Real Estate … Slipping Away

Mid Session

‘Frog In The Pot’

Once price action enters back into a previous trading range, the clock starts ticking.

Since IYR’s at the upper bound of the congestion zone, there’s still a possibility it can right itself and pull away to the upside.

Mid Session

During the mid-session just now, price action is pushing slightly higher and testing the underside of the range (upper blue line).

This is normal behavior … and we’re going to wait it out (not advice, not a recommendation).

For IYR to break out to the upside, there would have to be some major demand to launch IYR prices higher; just where would that demand come from?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Real Estate (IYR), Reversal?

After The Close

Attempts To Short Abandoned Last April

The last update on real estate (IYR) was at the ‘abandon’ arrow. At that time, the assessment was, even though conditions appeared set for reversal, it just was not happening.

Something else was going on.

It came out weeks later, that ‘something’ was entire subdivisions were being purchased (above asking price) out from under qualified potential homeowners.

Well, has that trend finally exhausted itself?

Last week’s climactic price rise and volume, which is quickly being eroded suggests were at some type of transition.

An initial position in DRV (3X inverse IYR) was opened today as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Pushing below the support level around IYR 107, would help confirm there’s something more going on than just a breakout and test.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Russell … Rolling Over

Bearish Wedge Poised To Break Down

The Russell 2000 (IWM as proxy) has been congesting sideways for about five months.

While the overall markets, S&P, Dow, SOXX, IYR and the QQQs, have been moving on to new highs … the Russell has stagnated.

Taking a cue from Steven Van Metre’s reports on ‘who goes first’ in a downturn, it’s the small caps.

At this juncture, it looks like the Russell’s ready.

The six month daily chart of IWM below, shows choppy action.

Pulling back somewhat and labeling the bearish wedge, puts it into perspective (second chart):

Pulling out and labeling the wedge:

One item of note (not shown) at the top of the wedge, where price action pivoted lower (August 6th), is a Fibonacci 62%, retrace level.

So, we have a bearish wedge retracing 62% … along with non-confirmation of the overall highs; S&P, Dow, SOXX, etc.

Major reversals take a long time to form. However, once they get underway, it’s like a juggernaut to the bottom.

Harkening back to the oil (USO) bear market of 2014, nearly all (if not all) the YouTuber’s at the time, completely missed the bearish set-up.

What they did instead, once the downdraft started, was pump out update after update about ‘catching the bottom and setting up for the new bull market in oil’.

It never happened.

Oil continued lower for a year and a half before getting into a sideways range.

The big money’s in the big move. Monitoring the Russell provides confirmation a significant reversal’s in the works (not advice, not a recommendation).

As with biotech (SPBIO), already in a bear market, the IWM could break lower while the overall markets continue to thin-out and even make new highs.

Recall, we’re getting close to an up-coming holiday: Labor Day

The 1929, high was on the Tuesday just after Labor Day weekend.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Miners Channel Lower

10:47 a.m., EST

GDX In Trading Channel

Follow On To ‘Up-Thrust’ Analysis

First, let’s start with the July 29th analysis of GDX. That update showed price action about to ‘Up-Thrust’ into a reversal.

The update even gave a possible high for the top of the developing set-up.

That high was in the area of GDX 35.65, near the 38% retrace level.

GDX topped-out at 35.82; then reversed.

The set-up chart is shown below and followed with the price action result:

And the result …

Pulling out to look at the weekly time frame, it’s clear, GDX is in a down-channel.

The magenta arrows show channel contact points:

Summary:

Gold and the miners are not showing hyperinflation at this juncture. It’s just not there.

Something else is going on.

As with the real estate index (IYR) not reversing as expected from collapsing retail purchasing (within established malls and elsewhere), gold and the miners are not moving decisively higher.

With real estate, It came out months later (after abandoning shorts on IYR) that Black Rock and others had been buying up whole sub-divisions … specifically from D.R. Horton.

With gold, it may be something else.

As proposed several times, the ‘controllers’ may make it irrelevant.

For example, some parts of Australia are completely immobile.

If you can’t get to the bullion dealer to either buy or sell, does it really matter if the metal’s in your possession?

This is a long-term game and this site’s in it for the long haul.

Each side making its chess moves. With that, it’s probably a good idea to review the standard plan of those on the other side.

Anecdote:

From a personal standpoint, as this post is being generated, there’s a Leghorn Rooster in a dog kennel cage (in my office) that’s been crowing for about two hours.

The same one (only much larger now) seen in this brief video.



Roosters are absolutely verboten in this neighborhood.

He started to crow decisively (collar or not) about a week ago; starting around 6:30 a.m.

He was not part of the plan. The five chicks were all presumed to be hens and his appearance was sort of an accident.

Several iterations later, which included sound-proofing the garage, he’s got his own set-up in my office.

It’s been about two and a half hours now and it looks like he’s done crowing. Soon, he’ll be off to check out the hens and be on with his day.

As a result of his arrival, we’ve changed our thinking: It may not be long before sentiment (to the food supply) changes instantly. It’s possible everyone at that time will be clamoring for their own livestock … crowing or not.

They’re no guarantees we’ll be able to keep him a secret (but God willing).

However, if he can be kept on the down low and then food supplies are cut off or severly curtailed, we’ll be more than happy to offer “Stud” services … for ‘small’ fee 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Print High & Close

The table lists well known index ETF’s; along with most recent highs and current (Friday) close:

All the usual suspects are there:

S&P 500, SPY, The Dow 30, DIA, Nasdaq, QQQ, and on.

