Category Archives: Semiconductors

SOXX (upside) Targets

October 23, 2026 By in Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-14, SOXX Leave a comment

Energy Dissipates

Today was supposed to be downside continuation if the trading channel was to remain in effect.

It didn’t happen

As the downside energy appeared to dissipate during the session, short trade SOXS-26-14, was closed with profit at +15.14% (not advice, not a recommendation).

The blue arrow shows Force Index losing steam to the downside.

The magenta arrow shows price action pushing through the trading channel.

Of course, more selling can come in late Sunday and into the Monday open.

However, at this juncture, a retrace to 38%, (and gap-fill) seems more probable (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Gap-n-Go

October 22, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, AZO, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-14, SOXX, Transportation Leave a comment

Successive Gaps

The SOXX, posting a series of gaps lower.

At this point, it does not look like they’ll be filled anytime soon.

One can never be certain; nearly five months after AutoZone created a massive gap, it’s being filled as we speak (not advice, not a recommendation).

The channel lines on the chart are drawn to capture the majority of the price action.

If this is the ‘correct’ channel, yesterday’s price action was an attempt to push out that was quickly negated.

We’ve seen this type of ‘push-n-back’ market behavior before, in biotech XBI, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Lam Research Implodes

October 21, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Livermore, LRCX, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-14, SOXX 2 Comments

Takes The SOXX, With It

‘Surprises, tend to come in the direction of trend’.

The tenet, taken from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, showing us the direction of trend for LRCX and the overall semiconductor index, is lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the after-hours, LRCX is down hard and the SOXX has taken a hit as well.

So, let’s look at what the SOXX is telling us.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily Close

For about ten trading days, the SOXX moved steadily lower along the ‘demand’ line shown.

Then, it paused for several days with sideways, corrective action.

Now, with the index likely to open lower, next session, the question is, are we at the ‘supply’ side?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Qualcomm Channel

October 13, 2026 By in QCOM, Semiconductors Leave a comment

Reverse Trendline

The segment at left, shows the ‘reverse trendline’ technique in action.

The left side trendline was drawn first (days ago), then brought forward to the most recent high (at No. 1).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX at Support

October 11, 2026 By in NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX, TSM, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

What’s Next?

Last week, both Nvidia and Taiwan Semi, the two largest caps in the sector, reversed from their all-time highs.

The SOXX chart shows the effect of that action.

Now, we’re at a support level (dashed line).

‘Normal’ market behavior is to come back for a test (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

S&P … Almost ‘There’

October 3, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, AZO, Biotech, BKNG, DUOL, HD, KMX, LOW, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, XBI, XBI-26-17

‘There’, is a new All-Time High

Two weeks ago, was this update showing the (net) upward progress of the S&P was slowing (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, two days later was this, presenting how the index might make it to another high.

Now, the SPY chart is mimicking the longer timeframe by having successive shorter thrusts (magenta arrows).

At this point it’s a toss-up but does it really matter?

Meaning, if the downside is being worked (shorted), large numbers of tickers are already in essentially free-fall: AZO, BKNG, DUOL, HD, KMX, LOW; way below their all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: All have been covered at some point, on this site.

One sector that’s not cracked (yet) but seems to be building up immense pressure, is biotech.

Barring any unforeseen event, XBI is covered next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Did Nvidia, Just Reverse?

September 23, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, NVDA-26-02, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

A Test, Before Down?

The all-time high is at the far left of the chart.

Then, we have a resistance level, (blue lines), penetrated at ‘1‘.

Today’s red candle is Day 13 from ‘1‘, or Day 8 from the most recent daily lows.

From a Wyckoff perspective, we could look at Point 1, as an up-thrust, followed by ‘sign-of-supply’, and then a test.

Today’s new daily low at Fibonacci Day 8, or Day 13, may help us point odds to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Market Highs, Weeks, Months Ago

September 18, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, House of El - AI, Nasdaq, Ox Talks, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, SPY, XBI, XBI-26-11, XBI-26-12

Dow, S&P, Qs Et al.

The Dow (DIA) all-time highs were on August 5th, the S&P (SPY) on August 13th, the Qs (QQQ), way back on June 3rd; Semiconductors (SOXX), June 22nd, and the list goes on.

We have updates by the day, if not the hour, like this, this, and this, letting us know in real-time, the air’s coming out of the bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, ‘gentlemen, start your engines‘ 🙂

Pick your market

Biotech XBI, Daily

The chart has an added bonus, showing the potential trading channel.

Trade Action: Yesterday, XBI-26-11, was exited at break even, then re-established (short) as XBI-26-12, and well-in-the-green by the close (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Wedge Breakdown

September 10, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors

While Delays Mount

While Ox Talks reports on mounting delays in the A.I. ‘narrative’, link here, chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, appears ready to breakdown out of a wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX at (down) Trend

September 2, 2026 By in Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX

Volume Contracts

In the early after-hours session (7:25 p.m., EST), the SOXX continues to hover at the right side down-trend line.

It’s been a steady, almost imperceptible grind lower over the past five sessions.

However, that right side line is declining at around -95%, annualized (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279