Everyone talks a big game, wanting to trade like the next Jesse Livermore or James R. Keene.
To aspire and reach the performance level of the legendary, few know, it’s almost a requirement that several fortunes must be won and lost along the way.
That’s why Prechter said it years ago (paraphrasing), ‘It’s best to lose your first fortunes early; that way, you have time to recover.’
One very public and famous ‘recovery’ from a blown account, was Livermore’s trade during The Panic of 1907.
He was flat broke but sensed a big down move about to happen in the markets.
Legend has it, he pawned his car for $5,000; then, using that capital, shorted the market during the panic and profited over $1 million, covering shorts near the bottom.
That was then. Is there a now?
The short answer is yes. Huge moves (especially down) are still a potential.
Let’s take a look at how one opportunity presented itself.
Big Move Characteristics
There are at least three characteristics for a major move:
To demonstrate how that criteria can be used, we’re going to use one very recent example:
The Carvana Crash
From the all-time CVNA, high of 376.83, set on August 10th, 2021, to the most recent lows (thus far) posted July 14th, this year, was a collapse over -94.8%.
Carvana Has No P/E and maybe, never had one.
“If your biggest claim to fame is that you ‘invented’ a vending machine … you’ve got real problems.”
With that, and hovering at nearly $380/share, it’s reasonable to say CVNA, had reached an extreme.
To go along with the price and no earnings was the sentiment … literally off the charts.
Used cars, years old, selling above the original MSRP. It was a never-before-seen event.
From a trading standpoint, it does not matter the ‘reason’ for the sentiment; only that the extreme was there.
Now, the hard part. The ‘catalyst’.
Just what was it that pricked the bubble for CVNA?
For our example, it looks like it was one sub-par earnings release too many. At the time of release, there was a subtle change in the character of price action.
About one week after the earnings release in August 2021, CVNA, broke a long-term trendline and never looked back.
The above example has been highly simplified for brevity.
Even so, we can still use these criteria to look at other market conditions … other sectors.
As you may have guessed, one sector that meets at least two of the above conditions, is biotech, SPBIO.
The take-over candidate GBT, releases earnings on Monday (tomorrow).
Let’s see what happens next.
Charts by StockCharts
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279