Category Archives: Bonds

Bond Bulls … Whacked

July 7, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, Ox Talks, TLT, ZeroHedge 4 Comments

Higher Rates

At the pivot off the lows in May, was this.

The very next day, TLT launched into a rally, seven straight higher closes, then a minor retrace to 38%, before continuing higher.

It seemed like all was well.

However, this link contains the statement that describes it best (paraphrasing):

Four-decades of the bull market in bonds, steadily declining yields, ended four years ago.

That bull market end, first discussed on this site (over two-years ago), with this post.

All of that to say, we did get a six-week rally in TLT, which at this point, has imploded; the over-riding bear market asserts its trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

Note: The dashed downtrend line goes all the way back to the week of 4/29/22, over four years ago.

Ox Talks, on Bonds

This update from Ox Talks, discussing private credit, but containing a nuance on bonds and interest rates.

‘Retail’ is bailing out of private credit, while ‘institutions’ are taking their place, link here (Time Stamp: 5:18).

At 5:40, we see how those institutions expect to see the ‘investment’ pay off (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds (TLT) Bullish Channel

June 21, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TLT, Wyckoff

As the press, gets bearish

At this point, bonds (TLT) remain in an upward channel (rates lower), just as the press begins talking about rising rates (not advice, not a recommendation).

In his writings, Wyckoff was blunt about following the financial news (emphasis added):

‘If you listen to the press, you will never be successful in the markets’

Shown on the chart is the ‘stick save’ post, here.

Since that reversal, we’ve had steady demand with minor (38% or less) pull-backs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Rally Continues

June 11, 2026 By in Bonds, TLT

An Omen?

Is the bond market front-running a market meltdown?

The current rally began immediately after the ‘stick save‘ post and continued for a Fibonacci 8-Days.

Then, a retrace back to a shallow 38.2%, before continuing higher, indicating significant demand (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Like, Never Before’

May 24, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Ed Dowd, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-04, SOXX, SPY, Thoughtful Money, TLT

Unprecedented

The market rally’s unprecedented; like never before.

Will it be the same on the way down? (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adam Taggart says in the latest Ed Dowd interview:

‘Vertical moves don’t correct by going sideways’

Some Highlights

The entire interview is worth the time. However, some excerpts are below. Time stamps are in (parentheses).

Market summary (2:20)

Double ordering of inventory (8:28)

Helium shortage (9:00)

The beginning of the end (9:30)

Bonds, long term lows (10:48)

All you need is one company to slow ordering (13:30)

‘You don’t crash from tops’ (14:18)

‘I’ve never seen anything like this’ (14:40)

Price washout, sets up opportunities (19:30)

A.I. creating more problems than it solves (43:20)

Nvidia to retrace 80% – 90% (45:30)

This is my third rodeo … it’s all echoing (47:25)

‘It’s going to be fast’ (48:07)

Oil breakout (49:15)

Gold, source of liquidity (59:20)

Buffett’s at 40% cash (1:01:00)

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond ‘Stick-Save?’

May 19, 2026 By in 2000 - 2001, 2007 - 2008, Bonds, Interest Rates, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, TLT 4 Comments

Back, in the Day

It’s no secret, bonds (TLT) are at a critical juncture; primed to break significantly lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Breakdown, is almost a ‘no-brainer’.

Almost.

For those old enough, remember back in the early 2000s, the S&P had formed a near-perfect Head & Shoulders?

Remember, how price action was printing lower, ready to penetrate the down-sloping neckline?

Then, just as it got there (week of 10/11/02), from out of nowhere, came a launch upward that didn’t stop until October of 2007?

Rember that?

Of course, we found out later, the ‘hidden hand’ was at work, preventing a melt-down; leading us to where we are today. 🙂

Let’s all keep that in mind as we watch the bond market flirt with disaster (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Breakdown

May 17, 2026 By in Bonds, DRV, Interest Rates, IYR, Ox Talks, Real Estate, TLT

Bond Market Catalyst

The bond market’s on fire; yields screaming higher, bond prices lower.

Since the end of the forty-year bull market (TLT) in 2020, the view on this site, has been consistent.

That is, ‘unless there’s a market melt-down and even if there is, bond prices are likely to remain under pressure’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

That sentiment, recently echoed by Ox Talks, link here (Time Stamp: 6:40).

All of which, brings us to real estate.

Real Estate ETF, IYR, Daily

There were twenty-days struggling at resistance, forming a terminating wedge.

Day 21 (this past Friday) was the breakout to the downside.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds (TLT) Under Pressure

March 29, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TLT Tags: , , ,

From Wedge to Channel

The futures market open is just hours away.

We’re about to find out if the downside pressure on bonds (rates higher) is going to continue.

Before the chart, let’s go back about a year, to this update.

From that, we have:

“If bonds break lower and rates go (significantly) higher, just think of the chaos.”

Chaos? Well, Let’s See:

Over 3,500 US Troops Arrive In Middle East As Houthis Enter War, link here

North Sea Oil Fight Escalates As Starmer Cites Legal Limits, link here.

“Clearly A Concerted Effort”: Foiled Terror Attack At BofA’s Paris HQ Tied To Mideast War, France Says, link here.

Trump Ready To Take US Arms For Ukraine & Divert Them To Middle East, link here.

Hormuz Bypasses Maxed Out: Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Record 7 MMb/d, As UAE Fujairah Crude Loadings Reach Capacity, link here.

Maersk Slaps Emergency Fuel Surcharge As War Upends Marine Supply Chains, link here.

Fractured Jawbone: Crude Jumps, Stocks Dump, & Bond Fears Shift To Economic Slump, link here.

Scary Movie:

With all of that, rates have remained high, inching higher, but have not gone ‘significantly’ higher.

Then, there’s the bond chart

Long Bonds TLT, Monthly

With two trading days left in the month, we can already see, heavy downside volume (black arrow).

It’s also possible, the wedge from the prior update has morphed into a downside channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Incoming ‘Event’

For bonds to decisively break to the upside, pushing rates lower, the ‘herd’ needs to be re-directed.

To that effect, the scuttlebutt is, there may be an ‘event’ on the horizon (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Fails & Falls

March 28, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Ed Dowd, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, TLT, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

One Reversal, After Another

‘The press refuses to report the facts’.

Before we get to Nvidia, let’s start with that nugget, just out, at this link (Time Stamp: 3:40).

How about another one.

‘Iran’s going to win this war’ (Time Stamp: 8:00).

Ok, one more, then the chart.

‘The bond market’s just getting killed’ (Time Stamp: 9:05).

Interest rates higher, not lower, has been a strategic premise on this site, for years (not advice, not a recommendation).

Supporting that statement, links here, here, here and here, all the way back to 2023 (at least).

As always, price action itself, will let us know if an upside reversal is at hand.

Now, on to Nvidia.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Price action has successively attempted to push above resistance levels, then printed an ‘up-thrust’, and reversed.

Nvidia finished the week, closing at 167.52, with support (closes) at 167.02 -167.03, printed on 9/5/25 and 7/22/25, respectively.

‘Normal’ market behavior is a bounce off support to test underside resistance … the key word being ‘normal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Lastly, here’s the latest from Ed Dowd, concerning Nvidia, link here, (Time Stamp: 24:48).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds at Inflection

March 22, 2026 By in Bonds, TLT

Market Down, Bonds Down

Back in the day, when the market headed south, bonds typically head higher (rates lower).

Since January, when the markets reversed to the downside, bonds (TLT) blipped higher but then reversed as well.

Now, they have closed below support.

As the chart shows in the upper left, the forty-year bull market has ended.

Now, we’re in a new paradigm (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279