Fighting The Last War

Because, Last Time Will Work This Time

Gold fund GLD, saw record inflows for the past year.

So, that’s the place to be, right?

In a rare (media) event, the answer may be included in the above link.

The analyst in the article is quoted as being “surprised” the actual metal, gold, has not moved appreciably higher as a result of massive ETF inflows.

Since before 1980 when gold reached an all time high (back then) of $850/oz., its’ been ‘inflation, inflation, inflation’.

That Was Then:

It’s been forty-plus years (some would argue more) of non-stop inflation.

At some point, the music stops; we seem to be very close.

Everybody stampeding into gold and related markets (i,e., the miners) appears to be fighting the last war: Inflation.

Where We Are Now:

In Steven Van Metre’s latest update, he presents just how precarious and fragile is, the current market environment.

It’s a short video, just under 13-minutes; it’s worth the time.

The internet’s been the great equalizer and so everyone has access to the same information.

After watching his video (time stamp 6:07), it raises the question as to why anyone, or any financial manager, would want to be long in the equity market (not advice, not a recommendation).

To Be, Or Not To Be, ‘Certified’

Let’s just throw in that ‘certified’ management actually underperforms non-certified peers. At least in the case of the CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

In the article above, it even states that ‘experience’ is a deciding factor. Imagine that. 🙂

One has to be smart to pass the certification tests. No doubt. However, ‘smart’ does not equal ‘savvy’.

Taking all of this into account, it’s reasonable to think we’re possibly just one ‘fat-finger’ away …

Gold Finished Testing ?

We’re a few hours from the Fed announcement but the market looks like it’s already made a decision.

The daily chart of gold (GLD) shows all that’s happened since the potential for up-thrust breakout was first presented.

The zoom chart shows price action right at the support/trendline of the terminating wedge.

More importantly, we see that action is below the established resistance line; possibility indicating the test is complete.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Straight Talk On Gold

The Air’s Going Out

It’s time for the truth on gold and the miners.

Before we get to the charts, we’re going to start with an unlikely source:

Dr. Vernon Coleman

His latest video post is here; it’s important to watch in its entirety.

At time stamp 13:30, in the link, he says that restrictions are backing off, not because of any real change of conditions; no, they’re backing off to clear room for the next scam.

Useful Idiots

For obvious lies to have any effect, one has to have a whole pack of idiots to believe them.

The last post showed with the anecdotal ‘Target’ update, of that, there is no shortage.

So how does one think a dirty, dangerous mining operation is going to be functional with an ever declining or impaired workforce coupled with a potential ‘climate lockdown’?

Let’s not forget, these operations are also working to solve problems that don’t exist (i.e. ‘sustainability’ and ‘net zero’).

Was it like this in 1929 ?

The latest post from Economic Ninja, talks about the market becoming more “narrow” … which is just an alternate term for “thinning-out”.

All of this brings us to the market at hand: Gold and the miners.

Newmont Mining (NEM):

We’ll go straight to the inverted daily chart of NEM:

This prior post did an excellent job showing the potential bearish reversal conditions for NEM.

However, there’s at least one more bearish condition and that is, ‘up-thrust’.

Remember, that if it’s ‘up-thrust’ on the regular chart, it becomes ‘spring’ on the inverted.

The zoom chart below shows price action has come back to test support quickly; an indication the downside thrust cleared out the weak hands and allowed strong hands to take positions.

We’re talking ‘inverted’ here.

So, what’s likely happened in the real (non-inverted) world:

The herd has bought into the inflation narrative.

They think Newmont, the miners and the gold market, are breaking out to the upside. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the professionals have likely used the opportunity to sell or sell-short.

Back In The Day

Way back in the day, when Steven Van Metre, still had his 1970s wood-paneled office, he used to talk about how the Fed knows its actions are deflationary.

Also, how the Fed was in no way going to educate the public; so, they let that public believe that it’s all about inflation and dollar destruction.

