Category Archives: NVDA

Silver Top … Part III

April 20, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Elsa Kurt, Gold & Silver, Greg Hunter, NVDA, SLV 1 Comment

Less Volume … Less Energy

Public Service Announcement

Before we get started, recognize there’s a huge public service available with the (media, YouTubers, et al.) discussion on potential gold, silver, rally ‘to the moon’.

Now that Nvidia (NVDA) has posted a reversal, it’s likely the bull market, if not completely over, is seriously damaged.

As Ed Dowd, former BlackRock fund manager suggested, (link here), when the market turns lower, everything’s likely to head down … everything; at least, initially.

The public service: We get to see (in real time) which analysis method is best suited to determine the truth of what’s really happening.

With that, let’s move on to the chart.

Silver SLV, Tracking ETF, Weekly

If this is an initial thrust to move higher, it’s losing energy; narrow range (weekly) bar with volume contracting.

If we’re in an up-thrust about, to reverse lower or consolidate, this is the type of market behavior to expect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Delusional In … Delusional Out

Like the Artificial Intelligence (AI) delusion, hyped-up beyond all conceivable expectations, it takes a while to deflate.

This past Friday may have been the start.

So too, it could be with precious metals.

If indeed, this time is different, and were in a sustained, long term (years-long) rally for silver (SLV), then look for the character of the price action to change.

One potential example of that would be, successive gaps higher of $5/oz., $10/oz., or more.

A real bull market breakout (like the S&P in 1995), does not let you get aboard comfortably.

Note: That breakout in ’95, was a complete shock to the typical market watcher.

The S&P had oscillated in a trading range for a year before launching decidedly higher in early ’95. In that sense, the breakout is/was the complete opposite of the ‘long awaited’ (potential) bull run in precious metals.

The Mood Has Shifted

Anecdotally, the mood appears to have shifted.

If we’ve just past the top in the market (S&P, Dow, SOXX), then expect the social construct to become unhinged.

Here’s just one example of how that looks.

If you thought it was irrational on the way up … what’s it going to be like on the way down?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Trap Set?

March 13, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IWM, Life Insurance, MET, NVDA, SOXX, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, XBI 4 Comments

Is The Fear Exhausted?

It’s a confusing time.

Semiconductors with chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, seem to be reversing. Other sectors like biotech and mid-caps were never part of the mania.

Add to that, biotech and life insurance may be correlated (more on that, in another update).

As the market looks to pivot lower, bonds are also pivoting lower or at least under pressure.

In response, one can say there’s been sort of a panic into the mining sector GDX, GDXJ; like it’s somehow more safe there.

Let’s see if the miners really are the safe-space.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

As the chart shows (as of 12:35 p.m., EST), we’re pushing into known resistance (blue line) at the 37.00, area.

There’s also a Fibonacci time frame. Today is ‘Day 55’, from the December 22nd high.

Not only are we at Day 55 from the 12/22/23 high, but we’re also at Day 21, from the February 13th, lows.

Essentially, GDXJ is about to post a Wyckoff up-thrust condition, the area for potential downside reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Ready … For Reversal

March 10, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CAT, LABD, NVDA, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 3 Comments

The Set-Up, Two-Years Wide

It seems like it’s been forever.

Shown in the chart, Biotech XBI, may be set-up for potential, sustained downside.

This post from August of 2021, describes what we’re looking for; a repeating action, possibly as old as the market itself.

It’s important to note, ‘set-up’, is not, success.

‘Set-Up’, Means: Conditions have presented themselves, lending to high probability outcome (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly Close

Looking at the example with CAT (above link), and comparing it to the chart below, it’s similar except for the timeframe; XBI, is much longer.

Of course, downside action in CAT, reversing back to support, has yet to materialize with XBI.

That’s the point, it’s the unknown; The Danger Point®, where the risk of being wrong is least.

There’s nothing wrong with being wrong, i.e., quickly exiting a losing trade. It’s being wrong and staying wrong, that’s the problem. 🙂

The Nvidia Connection

This past Friday had wild trading action and volume in Nvidia, NVDA.

