Predatory Lending = Collapse

The Top, Is In

Just like the last bubble but worse.

That’s the assessment from agents in the field on the imminent real estate implosion.

Interest rates have risen dramatically, applications have evaporated, properties not moving as before, prices are dropping, lenders deploying the last resort; Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARM).

When the ARMs, show up in force, it’s over.

Technical & Fundamental

Over the past several days, the real estate situation has been assessed from both a technical (chart) perspective as well as the fundamentals.

The bottom line (below), is so long, it may have to be covered in several posts.

  • On a weekly and daily close basis, IYR has contacted underside resistance.
  • On a weekly and daily close basis, IYR has contacted the right side of a downward trading channel.
  • Multiple gap-fills at IYR, 91 and 94. Volume declines over – 22.5%, on the second gap-fill.
  • Multiple rising wedge breaks on multiple time-frames signal a potential drop of – 41.5%, from current levels.
  • Trading volume contracting (as price is rising) on multiple time frames, indicates potential lack of trader commitment to higher prices.
  • Financial press gets in the game (with several reports), saying ‘now is the time to buy’.
  • As highlighted above, once the Adjustable Rates dominate, the top is in.
  • This top may be far worse than ’07 – ’08, as debt levels are much higher, consumer is tapped-out and there is a massive ‘elephant’.
  • That elephant is now going mainstream with the resultant effect of unprecedented population decline/disablement.

So, let’s get started.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly Close

Un-marked chart.

Test of underside resistance

Zoom of underside contact.

Right side trendline.

Zoom of contact points.

Trading Channel

Wedge Break: Daily Chart

Zoom of break and test

Wedge Break: Weekly Chart

Note:

A measured move to 55-area, gets IYR, back to 2020 lows. That’s a reasonable expectation for an initial leg down.

If we use Prechter’s assessment concerning bubbles (manias), price action eventually retraces every bit (sometimes more) of the entire bubble move.

That puts the ultimate destination of IYR, somewhere in the vicinity of 14.0, or lower, representing a decline of – 88%.

Closing Argument

Remember this gold breakout?

It was going to be $3,000/oz., in months, not years.

Gold-O-Mania was coming. You could even sign up and pay money to read the group-think of the imminent launch.

Well, obviously at this point, $3,000/oz., is nowhere in sight.

Gold (GLD) is even lower now than it was then. On top of that, the ‘changing of hands’ assessment has not been negated; prices continue to grind lower.

Having the financial press cheerlead at the exact wrong time, is an (almost) necessary component to identify a lasting reversal.

As we can see here and here, the financial media’s position is, we’re heading higher. There is ‘real buying’ (whatever that is) for the first time in weeks.

However, from the chart evidence presented above (and we didn’t even get to ‘gap-fills’, ‘multiple wedges’, ‘contracting volume’ … maybe later), it’s hard to present that price action will somehow move significantly higher.

Price action behavior above, appears to point to an immediate or very near-term downside reversal.

Summary

Lastly, we have this from Activist Post: Real estate housing crash in progress.

Be careful. If you read the article, can you see the ruse?

It’s been discussed before on this site. That is, the real purpose of the Fed.

All is going according to plan.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Bulls/Bears

Fight Between Support & Resistance

Last Friday’s action was volatile with the op-ex short-covering apparently coming into play. Biotech was affected more than any other index.

If it really was short covering, then we already know what’s likely to happen next.

First, we’ll go over the charts and then build a case for the next probable direction.

The focus is on SPBIO, instead of IBB, as it’s the weakest of the two indices.

From a weekly standpoint, this is where SPBIO, left-off this past Friday.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Bar

Adding the mark-up to show we’re at support and resistance.

Getting closer in on that area.

We can see based on the price action itself, we’re at an important juncture.

Two years ago, in March of 2020, price action formed a support level.

Fast forward to now.

Price action bounced off that same level, attempted to move higher (for over three weeks), was rejected, moved lower, and last week, came back up for an underside test.

Most Probable Direction

If there was a short squeeze as a result of options expiration, fuel for that move is gone.

The options have expired.

in addition, that fuel was only able to get SPBIO, to the underside of resistance.

So, you can see where this is going.

Upside fuel is gone. SPBIO, is currently at underside resistance; most probable direction is down.

Measured Move

If the action from all-time highs during the week of February 12th, 2021, to the current support/resistance area is a trading range, then we may have a ‘Measured Move’ target as shown.

