Moderna “Throw-Over”

11:35 a.m., EST

Price action posts new weekly low

Now, back into the (wedge) range

In a situation that’s straight out of any typical trading text: ‘When a market goes into a throw-over and then enters back into the range, it’s a classical analysis sell signal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s where Moderna (MRNA) is now.

Moderna’s the ‘chief cook and bottle washer‘ for the world-wide kabuki theater. So, we’re using it as a proxy for the biotech sector as a whole.

Separately, biotech index IBB, is retracing but has not posted a new daily low.

Inverse SPBIO fund LABD, has formed an hourly reversal bar and looks to be forming a daily reversal bar. As of this update, it has yet to post a new daily high.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Moderna: Reversal Review

‘Reversal at hand’ said the prior update

Reversal still imminent?

MRNA has pushed above resistance on declining volume (shown above) . The next chart has MRNA in a terminating wedge pattern:

Price action this past week has just contacted the top portion of the wedge.

MRNA is the fifth-largest cap equity in the IBB index. Its market moves have a definite effect on that index.

IBB, shown below:

On Friday, the market eased back a little. Will it come back to test the resistance area next week?

There’s no doubt about the wide high volume bar. That day (last Monday) posted the highest daily volume in four years.

Wide high-volume areas are usually tested.

It just so happens, that wide area is below resistance.

To test the wide bar, price action would need to move below the resistance area. Doing so, would put a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ into play.

The next chart shows another resistance area not easily discernable:

Although somewhat hidden, there’s another resistance level that for now is putting a limit on the upward travel of IBB.

Summary:

MRNA’s at an extreme. The previous update linked to a site which shows insiders bailing out in the tens-of-millions of dollars.

The bond market, with its upside breakout is not confirming the ‘recovery’ narrative.

The dollar is reversing as well.

Gold and the miners have stalled; potentially reversing.

The narrative is shifting as the media (all controlled don’t forget) has decided on its sacrificial, e-mail lamb.

Don’t worry, nobody’s going to jail. It will just be another distraction to keep the mask wearing masses from getting prepared for the fall.

As a reminder, this is how they think; ‘Just doing the right thing’ Almost like ‘Just following orders’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Controlled Insanity

1:32 p.m., EST

It’s not ‘controlled opposition’

It’s controlled insanity

The masses (maybe all of us for that matter) have to be kept on edge just enough to be easily advanced to the next level of narrative.

Case in point, is this link.

It’s just one more piece of pre-programmed trash that’s attempting to control the public’s perception and direction.

“Globalists Losing Narrative”

Give me a break. Globalists aren’t losing anything. At least, not yet.

Markets & SPBIO

The overall markets are still hovering at all time highs; even as reports like this one, continue to show that everybody’s all-in on an unprecedented scale.

Evidently, they have no plan for down … where the real money’s made.

Moderna’s (MRNA) in its second day attempt to breakout higher; all the while, the index itself (SPBIO) continues to edge lower.

The 2-Hour chart of LABD below, shows a potential trend.

As with previous analysis comments, we’re looking for a trend the market itself, says is important:

It’s clear, the trend (above) has been repeated several times in LABD’s own price action.

LABD itself, tells us to pay attention.

The right side trend line might not look like much … but it’s rising at about +45,500%, on an annualized basis.

Positioning:

A break of this trend does not necessarily mean we’ll exit out Project Stimulus position; not advice, not a recommendation.

We’ve got the hard stop discussed previously at LABD 21.77; again, not advice, not a recommendation.

Summary:

While the retail traders/investors (the only direction they know is up) go collectively insane, we’re keeping under the radar and quietly maintaining the short positioning in biotech.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Creature From The Black Wuhan

1:04 p.m., EST

How long will this side-show last?

Once you’re awake, diversions like this one, have no effect.

Well, none almost, other than to be reminded the powers that be have absolute contempt for those that aren’t in their global club.

You have to wonder, what’s next? Maybe it’s time for the (fake, or real) alien invasion.

Maybe we’ll have a few more ‘planned’ cyber attacks … who knows?

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, it’s more than a bit interesting the biotech sector with its quarterly reversal, weak 23.6% retrace, and now continuing downside (so far), is not a major topic of discussion.

This morning, Moderna’s (MRNA) attempting a breakout. It won’t look so good if it can’t close higher for the day.

The last update showed MRNA, insiders bailing out.

SPBIO looks to be establishing or confirming a downside trend-line. More on that if/when there’s confirmation.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

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Moderna, Reversal At Hand

Insiders are bailing out. The jig is up.

Insider transaction data at this link.

MRNA has not been around long from a trading standpoint.

Long enough though, for a quick 1,000% price increase so insiders can bail with huge profits; leaving the bag to the uninformed retail ‘investor’.

