While Delays Mount
While Ox Talks reports on mounting delays in the A.I. ‘narrative’, link here, chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, appears ready to breakdown out of a wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
A Lot, All at Once
Potential shock ahead.
That’s one way to describe what could happen via ‘Looking for Black Swans’, with the chart provided by Elliott Wave International.
Ruh, Roh
Adding some more chaos to the situation, is this.
What’s going to happen when ‘fiddling’ doesn’t work; when everyone figures out the emperor has no clothes?
Airbnb ABNB, Daily
ABNB surged on earnings with a gap higher, wide price bar, and heavy volume.
It then posted several weeks of congestion which at this juncture, looks like a terminating wedge.
Short position located as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
At The Edge
Events are unfolding rapidly.
The insurance sector, specifically life insurance (so far), is the whale under the surface (not advice, not a recommendation).
While Chubb Corp’s not life insurance, it’s the close cousin, property insurance.
Unlike the banks as pointed out at this link, if there’s trouble, there’s unlikely to be a bailout.
Chubb Corp. CB, Daily Close
We may find out on Monday, if CB is, or is not, following the down trendline (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Fibonacci, Day 5
Tomorrow is Fibonacci Day 5 for Carvana from the most recent up-thrust high.
The low (yesterday), was Fibonacci Day 3.
With that, we have two schools of thought.
Lower interest rates may (help) boost CVNA to the upper resistance boundary (dashed blue line), penetrating, creating a larger up-thrust condition.
Or tomorrow, is the test of the breakdown (then lower).
If that’s the case, it does not matter how low rates go, the economy is in a swan dive (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Tomorrow, Friday
Will tomorrow post a new daily high for ALL, and make it an even thirteen?
For that matter, why focus on (boring) insurance, anyway?
Probably, the best answer can be found here and here.
Many are focused on precious metals, bonds and the A.I. bubble.
Not a bad thing in itself.
However, behind the scenes, insurance companies are lumbering like The Great White Whale.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Demarcation Line
In the realm of the surreal, we have this.
Ox Talks gives an update on the latest psychosis concerning funding related to A.I.
All-of-a-sudden, for the first time in history, semiconductors, the chips themselves, are ‘investible assets’; time stamp: 3:08, in the link (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Next Tuesday, Day 21
For those keeping up with reports from ‘Ox Talks’, latest one here, one gets the sense, ‘the pig is already in the python’, and events could start to happen fast (not advice, not a recommendation).
With that said, CRDO, posted its all-time high 19-days ago, on June 22nd.
That makes Fibonacci Day 21, this coming Tuesday.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Higher Rates
At the pivot off the lows in May, was this.
The very next day, TLT launched into a rally, seven straight higher closes, then a minor retrace to 38%, before continuing higher.
It seemed like all was well.
However, this link contains the statement that describes it best (paraphrasing):
Four-decades of the bull market in bonds, steadily declining yields, ended four years ago.
That bull market end, first discussed on this site (over two-years ago), with this post.
All of that to say, we did get a six-week rally in TLT, which at this point, has imploded; the over-riding bear market asserts its trend (not advice, not a recommendation).
Long Bonds TLT, Weekly
Note: The dashed downtrend line goes all the way back to the week of 4/29/22, over four years ago.
Ox Talks, on Bonds
This update from Ox Talks, discussing private credit, but containing a nuance on bonds and interest rates.
‘Retail’ is bailing out of private credit, while ‘institutions’ are taking their place, link here (Time Stamp: 5:18).
At 5:40, we see how those institutions expect to see the ‘investment’ pay off (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Sort Of
What just happened?
Did the SOXX recover from the Broadcom inspired implosion?
Or is this a potentially failed attempt to reclaim the uptrend (not advice, not a recommendation).
Before we get to the chart, Ox Talks brings up a pivotal point, link here.
Paraphrasing, we have:
‘Everybody’s lying’
If that’s the case, why trust any ‘data‘ at all?
All of which brings us to potentially the only truth out there; the price.
Semiconductors SOXX, Daily
The ‘Secret’ Trading Signal
Performing a quick scan to find a decent description of ‘hanging man’ turned up the usual grifting suspects.
All of them, at least until I quit looking, were trying to turn this signal into a ‘secret’ method to trade the markets.
Needless to say, if you need a refresher, you’ll have to look for ‘hanging man’ on your own. 🙂
The actual pattern is not that big of a deal. It’s what happens next, that’s important.
What’s happening right now, as of 6:28 p.m. EST, in the after-hours, SOXX is eroding lower.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Fuel Price Hit
Walmart slammed lower on earnings.
From a price action standpoint, it sets up several interesting dynamics.
As we’ll see below, the long-term monthly view, shows a bearish MACD divergence (not advice, not a recommendation).
On that same chart, there’s (so far) an outside-down bar, otherwise known as a ‘key reversal’.
Daily action to be covered in a subsequent update.
Walmart WMT, Monthly
Going all the way back to 1995, the long-term view shows indicators like MACD, have literally gone ‘off the chart’.
Look at the size of the MACD divergence when compared to the past 30-years!
Meanwhile, as Ox Talks tells us, the crowd seems to be partying like it’s 1999.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The Danger Point® 