Real Estate … Ready for Reversal

Unrelenting, Down Data

‘The economy has already collapsed’.

That’s from Jerimiah Babe and is likely, correct.

Recent data-points supporting the case for ‘collapse already in progress’, are below:

American’s spending drops … again.

Pending homes sales worst annual decline … ever.

There are nine other supplemental data points for the economic mayhem, collapse, collapse-in-progress scenario; they are listed at the end of this post.

For now, we’re talking about real estate and specifically the proxy for the sector, IYR.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

As stated in the last post, we’re going to follow-up with a potential IYR, downside reversal by covering three more technical points; Fibonacci time correlation, thrust energy and trading channel.

First up: Last week completed a Fibonacci 34 (-1 week) time frame that may result in a reversal into a trading channel (shown on second chart).

Upward force (Thrust Index) declined significantly over the prior upward push during the week of 1/13/23.

The weekly chart has been compressed and trading channel lines added.

Internal trendlines are printed as grey dashed lines.

As shown, we’re at ‘Week 34 (-1)’.

If this market’s in reversal and adhering to a Fibonacci time sequence, we could see an immediate reversal or another minor high next week to make it an even 34 or go one additional week to make it 34 (+1) weeks.

Either way, we’re at The Danger Point®

The 1929 – 1932 Trading Channel(s)

Here’s a bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else.

Research and data gathered by my firm, has shown markets tend to reverse just before, during, or just after a Holiday Week.

In our case below, The 1929, all time high was 379.61, posted on September 4th; the Tuesday following the Labor Day Weekend.

The final low and subsequent reversal was 41.81, posted on July7th 1932; the Thursday following the July 4th Holiday:

Enough Said.

Chart provided by macrotrends @

There are at least three main trading channels in effect for the entire (nearly) three year down move.

Trading channels are an old and repeating characteristic of the markets.

Real Estate Re-Cap

The all-time high in real estate IYR, was 116.89, posted on December 31, 2021, the Friday before the New Year’s Weekend.

Since then, there have been several trading channels in effect; at this juncture, we may have yet another.

With the data links provided at the beginning and the links at the end of this post, sustained price action to the downside is more probable (not advice, not a recommendation).

This coming week is likely to be quite interesting as the Fed continues on its path of price and demand destruction.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


Congratulations on reading this far. You must be serious about your work. Supporting data for the bearish case is below.

Housing data stabbed in the heart.

Blackstone redemption limits

Population set to collapse or is already collapsing.

Real estate fire sales … just the tip?

Home sales biggest annual drop.

New ‘protections‘ affecting the market?

Copper prices at record highs.

Pilots with bad hearts? No problem.

Where did all the workers go?

Real Estate’s Potemkin Village

The ‘Pain Trade’ = Opportunity

‘Some of the best market traders are former Marines.’, Prechter

That’s a paraphrased quote from Robert Prechter Jr., given during an interview in the early 1990s.

The inference: Marines succeed at trading because they have been conditioned to endure and perform while being in pain … physical and mental.

On the other hand, the financial press, being ever so helpful during this unprecedented collapse, is all too happy to help analyze the situation by catastrophizing on how ‘painful’ the market feels.

We’re going to be ‘bathing in lava‘, according to them.

If we go to Jerimiah Babe at time stamp 1:36, the mainstream press is still touting ‘The consumer is strong’.

In other videos, Babe, has shown how devastated the real estate market really is … ‘boots on the ground’ reports at vacant malls, empty parking lots and new (unoccupied) housing developments that stretch for miles.

With that backdrop, let’s look at what the price action of real estate is telling us … is the consumer strong?

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

There are so many things happening in IYR, it will probably take several updates.

At this point, price action exhibits the following:

Currently in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ condition, potential reversal

On a close basis, IYR has retraced 38.2% of its entire move.

Repeating trend line(s) underside test.

Trading channel that’s a Fibonacci 34 (-1) weeks wide.

For the week just ended, Force Index is divergent (54.7%, weaker) than the last push higher.

We’ll look at the first three of those, below.

As the market came to a close on Friday, price action pushed through established resistance (and axis line) to end the week higher.

Price action’s in Up-Thrust condition, The Danger Point®

Next, we have on a close basis, a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace as well as testing the underside of a resistance/trend-line.

In the next update, we’ll discuss the possible trading channel and the pressures (Force Index) behind the last move higher.

There Will Be Great ‘Wringing Of Hands’

As always, anything can happen in the markets. The above is not advice or a recommendation.

Next week, we can expect the Usual Suspects to come out and provide their ‘expert analysis’ on what the Fed is likely to do or not.

