DRV pushed through our stop early in the session; position closed (not advice, not a recommendation).
1:50 p.m. EST:
Despite all the analysis, IYR is showing continued buoyancy.
Something else is going on; possibly related to Uneducated Economist’s link provided in the last update.
Taking his cue, a functioning mortgage market is all important to the financial narrative, it’s possible this market will be more heavily manipulated than others.
At this juncture it would make sense. All indications are for reversal … yet it’s not happening in any significant way.
Time for another trade.
We’re going back to a market that in retrospect, should’ve been the focus all along; Biotech.
This site’s coming from the perspective those reading, are well aware the ‘speck’ as we call it (to avoid censorship) was a fabricated event.
Just a reminder that we’re not some ‘Johnny come lately’, here’s the link from way back in May, last year.
That post proves the situation was figured out well before the May 17th publish date (interviews, observations conducted a month prior).
What’s not fabricated however, are the repercussions from the so-called cure for the speck.
Unfortunately, those are happening now and are quite real.
Moving on to the trade.
Despite the number of transactions shown in the Project Stimulus table (below), the objective is to minimize activity. We’re looking for a mid, to long term sustainable move; gain potential, 100% to 1,000%.
Price action is extracting every last bit of up-side. We’re down to the five-minute chart (above) to discuss yesterday’s move.
Any time price action penetrates a low or support level, it automatically puts that action in ‘spring’ position. Sometimes the selling is just too strong and the spring set-up fails immediately.
Other times (like yesterday), it holds.
Another way to look at it; for IYR to move higher, it had to go lower to get the needed fuel (penetrating support levels). Only this time, and depending on the data provider, IYR closed unchanged or up 0.02-pts.
So, the range in our recent technical discussion(s) has gone from 9.77%, to 1.83%, to 0.60%, 0.27%, and now, yesterday, 0.0%.
Before a market can go down, it has to stop going up … looks like we’re there or at least at the point where reversal is highly probable.
The hourly chart has the characteristic where volume spikes indicate trend change or potential change. The right side of the chart has the spikes but no direction change … yet.
Separate but related, Uneducated Economist gives his take on potential government ‘incentives’ for real estate.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.