Category Archives: SOXS

SOXX … Close, But No Cigar

May 13, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX Leave a comment

Just Short of All-Time Highs

Another data-point.

The 15-minute chart shows SOXX attempted to recover from yesterday’s whack; trying to post a new all-time high.

It didn’t happen.

When looking at the 4-Hour chart (not shown), today’s thrust energy (Force Index) is nearly missing altogether (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Change of Character

May 12, 2026 By in Wyckoff, SOXX, SOXS, Dr. Elder, Semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence, SOXS-26-03 Leave a comment

Like a Chameleon

Several days ago, a Wyckoff characteristic was identified, ‘shortening of the thrust’, indicating the potential end of a move, link here.

Now, we have a ‘change of character’, another reversal potential.

As a reminder, we’re dealing with probabilities; each nuance adding to the next. This is not a forecast.

Semiconductors SOXX, 4-Hour

The chart shows a series of upward thrusts, identified by Elder’s Force Index (blue arrows), with a corresponding market move, the black arrows.

Question:

Before rushing to the answer below, what’s different about the last blue/black arrow pair on the far-right side?

Answer:

On every single arrow pair except the far right, price action ends higher than the previous 4-Hour bar.

Check with your own chart package to see if this isn’t true.

On the last arrow pair, the close of the 4-Hour bar is below the previous 4-Hour high.

The SOXX has changed character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Goes ‘Parabolic’

May 11, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX Leave a comment

We’ve Seen This Movie Before …

Two days ago, was this comment:

“This move has gone parabolic, very much like the silver top and collapse from my perspective.”

Now, today, we have this, link here.

With that, let’s move on to the chart.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

Closing price action has gone (almost) as far as it can and still maintain ‘shortened thrust’ structure (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Semiconductors Inch Higher

April 6, 2026 By in AMD, AMD-26-01, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-02, SOXX, Up-Thrust

Using The Grind

Today’s buoyancy in the semiconductor sector, SOXX, gave an opportunity to assess the situation.

The decision was made to exit the short on the sector itself (via SOXS), and initiate individual short positions based on price action.

Some equities are stronger, some weaker; AMD is one of the latter.

With that said, AMD, sold short @ 220.18, as AMD-26-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Close for the session just happened to be exactly at 220.18, putting the trade at break-even.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … ‘Gut Punch’

April 2, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-02, SOXX

‘Threatening’ Price Action

As of this post (11:31 a.m., EST) SOXX, price action is threatening to print a new daily high.

No matter what direction the market’s going to decide, new bull move or beginning of the bear, it will not let anyone get aboard comfortably.

To use a quote from yesterday:

“This is what markets do”

If this ‘last chance’ at posting a new high fails and the SOXX retreats from here, it’s possible the bulls have shown exhaustion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Once again, we’re at The Danger Point®, where the risk on a short-trade, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Using the ‘Retrace’

March 31, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, GLW, GW-26-09, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-01, SOXX 2 Comments

Who’s Retracing The Least?

Today was a sharply higher in the SOXX, with 50% retrace (from the 3/25, high) on both a close and print basis.

The short trade, SOXS-26-01, was stopped-out (with profit) as yesterdays’ low was hit.

Looking at price action, Corning GLW, had ‘ease-of-movement’ lower yesterday, only partially retraced today (unlike SOXX and NVDA, for example).

In addition, the retrace was 38.2%, on both a print and close basis (lower than SOXX).

Repositioned short, as GLW-26-09, with stop at Monday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Blip and Dip

March 30, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-01, SOXX 2 Comments

Then, There’s The Channel

The last update said ‘normal’ market behavior, is for some kind of upward test (not advice, not a recommendation).

Well, this morning’s ‘blip’, could be it.

Adding some intrigue, the attached chart, NVDA on a weekly basis.

If we count all-time highs as Fibonacci Week 1, then we see (aggressively), pivoting lower into a trend and potential channel on Week 21.

This is scary business.

It implies, the ‘demand’ side of this channel (left blue line), is a long way away to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Breakout … SOXX

March 26, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-01, SOXX, SOXX-26-01

Will The Gap Be Filled?

The SOXX opened gap-down and has continued lower during the early session.

Some gaps are never filled.

The chart from yesterday’s post has been updated with today’s action so far.

It’s clear, the market has respected the Fibonacci sequence.

Now that it’s obvious, it’s likely to morph into something else (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Based on where we are in this historic market bubble (i.e., continuing lower), probabilities for retrace and gap-fill at this point, are low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short Trade SOXX-26-01

When an attempt was made to sell short SOXX, increase position size, the broker indicated “no additional shares available”.

That short was quickly covered (with profit) and another short opened via 3X inverse fund SOXS, as SOXS-26-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trading leveraged inverse funds on a medium-term basis requires more active monitoring, so one does not get whacked with an adverse move. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Monday’s Damage Assessment

October 13, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Bert Dohmen, BIS, DRIP, DRV, DUST, DXD, FAZ, IBB, JDST, LABD, LABD-25-13, Positions, QID, SDS, SOXS, SPBIO, TZA, XBI

Where’s The Crash?

The YouTube weekend ‘consensus’ was for a Monday morning massacre.

So, where is it?

Bert Dohmen, said it best in this interview, (paraphrasing), ‘If everybody agrees with our analysis, then we have to get a new analysis’.

Monday’s First 15-Minutes

After the first 15-minutes of trade, an assessment was made on the ‘Leveraged Inverse Funds’.

The point being, since this site’s maintaining a short position in biotech (via LABD), how did it fare when compared to the other funds?

After the first 15-minutes of trade, the table at left shows all inverse funds being tracked, in the red, some painfully so (like SOXS, JDST, DUST).

All red, except for the two biotech’s, LABD and BIS.

Those two funds are short vehicles for biotech XBI and IBB, respectively.

The XBI index has not (yet) made a new daily low.

Conversely, the inverse fund LABD, has not made a new daily high.

With that said, the stop on LABD-25-13, remains at last Friday’s low of 33.17 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bubble’ & The ‘Beast’

September 26, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, BIS, IBB, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 3 Comments

Downside For Both?

The ‘bubble’ is obvious, Artificial Intelligence.

The ‘beast’, not so much, but revealed below.

The last update, presented a case for the SOXX top, a proxy for A.I.

Note: If the SOXX, has made its final high, it’s still very early in the reversal:

Wyckoff said a century ago, ‘It’s as if the weight of a feather can move the market in either direction’.

That’s where we are now.

For biotech (IBB, XBI), different forces are at work.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

The 38.2%, retrace from 9/19 high, to 9/25 low, is in the vicinity of 140.90 (magenta dashed line).

Fridays are typically biased to the upside.

There’s a possibility IBB, may test (upward) throughout the session, heading to (at or near) 38%, by the end of the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279