‘Stacking’ … Strategic Error ?

Late Session

How many of our YouTube ‘stackers’ are chess players?

A quick check of three popular (randomly picked) ‘stacking’ YouTubers, has one showing his intro with a pile of silver being stacked under the floor.

The other has ‘trinkets’ on her desk and supposed collectibles behind her.

The other has gone as far to say, the reason gold and silver are not going higher, is because of the public itself.

No overt reference to chess or any reference to chess play as a means of addressing market conditions.

They may indeed have knowledge but they’re not showing it as a matter of course.

If memory serves, one of Richard Denis’ interview questions to his potential ‘Turtle’ trader(s) was whether he (she) played chess.

Take look at the host site’s business logo (Three Ten Trading, LLC) and we’ll leave the discussion there.

It’s the author’s opinion, the ‘stacker’ sites are in the business of getting more business; not analyzing the markets with any high level of thought or seriousness.

However, they might have a purpose.

It’s possible, they fulfill the ‘bread and circuses’ void that’s the hallmark of an empire’s collapse; which brings us to the situation at hand.

This ‘collapse’ we’re in, is a process not an event.

As we continue on, it’s becoming clear that single-mindedly stockpiling inedible metal in hopes of surviving what’s here now, and what’s coming, is a major (if not potentially fatal) blunder.

The players on this global chess board are making their moves and then counter moves.

Case in point is Southwest Airlines cancellations and shutdown.

Southwest Airlines:

The company has made its move.

The employees countered with their move. Perhaps even more importantly, they did it with bravery.

It’s likely, a large part of them, if not all (who are not showing up for work) will eventually be terminated.

It’s also reasonable to think when they made their move, they understood full well, the potential (termination) outcome.

Economic Shutdown:

As ZeroHedge reports, what if more corporations experience similar (employee walk-out) events?

What if it’s a mass exodus?

Is anybody really ready to walk or ride their bike … even a horse, to work because there’s no fuel at the gas station?

If there’s no fuel, there are no deliveries of any kind.

A check of the Home Depot, in this area has it relatively stocked in the garden section.

However, from a personal standpoint, after checking the local Tractor Supply, there’s no Jobe’s (organic) fertilizer to be found at either site (save the one torn bag at Home Depot).

The shelves are empty … for that item at least.

Mass Psychological Shift

Remember our example of herd behavior? That it can turn on a dime; doing it instantly across thousands of miles?

Storable food is running low. What about seeds and fertilizer?

Genesis 41

What happens when the public realizes all-at-once, it’s the food supply that’s not ever (in quantity) coming back?

Suppose they collectively decide (rightly or wrongly), the ‘stackers’ are just another herd of followers.

That it was all yet another lie; a diversion away from the real problem.

Silver and gold are great if you already have it.

However, this site’s sticking to the Biblical, Genesis 41, world view.

That is, corn and grain (food) come first. Then, gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

Remember, Joseph was paid first (for grain) with money (i.e., the silver stack).

When the money was exhausted, livestock was used.

When that ran out, the people sold themselves into slavery to obtain food.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Moderna Djab, Investigated

Before The Open

But Don’t Expect Anything

Round up the usual suspects.

Make it look like we’re doing something.

Our ‘parabolic’ report on MRNA, was posted before the open, August 10th.

That post included the following summary:

‘This is the type of parabolic rise (and blow-off top) typically seen in commodities.’

Then, about seven minutes after the open, MRNA peaked and reversed into a two-day collapse over -25%.

Down-thrust energy, the amount of downward force in price action, was literally off the chart; the strongest ever recorded since MRNA, started trading in December of 2018.

Price action leads the news. This case was no exception.

This report, just out on ZeroHedge shows there’s a half-hearted attempt to draw attention to a so-called ‘rare’ side effect.

Even so, the insiders probably figure the jig is up and they’re bailing out.

The biotech sector (SPBIO) continues its bear market decline. Yesterday, it closed down over -32%, from its February 2021, highs.

Looking at MRNA, we see a now familiar set-up:

‘Spring to Up-thrust’

A casual look at MRNA, and you can see shades of 1929, in the price action.

We’ve had the ‘crash’, the 25% decline followed by a weak rebound.