Under the current conditions, i.e., financial, societal, collapse along with the ‘elephant‘ going mainstream, a downside objective that’s an – 85.6%, decline from all-time highs, is entirely reasonable.

The 3X Inverse LABD, Weekly

The unmarked chart

First, the rule of alternation.

Last time is not this time.

Last time there was a reversal bar and the next week continued lower, then lower again and so on.

The rule of alternation says, whatever happened last time will not happen this time. Price action will (likely) have a different form.

Obviously, if the short squeeze referenced above is over and the trend remains down, one could expect LABD, price action to be higher at the next session (SPBIO, lower).

Positioning

The weekly chart shows progression and location of the stop orders on LABD-22-03 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The initial stop has been moved up to last week’s low.

There may be a trading channel as well.

Potential exit target(s) if not stopped out, would be contact points at the upper channel line.

Summary

If the position is stopped out at the next session, we’ll re-evaluate.

If not, and SPBIO, continues to move lower (LABD, higher), we’ll be looking for additional confirmation of the right-side trend line and the next likely area to move the stop.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Strategy … Going Forward

SPBIO, Correction Complete

This morning’s action in biotech SPBIO, indicates we’re done with the upward corrective move.

The prior short position LABD-22-02, was reduced throughout the downward push over the past week and then exited completely in this morning’s pre-market session.

Within minutes after the open, as LABD pushed lower (SPBIO higher), it became obvious, a significant reversal was at hand.

It took LABD, just a little over two minutes to clear out stops and then begin an upside reversal.

Amateur vs. Professional

Dr. Alexander Elder covers the amateur/professional difference in his book Come Into My Trading Room.

That is, if an amateur gets stopped out or exits with a loss, they never come back.

Even if the trade reverses to go their direction, they refuse to re-position … having been ‘spanked’ by the market.

Breaking free of the (engineering) perfectionist mindset, is just one challenge during the journey to professional.

It must be overcome to achieve sucess in the markets.

Re-Positioned, Short

All of the above to say, the short in biotech has been re-established: LABD-22-03 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The difference at this point is, there’s a high level of expectation on what’s likely to happen next.

As Wyckoff put it a century ago, the reversal and re-position, enables us to be ‘in tune’ with price action.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

We’re going to invert the chart and mark it up.

First off, we can see the rule of alternation at work.

Next, we have at least two potential trading channels.

This one …

And this one …

We’ll let price action itself define which one (or none) is in-effect.

When we get a corrective move that resolves itself, at times, it creates a pivot point with a different rate of advance or decline.

That means, there’s more than a good possibility, the second (more aggressive) channel, is now dominant.

Summary

As this trade progresses, we’ll cover potential areas where the existing position can be increased with as low risk as possible.

As this juncture, LABD is trading in the area of 55.25.

The early (pre-market) loss has been more than recovered and we’re now well in the green for the day.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Weekly, Wrap-Up

The Usual Suspects

No. 1

Carvana Fires 2,500 Employees

We didn’t see that one coming. Or, did we?

Just a quick review of this report posted over six-months ago:

“If your biggest claim to fame is that you ‘invented’ a vending machine … you’ve got real problems.”

“As the economy (if you can call it that) falls off the cliff, one of these two (CMX, CVNA), is not likely to survive.”

Well, looks like we have the answer on that one.

From the date of the report above to last Friday’s close, CVNA, is down -87.8%.

Measured from all-time highs, CVNA, is down -91.1%.

As CVNA, swirls down the drain of ‘disruption’, looks like it was only a blip in the land of ‘status quo’.

No. 2

The ProLogis ‘Connection’

Is this a re-print of a prior report?

No, the update below, is essentially a confirmation of the analysis in that (above) report.

Turns out that Amazon (link here) is in negotiations with chief cook and warehouse bottle-washer, ProLogis (here) about terminating massive amounts of lease space.

The entire affair, is an irrefutable confirmation of the Wyckoff analysis method.

That is, ‘the market itself defines it’s next likely course’.

Those on the inside always know something; that ‘something’ (i.e., their actions) shows up on the tape.

After the initial ‘ProLogis Connection’, a follow-up was posted that identified the largest down-thrust energy in ProLogis history.

From that report was this quote:

“We’re using PLD, as the proxy for the real estate (IYR) sector as it’s the largest cap equity.”

“That’s true for now … but maybe not for long.”

How quickly things change.

