Category Archives: Wyckoff

Regional Banks … Breakdown

May 14, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Banking, KRE, KRE-26-01, Ox Talks, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff Leave a comment

End of The Test?

All eyes seem to be on reports like this, as if it’s a good thing while the nerdy kid in the back, is frantically waving, trying to get everyone’s attention.

All you need to know, link above, is in the first 55-seconds.

‘There’s never been a run like this’

It’s ok, this rally has legs because we’re believing the misconception, earnings move prices … so, all is well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, Back at The Bank

‘Ox Talks‘ has been relentlessly covering the truth; that truth is, the A.I. (and credit) narrative is imploding in real time (not advice, not a recommendation).

Which brings us to the banks.

The chart of Regional Banking ETF, KRE, shows what might be happening.

S&P Regional Banking ETF, KRE, Weekly

The Interpretation:

Wyckoff up-thrust in February, followed by ‘sign of supply’ in March, then up for a test.

We’re on a weekly timeframe; whatever happens has the potential for some duration.

With the breakdown, the test appears to be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Change of Character

May 12, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Like a Chameleon

Several days ago, a Wyckoff characteristic was identified, ‘shortening of the thrust’, indicating the potential end of a move, link here.

Now, we have a ‘change of character’, another reversal potential.

As a reminder, we’re dealing with probabilities; each nuance adding to the next. This is not a forecast.

Semiconductors SOXX, 4-Hour

The chart shows a series of upward thrusts, identified by Elder’s Force Index (blue arrows), with a corresponding market move, the black arrows.

Question:

Before rushing to the answer below, what’s different about the last blue/black arrow pair on the far-right side?

Answer:

On every single arrow pair except the far right, price action ends higher than the previous 4-Hour bar.

Check with your own chart package to see if this isn’t true.

On the last arrow pair, the close of the 4-Hour bar is below the previous 4-Hour high.

The SOXX has changed character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, Net (up) Slows

May 9, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff 4 Comments

Wyckoff Concept

A Wyckoff tenet concerning directional moves, is ‘shortening of the thrust’.

As a move nears its end, net upward progress between thrusts, shortens.

On a closing basis, we see the SOXX launching ever higher but net progress after pullbacks, is getting shorter (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

eBay’s ‘Island Gap’

May 5, 2026 By in EBAY, EBAY-26-02, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff Leave a comment

From, All-Time Highs

If it holds, it’s an island gap-down from all-time highs.

The repeating spring to up-thrust set-up, is also shown.

We’re still in a terminating, rising wedge, at the extremes.

We’re also at The Danger Point®, where the risk on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … at the Trend Line

April 1, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Another Reversal?

Nvidia penetrated support and rebounded.

Now, it’s near a contact point on a downtrend line, that’s also part of a trading channel.

Behavior of the market as it pushed above resistance (up-thrust), then below support (spring) is clearly demonstrated.

This is what markets do, have done, for over a century.

As far back as 1902, in Wyckoff’s autobiography, he figured out that such movements have ‘nothing to do with valuations’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Breakaway … SOXX

March 21, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, Nasdaq, NVDA, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-26-04, YouTube Black Swan 2 Comments

Some Gaps, Never Filled

The day after the SOXX, topped on February 25th, was, this update.

In the case of Nvidia, it never printed or closed above the high reached on that day.

Well, the SOXX never made it back either.

Then, March 3rd, we have what looks like a ‘breakaway’ gap.

There’ve been at least two attempts to close that gap.

One of those attempts, a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up, which may have failed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Other markets have rolled over as well; the Dow, S&P, the Qs, Biotech and so on (not advice, not a recommendation).

This just out, shows the typical response to an oil price shock, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike at Resistance

March 5, 2026 By in CRWD, Software, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 2 Comments

They Sell … Wall Street Buys

The earnings release tells an interesting story, link here.

After all’s said-and-done, CRWD still has a negative P/E.

Analysists are optimistic, while the insiders sell millions-worth (not advice, not a recommendation).

A push above resistance (blue line), puts CRWD in Wyckoff Up-Thrust position.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Spotify … Short Targets

February 10, 2026 By in Retail Investor, SPOT, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Dip, or Squeeze?

Spotify’s earnings release, coincided with a (supposedly) massive ‘retail’ buying spree, link here.

The article says it’s retail causing the launch; comment’s section, says otherwise.

From a Wyckoff analysis perspective, it doesn’t matter who’s doing the buying or why.

What matters, is what the market is saying about itself.

Spotify SPOT, Daily

As this link says, there’s not much sold short … less than 3% of float.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

DoorDash, Rally into Earnings?

February 7, 2026 By in AMZN, BALL, CPAY, DASH, DASH-26-01, DVA, ORLY, Wyckoff

‘Spring’ Position

DoorDash, has been traded once to the short side this year: DASH-26-01.

That trade was closed out (covered) on January 12th, profit of 7.58%.

Note, from the link above, after January 7th, and the ‘test’, price action began an immediate decline, to now.

An error on the trade, was not maintaining the position, and closing out this past Friday 🙂

At this point, we’ve penetrated support, now in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

Spring position does not guarantee a rally. It just means the market may attempt to move higher and take out any shorts late to the party (not advice, not a recommendation).

DoorDash DASH, Daily

Earnings release, February 18th, after the close.

As we’ve seen with the Amazon and O’Reilly collapse, Ball Corp., CorPay Inc., DaVita HealthCare launch (and others), response to earnings are all over the map.

There’s no telling what’s going to happen with earnings and DASH (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, CrowdStrike, Cadence

January 31, 2026 By in CDNS, CRWD, CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Earnings, late February, early March

Earning release for CVNA, CRWD, and CDNS, are scheduled here, here and here.

All three charts are in the same, or similar position.

Q: Anyone know?

A: Recently penetrated support or are testing that penetration.

Technically speaking, they’re all in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Chart analysis to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279