Category Archives: Hindenburg

Carvana … ‘Day 89’

June 26, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-06, Hindenburg, Positions

Reversal & Channel

Using the ‘Way Back Machine’, and this post, we see Fibonacci time correlation with respect to the February 19th, high.

As noted, ‘Day 89’, was shown as June 26th, which is today.

From the chart, it appears CVNA, reversed yesterday, and today, has potentially verified a trading channel.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The channel lines shown, are exactly parallel and declining @ 99.9%, annualized.

As of this post, price action has penetrated minor support in the 308.70-area, so there’s a potential for an attempt to rally into the close.

While there could be a rally to post new (daily) highs, the fundamental backdrop, link here, favors the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Currently short as CVNA-25-06, with stop at the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Hits The Wall

May 21, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, CVNA-25-02, CVNA-25-03, Hindenburg, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

New Daily Low

Carvana’s down – 2.53%, at 10:21 a.m., EST.

The new daily low confirms we have some kind of top; maybe the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s also been a trendline break. A trend in-effect, for over a month.

Lastly, as we’ll see below, CVNA, has been in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ position for the past five trading days.

Not only that, but we also have a repeating set-up, seen many times in the markets, detailed here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Let’s not forget the ‘unique’ fundamentals, link here.

Positioning

Those on this site for the past two weeks, have seen (in real time) several attempts to position short (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last trade, CVNA-25-02, was stopped out early Monday, at 304.52.

Reviewing the price action, CVNA had posted a minor spring-to-up-thrust.

The prior session’s low and high were penetrated.

Once that was observed, no hesitation; re-position short (CVNA-25-03) with new stop at that day’s high 306.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s where we are now.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Whacked, Punch Drunk

March 2, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg

Reeling From The Hit

February 19th, after hours action, Carvana posted 310 as the high; then, three days later, the lows at 207.85:

That’s a direct hit of -33%

Then, incredibly, short interest does not increase but decreases (from just over 10%) to 7.8%; you can’t make this up.

Emotionally Exhausted:

If you’d been short this (vending machine) ‘disruptor’ for nigh on two years, as it rachets ever higher, and then it finally, breaks down … what would you do?

You’d probably be emotionally (maybe financially) exhausted, tired of watching the never-ending grind higher and cover (whatever’s left of) your shorts.

Wheels Off

As Hindenburg reports, Carvana has some interesting ‘fundamentals’.

With that, let’s look at the most likely area for a possible punch-drunk recovery top, and reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The price bar with the heaviest volume was the day after the earnings release as shown.

That bar’s close is right around the 50% retrace.

However, if we extend the top of the retrace tool to start at the after-hours 310, mark (and not regular session high of 292.84), the 50% retrace now becomes the 38.2%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana ‘Targets’

February 15, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg 1 Comment

‘Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?’

We’re just two trading days away from Carvana’s earnings release (link here).

Is that when the plug is pulled?

The ‘fundamentals‘ of this entity are interesting to say the least.

Shorts Grinding Down

Short interest has finally broken below the 10% area; now at 8.5%, link here.

Is the final squeeze coming?

Carvana CVNA, Monthly

In this post, the idea was advanced, CVNA might move higher into the earnings release; maybe even make a new all-time-high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Using the monthly scale, a Fibonacci projection has been overlaid on the chart.

The black dashed line is the 1,794.4%, projection off the first wave upside (and test) from the December 2022, lows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything can happen.

Earnings release and conference call are scheduled for after-hours, on Wednesday.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … New, All-Time-Highs ?

January 30, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg Tags: , , , ,

The ‘Measured Move’

According to this link, the wheels have already come off.

However, as we’ve seen time and again, ‘financials’ have nothing to do with prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s all about manipulation and what the manipulators are trying to achieve.

At this point, Carvana refuses to go lower. That’s a fact.

So, if it’s not going lower, just what is happening?

A better way to ask the question:

‘What’s it going to take to trap unsuspecting ‘investors’ and extract the largest amount of funds from them in the shortest possible time?

How about new all-time highs on an earnings release (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

The all-time-high for Carvana, is 376.83, posted during the week of August 13, 2021 (source TC2000).

Next earnings is on February 19, link here.

Let’s see what happens next

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Carvana ‘Confluence’

January 20, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg, KMX

Tale of Two Fibonacci’s

This update said to watch for a CVNA retrace to levels between 227 – 233.

Last Thrudsay’s action reached and slightly exceeded the target(s).

With all of that, we now have Carvana at a confluence of Fibonacci levels.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Note the corrective ‘a-b-c’ move to a Fibonacci 161.8%, projection.

That same corrective move is near the Fibonacci 61.8% retrace from the (recovery) high of 268.34, to the recent low 175.42, of January 3rd.

There’s so much ‘drama’ surrounding this equity that literally anything can happen.

Short interest (BigCharts) remains in the 10%, range; not moving appreciably in either direction for some time.

If the Hindenburg report is accurate, CVNA could vaporize at any time (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, that may not be the best use of CVNA’s (potential) woes.

Maybe a better opportunity is to think about what’s going to happen to all that inventory if things really go south.

How will that affect other competitors like CarMax?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … What’s Next?

January 9, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg 1 Comment

Circus About To Start

For the longest time we’ve heard from various sources, polite ‘head scratching’, on Carvana’s ‘numbers’.

Now, it looks like the wheels are coming off and the circus is about to start (not advice, not a recommendation).

This Hindenburg Research reads like we’ve seen (a hint of) that before, here, here, and here.

However, scrolling through Hindenburg’s report, their ‘list’ is nothing short (no pun intended) of incredible.

Go-Forward Model

Years ago, during an episode of Wall Street Week, with Louis Rukeyser, one of his guests discussed a bad earnings release from a major firm.

Louis asked him (to the effect) if he thought the worst of the earnings were over?

His response was:

‘I believe in the cockroach theory. Where there’s one, there’s more’

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279