ProLogis is now the number two in the IYR market cap and very close to being third.

No. 3

Wealth Confiscation Coming Soon

The first two bullets perceived events before they happened, so let’s make it three-in-a-row.

This one’s pretty much a no-brainer.

During the last meltdown in 2007 – 2009, IRA retirement accounts came within a hairs-width of being confiscated.

This time around, could be for sure.

The following’s a section of a report written years ago.

It’s even more relevant now.

Begin Report

4/7/19

Government To Confiscate IRAs?  It’s Easy

There has been enough time for the American working (and saving) public to take the lessons of the 2007- 2009 meltdown and act accordingly.

One of those lessons would have been to realize, just how close they came to having their IRAs confiscated.

Personally, I’m surprised that any of the following links below are still active.  Well, who’s looking at this stuff anyway?  Certainly, not the general public:

Dems Target

Fact Check

Congress considering

Government to Confiscate (no longer active)

Confiscation of Private Retirement

Even in the Wall St. Journal:  Targeting your 401K

After reading several of these reports in 2009 and later, it did not take long for me to set the plan in motion to cash out … completely.  I took the 10% penalty, while it’s still 10% and liquidated my accounts.

The rest of the population?  Not so much.

I think it was Prechter who laid out just how easy it is for the government to seize IRA accounts.  It’s basically a two step process.

Step 1.  The market drops 50% to 70%.  Remember, the drop from 2007 to the bottom in 2009 was 58%.

Step 2.  Declare a state of emergency (executive order) for the working population and move in to “save” the IRA accounts from more devastation.  The result would involve a stiff withdrawal penalty (say 50%) and to “protect” the accounts from further losses, IRAs can only invest in U.S. Treasuries or Bonds.

It’s that easy. 

As stated previously, wealth does not necessarily mean gold and silver.  That too can (and has been in the past) be confiscated.

In fact, I and my firm are already operating as if the next crisis is in full swing and asset confiscation is the norm.  That way, we don’t have to come up to speed quickly in what may be an extreme stress situation. 

End Report

One could propose that (IRA) legislation is already written.

Just like the CARES Act was already written and submitted to committee in January of 2019, nine months before there was any kind of outbreak.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Last Time … is not … This Time

The Rule of Alternation

That’s it in a nutshell. What happened last time, won’t happen this time.

The market reveals its own secrets; you just have to know where to look.

An entire industry has been (purposely) built to make sure the ‘average investor’ never finds the truth of the markets.

That industry is the financial analysis industry; the one with the P/E ratios, Debt-to-Equity, and so on.

Sure, it was a tongue-in-cheek post to use the fact that Carvana had no P/E (linked here).

I’m not certain if they ever had a P/E; probably not.

However, that financial, i.e., fundamental(s) fact, did not keep the stock from going up over 4,529%, in four years.

It should be noted, the Carvana analysis was done on a Saturday (as has this one). At the very next trading session, CVNA posted lower, started its decline in earnest and never looked back.

Not saying that exact thing (timing it to the day) will happen with our next candidate real estate; as said before, part of Wyckoff analysis (a lot of it, actually) is straight-up intuition.

The good part from a computer manipulated and controlled market perspective, intuition can’t be quantified.

So, that’s your edge.

Let’s move on to ‘last time is not this time’ and see what the real estate market IYR, is telling us.

Weekly Chart, IYR

We’ve got the weekly un-marked chart of IYR, below.

The ‘alternation’ is there.

Here it is, close-up.

The first leg lower had some initial smoothness but quickly became choppy and overlapping.

Not so, now.

We’re essentially heading straight down.

Fundamentals

From a fundamental standpoint, real estate is finished. However, it’s been finished for a long time.

The fundamentals won’t and can’t tell anyone what’s likely to happen at the next trading session … or any other session.

The market itself (shown above) is saying the probabilities are for a continued decline; posting smooth long bars until some meaningful demand is encountered.

As shown on the last post, if the trading channel is in-effect, that (chart) demand is a long way down.

Positioning

Shorting IYR via DRV, has been covered in previous posts (search for DRV-22-02).

The following weekly chart, is marked up with two arrows.

Arrow No. 1

Initial short position via DRV was opened late in the day on April 28th; the day before the market broke significantly lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Arrow No. 2

As the market headed lower during the week just ended, the size of the DRV position was increased by 36%.

Currently, the gain on the total position is about +22%.

At this juncture, the DRV stop is located well in the green in the unlikely event we get a sharp IYR, upward move in the coming week.

