Category Archives: Interest Rates

Bonds (TLT) Bullish Channel

June 21, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TLT, Wyckoff Leave a comment

As the press, gets bearish

At this point, bonds (TLT) remain in an upward channel (rates lower), just as the press begins talking about rising rates (not advice, not a recommendation).

In his writings, Wyckoff was blunt about following the financial news (emphasis added):

‘If you listen to the press, you will never be successful in the markets’

Shown on the chart is the ‘stick save’ post, here.

Since that reversal, we’ve had steady demand with minor (38% or less) pull-backs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond ‘Stick-Save?’

May 19, 2026 By in 2000 - 2001, 2007 - 2008, Bonds, Interest Rates, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, TLT 3 Comments

Back, in the Day

It’s no secret, bonds (TLT) are at a critical juncture; primed to break significantly lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Breakdown, is almost a ‘no-brainer’.

Almost.

For those old enough, remember back in the early 2000s, the S&P had formed a near-perfect Head & Shoulders?

Remember, how price action was printing lower, ready to penetrate the down-sloping neckline?

Then, just as it got there (week of 10/11/02), from out of nowhere, came a launch upward that didn’t stop until October of 2007?

Rember that?

Of course, we found out later, the ‘hidden hand’ was at work, preventing a melt-down; leading us to where we are today. 🙂

Let’s all keep that in mind as we watch the bond market flirt with disaster (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Breakdown

May 17, 2026 By in Bonds, DRV, Interest Rates, IYR, Ox Talks, Real Estate, TLT

Bond Market Catalyst

The bond market’s on fire; yields screaming higher, bond prices lower.

Since the end of the forty-year bull market (TLT) in 2020, the view on this site, has been consistent.

That is, ‘unless there’s a market melt-down and even if there is, bond prices are likely to remain under pressure’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

That sentiment, recently echoed by Ox Talks, link here (Time Stamp: 6:40).

All of which, brings us to real estate.

Real Estate ETF, IYR, Daily

There were twenty-days struggling at resistance, forming a terminating wedge.

Day 21 (this past Friday) was the breakout to the downside.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds (TLT) Under Pressure

March 29, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TLT Tags: , , ,

From Wedge to Channel

The futures market open is just hours away.

We’re about to find out if the downside pressure on bonds (rates higher) is going to continue.

Before the chart, let’s go back about a year, to this update.

From that, we have:

“If bonds break lower and rates go (significantly) higher, just think of the chaos.”

Chaos? Well, Let’s See:

Over 3,500 US Troops Arrive In Middle East As Houthis Enter War, link here

North Sea Oil Fight Escalates As Starmer Cites Legal Limits, link here.

“Clearly A Concerted Effort”: Foiled Terror Attack At BofA’s Paris HQ Tied To Mideast War, France Says, link here.

Trump Ready To Take US Arms For Ukraine & Divert Them To Middle East, link here.

Hormuz Bypasses Maxed Out: Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Record 7 MMb/d, As UAE Fujairah Crude Loadings Reach Capacity, link here.

Maersk Slaps Emergency Fuel Surcharge As War Upends Marine Supply Chains, link here.

Fractured Jawbone: Crude Jumps, Stocks Dump, & Bond Fears Shift To Economic Slump, link here.

Scary Movie:

With all of that, rates have remained high, inching higher, but have not gone ‘significantly’ higher.

Then, there’s the bond chart

Long Bonds TLT, Monthly

With two trading days left in the month, we can already see, heavy downside volume (black arrow).

It’s also possible, the wedge from the prior update has morphed into a downside channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Incoming ‘Event’

For bonds to decisively break to the upside, pushing rates lower, the ‘herd’ needs to be re-directed.

To that effect, the scuttlebutt is, there may be an ‘event’ on the horizon (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Fails & Falls

March 28, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Ed Dowd, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, TLT, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

One Reversal, After Another

‘The press refuses to report the facts’.

Before we get to Nvidia, let’s start with that nugget, just out, at this link (Time Stamp: 3:40).

How about another one.

‘Iran’s going to win this war’ (Time Stamp: 8:00).

Ok, one more, then the chart.

‘The bond market’s just getting killed’ (Time Stamp: 9:05).

Interest rates higher, not lower, has been a strategic premise on this site, for years (not advice, not a recommendation).

Supporting that statement, links here, here, here and here, all the way back to 2023 (at least).

As always, price action itself, will let us know if an upside reversal is at hand.

Now, on to Nvidia.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Price action has successively attempted to push above resistance levels, then printed an ‘up-thrust’, and reversed.

Nvidia finished the week, closing at 167.52, with support (closes) at 167.02 -167.03, printed on 9/5/25 and 7/22/25, respectively.

‘Normal’ market behavior is a bounce off support to test underside resistance … the key word being ‘normal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Lastly, here’s the latest from Ed Dowd, concerning Nvidia, link here, (Time Stamp: 24:48).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Whacked … Down 9%

January 28, 2026 By in CVNA, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Watch The Fed Announcement

The last update on Carvana did not see how it was going higher but gave a potential price target, anyway.

At the same time, that update said:

“Note: Today’s break higher, then a pullback, puts CVNA in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).“

As of this post, CVNA has accelerated lower, penetrating support levels; that puts it in (minor) ‘spring’ position.

It’s possible there might be higher action (staying below the session high) into, during, or just after the Fed announcement (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

S&P Top of Channel

January 27, 2026 By in Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

Catalyst, Tomorrow?

Is the S&P about to blow-up in a downside reversal or breakout into a blow-off top?

This link does a good job covering the current situation.

The catalyst or ‘excuse’ for either scenario may happen at the Fed announcement, tomorrow (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biggest Bond Short … Ever

January 12, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TLT 5 Comments

What’s Next?

With only 265 views as of this post, you would expect news like this to be everywhere.

Not willing to take a data point of only one, putting in the question of TLT short interest, yields this, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Builders Higher … How Long?

January 11, 2026 By in Bonds, DHI, HD, Interest Rates, LEN, LOW, PHM

Bear Market Bounces

Home builders, and home improvement stores (HD, LOW), were up across the board on a policy announcement to support the housing sector.

Of the top three (market cap) builders, DHI, LEN, PHM, Lennar (LEN) has the weakest price action as we’ll see below.

On this site, we’re interested first, in the strategic position of the market; then, second, the tactical opportunity for a directional move.

Thirdly, is the focus part. There’s no ‘diversification’ but a zeroing into what price action says maybe the best opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Strategic Position

The ‘Residential Construction’ sector topped-out way back in October, of 2024.

As of Friday’s close, even ending the week +10.2% higher, it’s still down (from all-time highs) -18.29%

Lennar Corp LEN, Quarterly

Looking at the long-term view.

The chart says it all.

Lennar looks ready for ‘implosion’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

High Yield Breakdown

November 3, 2025 By in Bonds, HYG, Interest Rates 2 Comments

Is This It?

If there’s trouble, high yield bonds typically break down (rates higher) early in the cycle (not advice, not a recommendation).

When looking at the chart of ETF sector fund HYG, that’s what we have.

A rising, terminating wedge, then break to the downside.

High Yield, HYG, Daily

The magenta arrow shows pre-market trading (as of 7:55 a.m., EST), significantly lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279