Category Archives: Up-Thrust

CarMax Upside Breakout

August 21, 2026 By in CVNA, CVNA-26-04, KMX, Transportation, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Carvana As Well?

If CarMax continues higher from here, it has a measured move target as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

That implies Carvana may come along as well.

With that said, even though CVNA closed lower for the day, the session opened higher than yesterday’s close.

‘The higher open was not expected which now, ever so slightly, points bias to the upside.

CVNA was ‘short-traded’ throughout the day and CVNA-26-04, was closed-out with a slight profit.

Caveat Emptor

The breakout in KMX is not all that convincing.

If it falls back into the range, it’s likely an up-thrust (reversal).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Step-by-Step

August 20, 2026 By in Wyckoff, CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Transportation, CVNA-26-04 Leave a comment

The (short) Path

With today’s new daily high, Carvana’s following a Fibonacci sequence, thus far.

Referencing the chart below, we have:

Day 1: Wyckoff up-thrust, penetrating resistance (blue line).

Day 3: Lows, increased volume; ‘sign-of-supply’.

Day 5: Recovery high, testing the underside.

It’s at this point, anything can happen.

For most of today’s session, CVNA remained below the highs, giving doubt to the prior analysis.

It wasn’t until the last ten-minutes of trade, did price action move above yesterday’s high of 71.18.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

As CVNA pushed above that high, a short was opened: CVNA-26-04, with the stop just above today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

If Carvana manages to push higher, the scenario discussed yesterday, the next resistance level may be more probable.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Tomorrow?

August 19, 2026 By in CVNA, Interest Rates, Ox Talks, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Fibonacci, Day 5

Tomorrow is Fibonacci Day 5 for Carvana from the most recent up-thrust high.

The low (yesterday), was Fibonacci Day 3.

With that, we have two schools of thought.

Lower interest rates may (help) boost CVNA to the upper resistance boundary (dashed blue line), penetrating, creating a larger up-thrust condition.

Or tomorrow, is the test of the breakdown (then lower).

If that’s the case, it does not matter how low rates go, the economy is in a swan dive (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Downside Reversal?

August 16, 2026 By in Biotech, IBB, Wyckoff, The Speck, Speck-Effect, Up-Thrust, Karen Kingston, IBB-26-02 Leave a comment

Alignment of Forces

The last two updates, here and here, presented the case, forces are lining up; probability’s increasing for a downside reversal.

This update will complete the session (so far) on that potential.

Let’s not forget, behind-the-scenes (for years) stories like this and this continue to bubble to the surface.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

Last week’s trading range was significantly more narrow (with volume higher) than the week prior.

The chart shows IBB finished at or near the top of the wedge boundary and in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ position.

The ‘more’ promised at the end of yesterday’s update; Friday’s daily volume contracted on the test.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

KKR … Reversal

August 9, 2026 By in S&P 500, S&P, Dow 30, DIA, SPY, SOXX, QQQ, Nasdaq, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, KKR

Ruh, Roh Moment

While the Dow, S&P, Qs and the SOXX all seem ready to continue higher, KKR, is absent from the party.

There’s an up-thrust reversal from resistance, then decline to minor support (dashed grey line).

Volume is increasing as price action nears that level.

The suggestion then, is the support will fail (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mass Screaming Hysteria

August 4, 2026 By in Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

FOMO

According to the finical press, it was mass screaming hysteria as stocks ‘short squeezed’ to all-time highs, link here.

However, one sector noticeably absent from the crazed party, were the semiconductors.

In fact, during the past month or so, the SOXX has gone from market leader to laggard (not advice, not a recommendation).

As we’ll see below, there’s also an interesting pattern; an a-b-c correction to a minor up-thrust.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note the inflection points at Days 1 and 3, with today, a potential inflection, at Day 5.

This price action is typical of a move to higher levels, potentially the top of the range and farther.

However, if the SOXX stalls at this point and reverses, it indicates severe weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … ‘Throw-Over’

July 20, 2026 By in Real Estate, Up-Thrust, VNQ, VNQ-26-03

Back In The Range

Real estate VNQ, is at The Danger Point®, posting simultaneous events.

The chart shows a wedge ‘throw-over’ as well as potential ‘up-thrust’ reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate VNQ, Daily

Price action attempted to break out of the wedge, and above resistance, at the same time.

We’re at the spot where the risk (cost) of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Home Depot Reversal

July 15, 2026 By in HD, HD-26-01, Real Estate, Up-Thrust

Fibonacci Time Sequence

Home Depot posted its all-time highs years ago, back in 2024.

Since then, it’s been a series of trading ranges with nearly each one, resolving lower.

So, we have an overall downtrend.

The last update, here, presented a potential trading channel, and price action scenario needed to confirm:

“If HD, moves higher, then the set-up is (potentially) invalid. Lower, and we could be in the trading channel”

It turns out, price action did both; it opened higher, then finished outside-down, lower for the day.

The set-up was morphing into something else.

So, the trading action was to stand aside (not advice not a recommendation).

That ‘something else’, may have been today’s (potential) reversal.

Home Depot, HD, Daily

A Fibonacci sequence appears to be in-effect with pivot points, at Fibonacci intervals (so far).

It might not look like much, and if tomorrow’s high exceeds today, it won’t be. 🙂

However, the last up-thrust reversal (middle of the chart), initiated a decline covering around 60-points (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Entegris … Down, – 11.22%

July 5, 2026 By in APH, ENTG, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Ease of Movement

Semiconductors weren’t the only ones hit hard last Thursday; suppliers were as well.

The table at left, shows the top eight. All, deeply in the red as of the last close.

For today’s discussion, we’re looking at Entegris, ENTG.

The last update was here.

Since then, ENTG has posted a false breakout, or a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Entegris ENTG, Daily

As in the case of Amphenol, yesterday, there’s a well-defined risk level, if short; Thursday’s high at 166.76 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Amphenol … At-The-Edge

July 4, 2026 By in APH, APH-26-02, Artificial Intelligence, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Extremes

It’s not often there’s such a well defined risk on any trade, long, or short.

In the case of Amphenol, all-time highs, followed by a reversal and close below resistance.

That’s the definition of a Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’.

Such a set-up does not guarantee anything.

We’re interested in minimizing the risk as much as possible.

In the case above, if short, a good point for exit on a failed position would be last Thursday’s high at 173.00 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279