Summary

Under ‘normal’ conditions one could expect some kind of upward bounce in the days ahead.

However, as shown already with big cap leader PLD, the situation’s anything but normal.

Highlighted in earlier posts, biotech is leading the way with SPBIO, currently down – 59.8%, from its highs.

Biotech IBB, with chief cook and (globalist) bottle washer Moderna (MRNA), is down – 36.2%.

As Dan from i-Allegedly has stated time and again, we’re already in a depression.

So, buckle your seatbelt Dorothy …

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Emerging Markets, After Squeeze

Has Risk Been Removed ?

The short answer is yes if you look at the EEM (daily) chart above (not advice, not a recommendation).

If this was a squeeze, and it has all the hallmarks, then price action will begin to erode …. quickly or not.

The good part, now it’s happened, it’s not likely to happen (exactly) this way again.

Prechter’s ‘rule of alternation’, effectively sates that what happened last time, will not happen this time.

Summary

EEM even now, is beginning to pull away from the resistance area.

It could still attempt to test. However, if it was short covering, those (stop) orders have likely been filled.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Drinking The ‘Gold’ Kool-Aid

Because You Can ‘Eat’ Gold, Right?

A military invasion of Ukraine, nuclear power plant (supposedly) bombed, set on fire, power outages and potential food rationing, yet gold’s still below all-time highs?

Not only that as we’ll see below, the actual price has traced out what’s so far, a counter-trend (a-b-c) move; that is, the main trend is down … not up.

I like gold as much as the next guy but we’re seeing again and again, that’s not the crux of the immediate (world-wide) plan on a go forward basis.

Dollar & Gold: Game Of ‘Chicken’

Like a game of chicken, both the dollar and gold rallying strongly together; waiting to see who’s going to reverse first.

What do you think?

With as much control as certain entities have over both the dollar and gold … who’s likely to turn lower first?

If it’s gold, then at this juncture (below), it’s in a good position for reversal.

Weekly Gold (GLD) Close

The yellow vertical lines above, are of equal length.

GLD could push slightly higher and still maintain the ‘corrective’ a-b-c, structure.

As labeled, price action fits the ‘rule of alternation‘. The structure of the ‘a’ wave is brief and sharp. The structure of the ‘c’ wave is overlapping and longer duration.

The Danger Point:

Gold (GLD) is there now.

Continued upward pressure would change the ‘reversal’ assessment, to potential breakout … much higher prices ahead.

However, as J.B., points out in this latest video (time stamp 9:25) saying, he’s never seen so much traffic on the roads … as if gasoline’s at 99-cents.

One answer could be, this is the herd:

Completely unprepared and running around to find another herd as equally unprepared.

Panic buying of precious metals because everybody else is doing it, could be the reason behind gold’s current juncture.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Intel … Off the Cliff

Four-Year Top

Kick-Off … To The Downside

A massive four-year top, along with the latest ‘road-map‘, has this one going down; most likely, for good.

While other chip makers, have gone to near stratospheric levels such as Nvidia, with its 23,960% gain from 2009, lows, Intel has languished.

The rest of the markets, S&P, Dow, QQQs, have pushed on higher while INTC, has spent the last four years, in a trading range.

A sideways market is a bear market.

Intel never recovered its luster after the Dot-Com mania of the 2000s. Price action spent eight years heading sideways-to-down before bottoming out in early 2009.

After that, it’s been a long struggle to current levels.

Now, the markets have reversed and the economy’s collapsing. We’ve likely seen market highs that won’t be repeated in the lifetimes of anyone reading.

Friday’s announcement may be the kick-off for sustained price action to the downside.

INTC, Chart Analysis

The daily chart shows at least one breakaway gap and possibly two.

The next chart is on the weekly timeframe and identifies the long, multi-year, topping pattern.

When looking at these patterns, be reminded about the scale of what’s happening.

This wedge is massive … at least four years in the making.

Note: Price action finished the day right at the lower support. There could be a rebound on Tuesday (market’s closed Monday) or we could just keep going lower.

The SOXX Connection

Intel’s fifth in market cap of the SOXX, with Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) at the top of the list.

Even the leader TSM, may not be immune to trouble.

Here are Fab locations for Taiwan Semi, located just off the coast of mainland China … nothing bad going to happen there, right?

And then, there’s this:

The SOXX, Drops

The SOXX, has been analyzed using Elliott Wave and Wyckoff.