Now, there may be a sustained and long term decline (months, years) ultimately bringing MRNA, below its all-time trading lows (below 11.54).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘When’s the next Bear Market?’

9:47 a.m., EST

ZeroHedge Report Acts Like It’s Not Here

Jerimiah Babe says “Have You Looked Outside?”

If the mainstream media is good for anything, it’s the ability to keep the herd, the retail, (Robinhood kids, et al.) fully distracted until it’s absolutely too late for action.

Even though this report from ZeroHedge gives all kinds of ‘signals’ saying we’re not there yet; It even goes as far as showing there’s no yield curve inversion. Of course that means ‘no risk’ of bear market.

Then going on to say, ‘None of these measures indicate a bear market is near’. I mean, you can’t make this stuff up.

What’s the table above (yesterday’s close) say about what’s really going on?

At this point it’s obvious the media are not going to discuss the on-going bear market in biotech, SPBIO.

Doing so, would require some kind of investigation as to why? That would open Pandora’s box and have everyone digging for truth … something to be avoided (censured) at all costs.

Amateurs always want (need) to know why.

Livermore was never concerned with the why. He looked for ‘what’. What is the price action doing now or what is it likely to do.

As Wyckoff said, ‘the why always comes out later … after the fact’

‘Why’ is a useless trading strategy.

However, in the case of biotech, we can take a good guess what the ‘why’ is all about.

Fall and Winter are very close now. As this interview with Stew Peters reveals, Fall and Winter are when we get the real picture of ‘side effects’.

Biotech is ahead of the pack on the downside and for good reason.

Positioning:

Positions have not changed except for additions of LABD as SPBIO declines and LABD heads higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

As a reminder, this site’s not interested in day trading or even swing trading unless that’s all the market offers.

No, we’re interested in positioning strategically.

This type of trading is modeled after the host’s twenty-four years of experience with aircraft flight test and certification.

A typical project would take five to seven years to complete; have a near infinite number of complex stages along the way with each one a profession unto itself.

At this juncture, biotech may be poised for the largest implosion ever seen in market history.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

After the ‘plug is pulled …’

Jerimiah Babe:

‘The real money’s going to be made, after the plug is pulled’

Well, that’s close.

Actually, the real money’s made on the way down … when the plug is pulled … not after.

‘After’, is when you take the huge gains from the short side and then allocate that to areas which stand to recover … or at least have a good chance of recovery.

It’s a two-step process:

Nobody demonstrated that better than Livermore himself during the panic of 1907.

It’s probably no surprise that panic was potentially a fabricated event (sound familiar?).

It laid the groundwork for the Federal Reserve act of 1913.

Operating in parallel, we have the following:

Titanic engineering design approval: July of 1908.

Construction begins: March 1909.

Sea trials: Early April, 1912

Titanic ‘sinks’: April 15, 1912.

April 15th, is tax day … coincidence … no.

Whether or not there really is a ship (or which one is) at the bottom of the Atlantic, is immaterial.

What’s important, was that it all may have been a controlled demolition of the financial system so that it cold be ‘reset’ to allow fractional reserve banking.

The fly in the ointment? Unexpectedly, Livermore owned the market at the bottom. He could have single handedly destroyed the financial system by executing more short selling.

That’s when J.P. Morgan (possibly chief cook and bottle washer for the ‘reset’) called him in to appeal to Livermore’s ‘patriotism’; to not destroy the market. You can’t make this stuff up.

So, it’s time to reset the system every hundred years or so.

Just like it’s time to have a medical ‘incident’ and reduce the population every hundred years or so:

2019: ‘The Speck’

1918: ‘Espana’ Flu

1817: ‘Cholera’

1718: ‘Plague’

How does this relate to the markets? For this update, the preamble above, brings us to gold (GLD):

Gold (GLD) Analysis:

It’s no secret, price action in GLD and the miners (GDX, GDXJ), has been analyzed for months as bearish.

The weekly chart shows GLD, right at the edge of a terminating wedge; about to break lower:

The measured move … to around GLD ~ 120, is exactly at the Fibonacci 161.8%, projection (not shown).

