New Target(s)
Even as yesterday’s update was being released, SPOT price action started negating the analysis.
So, let’s take another look to see if opportunity lies ahead.
Before getting started, note auto parts (AZO, ORLY) are down hard in today’s session; the potential for which, indicated just two days prior.
Spotify SPOT, Daily
A push above the 603 – 604, puts SPOT in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ condition while at the same time, being at the 23.6% retrace level.
When looking at the long-term quarterly chart (not shown), there’s significant resistance at the 615.6 area (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The Danger Point® 
I was listening to Lance this morning and he says silver is 4.5 standard deviations overbought and will crash someday. Maybe we should focus our attention there.
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Thank you for the suggestion. I appreciate the input.
It might seem like this should be easy to answer but it gets to the core of the strategy being worked.
Admittedly, over four standard deviations is literally off the chart. However, just a few years ago if I remember right, the bond market went something like six standard deviations (down) and then just kept on declining. The worst bond bear market in forty years.
So, silver could continue to grind higher or go sideways or any number of things.
Having traded the futures back in the day, 2011, it’s a very thin market and likes to spike (a lot). If it does ‘blow-off’, it will (or should) be obvious, so there’s a potential of looking at it at that time.
Getting back to the strategy, there are situations at this point, that are essentially a given.
I have purposely held off discussing ‘uncomfortable’ topics.
For instance, I’ve been sitting on an Ed Dowd interview from a few weeks ago, where he gets very specific about the realities; the number of (excess) deaths and disabilities over the past five years as an example. He also discusses the effect of stopping the flood of illegals and maps it to the Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcies.
That type of fact has to connect into outfits like Carvana and probably a lot of others. Whenever CVNA decides ‘it’s over’, the resulting down move could be like nothing we’ve ever seen.
So, part of the focus is on anything ‘discretionary’ like Spotify, Netflix, and cars and auto parts, and also anything health related like the drug sector, biotech, healthcare and life insurance.
These are all very boring sectors without a lot of attention (not like A.I., anyway).
With that said, the boring auto parts sector ORLY and AZO, just imploded (big time) and for me, that’s what I’m looking for.
Today’s update (about to be released) will be on biotech, where we may have reached a peak (and potential reversal).
With all of that said, it’s probably a good idea to look at silver (SLV) and see if there are any Fibonacci correlations.
When the margin calls hit in force, the most liquid gets sold off first, like gold and silver.
So, an ‘unexplained’ move in silver could be letting us know that ‘someone’ had to sell. Just like someone knew that CVNA, would be added to the S&P because it posted nine straight higher closes (letting us know something’s up), now going on eleven and counting.
Thanks again for the comment.
Regards,
Paul
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