The herd is nearly always on the wrong side of the trade. Here’s a blast from the past to help make that case.

Data Dump & Asset Transfer

With so many bits of data swirling around like Cryptos, Digital Dollar, UBI, Supply Chain Destruction, Depopulation, Neo Feudalism, and on, who of us in the proletariat, really know how it’s all going to play out?

However, there’s one thing of which, we can be sure:

It’s an asset transfer of Biblical proportion.

Next On The Schedule

This post is already long and we’ve not discussed the mining indices and downside projections.

Depending on price action or news, we’ll cover that in tomorrow’s update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Hit In The Head

Not Waiting Around For The Fed

It’s been an abusive relationship for the gold bulls.

Following the corporate media (always a mistake) and YouTuber’s alike (sometimes a mistake), only to find out it’s all been a lie.

Gold (GLD), looks like it’s solidifying its breakaway gap (chart below) and simultaneously confirming a potential trading channel.

In what may be related news, ZeroHedge reports some of the internet is down … again.

Note the websites having problems involve food, payroll services and of course, entertainment.

Separately, the dollar (UUP) just made a new weekly high as its rally continues. In Steven Van Metre’s Sunday Night update (time stamp: 18:01), if the dollar breaks higher above UUP 26 or 27, then “… all the wheels come off ….”

Which brings us to the gold market.

Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart

The chart reviews the recent up-thrust (reversal) that was accompanied by hysterical … bordering on unhinged insane press coverage of an imminent break higher.

Obviously, that didn’t happen.

Zoom version

In addition to the reversal and breakaway gap, there could be a trading channel as well.

That’s a good thing for the bears as it gives a more clear exit area … negation (or break) of that channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Zoom version

Of course, anything can happen. The Fed announcement is about two hours away.

However, it looks like gold and miners alike, are not waiting around … potentially beginning their decline in earnest.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Heart Failure’ … The New Normal

… What It Could Mean For Biotech

So, now it starts.

This just out from ZeroHedge, linked here, shows the ‘elephant’ has begun to go mainstream.

Another chess-move.

At least one previous post (No.1, linked here), has shown the phenomenon is not a one-off event.

Now, according to the link above, there’s an estimated 300,000 affected … and we’re just getting started.

Insiders Sell … Retail Buys

Do those at the highest levels know their customer base is about to evaporate on a world-wide basis?

While they may not know every detail, they at least know something’s up. Steven Van Metre discusses the insider selling in his latest update, linked here.

Front End Phenomenon

We’re still at the beginning stages of an event that in the opinion of this author, is going to last the lifetime of those reading this post.

‘Hyperbolic statement’ one might say.

To that, I would counter with this; when it was posted, the ‘elephant’ was hyperbolic as well.

Now? Not so much.

Keeping that long range thinking in mind also keeps one from choosing the ‘insane’ human behaviors discussed by Dan (I Allegedly) in his latest post.

So, let’s take a look at what type of insanity we have going on in the markets today.

Of course, that points us to our chief cook and bottle washer, biotech (IBB).

Biotech, IBB

When we last left our hero, savior, and protector of all that is natural immunity, the biotech discussion was on Moderna (MRNA).

The thrust higher, detailed in this post was thought to be too fast for a sustained reversal. Well, it was right and wrong at the same time.

Moderna wound up reversing … sort of.

At the same time, the biotech sector headed lower to support and is now moving higher.

The weekly IBB, chart has the support (lower blue line) and potential up-thrust location (also 50%, retrace) identified.

The zoom shows the narrow gap between the weekly bars and 50% retrace.

If price action makes it past the resistance bars and into the gap, IBB would then be in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


Gold Miners … Test & Reverse

Any Buying Support Left ?

Not if you look at the volume profile.

Steven Van Metre, in his Sunday Night Charts (time stamp 12:20), shows the precarious situation of GDX.

There’re about 90-minutes left to go in this session.