If there’s a wedge breakdown, we have two separate measurement techniques targeting the same area.

The next chess move, is probably not going to be dollar destruction.

No. The next move is likely to be as stated before, supply chain shut-down with the objective of ‘starve them out’.

In a prior update, when that statement was made, it may have sounded extreme. Now, we have this interview and time stamp (8:11), where we get the exact same thing.

Take Action:

This article, just out on ZeroHege is a good one-stop shop to start or continue being out in front of ‘events’.

Here’s a brief video of one man’s action, in action:

Four hens, a rooster, in an urban setting (houses on three sides).

The rooster was not part of the plan. If you look closely, you can see his ‘No Crow‘ collar … it works most of the time.

He was unexpected but is now seen as an asset.

He keeps the hens under control (otherwise, they fight) and gets them all back in the coop at night.

Is it a hassle: Yes.

Is it messy: Yes.

Will the neighbors not care about the crowing, be clamoring (and paying with cash, gold, silver) for eggs and chicks three months from now, if/when food shipments are cut off? Probably, yes

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The CDC, The PCR, and Biotech

12:20 p.m., EST

ZeroHedge picks up the story

As if on cue, ZeroHedge has just posted this article which covers the No. 1 bullet item from yesterday’s ‘Random Notes’.

It’s typically not the article that’s of major importance but the comments.

A screen-shot of comments with a series of links from that article, are below:

ItsAllBollocks13 hours ago

Why isn’t anyone mentioning the WEF? It’s all there in Claus Schwab’s book called the Great Reset, can’t anyone read anymore?

https://straight2point.info/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/COVID-19_-The-Great-Reset-Klaus-Schwab.pdfplay_arrow13play_arrow

Mister E11 hours ago

excuse me but people post about the WEF here all the time, are you new?play_arrow7play_arrow

Not Your Father’s ZH34 minutes ago (Edited)

Yeah, right? I and others have posted many times about the not-so-Great Reset, Cyber Polygon, Event 201, Herr Unkle Klaus Schwab’s Chez Davos broiled insect loaf under polystyrene, owning nothing and being thrilled, etc. Whitney Webb has been one of the best reporters on it, Catherine Austin Fitts, many more. Lew Rockwell is the single best place to start from, as it links to all of this. Speaking of which:   7.9 Billion Lives in the Balance

The Covered-Up Crimes of Vaccine-Maker Pfizer – Just Another “Too-Big-To-Fail” American Corporation

Joe Biden Spreads Vaccine Misinformation Live on CNN to Millions of Americans

CDC Panel Signals Support for Booster Shots, as Reports of Injuries, Deaths After Covid Vaccines Near 500,000

‘Every Solution Except the Vaccine Has Been Suppressed’    We Live in a Fraud of Unprecedented Dimensions

How To Get Ivermectin      Ways To Take Action     Child Abuse       https://www.technocracy.news/

Bombshell lawsuit: Gov’t whistleblower says coronavirus vaccine deaths at least 45,000

47 studies confirm ineffectiveness of masks for Covid and 32 more confirm their negative health effectsplay_arrow3play_arrow

It’s obvious those monitoring and commenting on ZeroHedge are wide awake.

Once again, all of this brings us back to biotech.

Biotech, SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:

We’re going to start with an unmarked chart of inverse fund LABD, on the weekly scale:

It may not be obvious at first, but the chart can be separated in two as shown:

That inflection point, the week of May 14th, ’21, is where the bulls attempted a reversal and the bears (of SPBIO) are going to take control.

Notice that before May 14th, price action is wide and choppy. Afterwards, it settles down into a clean and rythmic flow.

From that inflection, LABD price corrected downward a Fibonacci 8 weeks before pivoting to the upside (SPBIO lower).

Now, we can draw a trading channel:

For months, the anticipated low of SPBIO, high for the LABD trade (not advice, not a recommendation) was/is planned to be the third week in October.

As price action progresses, and taking a cue from Robert Prechter (about trading for large gains), one needs to be prepared for SPBIO to just keep on going lower (LABD higher); even through October if that’s the case.

Summary:

The ZeroHedge article and especially the comments, show we’re in the middle of the largest fraud in world history.

