Category Archives: Real Estate

CBRE Update

April 27, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, CBRE, CBRE-26-01, Real Estate

Tight Stop

The chart shows one interpretation of what’s going on with CBRE.

A short was opened this session with the stop as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update, left it open as to whether or not there would be more upside to test resistance (not shown).

So far, that’s not happening although the possibility remains.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SPG … Test Complete?

April 24, 2026 By in Real Estate, SPG, SPG-26-01

What’s Next?

The last update on SPG, said this:

“Since price action looks quiet, no big fanfare of the (potential) reversal, an upward test of some type is probable”

Yesterday, may have been that upward test.

Especially so, if we get a new daily low today (not advice, not a recommendation).

Simon Property Group SPG, Daily

Note how volume contracted by 33%, when compared to the prior session 🙂

An in-the-market hard stop is 205.66, with a discretionary stop at yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Simon Property Group

April 22, 2026 By in 2007 - 2008, Real Estate, SPG 1 Comment

The Pattern, Repeats

During the past two financial wipe-outs, Simon Property Group imploded.

From SPG’s highs in July 2016, to 2020 lows, SPG cratered -85.9%.

Before that, during the ’07 – ’09 meltdown, SPG followed suit with a swan dive of -80.4%, top-to-bottom.

Now, SPG is posting a repeating pattern.

Simon Property Group SPG, Daily

At this juncture, there are three possibilities:

Continuation lower, Upward test, then continuation lower, or Continuation higher.

Since price action looks quiet, no big fanfare of the (potential) reversal, an upward test of some type is probable (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

ProLogis … Stretched to Breaking?

February 16, 2025 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-25-06, Interest Rates, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TLT

Reversal and Test

The last update on ProLogis link here, said we had ‘evidence of a struggle’.

That struggle made one more attempt to move higher, posted a new daily high, then reversed.

In the process, real estate IYR, reversed as well; bonds, TLT, closed lower for the week (rates higher).

That brings us back to ProLogis.

ProLogis PLD, Daily Close

The labels correspond to the following S: Spring, U: Up-Thrust, T: Test

With this type of set-up, the expectation is for PLD, to post lower right along with real estate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver & DOGE

February 14, 2025 By in DOGE, DRV, DRV-25-06, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, IYR, Real Estate, SILJ, SLV

Gold-to-Silver Ratio 90:1

It certainly is a big number, link here.

The assumption these days, is silver’s ‘along for the ride’.

What ‘ride’?

Does anybody (thinking) think, silver and its green energy grift will survive a DOGE attack?

Asking for a friend. 🙂

Of course, just moments after the article linked above comes out, silver spikes and then gets mercilessly whacked.

The miners, GDX, GDXJ, SILJ reversed as well.

Silver SLV, Daily

If there’s going to be a continued move higher, then price action must exceed today’s high.

It’s at least a ‘line in the sand’ to prove the bears wrong (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, real estate (IYR) reversed to the downside

Discussion on that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

History Repeats (again)

February 10, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-04, FAZ, FAZ-25-01, Financial Sector, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, XLF

Another (repeating) Set-Up

This time, it’s the financial sector, XLF.

Top ten components for XLF, are listed here.

For today’s session (as of 12:27 p.m., EST), all but one of the ten are trading lower.

Financial, XLF, Daily

When looking at the chart, the set-up is obvious (not advice, not a recommendation).

Similar to yesterday’s update with ProLogis, XLF, made two attempts to push past resistance … that so far have failed.

Today’s action has ‘ease of movement’ to the downside.

The sidebar notes and open (short) position in XLF, as FAZ-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately:

The short in IYR, via DRV, was closed early in this session as PLD, made a (very slight) new daily high, indicating possible hesitation to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)..

It may still work out but the market that’s moving to the downside now, is XLF (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When The Analysis is ‘Wrong’

February 8, 2025 By in Dr. Elder, DRV, DRV-25-01, DRV-25-04, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Wyckoff Tags: ,

‘In Slow’ … ‘Out Fast’ (Dr. Elder)

The last update on ProLogis, PLD, proved to be (somewhat) incorrect.

There was no definitive assessment on direction, but from the sidebar, one could see an open short position in sector index IYR, as DRV-25-01.

That short was closed nearly immediately at the next session as PLD, ratcheted higher along with IYR.

Since we’re at ‘-04’, increment on DRV, there have been four attempts to position short with DRV-25-04, currently open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gain/loss (all positions) is near break-even, at -0.38%

All of which brings us to ProLogis … again.

ProLogis, PLD, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

The last earnings release for PLD, resulted in a wide bar on heavy volume.

Nearly instantly, and from a Wyckoff standpoint, we should know what that means … or what is probable:

The wide bar, volume, are likely to be ‘tested’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next update, we’ll discuss the Up-Thrust (reversal) condition for PLD.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

First, Real Estate … Now, Bonds

February 7, 2025 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-25-04, Interest Rates, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, TLT Tags: , , , 1 Comment

Rates, Back on The Rise

Yesterday, was the reversal set-up for real estate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, it’s bonds

The bond chart below shows TLT, in a near-perfect trading channel.

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

In addition to the channel, there’s a Fibonacci time correlation.

Or course, this could be the week (or next) where bonds break out to the upside.

Anything can happen.

For now, price action remains in the down-channel.

The next item shows we’re potentially at some kind of transition point.

Retail, ‘All-In’

Behind the scenes, reports like this, tell us the ‘retail investor’, i.e., the least informed and least disciplined participant is literally, ‘all-in’ the market.

What could go wrong?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate, Reversing Now

February 6, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-04, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

If The High (for the day) Holds

For those monitoring this site on a daily basis, it’s at the point where you know (or almost know) what’s coming next.

Over several years, the set-ups have been clearly laid out.

One in particular, the basis for most of the trades, is this: link here.

With that in mind, we have real estate, IYR.

The last update hinted that a reversal may be ‘imminent’.

Well, it’s been several weeks. So far, nothing … until today.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

The set-up (Spring-to-Up-Thrust) is obvious (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘risk’ on a short position is the high for the day.

At the time the screen shot was taken, that ‘risk’ amounted to 0.64-pts.

It’s not a contest to ‘be right’. It’s an effort to ‘minimize risk’.

Positioned short via DRV, as DRV-25-04, stop at session low, 26.25 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As this post is being created (11:27 a.m., EST) IYR, is starting the retrace some of the early session downside.

It could be a quick day-trade exit if the stop is hit; we’ll see.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Rout … Dead Ahead?

January 26, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, DRV, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Nasdaq, QQQ, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, SPY 1 Comment

Break, Test … and … Pause

Of course, in the markets, no one knows for sure.

However, what we do know as shown below, real estate IYR, has formed a terminating wedge.

In addition, it’s broken down from that wedge and is now testing the underside.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

With the Dow, S&P, and QQQs, at or near all-time-highs, real estate’s a laggard; posting its all-time-high, years ago.

Last week was a narrow-range bar.

On a daily basis, price action attempted to move higher twice and has retreated (from that attempt) each time.

Then, The Fed

Let’s not forget we have a Fed meeting coming up on Tuesday and Wednesday, this week.

Popcorn at the ready.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279