The Fed on the other hand, has repeatedly said what’s it’s going to do; that is, raise rates.

Interest rate sensitive real estate already appears ready for reversal.

Let’s see what happens. next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil … Gas … Gold & Newmont

Markets, At Critical Juncture

Nemont Mining (NEM), Gold, and the Oil & Gas Sector are at a critical juncture.

The rest of the major indices, Dow, S&P, QQQs, real estate (IYR), and so on, are in a similar position.

For this update, we’ll focus on Newmont (NEM), as it’s the largest cap in the Senior Mining Sector GDX, and a general representative of the commodities markets.

Financial collapse is a process, not an event.

Newmont topped-out in April, of last year. Exxon, the proxy for the Oil & Gas sector, may have reached its highs this past November.

Where’s The Inflation?

As Michael Cowan has just reported, banks are absconding with depositor’s money under the guise of ‘bail-in’.

If the fiat cash is so worthless, why are banks seizing it?

As Robert Prechter Jr., said years ago, ‘all fiat cash ultimately goes to zero’; the end game (most likely) for the dollar. However, it could be months, years, or even a decade before that happens.

For right now, today, this minute, the data is showing us, the banks want the money; ‘Show me the money‘.

With that, let’s look at the non-existent ‘inflation’ in the mining sector.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

The first chart identifies the heavy volume and then test of wide price bars. This behavior is common in the markets; they tend to come back and test wide high-volume areas.

Next, we see there’s a terminating wedge developing as volume declines; the inference, is lack of significant commitment at these price levels.

We’ll get close-in on the wedge; last week printed a lower weekly low and closed lower for the week.

There’s no breakdown of the wedge … yet.

At this juncture, it’s up to the bulls to show they’re still in control.

Inflation vs. Scarcity

We have without a doubt, the effects of the event from the past three years gaining momentum. Whether or not those effects reach a peak this year, is unknown.

A lot of the mainstream and YouTuber’s alike talk about the upward move in gold as the result of ‘inflation’.

Here’s a little bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else; how about gold rising because the above mentioned ‘effects‘ are causing production volumes to decline?

Maybe it’s because of scarcity (along with nearly everything else) that’s causing the increase in price.

Just to drive that idea home, the latest total gold production numbers, listed here.

Gold production for 2020 dropped -8.2%, from the year prior. Year 2021 was down -1%, from 2020.

From 2010 to 1019, gold production increased or was flat year over year … that is, until 2020.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil & Gas … The Reversal

Form, Is First … Time, Is Next

With Price Action … form is first, then time.

There was a larger than expected crude inventory build, as ‘the consumer is weaker than expected’.

The ‘consumer’ is not weaker than expected, they’re tapped out.

There’s real potential, events accelerate from here.

The reversal in the sector, XOP, was anticipated to happen on Friday, tomorrow.

At this point, it looks like it came early.

The daily chart of XOP, below shows a reversal at the Fibonacci 50%, retrace.

Oil & Gas XOP, Daily

The next chart zooms-in on the reversal.

We’re about fifteen-minutes before the regular session and set to open lower.

Look for the market to print lower, then attempt a rally as a test of the reversal.

That retrace, if it occurs, may be a low-risk area for a short via DRIP (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the anticipated test fails, and price action makes a new daily high (above yesterday’s print), it’s then likely the sector is on its way to all-time highs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Precious Metals … Silver & Gold

The ‘Non-Confirmation’

Something’s not right in the precious metals sector.

Gold’s just off -8%, from its highs while other monetary metals (Palladium, Platinum, Silver) are far below their highs; silver’s off a whopping -51.75%, from its 2011, highs.

In addition, as we’ll see below, silver (SLV) is just now contacting the right side of a trend line and potential downward channel structure that goes all the way back to the lows of 2015.

The ‘Squeeze’ of 2021

Below on the weekly chart of SLV, is a point labeled “1”.

That’s the location of what turned out to be a right-side trend line contact. Back then, an update on the ‘squeeze’ was posted, linked here.

Taken from that update was the following (emphasis added):

Those attempting garner forces (the little guy) to move the markets, such as silver, will find out soon enough who’s in control … and it’s not them.

It’s unlikely silver is going higher any time soon. There could be some upward spasms as the crowded trade exhausts itself; it’s likely we’ve seen the SLV highs for quite some time.

So, here we are nearly two years later; SLV never posted higher than the February 2nd, squeeze of 2021.

So, what’s next? Is there something else going on?

We’ll look at that question after the charts.

Silver SLV, Weekly

First, is the un-marked chart.

Next, we see a pattern that’s not so clear without mark-up.

