Category Archives: Wyckoff

Carvana … Step-by-Step

August 20, 2026 By in CVNA, CVNA-26-04, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Transportation, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The (short) Path

With today’s new daily high, Carvana’s following a Fibonacci sequence, thus far.

Referencing the chart below, we have:

Day 1: Wyckoff up-thrust, penetrating resistance (blue line).

Day 3: Lows, increased volume; ‘sign-of-supply’.

Day 5: Recovery high, testing the underside.

It’s at this point, anything can happen.

For most of today’s session, CVNA remained below the highs, giving doubt to the prior analysis.

It wasn’t until the last ten-minutes of trade, did price action move above yesterday’s high of 71.18.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

As CVNA pushed above that high, a short was opened: CVNA-26-04, with the stop just above today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

If Carvana manages to push higher, the scenario discussed yesterday, the next resistance level may be more probable.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Downside Reversal?

August 16, 2026 By in Biotech, IBB, IBB-26-02, Karen Kingston, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Alignment of Forces

The last two updates, here and here, presented the case, forces are lining up; probability’s increasing for a downside reversal.

This update will complete the session (so far) on that potential.

Let’s not forget, behind-the-scenes (for years) stories like this and this continue to bubble to the surface.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

Last week’s trading range was significantly more narrow (with volume higher) than the week prior.

The chart shows IBB finished at or near the top of the wedge boundary and in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ position.

The ‘more’ promised at the end of yesterday’s update; Friday’s daily volume contracted on the test.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AutoZone Rally … In Progress

August 8, 2026 By in 1987, AZO, Wyckoff

Trading Channel, Trend Line

Two weeks ago, was this update:

“Price action’s been hitting and bouncing off support for nearly two months; finally, penetrating and closing below that line, last Thursday.”

With that said, we had the definition of a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

So, what’s happened since then?

AutoZone AZO, Daily

At this point, the rally’s in-progress (not advice, not a recommendation).

If AZO continues higher from here and maintains the right side trendline, we get to ‘gap closure’ somewhere around August 25th.

For the histrions amongst us, August 25th, was the market high in 1987.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Another Channel … Cadence

July 29, 2026 By in CDNS, Software, Wyckoff

Long Term Top?

At this juncture, CDNS, is posting within a downward trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Near the end of the session, price action penetrated the prior session low.

So, we should all know what that means. 🙂

If CDNS is going to stay within the channel (a big ‘if’), tomorrow might see an upward attempt in a Wyckoff ‘spring’, before ultimately returning back to the lows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CORN … Target & Reversal

July 26, 2026 By in Corn, Teucrium, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

Just over two-years ago, was this post, targeting CORN to bottom-out around the 16-level:

“However, shown on the chart is a potential low at the Fibonacci 76.4%, retrace.”

On June 30th, CORN hit an intraday low of 16.36, before reversing sharply to the upside.

Teucrium CORN, Weekly

As the chart shows, we’re in an apparent Wyckoff ‘spring’ condition; price action rising sharply after penetrating support (not advice, not a recommendation).

What we don’t have, is the ‘test’; there’s no way to say if there will be one.

However, the chart shows this coming week, is Fibonacci Week-5, from the lows.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Semis … Set The Stage

July 24, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

This, Is The Spot

Well, ladies and gentlemen, we’re at the spot where any move, in any direction, may set the stage for what’s to come.

Last Friday, the SOXX penetrated support, then rebounded in the initial stages of a Wyckoff spring.

Today, price action came back to test.

This type of behavior is bullish, suggesting a move higher; however, there’s a problem.

Instead of volume contracting on the test (sellers backing away), it has increased (blue arrow).

For the test to indicate probability of complete, Monday’s open needs to be higher, with a new daily high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Narrows The Gap

July 14, 2026 By in Federal Reserve, NVDA, SOXX, Wyckoff

Is Tomorrow, The Day?

We have all kinds of Fed related kabuki on tap for tomorrow, link here.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, whatever the Fed says, the beige book or any other ancillary information, is of no-matter to what the market’s actually saying about itself.

In the case of Nvidia and by correlation, the SOXX, gap distance discussed yesterday, is being narrowed.

Nvidia, NVDA, Daily

With the caveat, in the markets, anything can happen, nonetheless we see if NVDA gets to the target level to close the gap, that level is also a 61.8%, Fibonacci retrace (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Entegris … Down, – 11.22%

July 5, 2026 By in APH, ENTG, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Ease of Movement

Semiconductors weren’t the only ones hit hard last Thursday; suppliers were as well.

The table at left, shows the top eight. All, deeply in the red as of the last close.

For today’s discussion, we’re looking at Entegris, ENTG.

The last update was here.

Since then, ENTG has posted a false breakout, or a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Entegris ENTG, Daily

As in the case of Amphenol, yesterday, there’s a well-defined risk level, if short; Thursday’s high at 166.76 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Amphenol … At-The-Edge

July 4, 2026 By in APH, APH-26-02, Artificial Intelligence, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Extremes

It’s not often there’s such a well defined risk on any trade, long, or short.

In the case of Amphenol, all-time highs, followed by a reversal and close below resistance.

That’s the definition of a Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’.

Such a set-up does not guarantee anything.

We’re interested in minimizing the risk as much as possible.

In the case above, if short, a good point for exit on a failed position would be last Thursday’s high at 173.00 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Semi’s to Rally?

June 26, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, BTU, ON, QCOM, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff

Next Leg Higher

As incredible as it may seem, looking the SOXX and Qualcomm in particular, a rally may be the next significant move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, some of the semi’s are completely imploding , like ON, today.

Making acquisitions at the top. You can’t make this stuff up. Didn’t Peabody Energy try that one … then, went bankrupt … almost twice. 🙂

Back to the chart.

Qualcomm QCOM, Daily

Volatility has exploded over the last several months. The range has ben compressed to show the action.

If the overall SOXX was going to collapse, today would have been a good day.

However, as we see with QCOM, it penetrated support and stopped dead; a Wyckoff spring set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279