Category Archives: Real Estate

Airbnb … 2nd (short) Attempt

August 31, 2026 By in ABNB, ABNB-26-05, ABNB-26-06, Real Estate 2 Comments

Watch The Volume

The last update on ABNB, link here, attempted a short (ABNB-26-05) at the location shown.

That trade was stopped out the very next day as price action pushed to a new daily high.

Now, a second attempt (not advice, not a recommendation).

The difference from today’s downside action as opposed to last Thursday’s is the significant increase in volume.

If ABNB manages to push higher from here and make a new daily high, then it’s time to step aside (from a short perspective) until the action becomes more clear.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Lowe’s Trade: 1%, per-day

August 28, 2026 By in LOW, LOW-26-01, Real Estate

Closing Out, For The Weekend

One could have a day-long discussion using just the chart segment at left.

From yesterday’s post, a higher open was expected and we got that.

Problem was that open did not (immediately) contact the right-side trend line and decay into a new daily low, closing lower (necessary criteria to hold short over the weekend).

Instead, it hovered just below yesterday’s high for most of the day.

The chart shows we’re right at support.

With that, LOW-26-01 was closed later in the day with a profit of 3.32% (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll see what happens at the Monday open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Lowe’s Heads Lower

August 27, 2026 By in Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LOW, LOW-26-01, Real Estate, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Repeating Trendlines

It hasn’t been the same for Lowe’s since the earnings release, link here.

Price action spiked on the news, formed an upthrust, tested that print, and now, reversed lower.

In addition, as the chart shows, we have a trendline.

On top of that, the very same rate of downtrend (with channel) has happened before.

Lowe’s LOW, Daily

Today was a gap-lower open (see zoom area).

It’s possible, LOW will come back (tomorrow) and close the gap while still remaining in the downtrend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget, Fed kabuki tomorrow morning. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Airbnb and Bonds (divergence)

August 26, 2026 By in ABNB, ABNB-26-05, Bonds, Elliott Wave, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Ox Talks, Real Estate, YouTube Black Swan 1 Comment

A Lot, All at Once

Potential shock ahead.

That’s one way to describe what could happen via ‘Looking for Black Swans’, with the chart provided by Elliott Wave International.

Ruh, Roh

Adding some more chaos to the situation, is this.

What’s going to happen when ‘fiddling’ doesn’t work; when everyone figures out the emperor has no clothes?

Airbnb ABNB, Daily

ABNB surged on earnings with a gap higher, wide price bar, and heavy volume.

It then posted several weeks of congestion which at this juncture, looks like a terminating wedge.

Short position located as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Home Depot to Rally?

July 22, 2026 By in HD, IYR, Real Estate, VNQ 1 Comment

Wait, What?

I thought Home Depot was going lower?

It did go lower … for three days.

Now, it penetrated support (blue line) and stopped.

Ruh, Roh Scooby.

If tomorrow opens higher and posts a new daily high, there might be potential to head back to the top of the range (not advice, not a recommendation).

Be on guard as HD is (loosely) correlated with real estate.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … ‘Throw-Over’

July 20, 2026 By in Real Estate, Up-Thrust, VNQ, VNQ-26-03

Back In The Range

Real estate VNQ, is at The Danger Point®, posting simultaneous events.

The chart shows a wedge ‘throw-over’ as well as potential ‘up-thrust’ reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate VNQ, Daily

Price action attempted to break out of the wedge, and above resistance, at the same time.

We’re at the spot where the risk (cost) of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Home Depot Reversal

July 15, 2026 By in HD, HD-26-01, Real Estate, Up-Thrust

Fibonacci Time Sequence

Home Depot posted its all-time highs years ago, back in 2024.

Since then, it’s been a series of trading ranges with nearly each one, resolving lower.

So, we have an overall downtrend.

The last update, here, presented a potential trading channel, and price action scenario needed to confirm:

“If HD, moves higher, then the set-up is (potentially) invalid. Lower, and we could be in the trading channel”

It turns out, price action did both; it opened higher, then finished outside-down, lower for the day.

The set-up was morphing into something else.

So, the trading action was to stand aside (not advice not a recommendation).

That ‘something else’, may have been today’s (potential) reversal.

Home Depot, HD, Daily

A Fibonacci sequence appears to be in-effect with pivot points, at Fibonacci intervals (so far).

It might not look like much, and if tomorrow’s high exceeds today, it won’t be. 🙂

However, the last up-thrust reversal (middle of the chart), initiated a decline covering around 60-points (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Home Depot … Lower?

July 11, 2026 By in HD, Real Estate 1 Comment

The Set-Up

Well, there it is.

You can see what the expectation is for the next open.

If HD, moves higher, then the set-up is (potentially) invalid. Lower, and we could be in the trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate’s ‘Outside-Down’

July 6, 2026 By in Real Estate, VNQ, VNQ-26-01

Another, Well Defined Risk

Vanguard Real Estate VNQ, posted outside down during the session just ended.

Before today, price action appeared ready to breakout to the upside; possibly, in a final summertime blow-off move.

Now, because of the reversal, that probability appears to have shifted to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Breakdown

May 17, 2026 By in Bonds, DRV, Interest Rates, IYR, Ox Talks, Real Estate, TLT

Bond Market Catalyst

The bond market’s on fire; yields screaming higher, bond prices lower.

Since the end of the forty-year bull market (TLT) in 2020, the view on this site, has been consistent.

That is, ‘unless there’s a market melt-down and even if there is, bond prices are likely to remain under pressure’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

That sentiment, recently echoed by Ox Talks, link here (Time Stamp: 6:40).

All of which, brings us to real estate.

Real Estate ETF, IYR, Daily

There were twenty-days struggling at resistance, forming a terminating wedge.

Day 21 (this past Friday) was the breakout to the downside.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279