Category Archives: NVDA

Selling Short, TXN

April 10, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Semiconductors, TXN, TXN-26-08, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

A Generational Top?

It almost goes without saying, market events are taking place on a massive scale.

Ed Dowd, has said repeatedly in his interviews:

‘When it’s all said and done, I expect Nvidia to be down 80% to 90%’ (not advice not a recommendation).

However, there are others besides Nvidia, with significant downside potential.

Case in point, Texas Instruments.

There’ve been several recent updates on TXN. The most significant one, linked here.

It’s possible, right now, today, is a test of the all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Texas Instruments TXN, Weekly

One thing can be said with some certainty, we’re at The Danger Point®, where risk on a short is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the February update shows, it’s been 26-years since the other massive upward spike in Force Index.

Last time that happened, TXN imploded 87% (not advice, to a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Intel … After The Open

April 8, 2026 By in Spring-to-Up-Thrust, INTC, NVDA, Semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence, NVDA-26-01, INTC-26-03 Leave a comment

Set-Up & Go

The set-up in Intel (INTC) is more than just ‘selling the rip’.

We have a repeating pattern with a high expectation.

Meaning, the probabilities of a reversal to the downside with this type of set-up is greater than 50% chance (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this update (11:10 a.m., EST) INTC has decisively penetrated support and is now hovering at that level.

What’s missing in the way of confirmation is either a reversal bar today, or a new daily low during tomorrow’s session.

Intel INTC, Daily

With the mega-cap Nvidia almost instantly retracing its opening highs, it may be leading the pack lower.

If that’s the case, the entire sector is at risk of following NVDA to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … after-hours

April 7, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, NVDA-26-01, Semiconductors, ZeroHedge Leave a comment

Fibonacci Levels

The markets are higher in the after-hours session on news of a potential cease-fire, link here.

Nvidia’s no exception.

However, as the chart shows, it’s right at a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace (as of 7:13 p.m., EST).

If this level holds, or if NVDA moves higher, tomorrow’s session is likely to be quite interesting (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … at the Trend Line

April 1, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Another Reversal?

Nvidia penetrated support and rebounded.

Now, it’s near a contact point on a downtrend line, that’s also part of a trading channel.

Behavior of the market as it pushed above resistance (up-thrust), then below support (spring) is clearly demonstrated.

This is what markets do, have done, for over a century.

As far back as 1902, in Wyckoff’s autobiography, he figured out that such movements have ‘nothing to do with valuations’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Using the ‘Retrace’

March 31, 2026 By in SOXX, SOXS, NVDA, Semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence, GLW, SOXS-26-01, GW-26-09 2 Comments

Who’s Retracing The Least?

Today was a sharply higher in the SOXX, with 50% retrace (from the 3/25, high) on both a close and print basis.

The short trade, SOXS-26-01, was stopped-out (with profit) as yesterdays’ low was hit.

Looking at price action, Corning GLW, had ‘ease-of-movement’ lower yesterday, only partially retraced today (unlike SOXX and NVDA, for example).

In addition, the retrace was 38.2%, on both a print and close basis (lower than SOXX).

Repositioned short, as GLW-26-09, with stop at Monday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Blip and Dip

March 30, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-01, SOXX 2 Comments

Then, There’s The Channel

The last update said ‘normal’ market behavior, is for some kind of upward test (not advice, not a recommendation).

Well, this morning’s ‘blip’, could be it.

Adding some intrigue, the attached chart, NVDA on a weekly basis.

If we count all-time highs as Fibonacci Week 1, then we see (aggressively), pivoting lower into a trend and potential channel on Week 21.

This is scary business.

It implies, the ‘demand’ side of this channel (left blue line), is a long way away to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Fails & Falls

March 28, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Ed Dowd, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, TLT, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

One Reversal, After Another

‘The press refuses to report the facts’.

Before we get to Nvidia, let’s start with that nugget, just out, at this link (Time Stamp: 3:40).

How about another one.

‘Iran’s going to win this war’ (Time Stamp: 8:00).

Ok, one more, then the chart.

‘The bond market’s just getting killed’ (Time Stamp: 9:05).

Interest rates higher, not lower, has been a strategic premise on this site, for years (not advice, not a recommendation).

Supporting that statement, links here, here, here and here, all the way back to 2023 (at least).

As always, price action itself, will let us know if an upside reversal is at hand.

Now, on to Nvidia.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Price action has successively attempted to push above resistance levels, then printed an ‘up-thrust’, and reversed.

Nvidia finished the week, closing at 167.52, with support (closes) at 167.02 -167.03, printed on 9/5/25 and 7/22/25, respectively.

‘Normal’ market behavior is a bounce off support to test underside resistance … the key word being ‘normal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Lastly, here’s the latest from Ed Dowd, concerning Nvidia, link here, (Time Stamp: 24:48).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Breakaway … SOXX

March 21, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, Nasdaq, NVDA, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-26-04, YouTube Black Swan 2 Comments

Some Gaps, Never Filled

The day after the SOXX, topped on February 25th, was, this update.

In the case of Nvidia, it never printed or closed above the high reached on that day.

Well, the SOXX never made it back either.

Then, March 3rd, we have what looks like a ‘breakaway’ gap.

There’ve been at least two attempts to close that gap.

One of those attempts, a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up, which may have failed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Other markets have rolled over as well; the Dow, S&P, the Qs, Biotech and so on (not advice, not a recommendation).

This just out, shows the typical response to an oil price shock, link here.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Sleeper … Corning

March 17, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, GLW, GLW-26-07, NVDA, Semiconductors

Next Leg Down?

What if you got a ‘secret’ phone call, telling you to focus on one stock; that it would go farther, last longer, than anyone expected?

It would have worked with Nvidia.

Nvidia’s return from the 2008 low (0.14-split adjusted) to the 2025 high at 212.19, was a mind-blowing 151,464%.

A modest $10,000 turns into $15.2-million.

In the case below, it’s still too early to tell if Corning GLW, could be that stock, but to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Corning GLW, Daily

Currently, GLW is attempting to close the opening gap.

For the above hypothesis to be remotely viable, GLW, must close lower for the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

In addition, tomorrow’s action needs to be lower as well and stay within the channel, shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s a lot of ‘if, and then’

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX: Reversal & Retrace (so far)

March 2, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, SOXX

What’s Next?

The price segment at left, shows the SOXX reversing from all-time highs, lower into minor support, then retrace.

That move is in line with the Nvidia reversal on its earnings release.

As we’ve heard many times (Ed Dowd, Ox Talks and others), just the hint of slowing sales may be enough to kick off a sustained downside move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow is ‘Day 5’ from all-time highs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279