Using the ‘Retrace’

March 31, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, GLW, GW-26-09, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-01, SOXX 2 Comments

Who’s Retracing The Least?

Today was a sharply higher in the SOXX, with 50% retrace (from the 3/25, high) on both a close and print basis.

The short trade, SOXS-26-01, was stopped-out (with profit) as yesterdays’ low was hit.

Looking at price action, Corning GLW, had ‘ease-of-movement’ lower yesterday, only partially retraced today (unlike SOXX and NVDA, for example).

In addition, the retrace was 38.2%, on both a print and close basis (lower than SOXX).

Repositioned short, as GLW-26-09, with stop at Monday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

2 responses

  1. If I could bug you some more, and this is off topic to corning, but I really want to blab about this. I was listening to quinn and felix on forward guidance and they claim that asian markets increased their margin debt by adding puts to their books. They claim that this is a hedge for their longs which have gotten wacked the past few weeks. But instead of taking down exposure they’re just gonna add puts. Felix and quinn argued that the “path of most pain” moving forward is a stock market that goes down very slowly so the options decay and the longs go nowhere. I find the logic compelling but didn’t verify anything they said.

    Add to that, you have that prime book data point thing which claims that short exposure is very high here.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Thanks,

      Any additional information is welcome. On topic or not.

      From reading your post, I’m taking it that Asian markets are ‘selling’ puts. Is that right? If the decay is slow, then the puts have a chance of expiring worthless while the seller keeps the premium.

      As for the SOXX, GLW, and NVDA, one pushed through stop levels and the other, NVDA (in the post I’m about to make) has hit a downtrend line.

      A slow decay lower, is actually a good thing for the leveraged inverse funds. As exciting as swift downside action is, it’s also inefficient as was seen with SOXS yesterday, pushing below previous day’s levels before the SOXX pushed above its own levels.

      Everyone has to find their own path. As Dr Elder has said ‘There are many ways to make money in the markets … and even more ways to lose it.’ 🙂

      For me, I’m continuing to work short side opportunities … unless it’s a long position in one of the food commodities.

      Best regards,

      Paul

      Liked by 1 person