Category Archives: ZeroHedge

‘Mania’ or ‘Money’ … Your Choice

May 30, 2023 By in Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, NVDA, Positions, The Maverick of Wall Street, TSLA, ZeroHedge

The Challenge Vs., The Money

The ‘Artificial Intelligence’ (AI) clown show’s in full swing with a ‘predicted‘ single quarter target of $11-Billion, from NVDA.

That’s not to be confused with the budget clown show just ended in Washinton D.C.

And where does that leave Tesla? They seem to be left out of the latest round of cult-like insanity.

Back in the day, Dr. Alexander Elder stated, professionals don’t look for the ‘challenge’ in the markets (trying to figure out the NVDA, top), they look for the ‘money’ … there’s a huge difference.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Candle

As of 12:35 p.m., EST, from a technical perspective, even though we’re up for the day (so far), MACD momentum’s increasing to the downside (magenta arrow).

Nobody seems to be paying attention to gold and silver; all eyes are focused on the next shiny object.

Pulling out a bit farther on the weekly, there’s no question we’re in a channel.

The question is, are we (GDXJ) going to say in that channel or reverse from here?

The last update said we’d likely be testing the wedge break and that’s what’s happening.

A ‘test’ will take however long is needed. It’s either pass or fail. Pass in this case is resumption to the downside.

Technical conditions (MACD, wedge break) favor the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

In addition, we need to keep in mind there’s a new circus in town; the miners may be well on their way to more downside before anyone steps out of the big-top to notice.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Narrow ‘Breadth’ … What It Means

April 27, 2023 By in Biotech, S&P 500, S&P, LABD, SPY, ZeroHedge, SPBIO, The Maverick of Wall Street, $SPSIBI, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT 1 Comment

Record Extreme

One report covering the historic narrowing of the market is here.

Never before seen narrow breadth: What does it mean?

It means the market’s ‘keeping up appearances’ while the foundation’s been removed.

That way, the professionals can get out the door; sell or sell-short, funnel capital to the only three tickers left (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT), while the public looks at the SPY, and says ‘Where’s the collapse?’

Let the crowd focus on the S&P … probably the most computer controlled, AI driven, Machiavellian manipulated market in the world … but hey, I’ve got my i-phone trading app and I’m going to ‘Put it to the man’.

Meanwhile, downside leader biotech, inches lower.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

Let’s review where we are with SPBIO, with the full understanding that anything can happen.

For now, we’re heading lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s obvious. Biotech’s following a Fibonacci time sequence.

Let’s pull out to the larger weekly chart and see something really scary.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close

If we really are at the right side of the trading channel, it’s not looking good for the bulls.

Of course, it all makes sense.

The market’s at record breadth divergence. Banks are collapsing, Ukraine (fabricated, or not) coupled with trade wars, the consumer’s tapped-out (credit at maximum) and on it goes.

Positioning

Early this session, the short position in biotech (via LABD) was increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

The table below shows the trading (entry) activity during the on-going reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Hard Stop: 16.79

The notation ‘LABD-23-05’, indicates this is the fifth trading campaign (or trade series) in LABD for the year.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Early Stage Reversal

April 21, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, The List, The Speck, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

The ‘Big’ One ?

Sometimes early in a reversal it looks like nothing’s happening.

Only after we’re underway, it’s clear where the pivot occurred.

In our case, biotech SPBIO, broke down out of its bear flag, came back to test and now, may be continuing on its downward track.

The reversal’s not obvious yet and can be easily negated by more upward pressure. We’re at The Danger Point®.

A quick review of the monthly chart shows a potential Head & Shoulders forming.

Biotech SPBIO, Monthly

If that’s what’s happening, the H&S pattern, it’s massive; spanning five-years and counting.

The ‘Fundamentals’

Of course, a massive reversal pattern would coincide with what’s happening overall at this juncture.

It seems that each day, we have more of this:

Twitter Files: Dr. Anthony Fauci “Lied Under Oath”

CDC Director Admits Vaccines Do Not Prevent COVID Transmission, Blames “Evolution Of Science”

Throw in a banking crisis or two, credit tightening, supply disruptions and this sector may collapse under the weight of that all by itself (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving closer in, on a 3-Day chart we see the break and test more clearly.

Biotech SPBIO, 3-Day

We’ll zoom-in on the trend break.

Lastly, going to the 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, on the daily timeframe, it shows a repeating trendline that may be in confirmation during this session (currently, 11:15 a.m. EST).

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

It’s still early in the session and anything can happen.

This is where the risk is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Spike & Reversal

April 14, 2023 By in Food Supply, Livermore, Natural Gas, UNG, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Doing What It Does

Nat-Gas likes to spike at reversals.

In that sense, it’s similar to the silver futures market; it’s just what they do.

A spike does not guarantee reversal.

