Uncovering More Evidence

The case continues to build for significant downside in the Emerging Markets, EEM.

This post addressed the shallow 23.6%, Fibonacci retrace; what appears to be completion of short covering.

‘Short covering’ because we’re coming from the view it’s a bear market. A potential slow-motion, train-wreck collapse.

Looking at the chart of EEM, in a different light, the Weekly Close, yet another piece of (reversal) evidence is uncovered.

Weekly Close, EEM

The unmarked chart is below.

For long time users of this site, you already know the drill. Do you ‘see’ the (short) opportunity, the evidence?

Yes, price action’s been in a downtrend for a while and rebounded but there’s more.

The next chart makes it obvious. Long term down-trend support has been broken … and now tested.

Digging deeper with the next chart; to find similar up-side volume, we have to go all the way back to the week of November 30th, 2018.

So, last week’s volume is significant.

However, that volume and price action was only able to get back to the underside of the trend … now turned resistance.

We can include all of the above analysis with previous work.

That work is linked here, here, here and here; adding up to a high probability downside event.

But wait, there’s more.

Digging Up A YouTube, Nugget

Searching YouTube for Emerging Markets, turns up essentially nothing. No surprise, there.

That is, except for this nugget.

The analysis used in the video is different from what’s on this site … and that’s ok.

The probability conclusion is the same, i.e., EEM down.

The takeaway from the video, is the timeframe. If the cycles in the analysis are in-effect (time stamp 8:04), then EEM potentially bottoms-out, in late June or early July.

Summary

The initial short trade via EDZ (EDZ-22-01) was exited, with profit on March 16th.

Another attempt made, on the 17th – 18th (EDZ-22-02) but exited on the 18th, with a moderate loss (-6.5%).

From the 22nd – 24th, another position was opened.

EDZ-22-03, currently in the green at +1.9%.

Stop is set at EDZ: 10.55 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Parting Shot

A quick check of ZeroHedge, has the usual suspects out fomenting falsehoods; attempting induce more fear and misdirection of the masses.

Just as Charles Mackay said back in 1841:

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”

By the time this (delusional) crowd recovers their senses, the obvious market opportunities will be long gone.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279