It posted a wide outside-down day, ranging over 108 points with heavy volume, 113.6-million.

The net result may be the end of the A.I. bubble; potential downside for it, and the rest of the markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Next Week

February 24, 2024 By in NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Was That, The Top?

Monday’s open could be important for the mania stricken Nvidia (NVDA).

This site’s not the only one figuring on a top if not the top.

Here’s a link showing typical behavior of previous mania bubbles; all-the-same.

Below, are specific price action behaviors pointing to either a pause with congestion, or outright ‘bubble-pop’ reversal.

We’ll find out soon enough.

Nvidia NVDA, 3-Day Bar Chart

We’re using a three-day chart, showing the magnitude of current thrust energy (mid-panel) and similar occurrence back in late May of ’23.

A lot of things are going on … all at once.

Back as far as 2006, the magnitude of the (two) upward thrust spikes has never happened before.

Is this a last gasp?

Price action reached and pulled-back from the (magenta arrow) channel high. That upward move was launched from an earnings release.

Now, we have two ‘bookends’ of upward thrust but here’s the key; markets tend to alternate.

That means: ‘What happened last time is not likely to happen this time’; Prechter’s rule of alternation.

The SOXX index itself plays a role as it had an ‘outside-down’ print on Friday; otherwise known as ‘key reversal’ or ‘bearish engulfing candle.’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont Breaks Lower

February 22, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, NEM, NVDA

But, What About ‘Inflation’ ?

With today’s earnings release, Newmont’s chance at an upside breakout has failed.

Include an earnings miss, dividend cut, and we have probabilities weighted for continued downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Reading the press releases, one gets the impression, Newmont’s battening down the hatches, preparing for a collapse.

If gold is supposed to launch higher, why all the divestiture, raising cash, paying down debt?

Miners Bear Market

The last update on the miners, link here, had the Juniors testing their trading channel.

Since then, price action drifted higher for one additional day, then reversed to the downside.

That’s where we are now.

To be fair, GDXJ price action has just filled a gap (as of 11:45 a.m., EST). From here, there could be some kind of upside attempt.

However, probabilities are low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Markets Go Berserk

While all eyes are on Nvidia’s (NVDA) last gasp of a delusional mania, the mining sector continues lower.

It’s quietly telling us there’s something wrong with the ‘inflation’ narrative (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Fed’s Next Move … Rates Up

February 19, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, TLT, Uneducated Economist, ZeroHedge

What A Surprise!

The Fed’s next move may be to raise rates, not lower them.

For those following this site, there’s no surprise. Over a year ago, we had this:

“Like ‘bread and circuses’, the ‘pivot’ discussion is a distraction … “

Incorporating the potential of rates higher into one’s analysis, ‘internalizing’ it as Uneducated Economist says, positions one completely out of the herd, able to view events objectively.

All of which brings us to the bond market, specifically long bonds TLT.

Long Bonds ETF, TLT Daily Close

Updates from this site are noted.

Until price action shows otherwise, rates are likely to head higher, not lower (bond prices down).

Therefore, using that strategic premise, the upside breakout (above resistance) in bonds had a higher probability of downside reversal than upside continuation.

No. 1 : The Usual Suspects

In the update with the above name, link here, scroll down to bullet item No. 10 for analysis.

The potential for a false breakout was correctly identified,

No. 2: Bond Reversal ? … Ruh, Roh

First, there’s potential, then, the actual.

The next update, link here, presented among other things, the odd occurrence of both bond and overall markets moving down simultaneously.

The inference being, the 40-year bond bull market is over and higher rates are more likely (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, The Fed and Nvidia

The next few days may be quite interesting.

Nvidia (NVDA) earnings are due after hours on Wednesday and the Fed minutes are scheduled for release earlier (2:00 p.m., EST) the same day.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

D.R. Horton ‘Rolls Over’

February 17, 2024 By in DHI, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Interest Rates, NVDA, QQQ, Real Estate, SLV, SOXX, SPY, TLT, ZeroHedge

When Real Estate Goes …

It’s been said, ‘when real estate goes, everything goes’.

