While Delays Mount
While Ox Talks reports on mounting delays in the A.I. ‘narrative’, link here, chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, appears ready to breakdown out of a wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).
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Volume Contracts
In the early after-hours session (7:25 p.m., EST), the SOXX continues to hover at the right side down-trend line.
It’s been a steady, almost imperceptible grind lower over the past five sessions.
However, that right side line is declining at around -95%, annualized (not advice, not a recommendation).
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Demarcation Line
In the realm of the surreal, we have this.
Ox Talks gives an update on the latest psychosis concerning funding related to A.I.
All-of-a-sudden, for the first time in history, semiconductors, the chips themselves, are ‘investible assets’; time stamp: 3:08, in the link (not advice, not a recommendation).
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Demand Evaporating?
Today was supposed to be the day when semis continued their short squeeze grind higher.
It didn’t happen.
Instead, we had various reversal patterns and (down) trendline confirmations.
The trend, channel, and minor wedge on MU, is a good example (not advice, not a recommendation).
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Ruh, Roh Moment
While the Dow, S&P, Qs and the SOXX all seem ready to continue higher, KKR, is absent from the party.
There’s an up-thrust reversal from resistance, then decline to minor support (dashed grey line).
Volume is increasing as price action nears that level.
The suggestion then, is the support will fail (not advice, not a recommendation).
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Volume Contracts
When volume drops off over 50% from one session to the next, it’s significant.
Yesterday’s update was unsure whether AMD was headed straight down, going to test, or morph into something else.
Looking at the chart, so far it’s a test (not advice, not a recommendation).
We’ll find out tomorrow, if that test is complete.
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It’s The ‘Fundamentals’ … Not
AMD is not the only ticker with a perfect, or near-perfect Fibonacci count; Jabil (JBL) has one as well (not advice, not a recommendation).
For JBL, from the all-time highs to today’s nascent reversal, is a Fibonacci 34 Days.
Seen in the AMD chart, its Fibonacci counts thus far, indicate probability for inflection points.
As is typical with this type of analysis, as soon as it’s obvious, it morphs into something else.
The question for AMD: Will it post straight down from here, a test, then down, a recovery higher, or something else?
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FOMO
According to the finical press, it was mass screaming hysteria as stocks ‘short squeezed’ to all-time highs, link here.
However, one sector noticeably absent from the crazed party, were the semiconductors.
In fact, during the past month or so, the SOXX has gone from market leader to laggard (not advice, not a recommendation).
As we’ll see below, there’s also an interesting pattern; an a-b-c correction to a minor up-thrust.
Semiconductors SOXX, Daily
Note the inflection points at Days 1 and 3, with today, a potential inflection, at Day 5.
This price action is typical of a move to higher levels, potentially the top of the range and farther.
However, if the SOXX stalls at this point and reverses, it indicates severe weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).
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Higher or Lower?
ON Semiconductor, is scheduled to report after-hours on Monday, link here.
If the overall sector (SOXX) is still continuing an upside squeeze, then ON could break higher on the earnings (not advice, not a recommendation).
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Similar to the SOXX?
We just saw what happened to the SOXX when volume increased at support, link here.
From that update:
“Instead of volume contracting on the test (sellers backing away), it has increased (blue arrow).”
Next session, SOXX broke lower and kept on going.
Now, Jabil closed near support; volume increased 43.2% over the prior session.
It’s also possible, price action is posting a trading channel Fibonacci 13-Days wide (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
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