Bond Bulls … Whacked

July 7, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, Ox Talks, TLT, ZeroHedge 4 Comments

Higher Rates

At the pivot off the lows in May, was this.

The very next day, TLT launched into a rally, seven straight higher closes, then a minor retrace to 38%, before continuing higher.

It seemed like all was well.

However, this link contains the statement that describes it best (paraphrasing):

Four-decades of the bull market in bonds, steadily declining yields, ended four years ago.

That bull market end, first discussed on this site (over two-years ago), with this post.

All of that to say, we did get a six-week rally in TLT, which at this point, has imploded; the over-riding bear market asserts its trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

Note: The dashed downtrend line goes all the way back to the week of 4/29/22, over four years ago.

Ox Talks, on Bonds

This update from Ox Talks, discussing private credit, but containing a nuance on bonds and interest rates.

‘Retail’ is bailing out of private credit, while ‘institutions’ are taking their place, link here (Time Stamp: 5:18).

At 5:40, we see how those institutions expect to see the ‘investment’ pay off (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

4 responses

  1. I’m putting some money into tomorrow’s 30 year auction. I’m hoping it’s a bad auction and I get a good price.

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      • I own EDV in the brokerage account and a lot of bonds in the treasury direct account. When auctions come up I nibble on treasury paper. I own bonds of all durations. I’m tempted to exit EDV entirely and rotate all the money into real bond paper because of the advantages of owning bonds over bond etfs.

        Given that we’re coming off a bear flattener in yields, and given the fact that the market is trying to price in 2 rate hikes, I actually recommend buying 2 year notes here. I’m more bullish on 2 year notes than bonds.

        There’s a kink in the yield curve with 20 year bonds yielding more than the 30 year, which makes the 20 year bond a good value play.

        So owning front-end notes with a mix of 20 year bonds is probably the way to go.

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      • Thanks for the detail,

        I guess Dr. Elder said it best himself, saying the time to go long is when things look horrible.

        One can look at the recent downside action in TLT two ways. First, is a ‘test’ of the lows (back in May) in preparation for more upside. That’s the bull case.

        The other way, that four-year trendline has not been broken to the upside. The recent melt-down suggests it’s still in play.

        Either way, we’re about to find out soon.

        TLT recent action has pushed below support levels at roughly 84.6, technically, in Wyckoff Spring position.

        It’s all bound to be quite interesting 🙂

        Regards,

        Paul

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