Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It could be a slow grind, a series of ‘air-pockets’, or of course, not at all.
Using time-tested classical analysis, along with a dash of Elliott Wave, shows us we just had a terminating wedge ‘throw-over‘.
The video in the attached link, is brief and concise.
Throw-overs are (typically) major reversal indicators (not advice, not a recommendation).
As of yesterday, Friday, that’s where we are.
Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close
As seen with Nvidia, literally anything can happen. It could somehow recover, go sideways, or collapse.
If price action gets to the lower wedge, then breaks down, the ‘measured move’ for such a break, is -80%, to -90%, lower (not advice, not a recommendation).
Crash in The Past
The crash of 1899, shows us that just because we got past October without fanfare, a crash can happen at any time.
A prior update, written three-years ago, describes that crash, link here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
While all the focus was on them, back at the ranch, the SOXX reached another top.
Last time we looked, the index had an apparent Fibonacci count that has since been negated.
Robert Prechter said it himself decades ago, ‘price action form is first, then time’.
The SOXX then went on to post a new all-time high.
Semiconductors SOXX, Daily
Note yesterday’s bar posted a new daily low after the all-time high.
As the SOXX, oscillated in a narrow range, it became apparent we may be at a significant inflection; three separate shorts were opened, combined into one position as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).
Pre-market action (7:55 a.m., EST), shows the SOXX trading at 288.09, below yesterday’s low of 289.22.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Remember, markets typically move in the opposite direction first after the Fed, then resume their main trend.
On Friday, markets were generally higher on interest rate hopes. It’s called ‘hope’, as the Fed’s not actually done anything.
Let’s word that more accurately. The bond market has not (yet) told the Fed to lower rates. When it does (if it does), they will follow and present their case as if they are leading the market.
Decades ago, Robert Prechter Jr., in a research paper, proved this point. More recently, Ed Dowd repeats the fact, link here (time stamp: 37:48).
Markets were higher, including the SOXX, covered here, and in this update, airline sector Delta (DAL).
Delta Airlines, DAL, Daily
If there’s any one chart showing why this site primarily works the short side, this is it.
The last major move was an impulse downward, taking less than three-months.
The corrective move against the trend, has so far been nearly five months in choppy overlapping action.
DAL, finished on Friday at the Fibonacci 78.6%, retrace level (not shown). Unless the market decides otherwise, we’re in a terminating wedge.
Currently short DAL, as DAL-25-03, with stop just above Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Weekend Wait
Now, the worrying starts … we can almost write the mainstream media script for the next few days.
Why will the Fed need to lower rates? Is unemployment going to continue higher? What about all the mass layoffs? How will the consumer be affected … and on and on.
As a reminder, ‘alternate’ (real) unemployment numbers are here. We’re already at 25%, Depression era levels.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Goldman Slashes Tesla Delivery Estimates On Weak Monthly Trends, link here.
All of which feeds into the (EV) supporting side of manufacturing:
Chinese-Owned Firm Halts Construction On Battery Plant In America’s EV Heartland, link here.
Then, on the environmental side, yet another EV fire:
New Footage Shows Abandoned Cargo Ship Laden With Chinese Cars Burning In Pacific, link here.
On the political side, it’s hard to gauge:
Musk Hit Bessent ‘Like A Rugby Player’ In White House Fight, Bannon Claims, link here.
‘Very Disrespectful’: Trump ‘Assumes’ Musk Relationship Is Over, link here.
The reason the politics are important, is because of the subsidies, link here.
On the price action side, we have the following:
Tesla TSLA, Daily
Pre-market trading (as of 8:56 a.m., EST) is around 315.15, slightly below the 50% retrace level shown.
Unfortunately (for them), the ‘retail’ investor, is telling us where the probabilities lay (not advice, not a recommendation).
Retail Woes
Before we feel sorry for ‘retail’, we’ve all been there at one point. Robert Prechter Jr., said it best when asked, ‘What advice, do you have for the average investor?’
His response was timeless: ‘Stop being the average investor’
What’s Next?
We’ve just had the largest downward force in the history of TSLA, a rebound fueled by apparent desperation, price action at or near the 50% retrace (from the 5/29, highs); the overall probabilities have become clear.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 