Each method indicated potential for reversal.

In the case of the ‘wave’ analysis, if it proves correct, we’re possibly in for a sustained ride lower.

The daily chart of SOXX, shows each analysis point where a reversal lower was projected.

It’s clear from the chart and documented links, both methods nailed it … to the day.

Elliott was earliest and caught the exact point of inflection.

Wyckoff caught the test of the up-thrust.

Here’s the important part:

Wyckoff is a practical, bread and butter method. It looks at what the market’s saying about itself … is price action showing pressure to the upside or down?

Elliott Wave looks at where the market could be or is going.

If we’re really in an Elliott Wave Three down, it’s likely to be a decline like no other.

There are other indicators not market related, giving us hints, a massive collapse is ahead.

A Decline of ‘Biblical’ Proportions

Warning:

The following contains scriptural references.

Those who are in ‘it’s all a myth and fairy tales’ crowd, feel free to scroll to the ‘Summary‘.

For the rest of us, the secular world calls it ‘systems collapse’. The spiritual world calls it ‘judgement’.

Stated many times on this site, ‘the church’ is corrupt. Here’s just the latest salvo proving that point.

Along with the corruption, we now have the strong delusions prophesied over 2,000 years ago.

In reference to a Stew Peters broadcast, linked here, on the numerous media lies, is this comment (emphasis added):

“The only people to blame for this Stew are the ones who put on the mask, who distanced, who took the shot, who harassed other people and who advocated for my freedoms being taken away. Without doing five minutes of research.”

It’s not too much of a stretch to say, those who voluntarily injected themselves were (or are) in a place of delusion.

“And for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie:”

Also said many times, ‘The Speck’ as we call it, is a hoax. It’s a lie. It does not exist.

However, the injections are no lie … but the reasons for those injections are false.

Can this (spiritual assessment) really connect with what’s happening in the markets? How does it relate to actual price action?

Obviously, it can’t and shouldn’t be said that any specific price movement has been prophesied.

However, we can use the scriptural references to point us to the probability of events; the big picture, the situation at hand, the signs of the times.

The probability that we’re at some kind of major inflection point of Biblical proportions, seems exceedingly high.

Summary

Both Elliott Wave and Wyckoff Analysis, support the probability of lower prices ahead for the SOXX.

Because Intel (INTC) has been a laggard in the sector for years, suggests it may be one of the downside leaders.

As if to confirm the assessment we’re past the pivot, that generational highs have been reached, we have this just out, on ZeroHedge.

At the very bottom of the article, is a quote.

No, they’re not quoting from the King James Bible of 1611; they’re quoting from Shakespeare’s Richard III, of 1594.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

.

Herd Behavior … After The Top

Correction, Or Collapse

Structural Damage, SOXX

Even though technical conditions show we’re at least in a correction, if not outright reversal or collapse, record inflows for 2022, vs. 2021, present the herd-driven behavior of the public (and funds), to go long.

According to the link above, flows have been out of bonds and lesser performing equities, into equities that have gone down less.

In addition, you can see some of that flow (not addressed in the article) going into gold and the mining sector.

Stepping Back

Pulling away from charts and indicators for a moment, figuratively closing one’s eyes to get a ‘feel’ for what’s happening, it looks like the following:

We’re in a (potential) massive juggernaut reversal that’s been decades in the making; possibly having origins going all the way back to the ’87, crash, the ’95, bull market and then, repeated bubbles of 2000, ’07, and now.

At this point, it looks like the ‘average investor’ is doing the only thing they know how to do … that is, go long.

Those with at least some market knowledge, just got decisively whacked with their ‘put buying‘ strategy as the market has rallied strongly off the lows.

Pavlovian Panic

We’re witnessing the knee-jerk reactions of a public that’s been conditioned for decades, not to ‘think’, but only ‘do’.

Expect this type of behavior to go parabolic if the markets really do turn lower on a sustained, long-term basis.

Prechter has written extensively about crowds or the herd; especially in his text The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior.

We can see this visceral behavior real-time, in other seemingly unrelated markets. Two examples below:

First, we had oil futures going negative for the first time in history; then we have LNG tanker rates going negative first time as well.

The model seems to be:

“Everybody wants it, and then, they don’t”.

The crowd runs to and fro, effectively leaderless.

With that said, one can make a case we’re just beginning, or already in an economic collapse; now being followed by the early stages of a market collapse.

