egypt.”

“And all countries came unto Joseph for to buy corn; because that the famine was so sore in all lands.”

Gen 41:  Vs.  49, 56, 57, KJV

They paid for the corn first, with gold and silver.  Then they paid with their livestock.  Then they paid by selling themselves into life-long slavery. We can equate that last part (slavery) as getting the vax.

As corn is going vertical, the bond market is signaling its move as well.

Just now, today, TLT is rotating higher.

Yesterday, Steven Van Metre showed a chart (time stamp 10:00) of the speculators beginning to back off their historic short position.

They’ve figured out they’re trapped. Now, they’re trying to sneak out the door without being completely impaled on a sharp bond spike.

The S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, all appear to be holding near their highs.

Biotech (IBB), as reported yesterday, is different.

Something major is brewing below the surface with the biotech deception.  Price action itself is showing it’s the place to be for the short-side.

Further info on biotech’s downside is here and here.

Positions remain unchanged (as of 3:02 p.m. EST).  Stops have been moved; not advice, not a recommendation.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Class Action

Markets press on, new highs. However, biotech (IBB) is losing luster.

It could be just a temporary blip on the road upward.

Or, there could be something else afoot not known to the general public … and possibly not even known to professional speculators and market traders.

The video link below is to an alternate (independent) platform. One among many popping up in response to ‘adjustments’ being made by YouTube.

The video at this link is nearly an hour long.  It’s one of those things that upon viewing the entire presentation, one can never be the same.

 Viewer beware.  For those with short attentions, fast forward to Time Stamp 22:50, for the meat.

Wyckoff stated a century ago ‘the reason for a move is always revealed after the fact’; we might find if IBB reverses from here and does not look back, the link above may ultimately become the ‘reason’ for such a move.

Imagine if this presentation becomes widespread knowledge … where will biotech be then?

Of course, price action is always the final arbiter.  Positions (and stops) remain unchanged.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.