It looks like GDX is/has tested underside resistance and down-trend simultaneously. For GDX to break higher, it would have to get through that resistance.

As always, anything can happen but we need to remind ourselves, the gold bulls are already trapped … having bought at the mid-November breakout.

If still holding, they’re now deep in the red.

Under such conditions, each down move serves to set the (bear) hook even more.

If we use this just released article from ZeroHedge, we’re nowhere near any kind of capitulation and upside reversal.

Senior Miners, GDX

The un-marked daily chart

And now …

With zoom

We’re at a confluence of resistance; the downtrend and the underside of price action.

Let’s keep in mind, the overall markets (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq) are still oscillating around their all-time highs. Volatility has increased as the trend appears to be changing.

Gold and the miners are nowhere near all-time highs.

A century ago, Wyckoff showed how to spot markets that would decline the fastest and farthest under bear market conditions (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s not the high-flyer we’re looking for … no, it’s the laggard.

That’s the one to pick.

It’s already weak and once the buoyancy of the general market evaporates, the bottom may fall out.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver, Going To Single Digits ?

It’s A Depression

And

It’s An Industrial Metal

They don’t call it ‘silver solder’ for nothing.

As the link above says, it’s almost ‘impossible’ to substitute.

Silver goes into nearly everything electronic.

Depending on whom you believe, the mainstream says the Future’s So Bright … right?

However, the charts say we may be headed much lower.

Remember the silver ‘short-squeeze’ and the little guy putting-it to ‘The Man’?

At this point, the only silver put around is on the little guy.

The Man’s going merrily along; short the sector that was so recently hyped with gold to “$3000 In Months, Not Years”

In Steven Van Metre’s latest update, he said no fewer than three times, the Fed ‘does not print money’.

It’s a false belief (by the public) they’re not about to change.

At the end if his video, he promised a report … or to make accessible his research on how that (not printing) is so.

Bringing us to the market at hand.

Silver (SLV)

Monthly un-marked chart.

The main thing to note above, SLV, is not at new highs.

In fact, at today’s price, SLV is down over 57%, from its all-time high set in April of 2011.

That in itself, should say there’s something wrong with the inflation, hyper-inflation, narrative.

Using a standard Fibonacci projection tool and tagging the 2011 high, the 2020 low, and the 2021, retrace high, we get the following:

It’s a little hard to see … so we’ll zoom in on the right side.

The 50%, Fibonacci projection, is somewhere between SLV: 9.00, and 9.50.

The premise for declining past 38% (around 13.70) and getting at least to 50%, is predicated on the collapse of the economy and subsequent evaporation of silver demand … at least from an industrial standpoint.

The precious metals ‘stacker’, discussed below, might become more interested in obtaining food than continuing to stockpile something that in times of famine, has very little use.

With the SLV chart above, is that even possible?

SLV, to single digits?

Well, can oil futures go negative?

Enough said.

Food As The Weapon

This site’s been steadfast in thinking, it’s the food first, then silver and gold.

Here are two more links to add to our ‘stack’ supporting that assessment.

The Stage Is Set

Famine Comes Next

As Bjorn says in ‘famine’, come this spring, when the masses realize there will be no (or very little) food and/or you need ‘papers’ to buy food, market pandemonium (if not already) is the likely result; precious metals included.

When To ‘Stack’

So, when will be the time to acquire precious metals (not advice not a recommendation).

It’s deceptively simple; ‘When you don’t want to’.

The time to acquire an asset, is when nobody else wants it … including you.

Positioning short the gold miners GDX, was done when everybody and their dog was a manic bull; screaming an upside breakout was “imminent”.

As Prechter said, positioning opposite the herd involves overriding the limbic system of the brain.

It’s an intellectual (logic-only, thinking) process.

However, overriding the lower brain, i.e., going against the herd, is physically painful.

Excruciating, is a better description.

He went on to say, some of the best traders/speculators he ever knew, were former Marines.

