Category Archives: Semiconductors

Texas Instruments … Lower?

May 31, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, AVGO, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-05, SOXX, TXN Leave a comment

Below Resistance

With all eyes on Broadcom’s earnings release scheduled for Wednesday, other markets in the sector are giving clues we may be near a reversal (not advice not a recommendation).

One of those, is Texas Instruments.

As can be seen, TXN has failed to move above resistance.

The question for Monday; will TXN quietly retrace upward to test the underside?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Broadcom Breakout

May 30, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, AVGO, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-05, SOXX Leave a comment

Terminating Wedge

Broadcom is No. 3, in market cap within the SOXX.

Of those top three, it’s the only one in (a technical) position to move significantly higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, as the chart shows, that ‘higher’ is in the context of a terminating wedge pattern.

Patterns can fail or morph into some other type of event.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Top ‘Coincidences’

May 29, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-05, SOXX Leave a comment

Fibonacci, Weekly & Daily

Neuroplasticity:

In basic terms: The brain’s ability to be flexible, re-wire neural connections, perform ‘thought experiments’

With that said, let’s look at the weekly chart of the SOXX.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

First, the unmarked chart.

We’re searching for Fibonacci correlations.

Nothing seems to jump out.

Looking at the chart and following the ‘rules’, leads us to counting from (any) lows to highs (or vice versa), looking for a sequence.

We get some for a while, but then, they diffuse into nothingness.

However, when performing a thought experiment (i.e., don’t follow the rules), we have this:

From the breakout gap, to what could be the exhaustion gap, is a Fibonacci 55-Weeks (not advice, not a recommendation).

Daily Correlation

When looking at the daily chart (not shown), there’s a Fibonacci correlation as well.

From the breakout gap of Wednesday April 8th, to the (potential) exhaustion gap on Tuesday May 26, is Fibonacci 34 days (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … ‘Exhaustion’ Gap?

May 27, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-05, SOXX, Thoughtful Money Leave a comment

We’ll Know Soon

It was an ‘outside-down’ day for the SOXX.

Even with that, we still have what looks like an exhaustion gap, yet to be filled (chart below).

Taking the entire pre-market and after-market sessions into account, as of this post (5:45 p.m., EST), the SOXX has retraced to near the 38% level (not advice, not a recommendaiton).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

As Ed Dowd said in a recent interview:

‘Whenever this (A.I., semiconductor)) unwind happens, it’s going to be quick.’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Like, Never Before’

May 24, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Ed Dowd, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-04, SOXX, SPY, Thoughtful Money, TLT Leave a comment

Unprecedented

The market rally’s unprecedented; like never before.

Will it be the same on the way down? (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adam Taggart says in the latest Ed Dowd interview:

‘Vertical moves don’t correct by going sideways’

Some Highlights

The entire interview is worth the time. However, some excerpts are below. Time stamps are in (parentheses).

Market summary (2:20)

Double ordering of inventory (8:28)

Helium shortage (9:00)

The beginning of the end (9:30)

Bonds, long term lows (10:48)

All you need is one company to slow ordering (13:30)

‘You don’t crash from tops’ (14:18)

‘I’ve never seen anything like this’ (14:40)

Price washout, sets up opportunities (19:30)

A.I. creating more problems than it solves (43:20)

Nvidia to retrace 80% – 90% (45:30)

This is my third rodeo … it’s all echoing (47:25)

‘It’s going to be fast’ (48:07)

Oil breakout (49:15)

Gold, source of liquidity (59:20)

Buffett’s at 40% cash (1:01:00)

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Diving into Details

May 23, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Dr. Elder, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-04, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Hourly Numbers

When you add it all up, if the SOXX was going to reverse from all-time highs into a sustained correction, Friday’s close would be a good place to start (not advice, not a recommendation).

Prior updates have been consistent with the (Wyckoff) premise, upward thrusts are covering less net distance.

SOXX Hourly Details

First, the markets are fractal.

We see the same repeating pattern of ‘spring to up-thrust’, on the hourly as on longer timeframes.

Second, tops and bottoms are different.

The characteristic of the ‘spring’ bottom and the ‘up-thrust’ top are how markets behave.

Bottoms, ruled by fear, typically sharp and well defined.

Tops, ruled by hope, typically wide and rounded.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

The top shown above, is what David Weis used to call, The Danger Point®, where risk (cost) of being wrong (on a short, in this case), is least.

In his video, he points out this type of action, saying ‘the market could just keep on going … so what’.

His meaning was, it’s the point where there’s instability, therefore, potential for reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

For those who don’t have that video, it is timeless wisdom, still available here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … All-Time Highs

May 22, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-04, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

And Then?

For the past two weeks, the SOXX has been discussed within the context of ‘shortening of the thrust’.

That’s a Wyckoff adage:

‘When a move is nearing its end, the amount of net progress (between waves) will become shorter’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Even though the past four trading days have closed higher, SOXX net upward progress, is still getting shorter.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

Next update, we’ll move closer-in to the hourly.

That timeframe shows a clear ‘spring to up-thrust’ set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Off The Cliff?

May 15, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX, SPY

Won’t Know, ’till Monday

First, there was ‘shortening of the thrust’, link here.

Then, it was ‘SOXX goes parabolic’, link here.

After that, it was ‘change of character’, link here.

On the heels of that, ‘no new highs’, link here.

Finally, today, we have a gap-down open, new daily low and closing low.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

It’s important to note, the S&P (SPY) also posted a gap down, close down for the day.

A gap down from all-time highs.

Of course, it could all be much ado about nothing (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Close, But No Cigar

May 13, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX 1 Comment

Just Short of All-Time Highs

Another data-point.

The 15-minute chart shows SOXX attempted to recover from yesterday’s whack; trying to post a new all-time high.

It didn’t happen.

When looking at the 4-Hour chart (not shown), today’s thrust energy (Force Index) is nearly missing altogether (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Change of Character

May 12, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Like a Chameleon

Several days ago, a Wyckoff characteristic was identified, ‘shortening of the thrust’, indicating the potential end of a move, link here.

Now, we have a ‘change of character’, another reversal potential.

As a reminder, we’re dealing with probabilities; each nuance adding to the next. This is not a forecast.

Semiconductors SOXX, 4-Hour

The chart shows a series of upward thrusts, identified by Elder’s Force Index (blue arrows), with a corresponding market move, the black arrows.

Question:

Before rushing to the answer below, what’s different about the last blue/black arrow pair on the far-right side?

Answer:

On every single arrow pair except the far right, price action ends higher than the previous 4-Hour bar.

Check with your own chart package to see if this isn’t true.

On the last arrow pair, the close of the 4-Hour bar is below the previous 4-Hour high.

The SOXX has changed character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279