Evidence of a Top: IYR

Losing power with each attempt to move higher.

The daily charts show it’s clear there’s no more energy left to lift prices significantly higher.

Zooming in on the daily (below), momentum dissipation is evident:

Yesterday’s update said unless IYR posts a new daily high, it’s in reversal.

Price action came back late in that session to close the opening gap … but there was no new high.

The sector’s a juggernaut. When it reverses for good, downside action is likely to be as persistent as the upside.

In other but related markets, the dollar continues its upside reversal while gold and silver continue the downside.

The island gap-trap in silver, has now entered the disillusionment stage.

Retail ‘traders’ disillusioned about getting some tip in a widely followed ‘chat room’ that’s somehow going to make them rich by making only one decision (go long) and having little, or no experience.

Prechter said it well years ago: ‘Be sure to lose your fortune(s) early in life, so you have time to recover.

Even Van Metre’s getting heat and losing subscribers; the bond market’s not providing the necessary ‘good feelings’ for the inexperienced crowd to maintain a position longer than a few blips on the screen.

No matter the market, whether it’s bonds, gold, dollar, or real estate, the big money’s in the big move.

The most frequent condition of the market professional is one of ‘discomfort’.

If you need it, here’s a good source for help on mastering the emotions necessary to be consistently successful in the markets.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Target: 38.00

Like GLD, in this report, GDX looks like it’s correcting in a-b-c, type fashion.

The GDX chart shows the Fibonacci projection with target indicated (blue line and arrow).

If the dollar (UUP, proxy) reverses and heads towards resistance 24.75 – 24.80, while gold counter-trends higher, we’ll have a tenuous situation.

Something will break; gold or dollar and probably both. The dollar higher, gold along with the rest of the market, lower.

With so many short on dollar and bonds, if UUP gets to underside resistance, a reversal (to test back to 24.50 lows) could be very short lived.

Keep in mind, when it all comes apart at the seams, it’s likely to be quick.

In other markets, XOP in the pre-market shows a slightly higher open with DUG showing lower.

After the session is over and if there’s a new daily high in DUG, the stop will be moved up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, and as public service, here’s a link to an old article written by Robert Prechter Jr., way back in 1986; what it takes to be successful in the markets.

It’s a good read … probably the most important part is the last bullet item, No. 5  “The Mental Fortitude To Accept Huge Gains”

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.