Category Archives: Wyckoff

Nvidia … Narrows The Gap

July 14, 2026 By in Federal Reserve, NVDA, SOXX, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Is Tomorrow, The Day?

We have all kinds of Fed related kabuki on tap for tomorrow, link here.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, whatever the Fed says, the beige book or any other ancillary information, is of no-matter to what the market’s actually saying about itself.

In the case of Nvidia and by correlation, the SOXX, gap distance discussed yesterday, is being narrowed.

Nvidia, NVDA, Daily

With the caveat, in the markets, anything can happen, nonetheless we see if NVDA gets to the target level to close the gap, that level is also a 61.8%, Fibonacci retrace (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Entegris … Down, – 11.22%

July 5, 2026 By in APH, ENTG, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Ease of Movement

Semiconductors weren’t the only ones hit hard last Thursday; suppliers were as well.

The table at left, shows the top eight. All, deeply in the red as of the last close.

For today’s discussion, we’re looking at Entegris, ENTG.

The last update was here.

Since then, ENTG has posted a false breakout, or a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Entegris ENTG, Daily

As in the case of Amphenol, yesterday, there’s a well-defined risk level, if short; Thursday’s high at 166.76 (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Amphenol … At-The-Edge

July 4, 2026 By in APH, APH-26-02, Artificial Intelligence, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Extremes

It’s not often there’s such a well defined risk on any trade, long, or short.

In the case of Amphenol, all-time highs, followed by a reversal and close below resistance.

That’s the definition of a Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’.

Such a set-up does not guarantee anything.

We’re interested in minimizing the risk as much as possible.

In the case above, if short, a good point for exit on a failed position would be last Thursday’s high at 173.00 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Semi’s to Rally?

June 26, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, BTU, ON, QCOM, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff

Next Leg Higher

As incredible as it may seem, looking the SOXX and Qualcomm in particular, a rally may be the next significant move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, some of the semi’s are completely imploding , like ON, today.

Making acquisitions at the top. You can’t make this stuff up. Didn’t Peabody Energy try that one … then, went bankrupt … almost twice. 🙂

Back to the chart.

Qualcomm QCOM, Daily

Volatility has exploded over the last several months. The range has ben compressed to show the action.

If the overall SOXX was going to collapse, today would have been a good day.

However, as we see with QCOM, it penetrated support and stopped dead; a Wyckoff spring set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds (TLT) Bullish Channel

June 21, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TLT, Wyckoff

As the press, gets bearish

At this point, bonds (TLT) remain in an upward channel (rates lower), just as the press begins talking about rising rates (not advice, not a recommendation).

In his writings, Wyckoff was blunt about following the financial news (emphasis added):

‘If you listen to the press, you will never be successful in the markets’

Shown on the chart is the ‘stick save’ post, here.

Since that reversal, we’ve had steady demand with minor (38% or less) pull-backs (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Test or Fail?

June 19, 2026 By in Gold & Silver, SLV, Wyckoff

Downside Pressure

The last update on silver SLV, presented a (potential) measured move target, link here.

At the end of that post, was this:

“However, we’re near support levels; penetrating those would technically put SLV in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That would imply some upside testing before continuing lower.”

So, here we are.

SLV penetrated support, then moved higher in a ‘spring’ attempt, and is now back to test support levels.

Silver SLV, Weekly

If price action manages to bounce higher from here, moving past the weekly high (64.69), then momentum has shifted to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s Measured Move

June 7, 2026 By in Gold & Silver, SLV, Wyckoff, 2007 - 2008 1 Comment

Same Target, Different Method

The last update on Silver (SLV) was back in April, link here.

This past week’s action had SLV, breaking down from a wedge, targeting a measured move (not advice, not a recommendation).

The April link above, contained the prior ’08 meltdown scenario as an example, targeting a 60% decline; 43 – 44 area (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, the wedge formation, targets ~46 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver ETF SLV, Weekly

We can see the breakout to the downside.

However, we’re near support levels; penetrating those would technically put SLV in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That would imply some upside testing before continuing lower (not advice not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … All-Time Highs

May 22, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-04, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

And Then?

For the past two weeks, the SOXX has been discussed within the context of ‘shortening of the thrust’.

That’s a Wyckoff adage:

‘When a move is nearing its end, the amount of net progress (between waves) will become shorter’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Even though the past four trading days have closed higher, SOXX net upward progress, is still getting shorter.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

Next update, we’ll move closer-in to the hourly.

That timeframe shows a clear ‘spring to up-thrust’ set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Regional Banks … Breakdown

May 14, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Banking, KRE, KRE-26-01, Ox Talks, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

End of The Test?

All eyes seem to be on reports like this, as if it’s a good thing while the nerdy kid in the back, is frantically waving, trying to get everyone’s attention.

All you need to know, link above, is in the first 55-seconds.

‘There’s never been a run like this’

It’s ok, this rally has legs because we’re believing the misconception, earnings move prices … so, all is well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, Back at The Bank

‘Ox Talks‘ has been relentlessly covering the truth; that truth is, the A.I. (and credit) narrative is imploding in real time (not advice, not a recommendation).

Which brings us to the banks.

The chart of Regional Banking ETF, KRE, shows what might be happening.

S&P Regional Banking ETF, KRE, Weekly

The Interpretation:

Wyckoff up-thrust in February, followed by ‘sign of supply’ in March, then up for a test.

We’re on a weekly timeframe; whatever happens has the potential for some duration.

With the breakdown, the test appears to be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Change of Character

May 12, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Like a Chameleon

Several days ago, a Wyckoff characteristic was identified, ‘shortening of the thrust’, indicating the potential end of a move, link here.

Now, we have a ‘change of character’, another reversal potential.

As a reminder, we’re dealing with probabilities; each nuance adding to the next. This is not a forecast.

Semiconductors SOXX, 4-Hour

The chart shows a series of upward thrusts, identified by Elder’s Force Index (blue arrows), with a corresponding market move, the black arrows.

Question:

Before rushing to the answer below, what’s different about the last blue/black arrow pair on the far-right side?

Answer:

On every single arrow pair except the far right, price action ends higher than the previous 4-Hour bar.

Check with your own chart package to see if this isn’t true.

On the last arrow pair, the close of the 4-Hour bar is below the previous 4-Hour high.

The SOXX has changed character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279