For SLV, to break out, there needs to be an absence of motivated sellers (prices drift higher) or sufficient buying demand to overcome the downward trend.

Inflection Point

For an idea of what’s likely to happen next, we’re going to go to an unlikely source; Daniela Cambone and Gregory Mannarino.

It’s not about ‘controlling’ inflation and it never was, going all the way back to 1913. It’s about the ‘end game’, as discussed by Mannarino.

“Eliminate The Middle Class” (time stamp 11:40)

The sticky wicket is the ‘debt bubble’ and the ‘elephant’.

The Elephant Grows

The chart of silver (and other precious metals) and its non-confirmation with gold, could be an indicator of debt collapse and demand collapse first, before hyperinflation.

Multiple times a day now we have reports like the following flooding into the marketplace:

COVID Vaccines Are “Obviously Dangerous” And Should Be Halted Immediately, Say Senior Swedish Doctors

‘Normalization’ Of Emergency Use Authorizations Concerns Health Experts

CDC Says Stroke Concerns Over Pfizer Jab Warrant Investigation

They Promised “Safe And Effective”; We Got “Sudden And Unexpected”

Pentagon “Exploring” Back-Pay For Troops Kicked Out Over COVID Vaccine Mandate

Multiple Young Athletes And Former Athletes Died Suddenly This Past Month

Doctor Calls For Withdrawal Of Pfizer, Moderna COVID-19 Vaccines Following New Research

The above list is just since yesterday and it’s only 2:00 p.m., Central Time, today!!!

Monetary & Manufacturing

Silver is unique more so than gold, in that it’s an industrial metal as well as monetary.

The collapse in manufacturing demand could be the reason silver’s not confirming gold’s move.

It may also be telling us, as the effects of the elephant take hold, a huge liquidation of all assets could be coming; paradoxically as the need for fiat cash (not precious metals) to pay off debt, increases.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta Airlines … The Short Set-Up

Hanging In ‘Mid-Air’

It’s a good thing we’re not listening to the financial press as the market’s ‘Call The Fed’s Bluff’; we would’ve missed the set-up.

Let’s bookmark this post (like the last one), come back in July or so, and see how the poker-hand with The Fed played out.

Three guesses on who’s going to win and the first two, don’t count. 🙂

With Delta, it’s not the Fed they have to worry about. A series of events were set in motion (i.e., pilot ‘shortage’) that may not get fixed for years to come.

Ditto, for the other airlines.

Moving on, let’s take a look at what the price action of Delta (DAL), is telling us.

For brevity, we’ll go straight to a marked-up (and time compressed) weekly chart of DAL.

Delta Airlines DAL, Weekly

DAL spent nearly a year building a ‘terminating wedge’ before breaking down during February of 2020.

Hmmm, February of 2020, what was happening back then?

That breakdown, coupled with the terminating wedge, and it’s almost as if someone knew something; time enough to position massively short or buy put options.

Subsequent retrace off the 2020 lows, were at lower and lower Fibonacci levels … with the current retrace at 50%.

The Options Trade

Dr. Alexander Elder describes (Come Into My Trading Room) one way to trade options that few attempt.

That is, instead of buying long dated options and then waiting for the slow burn down of capital, the lesser-known method is exactly the opposite.

In his book, he describes buying short-dated OEX (S&P 100) Put options for 3/8ths … back in the day when the market traded in fractions.

Two days later, he sells the options for 17, a 4,433% gain.

Taking that method and applying it to the daily chart, we have the following.

Delta Airlines DAL, Daily

On Friday, there was a huge gap-lower, open.

Price action spent the rest of the session attempting to close the gap. Volume increased substantially from Thursday’s session (up +46%)

Yet, price action was not even able to touch the lows of that session; Friday’s high of 38.29, vs. Thursday’s low of 38.32.

It’s a nuance that may have meaning or not.

The Short Trade

As shown on the chart, a position was opened with a Put; strike at 35, and priced (at entry) at 0.09 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Following Elder’s method, the price and short expiration, says there’s no hope for this trade.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Breakout or Breakdown

The Usual Suspects

During the past three months, biotech index SPBIO, has been oscillating, coiling like a spring; preparing for a dramatic move.

Then yesterday (Thursday), there’s an upside launch.

We now have price action instability; either the bulls or the bears are in control.

At this point, we don’t know who has the upper hand.

However, based on the list of recent news items below, it does not look good for the bulls.