Positioning

Coming up (most likely tomorrow) will be a chart showing positions opened in GDX inverse fund DUST (not advice not a recommendation).

There’s no obligation on this site’s part to reveal that information.

However, it will help explain how the market itself directed trading actions.

It will also show how the on-going reversal corrected several entry errors on my part.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Future’s So Bright …

… I’ve Gotta Raise Rates !

That’s right. The economy’s so good, we’ve got to raise rates.

Well, almost.

First, there’s more aggressive tapering … then we raise rates … honest.

No, this isn’t an MTV video from the ’80s … it’s the Fed life.

The latest update from Steven Van Metre, has comments from the Fed that seem like they’re from another world, another time.

Evidently, the economy’s so strong … so good, that we might taper more aggressively and then … raise rates.

At this point, ‘what difference does it make?’

They’ve probably already cashed-out (like last time) and now stand on the sidelines.

Meanwhile back at the proletariat, we’re deciphering the market’s next moves … Fed press releasees notwithstanding.

Is Gold (GLD) The Black Swan ?

Frist off, there are several YouTuber’s that are providing an excellent service; letting us know the real state of the economy.

They are invaluable; thus, receiving their fair share of hate from those that don’t want to hear, see, or smell, ‘bad news’.

All of them willingly admit, they’re not experts when it comes to the markets … fair enough.

However, in Jerimiah Babe’s latest update, he may have unwittingly revealed a (or the) black swan.

Gold and the gold market.

JB’s offered the anecdote of attempting to purchase more gold at the dealer. For the first time ever, he was limited on the amount available.

From a market standpoint, the public, is all-in.

Even as we speak, gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ, are in a vicious downside reversal.

At this juncture, it looks like an upward test of resistance (discussed yesterday) is nowhere in the cards.

Price action for the most part, is straight down.

Which brings us to the charts.

GLD, Weekly Chart:

Marked up with resistance and the up-thrust reversal.

Zoomed area of the reversal

Personal Opinion:

Because the gold hype by the financial press was so incessant for so long (which by the way, has strangely ‘disappeared’), this reversal may be something that lasts much longer than anyone would expect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Downside Targets:

The weekly GLD chart below has a Fibonacci projection tool overlay.

A 161.8%, projection would take GLD down to 119 – 120.

Are the gold bulls prepared for an extended downside rout in the metals?

Summary:

Early morning food production.

It might not look like it’s connected to the markets but it is.

Market analysis presented on this site, helps steer actions needed to separate from (or reduce reliance on) the system.

Properly executed, trading is one avenue to provide income that’s necessary to eliminate the need for a corporate employer (not advice, not a recommendation).

Market analysis also helps identify what’s likely to come next.

But, I digress.

Getting back to the coop; four eggs a day … equates to over two dozen a week. Reliance on the grocery store (at least for eggs) has effectively been eliminated.

About a year’s worth of feed has been stockpiled.

Let’s put it a little differently; a year’s worth of feed has been ‘stacked’.

Personally, I like gold and silver as much as the next guy.

However, those in charge of this collapse have already stated, food will be used as the leverage weapon.

But hey, we shouldn’t have to worry about any of that, because, ‘The future’s so bright …’

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold, In Mid-Air

We’ve Been Here Before

CME

As we’ll see in the charts below, gold (GLD) has pushed above resistance three times in the past.

Each time, GLD reversed.

Two of those had GLD print new post, 8/6/20, lows.

The average decline was -11.3%.

During that time, miners GDX, GDXJ, took the brunt of the action.

The last GLD draw-down (6/1/21 – 8/10/21), was about -10.2%, while GDX got whacked top-to-bottom with -28.2%.

At this juncture, miner’s downside price action looks to be leveraged by about 3:1, when compared with gold.

Gold (GLD) Analysis:

The un-marked chart:

The marked chart has the past three up-thrusts above resistance (magenta arrows) and our current potential; the orange arrow.

Note the typical distance price action traveled above the blue line resistance levels.