What’s also listed is how far each index (ETF) is from its most recent all time high or ‘recovery’ high (in percentage terms).

Obviously, one of these is completely out of bed: Biotech, IBB

We’ll be discussing the technical condition of biotech tomorrow. For now, the updated ‘project’ chart’s included below:

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Position Change

DRV pushed through our stop early in the session; position closed (not advice, not a recommendation).

1:50 p.m. EST:

Despite all the analysis, IYR is showing continued buoyancy.

Something else is going on; possibly related to Uneducated Economist’s link provided in the last update.

Taking his cue, a functioning mortgage market is all important to the financial narrative, it’s possible this market will be more heavily manipulated than others.

At this juncture it would make sense. All indications are for reversal … yet it’s not happening in any significant way.

Time for another trade.

We’re going back to a market that in retrospect, should’ve been the focus all along; Biotech.

This site’s coming from the perspective those reading, are well aware the ‘speck’ as we call it (to avoid censorship) was a fabricated event.

Just a reminder that we’re not some ‘Johnny come lately’, here’s the link from way back in May, last year.

That post proves the situation was figured out well before the May 17th publish date (interviews, observations conducted a month prior).

What’s not fabricated however, are the repercussions from the so-called cure for the speck.

Unfortunately, those are happening now and are quite real.

Moving on to the trade.

Despite the number of transactions shown in the Project Stimulus table (below), the objective is to minimize activity. We’re looking for a mid, to long term sustainable move; gain potential, 100% to 1,000%.

Updated previously, very long term (Quarterly) IBB has reversed.

Monthly and weekly have reversed as well; both the monthly and weekly MACD indicators point down. Daily is essentially flat.

The hourly chart of LABD (3X inverse IBB) shows the entry location and subsequent price action. Stop is the session low @ 22.23 (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s worth repeating, the false narrative on the speck and consequences of speck protection may blow up in the media (and biotech) at any time.

As J.P. says, getting people to do something they know is bad for them (or lethal) is the ultimate ‘elite’ high.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Technical Discussion, Real Estate

“Depending on where that close is … “

That, from the last update on real estate, IYR

Price action is extracting every last bit of up-side. We’re down to the five-minute chart (above) to discuss yesterday’s move.

Any time price action penetrates a low or support level, it automatically puts that action in ‘spring’ position. Sometimes the selling is just too strong and the spring set-up fails immediately.

Other times (like yesterday), it holds.

Another way to look at it; for IYR to move higher, it had to go lower to get the needed fuel (penetrating support levels). Only this time, and depending on the data provider, IYR closed unchanged or up 0.02-pts.

So, the range in our recent technical discussion(s) has gone from 9.77%, to 1.83%, to 0.60%, 0.27%, and now, yesterday, 0.0%.

Before a market can go down, it has to stop going up … looks like we’re there or at least at the point where reversal is highly probable.

The hourly chart has the characteristic where volume spikes indicate trend change or potential change. The right side of the chart has the spikes but no direction change … yet.

Separate but related, Uneducated Economist gives his take on potential government ‘incentives’ for real estate.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Real Estate: Outside-Down

It’s about 11:55 a.m. EST, IYR just posted outside-down.

There are four hours to go before the close. Depending on where that close is, we may have a key reversal in IYR.

Key reversals (aka outside-down, or up) are one of the more reliable indications of sustainable trend-change.

Of course, IYR has been closely monitored for several days with indications reversal is imminent.

This may be it.

Our Project Stimulus chart has been updated to include the market defined (as of this morning) stop level (not advice, not a recommendation):

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

More & Less

Volume increases on IYR; range contracts even further.

In what’s beginning to look like its been taken straight out of David Weis’ training video on ‘trend reversals’, volume has surged and range has contracted drastically.

The last update had range contracting down to 1.83% (from 9.77%).

Now we’ve got yesterday’s range down to 0.60%; volume up to 18-million shares … the highest since October 2nd, last year.

One of two things is happening.

It could be absorption for a new leg upward to ever higher, highs.

Or

It could be distribution and ultimate reversal.

There’s certainly enough fundamental evidence to show commercial and residential real estate, may have gone off the cliff.

Still, we have headlines like this, from ZeroHedge.

The key is the “hottest real estate market since 2007”, part. Remember this magazine cover?

We’ve got what appears to be conflicting data. ‘Over the cliff’ on one side and ‘red-hot market’ on the other.

The answer’s in the price action. We’re at a potential (major) inflection point. The market leads the news and not the other way around.

If we’re at the pivot, about to head lower, bad news will be forthcoming after the reversal’s in place.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Real Estate, Inverted

The inverted chart of IYR, shows the extremes of current price action.

The chart has a compressed time scale which may be hard to see. It was necessary to present it this way to show extreme action.

The prior update, has a wedge ‘throw-over’ that’s been one year in the making. The daily above, has its own terminating wedge formed over a six-week period.

The important part, is the range and volume.

Back on November 9th, 2020, there was a large volume spike and a move whose (total) range equated to 9.77%

Thursday, April 1st, was a similar volume spike but total range was just 1.83%; a huge (range) contraction when compared to the prior move.

This tells us massive volume is not having a significant result. Of course, if the volume persists, sellers in this area will be absorbed and IYR will move higher.

If not, this could be distribution; a reversal can be expected.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.