Category Archives: Semiconductors

Change of Character

May 12, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Like a Chameleon

Several days ago, a Wyckoff characteristic was identified, ‘shortening of the thrust’, indicating the potential end of a move, link here.

Now, we have a ‘change of character’, another reversal potential.

As a reminder, we’re dealing with probabilities; each nuance adding to the next. This is not a forecast.

Semiconductors SOXX, 4-Hour

The chart shows a series of upward thrusts, identified by Elder’s Force Index (blue arrows), with a corresponding market move, the black arrows.

Question:

Before rushing to the answer below, what’s different about the last blue/black arrow pair on the far-right side?

Answer:

On every single arrow pair except the far right, price action ends higher than the previous 4-Hour bar.

Check with your own chart package to see if this isn’t true.

On the last arrow pair, the close of the 4-Hour bar is below the previous 4-Hour high.

The SOXX has changed character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Goes ‘Parabolic’

May 11, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX Leave a comment

We’ve Seen This Movie Before …

Two days ago, was this comment:

“This move has gone parabolic, very much like the silver top and collapse from my perspective.”

Now, today, we have this, link here.

With that, let’s move on to the chart.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

Closing price action has gone (almost) as far as it can and still maintain ‘shortened thrust’ structure (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, Net (up) Slows

May 9, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff 4 Comments

Wyckoff Concept

A Wyckoff tenet concerning directional moves, is ‘shortening of the thrust’.

As a move nears its end, net upward progress between thrusts, shortens.

On a closing basis, we see the SOXX launching ever higher but net progress after pullbacks, is getting shorter (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

ENTG, Target, and Reversal

April 30, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, ENTG, Linda Raschke, Semiconductors Leave a comment

Technical Analysis

Didn’t we just hear about some ‘gazillionaire’ complaining that technical analysis doesn’t work anymore, link here.

Looking at the chart; It’s a time tested, ‘still working’ analysis of a wedge breakout.

Then, we have today’s session which was decidedly lower on the earnings release.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Selling Short, TXN

April 10, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Semiconductors, TXN, TXN-26-08, Up-Thrust

A Generational Top?

It almost goes without saying, market events are taking place on a massive scale.

Ed Dowd, has said repeatedly in his interviews:

‘When it’s all said and done, I expect Nvidia to be down 80% to 90%’ (not advice not a recommendation).

However, there are others besides Nvidia, with significant downside potential.

Case in point, Texas Instruments.

There’ve been several recent updates on TXN. The most significant one, linked here.

It’s possible, right now, today, is a test of the all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Texas Instruments TXN, Weekly

One thing can be said with some certainty, we’re at The Danger Point®, where risk on a short is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the February update shows, it’s been 26-years since the other massive upward spike in Force Index.

Last time that happened, TXN imploded 87% (not advice, to a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Intel … After The Open

April 8, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, INTC, INTC-26-03, NVDA, NVDA-26-01, Semiconductors, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Set-Up & Go

The set-up in Intel (INTC) is more than just ‘selling the rip’.

We have a repeating pattern with a high expectation.

Meaning, the probabilities of a reversal to the downside with this type of set-up is greater than 50% chance (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this update (11:10 a.m., EST) INTC has decisively penetrated support and is now hovering at that level.

What’s missing in the way of confirmation is either a reversal bar today, or a new daily low during tomorrow’s session.

Intel INTC, Daily

With the mega-cap Nvidia almost instantly retracing its opening highs, it may be leading the pack lower.

If that’s the case, the entire sector is at risk of following NVDA to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Intel ‘Set-Up’

April 8, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, INTC, Semiconductors, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Repeating Pattern

If intel (INTC) opens at the level shown (magenta arrow), it’s going to post a new daily high, above January 22nd high.

Doing that, would put INTC in ‘up-thrust‘ position (not advice not a recommendation).

Intel INTC, Daily

Today’s open will be Fibonacci 55-Days (-2) from the January 22nd high.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … after-hours

April 7, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, NVDA-26-01, Semiconductors, ZeroHedge

Fibonacci Levels

The markets are higher in the after-hours session on news of a potential cease-fire, link here.

Nvidia’s no exception.

However, as the chart shows, it’s right at a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace (as of 7:13 p.m., EST).

If this level holds, or if NVDA moves higher, tomorrow’s session is likely to be quite interesting (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Semiconductors Inch Higher

April 6, 2026 By in AMD, AMD-26-01, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-02, SOXX, Up-Thrust

Using The Grind

Today’s buoyancy in the semiconductor sector, SOXX, gave an opportunity to assess the situation.

The decision was made to exit the short on the sector itself (via SOXS), and initiate individual short positions based on price action.

Some equities are stronger, some weaker; AMD is one of the latter.

With that said, AMD, sold short @ 220.18, as AMD-26-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Close for the session just happened to be exactly at 220.18, putting the trade at break-even.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … ‘Gut Punch’

April 2, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-02, SOXX

‘Threatening’ Price Action

As of this post (11:31 a.m., EST) SOXX, price action is threatening to print a new daily high.

No matter what direction the market’s going to decide, new bull move or beginning of the bear, it will not let anyone get aboard comfortably.

To use a quote from yesterday:

“This is what markets do”

If this ‘last chance’ at posting a new high fails and the SOXX retreats from here, it’s possible the bulls have shown exhaustion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Once again, we’re at The Danger Point®, where the risk on a short-trade, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279