However, when we get one like today’s early morning (pre-market) session, it’s time to watch and position for what happens next (not advice, not a recommendation).

The futures chart link here, shows the early morning spike to 1.946. Now, we’re getting a recovery and test.

So, What’s Next?

The fundamentals say, nat-gas is lower on ‘over-supply’.

That may be true but here’s where it gets interesting; supply can be ‘destroyed‘ in an instant.

In the above article, the colloquial ‘ZeroHedge Guys’ with astute comments, shed light here and here.

Moving on to the chart of Nat-Gas we’re looking at UNG on a Fibonacci 8-Day, basis.

Natural Gas UNG, 8-Day

The chart shows a Wyckoff spring set-up in progress.

We’ve pushed below support.

Now, early in the session (11:20 a.m., EST), price action is inching its way back to test the resistance.

Positioning long at this juncture is potentially both strategic and tactical (not advice, not a recommendation).

Strategic in the sense, we’re operating in an environment of possible ‘shortage’ and ‘disruption’.

Tactical in the sense, nat-gas tends to reverse on a spike (either up or down).

Probabilities have put the odds to the upside.

Target Area(s)

If nat-gas gets to the target area shown, we can expect the requisite chaos to be part of the picture.

As Livermore frequently said, we’re looking at ‘what is’ and not what we want it to be.

If this is a medium to long-term move, we’re still in the very early stages.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Train Keeps Rollin’

April 4, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, The List, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Correction & Reversal, Gaining Steam

The biotech sector’s (upside) correction is complete.

If that’s correct, it’s likely to get very serious to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

A massive list of fundamentals, i.e., ‘side effects’, have been documented on this sector’s reprehensible behavior (saying it politely) over the past three years.

‘The List’

From here on out, we’ll call the linked information that follows, ‘The List’. So, we have The Biotech List, linked here, here, and here.

In the past few days we can add more items to the list, here, here and here.

When The Money Runs Out …

Now, it looks like the money (and ‘patient’) spigot is running dry as reported here.

So, let’s see how that’s working itself out for chief cook and bottle washer; biotech, SPBIO.

As usual, we’re looking at 3X, leveraged inverse fund LABD.

SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

Sharp reversal to the upside.

We’re nearing the end of today’s session (2:55 p.m., EST) and price action has been relentless.

Looking at the weekly chart of LABD, we see the trendline being confirmed.

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Weekly

A reasonable expectation for the next session(s) is some type of back testing of today’s action … although it’s not required.

Positioning

Yesterday’s downside LABD, action forced the complete exit of the main position that was (in-part) established during the downside thrust on February 2nd.

Overall profit gain on the series, was just over + 44%.

So, we had partial exit with +37%, main exit with +44%.

Later in the session yesterday, it became obvious the downside correction (from March 24th) may be nearing completion; the main position was re-established @ LABD 20.27 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s action puts that entry well in the green.

If this really is the next leg lower (higher for LABD), the expectation is for significantly increased volatility.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Beware … The Bond (Bull) Trap

April 2, 2023 By in Bonds, Neil McCoy-Ward, TLT, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

… Almost There

The 40-year bull market in bonds, is over.

Until price action proves otherwise, each increase in bond price (decrease in rates) is going to be viewed on this site, from a bearish perspective.

That’s not to say bond prices won’t go higher. Counter-trend moves can be trading opportunities.

However, with market blow-ups, internet and broker outages the norm (think, SVB), taking a position against the overall main trend, is not something you’ll typically find presented on this site (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, let’s look at where the long-bond proxy TLT, is at this juncture.

Long Bond TLT, Daily

The chart may be hard to read but it shows the entire move lower from the all-time high posted on March 9th, of 2020.

The magenta arrow and bar is the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace.

That’s where we’re focused on the chart below, an expanded version of the daily.

The potential set-up is obvious.

If price action breaks out of the (orange) wedge pattern into a measured move, it would retrace to the Fibonacci 23.6%, level, while at the same time, getting itself into Wyckoff Up-Thrust (reversal) position.

The up-thrust would be created if/when price action pushes above the known resistance area shown as the horizontal blue line.

The Danger Point®

If price action moves into the set-up area as shown, TLT would be at The Danger Point®

This is an area of instability.

At that point, it does not take much force to move the action in either direction, hence the name.

Strategy

As this post is being created, a quick check of ZeroHedge turns up this article, just released.

The article makes the statement as well, the bond bull market is over and uses the 10-yr Treasury to show the upside (yield) breakout.

The bottom line:

We’re in a highly dynamic environment where the typical money manager, financial advisor (as reported by Neil McCoy-Ward) finds themselves “clueless”.

If ever there was a point in time to focus exclusively on what price action is telling us using Wyckoff analysis, this is the time (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Sunday futures open in about six hours.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Market ‘Blow-Up’ … Already Here

March 30, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Hidden Behind The Curtain

It’s got that 2008, feel all over again.