Biotech’s Frankenstein

Within the past few days, we have this:

Deadline Passes For Pfizer To Submit Results Of Post-Vaccination Heart Inflammation Study To US Regulators

FDA Deviated From Normal Process In Pfizer Vaccine Approval, Documents Show

Former Employees Sue ESPN After Being Fired For COVID Vaccine Refusal

Lead Author Of Research On Pfizer And Moderna Trials Warns COVID Vaccinations Must Be Stopped

Pentagon Drops COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate For Troops

Let’s see if the market’s ready to hand it to this sector. What’s the price action telling us.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

The weekly chart shows the potetial breakout.

However, since we’re looking at this from a ‘going short’ perspective (not advice, not a recommendation), the chart following this one is inverted.

When we invert the chart, it takes on a whole different look.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly (Inverted)

If price action’s spent over three months getting where support has been penetrated only to have it fail into a reversal, the ensuing move has massive potential.

In Wyckoff terms, it’s cause and effect.

The ’cause’ has been three months of congestion. The ‘effect’ is a potential long duration, or wide volatility move.

Before The Open

It’s twenty minutes before the open and 3X leveraged inverse fund LABD, is trading higher by about +3.5%.

This is normal behavior whether we have a reversal or not.

One last check of ZeroHedge, before releasing this post turns up this:

Senator Questions CDC On Why It Claimed No ‘Unexpected Safety Signals’ For COVID Vaccines

The ‘monster’ continues to grow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Behind The Scenes

The Big Reveal

Was yesterday, the infection point?

Was that the day where irrefutable evidence like this is going to stick?

Price action of Biotech Sector IBB, has posted a long awaited and anticipated reversal signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll look at that below.

The IBB, Up-Thrust & Reversal

As a reminder, in Wyckoff terms, an ‘up-thrust’ is where price action struggles above known resistance for some period of time and then reverses to the downside.

In the case of IBB, that ‘struggle’ lasted an incredible seven-weeks.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

Price action attempted to break above resistance for nearly two-months, before reversing lower.

Then we had an initial test during the week of 12/23/22 (on the daily for three days), and a secondary test last week.

Biotech IBB, Daily

The daily shows more detail on the struggle.

Point No. 1, was the initial test. Point No. 2, was the secondary test which appears to have decisively failed.

Pre-market action shows IBB, set to open slightly lower.

If it does, then expectation is for some (brief) attempt to rally as a test of the breakdown.

The Driving Force

For years, this site has not wavered in the assessment, what’s happening in this sector, will be the driving force for the entire market on a go-forward basis (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything can happen.

It’s unknown if yesterday was ‘the day’.

What is known however, evidence is building on a massive scale. Every day, sometimes multiple times a day, we see the effects.


This site presents the data, the insight and price action nuances. It does not give recommendations.

With that said, going short this sector is not as straightforward as the other major indices.

IBB, may be shorted directly but will likely result in a maintenance fee from the broker.

Of course, that puts one on the hook for the sector’s dividend payment (currently yielding 0.31%).

The other option is 2X leveraged inverse fund BIS.

However, this fund’s volume is thin … meaning it’s not nearly as liquid as the other inverse funds such as SDS, DXD, QID, SOXS and so on.

It’s up to the trader/speculator to participate or not.

We’re about fifteen-minutes before the open. Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Go Berserk … Again

Testing The Trend

Since the lows last November, to the close this past Friday, gold (GLD) has moved higher by a decent but modest 15.4%.

Naturally, the opportunists are out telling us ‘We’ve been warned’, ‘this is it’, ‘it’s going to the moon’ … yet again.

With that backdrop, we’re going to look at the precious metals facts, not the hype.

‘Precious metals’ because there are only four that have ‘currency code’ classifications, i.e., are classified as an asset with ‘currency like’ monetary characteristics.

Currency Codes

Gold, Currency Code: XAU

Silver, Currency Code: XAG

Palladium, Currency Code: XPD

Platinum, Currency Code: XPT

The Market Itself

Way back over a century ago, Wyckoff discovered the key to understanding the next likely move of the markets was the study the market itself (not fundamentals).

Wyckoff essentially ‘locked himself in a room with just a stock ticker and phone line’.

Months later, when he emerged, ‘Studies in Tape Reading‘ was the result.

We’re going to use his insight from that text.

That is, what’s the market’s saying about itself? What’s the next likely direction?

Off The Highs

For some of the precious metals, they’re off their highs by a significant amount (percentages approximated).

Gold (GLD): Down -11%, from highs

Silver (SLV): Down -55%, from 2011, highs

Palladium (PAH23): Down -47%, from highs

Platinum (PLJ23): Down -53%, from highs

All of the precious metals are down nearly 50% or more, except gold.

In the case of Platinum, it’s near 1980s levels!

So, where’s the inflation?

Oh wait, here it is … one more time.