Meanwhile, The Elephant Gets Bigger

Let’s not forget the massive elephant that’s just now getting so large, it can’t be ignored (time stamp 2:40).

Recall the example at this link … disparate crowds have a tendency to come to the same decision and modify behavior, all-at-once.

You have to wonder, when that crowd is going to simultaneously press the Sell, button.

Hit, In The SOXX

Unprecedented events are everywhere. That includes the massive, ‘never before seen‘, thrust lower in the SOXX.

The uptrend shown in the weekly chart of SOXX, has been decisively broken and with enormous volume.

The week ending Friday January 28th, saw 16.7-million shares traded … the most ever for the index (ETF).

More detail on trend break

Then, There’s Elliott Wave

Before the ‘Elliotticians’ get miffed by the previous (cookie cutter) comments, here’s this:

When this method works … it’s great.

It provides good projection areas and the useful ‘Fourth Wave of Lesser Degree’, targeting.

Note: A quick internet search for this Fourth Wave method (authored by Prechter) turns up nothing.

Logging onto ‘Club EWI‘, putting in ‘Fourth Wave’ has no items found.

One can try contacting Elliott Wave International, to request a copy of this targeting method. It may still be available (for a price).

The data used by this author to target the 4th wave retrace (shown below), is from a hard copy, dated, 1/8/2003. That information was excerpted from The Elliott Wave Theorist, July 9th, 2002.

First, the 2-Hour chart from Thursday’s update is repeated below with the ‘lesser degree’, added in magenta font:

Getting closer-in on the 4th-wave area below:

It’s subtle and difficult to spot. The price action congestion area is the ‘4th wave of lesser degree’.

Summary:

The previous update showed entry points for what is now SOXS-22-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Friday’s price action put this position well in the green; getting it to +24%, based on the close.

The table below are the ETFs being tracked along with the leveraged inverse fund tickers.

The percentage gain/loss, is for this past Friday’s action and shown for the inverse funds.

Obviously, the semiconductors were hit the hardest on Friday and so, SOXS, had the largest gain.

A good stop level for SOXS would naturally be Friday’s low (not advice not a recommendation). If we really are in an Elliott Wave 3, down … price action’s expected to continue its decline with haste.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, Downside Reversal

The Elliott Wave, Connection

A couple of things first.

Number One:

This site does not use Elliott Wave as a primary analysis tool.

However, to be aware of the technique, will at times provide an additional edge … like now.

Number Two:

Once again, gold and the mining sector have become unbearable to watch.

The amount of hysteria, hype and bloviation serves to make this market all about ego. Ego is a four-letter word for the professional speculator/trader.

We’re leaving it alone for now and moving on to the market at hand: Semiconductors (SOXX).

Semiconductors, SOXX

On a Monthly basis, the chart below is the entire trading history for the sector:

The next chart zooms into the area(s) of interest.

This market, the semis, had its most powerful thrust lower in January, for the entire history of the sector.

The following chart is where it gets interesting.

Elliott Wave labeling as shown. If correct, Wave 3, down has just started (not advice, not a recommendation).

Warning:

My former mentor, the late David Weis, who once worked for Prechter, said the approach is a “cookie cutter” (his words) attempt to force the markets into a pre-defined construct.

With that caveat in hand and the understanding the ‘wave’ could fall apart at any time, let’s see what it would project if price action followed the current labeling and structure.

The daily chart shows a Fibonacci projection based on the Elliott Wave labels:

The projections are in percentiles of the first wave distance.

Elliott Wave rules are that ‘Wave 3’ can’t be the shortest wave. If the structure holds, that means Wave 3 (if that’s what we’re in) would go below the 100%, level and potentially to 161.8%, level.

To Trade, or Not To Trade:

This structure was spotted late yesterday … after abandoning the gold sector. There had already been the pre-requisite hype about CPI numbers and such giving the ‘excuse’ for markets to rise.

That meant risk of a short position (yesterday, early today) was low: not advice not a recommendation.

The chart below of leveraged inverse fund SOXS, shows entry points for what is now: SOXS-22-01

Summary:

Taking a cue from the late Dr. Martin Zweig, on his words during this broadcast, he was very hesitant to use the word ‘crash’.

So, this update is hesitant as well.

However, if the forecasted move of SOXX, to the Fibonacci projected 161.8% level (or more) is realized, it’s a decline over – 37%, from current levels.

It would be significant … crash or not.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.