This time, instead of, The subprime crisis is contained”, we have, ‘The banking crisis is over’.

Back then, as the market crashed into ’09, and then forced (manipulated) higher into 2010 and later, you intuitively knew the next time, there’s no saving it (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, here we are … at the ‘next time’.

However, this time around, it’s different … very different.

Coming out nearly every day, is the massive driver to the downside: Biotech. The updated list on that sector is provided at the end of this post.

For this update, we’re looking at the technical condition and more specifically, biotech leveraged inverse fund LABD.

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

We’re early in the session (11:03, a.m., EST) and we can see a reversal (if it holds) developing.

Today, is also Fibonacci Day 5, from the high set last Friday, the 24th.

Since today may be a pivot to the upside (biotech index lower), a potential continuation channel line is drawn in the chart below.

As mentioned in the last update, a retrace was probable and hence taking profits with a partial exit.

During the past four trading days, that position has been re-established at lower prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Insurmountable Fundamentals.

At some point unknown to us, the fundamentals will come into play.

The conditions are insurmountable … they can’t be ignored.

Said many times, this is the driving factor for the market(s) on a go-forward basis (not advice, not a recommendation).

Latest on The Biotech List

We’re going to start first with an article that surmises, the blow-up has already happened. That article is here. The report starts off with profanity; be advised.

Then, the biotech list; growing without bound:

Risk Of Cardiac Death Tripled For Young Women Following AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccination: Study

Bombshell Vax Analysis Finds $147 Billion In Economic Damage, Tens Of Millions Injured Or Disabled

CDC Found COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Signals Months Earlier Than Previously Known, Files Show

Three Years To Slow The Spread: COVID Hysteria & The Creation Of A Never-Ending Crisis

Biden Signs Bill To Declassify COVID Origins Intel

“I Couldn’t Remain Silent”: Physician Assistant Fired For Reporting COVID-19 Vaccine Adverse Events To VAERS

A Haunting Anniversary – ’15 Days To Slow The Spread’

Bonfire Of The COVID Vanities

Judge Rejects Request From Moderna, Moving Key COVID-19 Vaccine Case To Discovery

Betting All On Hegemony; Risking All, To Stave Off Ruin

CDC, FDA Respond To Florida Surgeon General’s COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Alert

WHO Chief Says Quest For COVID Origins Remains “Morally Imperative”

Italy 2020: Inside COVID’s Ground-Zero

The Forced Medication of All Citizens

COVID Conspiracy Theories Become Conspiracy Facts

Biden Admin Evaluating Mass Poultry Vaccination Amid Persistent Bird Flu Outbreak

Mother Sues Doctor Who Allegedly Administered COVID-19 Vaccines To Children Without Consent

COVID “Not Deadly Enough” To Justify Risk Of Fast-Track Vaccines, Chris Whitty Told UK Govt

Scott Atlas: America’s COVID Response Was Based On Lies

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (Short) Trade Nets + 37%

March 25, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Just Part of The Story

I once had an Uncle tell me:

“Percentages are for liars”

There may be doubters, haters, even money managers reading this and thinking that as well.

So, we’re going to get into it.

We’ll address the ‘liar’ claim, present the current state of biotech along with partial exit of the short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fundamentals: The Rats Scramble

Anyone with two-boosters rubbing together can see the rats scrambling; attempting to ‘normalize’ the abnormal.

For example, it’s now ‘standard procedure‘, after a Pilot’s ‘incapacitated’ (i.e., potentially drops dead) in the cockpit to roam about the cabin and ask if there’s anyone else available to fly the plane.

You can’t make this up. Nothing to see here.

Now, on to the charts.

First: Let’s Review

The chart re-printed below, is how it looked this past February 9th, as presented in this post. Recall, the actual reversal was identified to-the-day, in this post.

To go even a bit further, the Wyckoff penetration set-up was identified a day earlier, in this post.

SPBIO Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

Re-printed from February 9th.

Fast forward to now. This is how it looked on Friday.

From the chart above, the reversal is well underway.

Momentum has slowed a bit, hence the reason for the position to be reduced by about 13%.

If the decision to partial-exit was wrong and LABD heads immediately higher, there’s still a sizable position open.

If LABD spends the next several days contracting lower (as anticipated), there may be an opportunity to re-acquire the exited position at a lower level (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next chart shows the current trading channel.

It won’t take much sideways to down action to contact the right side. If or when that happens, we’ll see how price action behaves.

Where’s The Lie?

The spreadsheet below, is a modified version of what’s used by my firm. Note, it’s not the actual shares traded but a representation of that action.

The chart has been simplified with the initial entry (of this series) adjusted to 1,000 shares. Subsequent entries are adjusted by the same factor as the initial entry.

