While Delays Mount
While Ox Talks reports on mounting delays in the A.I. ‘narrative’, link here, chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, appears ready to breakdown out of a wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Is Tomorrow, The Day?
We have all kinds of Fed related kabuki on tap for tomorrow, link here.
From a Wyckoff standpoint, whatever the Fed says, the beige book or any other ancillary information, is of no-matter to what the market’s actually saying about itself.
In the case of Nvidia and by correlation, the SOXX, gap distance discussed yesterday, is being narrowed.
Nvidia, NVDA, Daily
With the caveat, in the markets, anything can happen, nonetheless we see if NVDA gets to the target level to close the gap, that level is also a 61.8%, Fibonacci retrace (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Targeting Resistance?
June 5th was a 4-pt. downward gap open, then lower close; down 13.56-pts, or -6.20%.
Price action may be targeting this area in an attempt to fill the gap (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
While Nvidia Erodes, After-Market
Five trading days ago, On Semi, posted its all-time high.
The difference between ON, and semi leaders like, NVDA, TSM, and AGVO, the prior all-time high for ON, was years ago, back in July of 2023.
Since that time, it’s been in a wide trading range.
ON Semiconductor, ON, Daily Close
The standard set-up, seen many times, labeled as ‘spring to up-thrust’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
Depending on how price action goes from here, we’ll update accordingly.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
A Generational Top?
It almost goes without saying, market events are taking place on a massive scale.
Ed Dowd, has said repeatedly in his interviews:
‘When it’s all said and done, I expect Nvidia to be down 80% to 90%’ (not advice not a recommendation).
However, there are others besides Nvidia, with significant downside potential.
Case in point, Texas Instruments.
There’ve been several recent updates on TXN. The most significant one, linked here.
It’s possible, right now, today, is a test of the all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).
Texas Instruments TXN, Weekly
One thing can be said with some certainty, we’re at The Danger Point®, where risk on a short is least (not advice, not a recommendation).
As the February update shows, it’s been 26-years since the other massive upward spike in Force Index.
Last time that happened, TXN imploded 87% (not advice, to a recommendation).
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Set-Up & Go
The set-up in Intel (INTC) is more than just ‘selling the rip’.
We have a repeating pattern with a high expectation.
Meaning, the probabilities of a reversal to the downside with this type of set-up is greater than 50% chance (not advice, not a recommendation).
As of this update (11:10 a.m., EST) INTC has decisively penetrated support and is now hovering at that level.
What’s missing in the way of confirmation is either a reversal bar today, or a new daily low during tomorrow’s session.
Intel INTC, Daily
With the mega-cap Nvidia almost instantly retracing its opening highs, it may be leading the pack lower.
If that’s the case, the entire sector is at risk of following NVDA to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Fibonacci Levels
The markets are higher in the after-hours session on news of a potential cease-fire, link here.
Nvidia’s no exception.
However, as the chart shows, it’s right at a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace (as of 7:13 p.m., EST).
If this level holds, or if NVDA moves higher, tomorrow’s session is likely to be quite interesting (not advice not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Another Reversal?
Nvidia penetrated support and rebounded.
Now, it’s near a contact point on a downtrend line, that’s also part of a trading channel.
Behavior of the market as it pushed above resistance (up-thrust), then below support (spring) is clearly demonstrated.
This is what markets do, have done, for over a century.
As far back as 1902, in Wyckoff’s autobiography, he figured out that such movements have ‘nothing to do with valuations’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Who’s Retracing The Least?
Today was a sharply higher in the SOXX, with 50% retrace (from the 3/25, high) on both a close and print basis.
The short trade, SOXS-26-01, was stopped-out (with profit) as yesterdays’ low was hit.
Looking at price action, Corning GLW, had ‘ease-of-movement’ lower yesterday, only partially retraced today (unlike SOXX and NVDA, for example).
In addition, the retrace was 38.2%, on both a print and close basis (lower than SOXX).
Repositioned short, as GLW-26-09, with stop at Monday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Then, There’s The Channel
The last update said ‘normal’ market behavior, is for some kind of upward test (not advice, not a recommendation).
Well, this morning’s ‘blip’, could be it.
Adding some intrigue, the attached chart, NVDA on a weekly basis.
If we count all-time highs as Fibonacci Week 1, then we see (aggressively), pivoting lower into a trend and potential channel on Week 21.
This is scary business.
It implies, the ‘demand’ side of this channel (left blue line), is a long way away to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The Danger Point® 