Category Archives: ZeroHedge

Mass Screaming Hysteria

August 4, 2026 By in Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge Leave a comment

FOMO

According to the finical press, it was mass screaming hysteria as stocks ‘short squeezed’ to all-time highs, link here.

However, one sector noticeably absent from the crazed party, were the semiconductors.

In fact, during the past month or so, the SOXX has gone from market leader to laggard (not advice, not a recommendation).

As we’ll see below, there’s also an interesting pattern; an a-b-c correction to a minor up-thrust.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note the inflection points at Days 1 and 3, with today, a potential inflection, at Day 5.

This price action is typical of a move to higher levels, potentially the top of the range and farther.

However, if the SOXX stalls at this point and reverses, it indicates severe weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Bulls … Whacked

July 7, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, Ox Talks, TLT, ZeroHedge 4 Comments

Higher Rates

At the pivot off the lows in May, was this.

The very next day, TLT launched into a rally, seven straight higher closes, then a minor retrace to 38%, before continuing higher.

It seemed like all was well.

However, this link contains the statement that describes it best (paraphrasing):

Four-decades of the bull market in bonds, steadily declining yields, ended four years ago.

That bull market end, first discussed on this site (over two-years ago), with this post.

All of that to say, we did get a six-week rally in TLT, which at this point, has imploded; the over-riding bear market asserts its trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

Note: The dashed downtrend line goes all the way back to the week of 4/29/22, over four years ago.

Ox Talks, on Bonds

This update from Ox Talks, discussing private credit, but containing a nuance on bonds and interest rates.

‘Retail’ is bailing out of private credit, while ‘institutions’ are taking their place, link here (Time Stamp: 5:18).

At 5:40, we see how those institutions expect to see the ‘investment’ pay off (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Construction Sector … Breakdown

July 3, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, EME, Engineering & Construction, FIX, PWR, Semiconductors, ZeroHedge

Weakest of Three

Semiconductors weren’t the only ones going over the edge yesterday.

Engineering & Construction was as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stories like this, may be a clue.

Of the three largest caps, PWR, FIX and EME, the weakest price action (at this time) is Emcor Group Inc., EME.

Emcor Group, EME, Daily

Yesterday, was a breakdown through a long term trendline (dashed blue line).

‘Normal’ market behavior, like discussed with the semi’s (yesterday), is to come back for a test (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that test happens, there’s no required timeframe.

Price action itself will let us know.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Russell … Re-Visited

June 3, 2026 By in AA, Artificial Intelligence, AVGO, IWM, IWM-26-01, Russell 2000, Semiconductors, TZA, TZA-26-01, ZeroHedge

Another (short) ‘Signal’?

The price action ‘signal’ at left, looks nearly identical to the one linked here.

In the case of Alcoa (AA), it continued lower for another day before the decline halted, then congested sideways.

Is that what’s going to happen with IWM?

Or, does the Broadcom implosion after-hours, potentially mark the beginning of the long awaited ‘correction’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … after-hours

April 7, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, NVDA-26-01, Semiconductors, ZeroHedge

Fibonacci Levels

The markets are higher in the after-hours session on news of a potential cease-fire, link here.

Nvidia’s no exception.

However, as the chart shows, it’s right at a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace (as of 7:13 p.m., EST).

If this level holds, or if NVDA moves higher, tomorrow’s session is likely to be quite interesting (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Netflix in a Struggle

March 10, 2026 By in NFLX, NFLX-26-01, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

Last Gasp?

Netflix has been grinding at resistance for over a week with no apparent headway.

With stories like this, all the ‘good’ news may already be out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Spotify … Short Targets

February 10, 2026 By in Retail Investor, SPOT, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Dip, or Squeeze?

Spotify’s earnings release, coincided with a (supposedly) massive ‘retail’ buying spree, link here.

The article says it’s retail causing the launch; comment’s section, says otherwise.

From a Wyckoff analysis perspective, it doesn’t matter who’s doing the buying or why.

What matters, is what the market is saying about itself.

Spotify SPOT, Daily

As this link says, there’s not much sold short … less than 3% of float.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Viva Las Vegas!

January 8, 2026 By in 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, S&P, S&P 500, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

Well, Not Really

It’s no secret the ‘consumer’ is up against a wall.

FRED links for various forms of debt are here, here and here.

Then, we have this just out from ZeroHedge; wide disparity between bonds and the market.

Original website, link here.

Paraphrasing from that link:

‘Expect to see an equity crash that will rival or surpass any seen before.’

We’ve all been hearing that for a long time. Are we close?

Well, some sectors are already rolling over.

The focus (on this site) for a while, has been ‘consumer discretionary’ and related.

Yesterday, was DoorDash. Today, is Las Vegas.

Las Vegas Sands LVS, Monthly

During the last melt-down, LVS cratered over -99%.

The monthly chart shows the potential.

At present, we have a repeating pattern: Spring to Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla’s Electric Short

January 1, 2026 By in AMZN, CRWD, TSLA, XLY, XLY-25-03, ZeroHedge

Ignored, by ‘Mr. Big’

The latest out from ZeroHedge, says that Michael Burry (a.k.a., The Big Short), while claiming Tesla is overvalued (current P/E, 271), does not have a short position.

Adding to the ‘overvaluation’ theme, is deterioration in sales that’s now entering its second year; here and here. Yet, TSLA just made all-time highs this past December 22nd.

In a nutshell, this is the problem with ‘fundamentals’.

Meaning, as far as assessing price action probability, they’re not useful and never have been (not advice, not a recommendation).

A good example of that premise is CrowdStrike (CRWD); with its current P/E, at minus 428. That’s a negative.

When their P/E, is positive, which is not often, we get numbers like 786; yet, the closing price (yesterday) for CRWD was 468.76, with a market cap of 119.4 billion.

How does that even work?

Possibly more entertaining from the ZeroHedge link, are the comments. All kinds of reasons not to short Tesla.

Tesla TSA, Daily

What do you see?

TSLA printed an all-time high on an attempted breakout that has so far, fallen below resistance.

On the sell side, is of course, to short TSLA directly.

Not wanting to be completely exposed to any untoward action, one can short Consumer Discretionary XLY, and effectively short AMZN as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CAT (break) Test Complete?

December 20, 2025 By in CAT, CAT-25-02, ZeroHedge

A Tale of Two Fibonacci’s

As the tagline says, we had two Fibonacci levels posted by CAT on Friday.

The chart shows a print low on the 17th, to Friday’s high, was 38.2% retrace of the move from all-time highs.

The insert shows the close version of the same chart. On a close basis, CAT retraced 23.6%.

Caterpillar CAT, Daily

Note the action of the past two trading days were ‘inside’ the down bar posted on the 17th.

With the trend break from the prior update, then posting a retrace of two Fibonacci levels simultaneously, plus the large high-volume bar (on the 17th), suggests the upside test may be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

The week ended with multiple records set, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279