It’s disappointing but not surprising, ‘certified’ management agencies (and I personally monitor quite a few) are saying nothing (publicly) about what’s really going on.

Their websites still show the ubiquitous sailboat with the retired couple looking out wistfully into the (chem-trailed) sunset.

Trading For Your Life:

With each passing day, it’s becoming obvious self-employment (like trading) may be the only way out. The big corporations are likely to mandate (illegally) en-masse, that everyone’s injected.

The plan to destroy the smaller businesses looks to be moving forward via more ‘lockdowns’.

Some states (like Texas) may somehow be separate. So far, so good.

The other states, not so much.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Read My Lips …’

3:21 p.m., EST

No More High Prices

This article, just out from ZeroHedge, says ‘consumers’ are in a revolt.

No more high prices.

Buying plans for the major items, housing, auto, appliances has declined dramatically.

One chart, linked here, shows consumer complaints about high prices are the most since the data started … 1961.

The reality is the retail consumer has come to the end of the rope.

To loosely quote Von Mises; ‘If you don’t voluntarily get your spending under control … the market will do it for you.’

To quote another financial source, Steven Van Metre; he has discussed for months, that high prices will be rejected. The economy will contract and bond prices will rise.

Bonds have indeed gone up in anticipation of contraction; or forecasting an outright collapse.

Throw into the mix that we’re going to have some kind of ‘fatality event’ this coming winter; for sure, there won’t be much demand for high priced items … just from the contraction of the population itself.

Which brings us to biotech (SPBIO).

SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:

The unmarked chart of inverse fund LABD is first (just to give perspective):

Next we’ll show that LABD has or is testing support and at the same time, confirming a trendline:

Biotech is the downside leader … sometimes tag-teaming with gold but for the most part it’s biotech.

Positioning:

It’s no secret I have positioned my firm short this sector in a big way since April of this year (not advice, not a recommendation).

That position has been adjusted over the months but has been steadily increased since the intermediate low on June 28th.

Since that low, the position has been increased six times (including yesterday) and may also be done so today.

Summary:

Once again, we’re heading into the weekend. The S&P (SPY) has just printed ‘out-side-down’.

Anyone still want to hold long the market?

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Economic Collapse … The Model

1:44 p.m., EST

South Africa shows us how it’s done

‘Hey J.B., when’s the collapse?’

That’s a comment often seen on any number of Jerimiah Babe’s updates; openly mocking his doom and gloom assessment.

Whether he’s at the local homeless camp in Los Angeles, or in his home next to the golf course, the question remains the same;

‘J.B., When’s the collapse?’

Sometimes his response (if he’s at home) is to turn his head to the window and say “Have you looked outside?”

A good number of American’s have become so pathetically weak, ignorant, and just (to overuse the word) plain stupid, they expect to sit on their newly built patio deck (using last year’s stimmie check) and observe the fall of the U.S. from the comforts of their own back-yard.

Of course, there are some (including this author) who are first generation Americans. Their parents and grandparents emigrated (or escaped) from communist countries.

Those people do not have to ‘wake up’; they were never asleep.

Coming Attractions:

South Africa gives us the model for what’s in store … at least for sections of the U.S.; probably starting first with the blue sates (we’ll see).

You might say, it’s already happening in Portland.

One news item of note shown in this report from South Africa, is neighborhood patrols.

If that’s coming our way, then we’ll need to get outfitted (if not already). Here’s a good place to start.

All of which, brings us to the markets.

Bonds (TLT):

Yesterday’s update showed how the so-called ‘bloodbath‘ was actually a set-up to go long (not advice, not a recommendation).

It didn’t take long for bonds (TLT) to give a Weis method ‘buy signal’. That happened at the open today.

The bull move in bonds does not confirm the ‘re-opening’ hype. That in itself, should be all that’s needed to make decisions.

It is interesting to note; on sites like ZeroHedge, there’s no talk whatsoever that biotech has (already) reversed and is leading the way down.

As of this post, inverse biotech fund LABD, is up about 38%, from its lows of late June. It appears poised for yet another breakout; lower for SPBIO and higher for LABD.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Garbage In … Garbage Out

10:49 a.m., EST

Another day spent digging in the trash

This morning’s perusal through the usual suspects of finance, leaves the feeling you’re sifting through garbage.