Like a slow-motion train wreck, since late January, this site’s been watching the (potential) topping activity of D.R. Horton, DHI.

Now, DHI is reversing; coincident with the housing starts collapse, link here.

D.R. Horton, DHI Weekly Close

We’re right at the top of the ‘terminating wedge’.

Downside penetration and test will provide confirmation of the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The major market indices appear to be topping out as well.

The SOXX, may have reversed. Trading was ‘outside-down’ during yesterday’s session.

The SPY, and QQQ, also posted outside-down.

The potential Nvidia, NVDA reversal (link here) shows that so far, that high has not been exceeded.

Rates Up, Not Down

Adding gasoline to the fire, part of this site’s strategy is rates are going higher, not lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

So far, we see that’s true with long bonds (TLT) reversing to the downside, yet again.

And Then … Gold

Let’s not leave out the latest bullish report on gold (and silver), link here.

Notice the bias … that silver’s cheap relative to gold.

How about the massive, multi-year, ‘non-confirmation‘ between gold and the other monetary metals.

If it was real 1980s style inflation, everything would be moving up in tandem … which it is not; something else is going on.

Is the mining sector, GDX, GDXJ, anticipating a price decline in gold?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Parabolic’ … Is Now, ‘Reversal’

February 13, 2024 By in NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

The Top For NVDA?

If yesterday’s NVDA action was the top, we won’t know for sure until a new daily low is posted.

Even then, a new daily low could just be ‘a top’ and not ‘the top’.

Pre-market trading in both NVDA and the SOXX index (ETF) is currently pointing to a lower open; evidence for reversal is building (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Yesterday’s trading covered a wide “33.6” points; there’s that ’33’ again. 

How many times have we seen that in the markets?

As of this update (8:17 a.m., EST) the CPI reports have yet to be released.

Let’s see if that has an effect on the potential NVDA reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Goes Parabolic

February 7, 2024 By in NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Latest Trendline @ 86,000%, Annualized

Any day now, the bubble pops (not advice, not a recommendation).

NVDA, may have even topped-out today (or possibly will at the open tomorrow)

We had at least two recent, ‘mee-too’ recommendations (providing contrarian signals) for the high flyer; links here and here.

As we’ll see in the chart below, NVDA appears to be in a blow-off top with ever-increasing rates of ascent.

Nvidia, NVDA, Daily Close

This is what tends to happen during a mania top.

Obviously, the latest trendline, rising at +86,000% on an annualized basis, is not sustainable for the long term.

At this juncture, anything can happen. 

NVDA, already had a tremendous bull move from the recent lows of October 14th last year (posted low of, 108.13); realistically, how much upside is left?

Depending on tomorrow’s action, we’ll discuss a potential (short-sale) set-up in the SOXX.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

There’s a ‘Hole’ in The SOXX

December 2, 2023 By in NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-23-10, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Two-Weeks of Churn

The SOXX, has been churning at 510- 525, for over two weeks with no net progress.

What happens if it can’t go materially higher?

It’s reasonable to think, good news is already out; evidenced by Nvidia’s price action.

If we look at NVDA, using it as the proxy, it has reversed off all-time highs, slipped below support and on Friday, came back to test; a weak one at that (so far).

SOXX Highs, Long Ago

The SOXX posted its all-time-highs nearly two years ago with the most recent rebound in August, this year.

Now, after a subsequent move lower, price action has come back up to test, forming an apparent hole.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

The chart says it all; We’re at The Danger Point®

Price action appears to be struggling at this level.

If it can’t break higher and/or, posts a new daily low, it may be confirming a false breakout (Wyckoff, ‘Up-Thrust’).

That would open up possible testing of gaps (lower), potentially the Trading Range lows, as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As one would surmise, a short position was opened on Friday via Leveraged Inverse Fund SOXS.

Entry @ SOXS 8.59, Hard Stop @ 8.22, Soft Stop (discretionary) @ 8.30 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade is labeled: SOXS-23-10

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279