If GLD does not move any higher from this point, its current distance above resistance is typical when using the past three moves for reference.

Danger Point:

In the markets, anything can happen.

Price action in GLD and miners, GDX, GDXJ are each at their own danger points.

Counter-intuitively, this is where the risk of being wrong is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Senior Miners, GDX:

Taking the hourly chart of GDX and inverting it, gives us a chart similar to inverse fund DUST but without the tracking (bias) errors.

The inverted hourly chart:

Net downward price action is narrowing; less and less downward progress with each thrust.

This is an indicator we may be nearing the end of the move.

Helping that assessment along, is the next chart. The circled area shows Force Index is also dissipating.

Today’s session thus far, has essentially no more thrust energy when compared to the last two sessions.

Summary:

Price action in DUST, has gone a little farther (lower) than desired.

However, the analysis above tells us there’s nothing, yet, that would indicate an exit of the short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

One has to remember who’s on the other side of this trade; that is, the bull side.

The general public has been led to believe inflation is rampant. The media and various YouTube personalities have whipped them into an inflation frenzy.

Its become some kind of psychosis

Costs are going higher. That part is true.

The reason they’re higher, or at least a different perspective, is available to everyone via Uneducated Economist and Steven Van Metre just to name two.

As Van Metre said about a year ago concerning the actions by the Fed (paraphrasing),

‘Do you think the Fed is going to educate the public and tell them Quantitative Easing is actually deflationary?

No, they will allow the public to have the false belief their (Fed) actions have the opposite effect.

Just a reminder of what the guys above are really all about; Some additional info is here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … The Show Begins

Popcorn Ready … Asylum Freaks Out

You would think everybody’s escaped.

We have this link and this one and probably many more.

Those who’ve been monitoring this site already know, today has been in the planning stages for months.

This post was the first one to discuss the target area for a reversal in gold (GLD).

So, here we are.

So-called inflation is running rampant and it looks as if everybody’s in agreement.

Well, almost.

Turns out there’s a guy in the Pacific Northwest, a ‘boots on the ground’ type that sells lumber for a living.

Uneducated Economist never waivered on the fact, prices are rising as a result of supply constraints and not inflation.

There was one more as well.

Steven Van Metre has given his take on current monetary policies; they’re deflationary.

It’s a minority view.

Either way, we’re about to find out the truth.

Gold (GLD) Analysis

The fact GLD, has reached a target identified two months ago, gives credence to a potential reversal.

We’ll start first, with the un-marked weekly chart of GLD:

Now, the mark up:

It looks like we have a test of the original Up-Thrust (reversal).

In addition, today’s action (above black dashed- line) is another Up-Thrust.

Is this a reversal, within a reversal ?

The chart below zooms in on that area:

Everyone has their own investment/trading time-frame and method.

There’s no doubt, gold (GLD) is at the danger point. Price action can go either way.

Positioning:

The ‘inflation’ links above highlight current psychology and sentiment. The bull trap may be set.

As of this morning, we’re already positioned short this sector via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note:

A push below today’s DUST low of 17.27, does not necessarily negate the trade but it does (or will) bring it under scrutiny for potential exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold (GDX) Bulls … Time To Hide?

Late Session

GDX Breakdown, Draws Nigh?

We’re not there yet and anything can happen in the meantime.

However, Senior Miner’s GDX, price action has moved lower during this session as expected.

Today has offered up one more clue for the bears provided GDX closes lower.

That is, we may have a channel confirmation:

Fibonacci time sequences are not necessarily always at price extremes. As shown above, they can define the width of a trading channel as well.

If this short (sell) set-up fails (GDX moves higher), we now have a definitive stop area for inverse fund DUST (not advice, not a recommendation); somewhere around: DUST 19.80 – 20.00.

Steven Van Metre in his last update, gave data on how the dollar is in a rally and nearing breakout position.

So far, there’s still a negative correlation between the dollar, gold, and gold miners.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.