For the engineers, the data has been ‘normalized‘.

Working the numbers; we have $43,162.10 initial cost, $59,226.55 at the exit, yielding $16,064.45, which is just over a +37%, gain.

If there’s a lie in all of the above data, the analysis identifying the set-up, the reversal and subsequent trading actions with partial exit, I’m not sure where it is. 🙂

Note: The two left-most rows of ‘zeros’ in the chart are for commission charges. The spreadsheet was developed way back in the day when we had such things.

The right-most row of ‘zeros’ is open profit/loss.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … The ‘Bubble’ Wins

March 22, 2023 By in GLD, Sovereign Default, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

At Least, For Now

The rabid gold bulls … foiled again.

From the last update (emphasis added):

“Gold (GLD) either reverses from here or moves slightly higher to the 187.50-area before reversing.”

Immediate reversal is exactly what happened.

Actually, gold did go higher to the targeted (GLD 187.50) area in the overnight session; then reversed before the regular session open.

So, it did both of the forecasted moves. 🙂

The ‘Real’ Unemployment

By now, anyone with two pension-plans rubbing together, knows the numbers … that is, any ‘official’ numbers are complete propaganda (not advice, not a recommendation).

For example, the ‘real’ unemployment here, is likely closer to 25%, rather than the ‘official’ level below 4%.

Keep that in mind, as we continue on.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The GLD, weekly has the three major tops with the current (potential) one included.

The second chart (the daily) focuses on the reversal; in technical terms a ‘Wyckoff Up-Thrust‘.

Gold GLD, Daily

Right now, we’re at the test or The Danger Point®; it won’t take much force to move price action either way.

Pointing probabilities to the downside, we have a repeating pattern of ‘Spring to Up-Thrust’.

It’s an observed empirical phenomenon, markets tend to go from a Wyckoff ‘spring’, straight into an ‘up-thrust’.

The New ‘Paradigm’

Well, we probably to have a new paradigm but it’s not in gold (not advice, not a recommendation).

That new paradigm is what no one will discuss.

In the opinion of this author and contrary to what is presented here and here (remember our ‘unemployment’ numbers) we’re in a full-scale demand and population collapse.

The ‘inflation’ for possibly a large part, has been manufactured.

You can’t have over one-hundred food processing plants mysteriously burn down (bug, insect factories not affected) with millions upon millions of egg laying hens destroyed, cattle herd at 1962, lows and not affect the price.

For whatever reason, the mainstream has decided to reveal to the masses what’s been known for years to those who are awake.

Of special interest, Tucker Carlson interview, linked here.

Going Forward

Gold’s at The Danger Point®.

If it can’t make it higher from here on so much apparent and ‘rampant’ inflation, there’s a real risk of it being affected by some kind of Sovereign default … somewhere.

A default would potentially lead to a massive asset sell-off; including everything that’s not nailed down … i.e., gold.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Bubble or Breakout ?

March 19, 2023 By in Derecho, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

We’re About To Find Out

As this post is being created the Credit Suisse battle, rages on.

Recent updates are here and here.

Of course, it’s all planned chaos … but that’s a discussion for another time.

The apparent response from gold (GLD) over the past week, was to move sharply higher.

As expected, the gold bulls are in their brain-stem mania.

Once again. It’s a ‘new paradigm‘.

With that, let’s not forget the last time we had a ‘new paradigm’. Gold has not been higher, since.

Trading opportunity? … Maybe.

New ‘Paradigm’? … Probably, not.

Different, This Time?

As we’ll see below, there are potentially two outcomes for the price of gold (not advice, not a recommendation).

First: Gold (GLD) either reverses from here or moves slightly higher to the 187.50-area before reversing.

… OR …

Second: GLD, pushes higher, just shy of the 200.00, mark, while getting itself into a Wyckoff up-thrust condition.

The first chart shows the extremes as of Friday’s close (Sunday futures, yet to open).

Gold GLD, Weekly

Concerted effort to destroy (or pollute) the food supply began with the Derecho. That effort continues to this day.

Secondly, we have the ‘invasion’ of Ukraine. Note the GLD spike is lower than the Derecho.

Now, we have the banking ‘collapse’. Once again (so far), the upward spike is lower than previous.

Looking at the second chart, we see a Fibonacci projection to 50%, the GLD 183.77-level; exactly where GLD, closed on Friday.

Empirical observation over many years has revealed, if price action gets to a 50% projected level, it’s typically on its way to higher levels.

A Lower Peak

Even if GLD moves up to the 61.8% projection as shown, the GLD 187.50-area, it’s still below the prior ‘Invasion’ peak set at GLD 193.30.

If GLD, moves significantly past these levels, then it’s likely on to new, all-time-highs and a potential Wyckoff Up-Thrust (reversal) condition.

If it happens, we’ll address it at that time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279