That’s not saying ‘money printing’ has no effect. There are a lot of moving parts. Intentional destruction of the food supply is just one of those parts.

Old School Analysis

Hypothetically, if you dropped an ‘old-timer’ into the markets at this juncture (without him knowing the ‘hype’), and showed him all four charts of gold, silver, palladium, platinum, and asked ‘what’s happening?’

What’s his response?

After a brief look at the charts, he would likely say:

‘Gold’s move higher is not being confirmed by the other precious metals’.

Note that all four metals peaked together during the inflation spike of 1980.

Ergo: At this juncture, something’s wrong.

Either the other metals are going to ‘catch up’ to meet gold or gold is going to come down to meet the others.

That is of course, unless this time is different … somehow.

With that, we’ll look at the chart of gold to see what it’s saying about itself.

Gold GLD, Weekly

We’re starting with the unmarked chart.

Note: Elder’s Force Index scale is expanded to show the nuances of GLD, price action.

Next, we see we’re at a test of the trendline in place for 16-months before the downside breakout of July, last year.

Moving in closer, we have a wedge formation prior to the up-move last week.

Is this a breakout to the upside or a throw-over?

At this point, it’s unknown.

We can see that Force Index is below where price action entered the wedge during the week of November 11th.

Less force up into resistance (trendline), paints a slightly more bearish than bullish picture.

The ‘Why’ Comes Out

As if on cue and in classic Wyckoff style, we have a ‘why‘ for the move off the lows of last November.

Classic Wyckoff, because he said the ‘why’ of a move comes out after the fact.

There you have it; China buying gold last November and December.

During this move from the recent lows, it was certainly a trading opportunity for the bulls … but from a strategic standpoint, what happens next?

The Non-Confirmation

Non-confirmations can last a long time.

For example, the Oil & Gas sector XOP, declined for eight months, from April 2019 to January 2020, before the price of oil (USO) finally broke lower.

With the ZeroHedge article just released a few hours ago, we can expect at least a blip higher at the next GLD, open.

After that, we’ll see.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil Today … Gold Tomorrow

Commodities, Have Peaked

First, we’ll review oil; tomorrow, we’ll look at gold.

From an intuitive standpoint, you can almost feel it.

The oil and gas sector has launched to unsustainable highs.

Behemoths like Exxon (XOM) with its 63,000 employees have gone from below $30/share to above $110/share, an increase over 280%, in just two years.

In the history of the equity, going all the way back to 1984, that’s never happened.

Even in 1987, before the crash, XOM was up for the two-year period, a paltry 108%, by comparison.

Now, data is coming in nearly by the day about collapsing demand, layoffs accelerating, and inventories piling up.

The latest from Steven Van Metre, at time stamp 4:25, discusses just how fast the downdraft is, and will be.

Important Note:

Before we leave the Van Metre link above, at time stamp 8:50, the assertion is made of what the Fed will do when slower growth data comes in. i.e., interest rates will be halted or lowered.

Nassim Talib called this kind of thinking “Normalcy Bias”.

The opinion of this site is, it’s a trap. Thinking what happened last time, will happen this time.

Let’s mentally bookmark this post and come back six-months from now to see what happened.

We’re in uncharted territory and other agendas are at work.

Like ‘bread and circuses’, the ‘pivot’ discussion is a distraction … keeping the proletariat placated.

Demand Collapse

We’ve got demand collapsing on a daily basis right in front of our faces and yet, it’s a big mystery (to some).

What’s not known, is how the general population will react to undeniable truth when it finally hits, en masse.

We have a good hint of what’s in store as reported by Jerimiah Babe during the first minute of this report.

Moving on to the Oil & Gas Sector.

Oil & Gas XOP, Weekly

The weekly chart shows the multi-year resistance area that was tested (and rejected) back in mid-June, last year.

The next chart shows we also have a terminating wedge.

Price action has come back to the lower boundary; suggesting a breakdown is a probability.

If we get a breakdown, measured move support is identified at approximately -47%, below current levels.

Strategy & Trading

Obviously, the charts paint a bearish picture.

Over the past week, XOP was covered here and here.

The first link discussed how price action was very close to making a new daily high. That happened the next session (Friday) and indeed, it had Wyckoff ‘spring’ characteristics.

Price action moved higher and closed higher for the day, but it did not post a new weekly high … keeping the bearish case on the table.

A popular leveraged inverse fund is DRIP (not advice, not a recommendation).

At The Close

As this post comes to a close, a quick check on ZeroHedge turns up this: ‘Tipping Point

We’ve jumped over ‘recession’ and have gone straight into crisis and depression.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279