Every once in a while, like yesterday’s post, there’s something useful.

Most times, not.

Today is no different.

Here we have an article about the ‘bond bloodbath’ and how inflation is not transitory.

Instead of falling into the trap of contesting the current false narrative, we’ll take a different approach.

How can the constant stream of financial nonsense, lies and miss-direction, be put to use?

Since the article linked above is about bonds, we’ll use that for our example.

The Bond Market (TLT):

First, the David Weis training video (linked here) has been discussed many times over the years.

We can’t make recommendations but we will make a suggestion; that is, whatever the video costs at this point is well worth it.

Our TLT market entry technique (below), is taken from that video (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll start with an unmarked chart of TLT. The ‘bloodbath’ referred to in the link above, is yesterday’s down-draft.

Steven Van Metre has already laid the fundamental groundwork (for about a year) on why bonds will rally.

We’re there now but the market’s not going to let anyone get positioned long easily.

The next chart shows how the Weis technique can be used to get aboard the rally.

Yesterday’s so-called bloodbath, is really a trade entry set-up.

Notice how the market does not come back to the ‘entry’ levels. This chart fits the Weis example to perfection.

The bond market’s signaling there’s something very wrong with the ‘reflation’ or ‘re-opening’ trade.

The reflation, re-opening does not exist.

The economy is not coming back.

Summary:

It took over twenty years of searching to stumble across the Weis video. As with a lot of things in life, it was almost by accident.

After watching him dissect the ‘Apache Spring’ (APA) trade, it was obvious the search for ‘truth’ had ended; the education was about to begin.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

SOXX: Testing The Top

12:03 p.m., EST

Underside Test of Resistance

The last update on SOXX, noted one thing missing was a new daily low confirming the reversal. About 15-minutes after that post, SOXX printed a new daily low.

Now, we’re in an underside test of the breakdown.

The daily close chart (above) shows price action coming back to the underside. This is how the market squeezes out risk of a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday’s update had a link to ZeroHedge about how the market ‘has to’ move higher this week; the ‘selling’ is finished.

A healthy way to view this type of information is to be aware of the source.

If it’s a major retail brokerage or trading firm, their own (internal) market stance is likely to be completely opposite their financial press release.

Let’s see what happens next.

We’re not looking to short the SOXX but it’s still an educational exercise to monitor the sector.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

The usual suspects for the week

No. 1

The market does not ‘have’ to do anything.

Here’s a link to a Zerohedge report letting us know why the market ‘has to cover shorts‘ and move higher this coming week.

The reason retail money managers, pundits and the financial press don’t focus on price action and volume (a life-long pursuit of mastery), is because it’s hard.

As the late David Weis said:

‘There’s a lot to this game of reading the chart.’

Just as Steven Van Metre has drilled down into perfecting his style of bond ‘macro’ management, so too has this site drilled down into the nuance of volume and price action.

That in turn, is coupled with the externals (the ‘macro’, if you will) of sentiment and fundamentals.

It’s more art and intuition than science.

That’s a good thing.

The pointy headed ‘quants’, can’t quantify intuition.

The market (which is thinning out as we speak) may indeed rise this coming week. However, if it does, it won’t be because it ‘has’ to.

No. 2

The ‘knock at the door’

Awaken With JP has a humorous but educational approach on how to help those who want to ‘help’ us.

No. 3

Get the ethanol out

Here’s a brief video on how to get the ethanol out of gasoline.

Once that’s out, you’ll need octane boost. This seems to be highly rated stuff.

No. 4

Grow and store your own. Food, that is.

In this report from iceagefarmer, the picture at time stamp 10:27, should dispel all illusion. ‘Shaking hands with Klaus’.

At time stamp 16:02, notice how many farmers have been notified.

Once awake, anomalies like these ‘numbers’ are spotted instantly. It serves to remind us, who is ‘of this world’.

My kingdom is not of this world

No. 5

Brew your own. Beer, that is.

At this point in time and with global shutdowns on the horizon again, maybe we just brew our own.

I have purchased the exact kit shown in the link.

Report on the results to follow.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.