Category Archives: Ox Talks

Chubb Hangs On … How Long?

August 22, 2026 By in CB, Insurance, Life Insurance, Moby Dick, Ox Talks, Property Insurance Leave a comment

At The Edge

Events are unfolding rapidly.

The insurance sector, specifically life insurance (so far), is the whale under the surface (not advice, not a recommendation).

While Chubb Corp’s not life insurance, it’s the close cousin, property insurance.

Unlike the banks as pointed out at this link, if there’s trouble, there’s unlikely to be a bailout.

Chubb Corp. CB, Daily Close

We may find out on Monday, if CB is, or is not, following the down trendline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Tomorrow?

August 19, 2026 By in CVNA, Interest Rates, Ox Talks, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Fibonacci, Day 5

Tomorrow is Fibonacci Day 5 for Carvana from the most recent up-thrust high.

The low (yesterday), was Fibonacci Day 3.

With that, we have two schools of thought.

Lower interest rates may (help) boost CVNA to the upper resistance boundary (dashed blue line), penetrating, creating a larger up-thrust condition.

Or tomorrow, is the test of the breakdown (then lower).

If that’s the case, it does not matter how low rates go, the economy is in a swan dive (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Allstate’s ‘Day 13’

August 13, 2026 By in ALL, Artificial Intelligence, Insurance, Moby Dick, Ox Talks Leave a comment

Tomorrow, Friday

Will tomorrow post a new daily high for ALL, and make it an even thirteen?

For that matter, why focus on (boring) insurance, anyway?

Probably, the best answer can be found here and here.

Many are focused on precious metals, bonds and the A.I. bubble.

Not a bad thing in itself.

However, behind the scenes, insurance companies are lumbering like The Great White Whale.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Must Watch Video

August 11, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ox Talks, Semiconductors Leave a comment

Demarcation Line

In the realm of the surreal, we have this.

Ox Talks gives an update on the latest psychosis concerning funding related to A.I.

All-of-a-sudden, for the first time in history, semiconductors, the chips themselves, are ‘investible assets’; time stamp: 3:08, in the link (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Credo, Ready for Retrace

July 17, 2026 By in CRDO, Ox Talks

Next Tuesday, Day 21

For those keeping up with reports from ‘Ox Talks’, latest one here, one gets the sense, ‘the pig is already in the python’, and events could start to happen fast (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, CRDO, posted its all-time high 19-days ago, on June 22nd.

That makes Fibonacci Day 21, this coming Tuesday.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Bulls … Whacked

July 7, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, Ox Talks, TLT, ZeroHedge 4 Comments

Higher Rates

At the pivot off the lows in May, was this.

The very next day, TLT launched into a rally, seven straight higher closes, then a minor retrace to 38%, before continuing higher.

It seemed like all was well.

However, this link contains the statement that describes it best (paraphrasing):

Four-decades of the bull market in bonds, steadily declining yields, ended four years ago.

That bull market end, first discussed on this site (over two-years ago), with this post.

All of that to say, we did get a six-week rally in TLT, which at this point, has imploded; the over-riding bear market asserts its trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

Note: The dashed downtrend line goes all the way back to the week of 4/29/22, over four years ago.

Ox Talks, on Bonds

This update from Ox Talks, discussing private credit, but containing a nuance on bonds and interest rates.

‘Retail’ is bailing out of private credit, while ‘institutions’ are taking their place, link here (Time Stamp: 5:18).

At 5:40, we see how those institutions expect to see the ‘investment’ pay off (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX ‘Hangs On’

June 4, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, AVGO, LITE, LITE-26-01, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, SOXX 3 Comments

Sort Of

What just happened?

Did the SOXX recover from the Broadcom inspired implosion?

Or is this a potentially failed attempt to reclaim the uptrend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Before we get to the chart, Ox Talks brings up a pivotal point, link here.

Paraphrasing, we have:

‘Everybody’s lying’

If that’s the case, why trust any ‘data‘ at all?

All of which brings us to potentially the only truth out there; the price.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

The ‘Secret’ Trading Signal

Performing a quick scan to find a decent description of ‘hanging man’ turned up the usual grifting suspects.

All of them, at least until I quit looking, were trying to turn this signal into a ‘secret’ method to trade the markets.

Needless to say, if you need a refresher, you’ll have to look for ‘hanging man’ on your own. 🙂

The actual pattern is not that big of a deal. It’s what happens next, that’s important.

What’s happening right now, as of 6:28 p.m. EST, in the after-hours, SOXX is eroding lower.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Walmart Whacked

May 21, 2026 By in Ox Talks, WMT

Fuel Price Hit

Walmart slammed lower on earnings.

From a price action standpoint, it sets up several interesting dynamics.

As we’ll see below, the long-term monthly view, shows a bearish MACD divergence (not advice, not a recommendation).

On that same chart, there’s (so far) an outside-down bar, otherwise known as a ‘key reversal’.

Daily action to be covered in a subsequent update.

Walmart WMT, Monthly

Going all the way back to 1995, the long-term view shows indicators like MACD, have literally gone ‘off the chart’.

Look at the size of the MACD divergence when compared to the past 30-years!

Meanwhile, as Ox Talks tells us, the crowd seems to be partying like it’s 1999.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Breakdown

May 17, 2026 By in Bonds, DRV, Interest Rates, IYR, Ox Talks, Real Estate, TLT

Bond Market Catalyst

The bond market’s on fire; yields screaming higher, bond prices lower.

Since the end of the forty-year bull market (TLT) in 2020, the view on this site, has been consistent.

That is, ‘unless there’s a market melt-down and even if there is, bond prices are likely to remain under pressure’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

That sentiment, recently echoed by Ox Talks, link here (Time Stamp: 6:40).

All of which, brings us to real estate.

Real Estate ETF, IYR, Daily

There were twenty-days struggling at resistance, forming a terminating wedge.

Day 21 (this past Friday) was the breakout to the downside.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Regional Banks … Breakdown

May 14, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Banking, KRE, KRE-26-01, Ox Talks, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

End of The Test?

All eyes seem to be on reports like this, as if it’s a good thing while the nerdy kid in the back, is frantically waving, trying to get everyone’s attention.

All you need to know, link above, is in the first 55-seconds.

‘There’s never been a run like this’

It’s ok, this rally has legs because we’re believing the misconception, earnings move prices … so, all is well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, Back at The Bank

‘Ox Talks‘ has been relentlessly covering the truth; that truth is, the A.I. (and credit) narrative is imploding in real time (not advice, not a recommendation).

Which brings us to the banks.

The chart of Regional Banking ETF, KRE, shows what might be happening.

S&P Regional Banking ETF, KRE, Weekly

The Interpretation:

Wyckoff up-thrust in February, followed by ‘sign of supply’ in March, then up for a test.

We’re on a weekly timeframe; whatever happens has the potential for some duration.

With the breakdown, the test appears to be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279