‘Whistling Past The Graveyard’
Moderna (MRNA) appears likely to join the ranks of Carvana (CVNA), with a decline from all-time highs that’s well over -90%.
Even a ‘modest’ projection (as we’ll see below) puts the downside potential for MRNA, far below current levels.
Starting with the weekly chart, MRNA, has just barely retraced upward to an anemic 23.6%, before breaking to the downside.
Moderna MRNA, Weekly Chart
Zoom version below
The Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal), will be confirmed if/when MRNA pushes below last week’s low of 160.06
Projected Decline Over -90%
Unless it’s negated, the weak retrace (23.6%), tells us that MRNA, is probably just getting started to the downside.
Using a modest 1 : 1, projection from current levels, we have MRNA’s downside potential to the 45-area; representing a decline from all-time highs, of approximately -90.9%.
However, for such a weak equity (at this point), the decline also has the possibility to go a bit further, to a 1 : 1.382 projection (shown as the lower arrow).
Declining to the 27-area, would put MRNA, down a stiff -94.6%, from all-time highs.
If MRNA gets to those levels, that’s when the fun starts.
Recall, we’re using the Carvana Crash as the model, right?
Let’s hold that thought and go way back to October 17th, of last year. Reviewing the first bullet item of this post; some of which is repeated below, it said:
“Whenever a high-flyer darling stock changes course and reverses down in a big way, the lawsuits start.
‘Investors’ only know one direction … up.
They figure they’re so smart, any decision from them that does not work out, must be someone else’s fault.
Class Action for Moderna (with discovery) may be dead ahead.
Let’s start our stopwatch and see how long it takes for the first ‘Notice’.”
Getting back to Carvana (CVNA), it posted recent lows on July 14th this year. That was a decline (from all-time highs) of -95%.
Three weeks after that low, and just days ago on August 4th, we get ‘Notice of Class Action‘.
Tick, Tock …
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