SeekingAlpha:

A quick search of the proletariat at SeekingAlpha turns up several ‘analysis’ articles on MRNA.

Specific links won’t be provided.

We’re not going to provide links and justify the brainwashed, everybody’s thinking the same thing mentality that seems to permeate the site’s ‘presenters’.

Incredibly, the last three articles on MRNA do not contain a single price chart. It’s hard to say where a company is headed without consulting the truth; that is, price action.

Search MRNA if you like but be prepared to hold your nose.

To be fair, the comment section on the latest Moderna post does have a few frustrated souls attempting to get the word out.

It’s a futile effort to argue … no one can tell the difference and the sane person looks to be insane.

Spending time either creating articles for SeekingAlpha or commenting on such, is a waste. It’s a distraction (like attempting to locate the source of the ‘speck’) from the real work at hand.

However, it does provide a fantastic insight into the current group-think.

Biotech Sector:

The last update on SPBIO, had it testing and reversing at the Fibonacci 23.6%, level.

The index could continue lower without delay. Or, as is typical market behavior, it will attempt to re-establish some kind of upward move.

Updates on the sector to be forthcoming based on price action.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Only the Beginning?

Biotech vaporization could go thermonuclear.

That was a potential outcome proposed in this update, just seven days ago. 

On September 3rd, five days ago, Biotech (IBB) had its largest down-draft since June 11th.

Coincidentally, on that same day, this news was released concerning polio outbreaks in Africa.

Scroll down the article and a familiar name will appear.  It’s also the name that has provided significant backing for Moderna (MRNA).

Moderna has fallen off the radar.  MRNA, with no P/E and no yield.   What?  Nobody wants to stampede into the ‘cure’? 

The top of Moderna was identified in this post.  Along with a summary that enough of the public had been fleeced on the way up; it was time to get them on the way down.

MRNA is now down 34% from the top and down 23% from the last update. 

That might sound cruel or harsh to discuss the markets in this way.  It’s not nearly as bad as what Dr. Elder describes in his first book; Trading For A Living (summarizing):

‘The markets are like a medieval battlefield.  You enter with full knowledge you may not come back.  You are trying to kill your opponent, and him, you.

If you lose, all you own goes to him, including the wife and children.’

So, being part of the herd, stumbling around in the markets waiting to “fleeced” sounds way better.

The original premise of going short biotech was technical, fundamental and political. 

Technically biotech (IBB) is the only sector with a weekly MACD sell signal as identified in this post.  Fundamentally, we’re using Stockman’s assessment the sector is ‘bottled air’. 

Politically, the elites may be starting to fight amongst (and eat) themselves as evidenced by the news release linked above.

Anything can happen and IBB could bounce and move higher during the next session.  From a probability standpoint, the foundation of farce appears to be showing its true identity and origins.

The daily chart of IBB, is following (at this juncture) a Fibonacci projection. We’ve met and bounced off the 61.8% level. 

If the trend remains to the downside, the next projection is 100.00, then 161.80, at IBB levels (blue ovals) 120.00 and 110.00, respectively.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

Notes for the day … not in any particular order.

Lumber futures:   Prices up over 180% in five months.

2020-08-12_11-40-37-notesInterest rates are rising.  10-yr rates up.  Similar set-up as August, 1987?

Frustration with the mindless herd growing.

Biotech testing yesterday’s move lower.

Moderna (MRNA) has formed a wedge and is near a downside breakout.

Drunk and ‘working’ from home.

Internet censorship:  Oppenheimer Ranch Project no longer monetized.

Silver and gold, future test of new lows?  At time stamp 2:58, Sajad hints at same ‘testing the lows’ scenario as was posted with Silver Up, Then Down on July 25th.

 

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Mission Accomplished!

One day after Pump-n-Dump?, MRNA launches above and closes above resistance on record volume of 103-million shares.

Next day, price action closes below resistance and the trap is set.

2020-07-21_9-49-12-MRNA-Daily-3-bar-notesYesterday (Monday) at the open, MRNA gaps lower -7.4% and didn’t look back.  It closed down -12.83%.

Today, another gap lower.  Price action is hovering in what appears to be an attempt to stabilize.  The question is, stabilize for what?

It probably doesn’t matter as the professionals may have finished their directive.

That is:  establish long positions at low prices, generate news events to get the general public excited, continue to foment the price higher, go all out with maximum volume, exit the longs and establish the shorts.  After that, price action takes care of itself.

That’s the way it works 

Anything can happen and even more (bullish) volume can come from somewhere to drive the price to new highs.

With that in mind, there’s a possibility of an underside test of resistance.  Expectations are that such a test (should it occur) will fail and price action continue lower.

It’s likely we’ve seen the top of MRNA.

 

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.