Tag Archives: carmax

The CarMax Question

December 19, 2024 By in Biotech, Car Questions Answered, Interest Rates, KMX, Real Estate, Russell 2000 Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Something’s Not Right

If the future’s so bright for CarMax, with them beating estimates for earnings and revenue, link here, why did it sell-off immediately after the open?

Trading, (as of 12:20 p.m., EST) currently at 85.15, below well-established resistance.

As we’ve seen by now, relying on financial numbers, any numbers, is akin to a ‘snipe hunt’ (remember those?).

The prior update on KMX, said this:

“Let’s see if KMX, uses earnings as an ‘excuse’ for launch to 38.2% retrace level (or higher).”

Adding to that, we had ‘boots on the ground’, like this.

Now, based on price action, we have the potential ‘false breakout’, exactly as was forecast, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

CarMax KMX, Weekly

The breakout appears to be failing or has failed already (not advice, not a recommendation).

With other markets in full-blown melt-down like biotech, real estate, interest rates and the Russell, it’s possible CarMax adds one more economic reality to the mix no matter what the ‘numbers’ say (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Nears Breakout

December 3, 2024 By in Car Questions Answered, KMX, Wyckoff Tags: ,

A False Breakout?

A data-point of one, may not be significant unless that ‘data-point’, is repeated over and over.

That brings us to this link.

Do we have a ‘one-off’ event or is the data point being repeated?

To help answer, this site’s been monitoring what should be one of the fastest selling (used) cars in the market, Toyota Camry.

Scanning the CarMax inventory of Camry’s has the same cars (with minor changes) still for sale, since August, at elevated prices no -less.

Seems to corroborate the link above and makes you wonder what’s (really) happening?

With that, let’s move on to the potential opportunity.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

There’s a lot going on in this chart.”

“What do you see?”

The wedge is obvious.

Maybe a little more subtle until it’s pointed out, huge volume churn since the breakdown during the week of September 30th, 2022.

That’s over two-years of potential distribution.

From a Wyckoff standpoint using his ‘Cause and Effect’ analogy, whatever’s about to happen to KMX, it’s setting itself up for a potential, sustained, long-duration move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Earnings Release

Earnings scheduled for December 19th, before the open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Squeeze The Squeeze

November 23, 2024 By in CVNA, KMX Tags: , , , ,

… And Then, There’s CarMax

How long before the wheels come off?

As of Friday’s close, Carvana boasts a P/E, of 30,876.

Meanwhile, Carvana’s nearest competitor CarMax, has a P/E of 31.79, which in itself, is a bit sporty.

Caravana’s sales are less than half that of CarMax, yet its market cap is over three-times larger (source, www.tc2000.com)

Carvana’s ‘vending machine’ disruptive technology looks like it’s ‘worth’ an extra 97,000%, added to its P/E valuation (obviously, not advice, not a recommendation).

At the end of October, was this post, indicating Carvana may be in its final squeeze.

Since then, Carvana has inched itself higher.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

The two charts show that demand as measured by volume (spikes) has diminished significantly.

Moving in closer, we’ll look at a potential up-thrust set-up.

If we have just seen (or are in) the final thrust higher, the expectation is for price action to reverse down, then test the underside of resistance (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana’s earnings release is not until February next year, but CarMax, that’s a different story.

CarMax is set to post earnings on December 19th (or 20th), this year, during market hours.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279