Category Archives: Semiconductors

A.I. Bubble … Deflating

November 6, 2026 By in APP, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-20, SOXX Leave a comment

In The channel

The segment of price action at left, shows the SOXX maintaining a downward trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Channels can remain active for longer than expected.

One recent example is Applovin (APP).

It just broke out of a down-channel that was in-effect for five months.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … In The Channel

November 4, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-20, SOXX Leave a comment

Testing Resistance

If we’ve just witnessed the end of the A.I. bubble, the long-awaited unwind has now begun (not advice, not a recommendation).

According to ‘bubble rules’, that unwind takes the sector, primarily the SOXX, all the way back to where the mania began.

Exactly where that level might be, and how long it’s going to take, is the subject for another update … or a series of updates.

Moving on to the chart.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

The attempt to close the gap discussed in this update, only got as far as testing the underside of resistance.

At the time of this post, 8:28 p.m., EST, the SOXX continues to move lower and further away from the ‘test’ area.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … A Gap, Too Far?

November 3, 2026 By in AMD, Artificial Intelligence, AVGO, MU, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-20, SOXX, TSM Leave a comment

AMD, Fails to Boost

At the time of this post, 7:43 p.m., EST, the effect of AMD’s earnings release appears to be fading (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fading not only for AMD, but for those that rose higher in sympathy: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, and MU, have all given up their sympathetic gains.

Depending on what happens overnight, the SOXX may have re-established its trading channel.

If so, that will be discussed in tomorrow’s update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Below ‘July Lows’

November 2, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Edward Dowd, Semiconductors, SOXX 1 Comment

Is It Over?

Today was follow-through from last Friday’s -8.24%, pummeling.

According to Ed Dowd, time stamp 14:50, link here, that’s the beginning of the end for the A.I. bubble (not advice, not a reocmmendation).

However, from the chart we see that today’s thrust lower had less volume, less down travel, and much less down energy.

With those conditions in place, the huge gap (for potential fill) is not that far away (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Top 1%

November 1, 2026 By in AAPL, AMZN, Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, INTC, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, The Top 1% Leave a comment

Ed Dowd Interview

There’s no government ‘bail-out’ for the A.I. bubble.

That’s the assessment from Ed Dowd during this interview, link here.

Just three days ago, that same question was discussed in the comments section, here.

The following are (approximate) time stamps for topics covered:

2:15: Bogus employment numbers

4:44: Amazon slowdown

5:20: Trump pumping Intel

5:45: Demand destruction

5:50: AAPL earnings Monday

6:40: Top 10% supporting the economy

6:50: Housing is dead

7:30: Concentration of wealth

8:20: Construction on Data Centers

8:28: Only healthcare is growing (could it be…)

10:00: Semis 19% of S&P 500

12:50: Nvidia

14:00: Intel

15:20: Semis and the July ‘low’

15:25: Semis, leading indicator

25:20: A.I. Bailout

26:14: Congress legislation, ‘No bailout’

27:00: Fed won’t bailout tech

28:45: Insurance bailout?

30:30: Insurance disaster

32:20: Watch the CCC bonds

33:10: Nvidia will ‘miss’

46:08: Gold and risk-off

46:40: Gold to $10,000 by 2030

47:00: Deflationary ‘scare’

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Implodes

October 30, 2026 By in INTC, Semiconductors, SOXX Leave a comment

Capitulation or Kick-Off?

The SOXX was down hard on heavy volume, led by one of the laggards, Intel.

Meanwhile, we see the SOXX net distance (down) is either constant, or slowing.

Volume could be a ‘kick-off’ to lower levels, or a temporary ‘capitulation’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the massive gap

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Nears (retrace) Target

October 27, 2026 By in Semiconductors, SOXX

At Resistance

The last update on the SOXX, had this:

“However, at this juncture, a retrace to 38%, (and gap-fill) seems more probable.”

The chart shows SOXX, just shy of the 38.2% level.

At the close today, we’re at established resistance.

A slight retrace down (gathering steam) is normal before penetrating resistance to the upside, if that happens (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

SOXX (upside) Targets

October 23, 2026 By in Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-14, SOXX 1 Comment

Energy Dissipates

Today was supposed to be downside continuation if the trading channel was to remain in effect.

It didn’t happen

As the downside energy appeared to dissipate during the session, short trade SOXS-26-14, was closed with profit at +15.14% (not advice, not a recommendation).

The blue arrow shows Force Index losing steam to the downside.

The magenta arrow shows price action pushing through the trading channel.

Of course, more selling can come in late Sunday and into the Monday open.

However, at this juncture, a retrace to 38%, (and gap-fill) seems more probable (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Gap-n-Go

October 22, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, AZO, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-14, SOXX, Transportation

Successive Gaps

The SOXX, posting a series of gaps lower.

At this point, it does not look like they’ll be filled anytime soon.

One can never be certain; nearly five months after AutoZone created a massive gap, it’s being filled as we speak (not advice, not a recommendation).

The channel lines on the chart are drawn to capture the majority of the price action.

If this is the ‘correct’ channel, yesterday’s price action was an attempt to push out that was quickly negated.

We’ve seen this type of ‘push-n-back’ market behavior before, in biotech XBI, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Lam Research Implodes

October 21, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Livermore, LRCX, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-14, SOXX 2 Comments

Takes The SOXX, With It

‘Surprises, tend to come in the direction of trend’.

The tenet, taken from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, showing us the direction of trend for LRCX and the overall semiconductor index, is lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the after-hours, LRCX is down hard and the SOXX has taken a hit as well.

So, let’s look at what the SOXX is telling us.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily Close

For about ten trading days, the SOXX moved steadily lower along the ‘demand’ line shown.

Then, it paused for several days with sideways, corrective action.

Now, with the index likely to open lower, next session, the question is, are we at the ‘supply’ side?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279