Note the websites having problems involve food, payroll services and of course, entertainment.
Separately, the dollar (UUP) just made a new weekly high as its rally continues. In Steven Van Metre’s Sunday Night update (time stamp: 18:01), if the dollar breaks higher above UUP 26 or 27, then “… all the wheels come off ….”
Which brings us to the gold market.
Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart
The chart reviews the recent up-thrust (reversal) that was accompanied by hysterical … bordering on unhinged insane press coverage of an imminent break higher.
Obviously, that didn’t happen.
In addition to the reversal and breakaway gap, there could be a trading channel as well.
That’s a good thing for the bears as it gives a more clear exit area … negation (or break) of that channel (not advice, not a recommendation).
Of course, anything can happen. The Fed announcement is about two hours away.
However, it looks like gold and miners alike, are not waiting around … potentially beginning their decline in earnest.
In Steven Van Metre’s latest update, he said no fewer than three times, the Fed ‘does not print money’.
It’s a false belief (by the public) they’re not about to change.
At the end if his video, he promised a report … or to make accessible his research on how that (not printing) is so.
Bringing us to the market at hand.
Monthly un-marked chart.
The main thing to note above, SLV, is not at new highs.
In fact, at today’s price, SLV is down over 57%, from its all-time high set in April of 2011.
That in itself, should say there’s something wrong with the inflation, hyper-inflation, narrative.
Using a standard Fibonacci projection tool and tagging the 2011 high, the 2020 low, and the 2021, retrace high, we get the following:
It’s a little hard to see … so we’ll zoom in on the right side.
The 50%, Fibonacci projection, is somewhere between SLV: 9.00, and 9.50.
The premise for declining past 38% (around 13.70) and getting at least to 50%, is predicated on the collapse of the economy and subsequent evaporation of silver demand … at least from an industrial standpoint.
The precious metals ‘stacker’, discussed below, might become more interested in obtaining food than continuing to stockpile something that in times of famine, has very little use.
As Bjorn says in ‘famine’, come this spring, when the masses realize there will be no (or very little) food and/or you need ‘papers’ to buy food, market pandemonium (if not already) is the likely result; precious metals included.
When To ‘Stack’
So, when will be the time to acquire precious metals (not advice not a recommendation).
It’s deceptively simple; ‘When you don’t want to’.
The time to acquire an asset, is when nobody else wants it … including you.
Positioning short the gold miners GDX, was done when everybody and their dog was a manic bull; screaming an upside breakout was “imminent”.
As Prechter said, positioning opposite the herd involves overriding the limbic system of the brain.
It’s an intellectual (logic-only, thinking) process.
However, overriding the lower brain, i.e., going against the herd, is physically painful.
Excruciating, is a better description.
He went on to say, some of the best traders/speculators he ever knew, were former Marines.
Coming up (most likely tomorrow) will be a chart showing positions opened in GDX inverse fund DUST (not advice not a recommendation).
There’s no obligation on this site’s part to reveal that information.
However, it will help explain how the market itself directed trading actions.
It will also show how the on-going reversal corrected several entry errors on my part.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The latest update from Steven Van Metre, has comments from the Fed that seem like they’re from another world, another time.
Evidently, the economy’s so strong … so good, that we might taper more aggressively and then … raise rates.
At this point, ‘what difference does it make?’
They’ve probably already cashed-out (like last time) and now stand on the sidelines.
Meanwhile back at the proletariat, we’re deciphering the market’s next moves … Fed press releasees notwithstanding.
Is Gold (GLD) The Black Swan ?
Frist off, there are several YouTuber’s that are providing an excellent service; letting us know the real state of the economy.
They are invaluable; thus, receiving their fair share of hate from those that don’t want to hear, see, or smell, ‘bad news’.
All of them willingly admit, they’re not experts when it comes to the markets … fair enough.
However, in Jerimiah Babe’s latest update, he may have unwittingly revealed a (or the) black swan.
Gold and the gold market.
JB’s offered the anecdote of attempting to purchase more gold at the dealer. For the first time ever, he was limited on the amount available.
From a market standpoint, the public, is all-in.
Even as we speak, gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ, are in a vicious downside reversal.
At this juncture, it looks like an upward test of resistance (discussed yesterday) is nowhere in the cards.
Price action for the most part, is straight down.
Which brings us to the charts.
GLD, Weekly Chart:
Marked up with resistance and the up-thrust reversal.
Zoomed area of the reversal
Because the gold hype by the financial press was so incessant for so long (which by the way, has strangely ‘disappeared’), this reversal may be something that lasts much longer than anyone would expect (not advice, not a recommendation).
The weekly GLD chart below has a Fibonacci projection tool overlay.
A 161.8%, projection would take GLD down to 119 – 120.
Are the gold bulls prepared for an extended downside rout in the metals?
Early morning food production.
It might not look like it’s connected to the markets but it is.
Market analysis presented on this site, helps steer actions needed to separate from (or reduce reliance on) the system.
Properly executed, trading is one avenue to provide income that’s necessary to eliminate the need for a corporate employer (not advice, not a recommendation).
Market analysis also helps identify what’s likely to come next.
But, I digress.
Getting back to the coop; four eggs a day … equates to over two dozen a week. Reliance on the grocery store (at least for eggs) has effectively been eliminated.
About a year’s worth of feed has been stockpiled.
Let’s put it a little differently; a year’s worth of feed has been ‘stacked’.
Personally, I like gold and silver as much as the next guy.
However, those in charge of this collapse have already stated, food will be used as the leverage weapon.
But hey, we shouldn’t have to worry about any of that, because, ‘The future’s so bright …’