Category Archives: Real Estate

Airbnb … In Now, The Time?

October 24, 2026 By in ABNB, ABNB-26-13, Real Estate, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Testing The Test, Complete?

Before we get to the chart, let’s start with this from ZeroHedge:

US Pending Home Sales Collapse To Record Lows In September, link here.

Next, we’ll paraphrase a comment.

Note: If you want to see the direct quote, it’s the first one in the article:

‘The reason real estate is not selling is because of doubt. Doubt about the economy, war, the country and whether ‘normal’ will ever come back‘.

Well, we have news, ‘normal’ is not coming back.

We’re in a new paradigm.

With that, let’s remind ourselves on ‘why’ ABNB launched higher this past August 7th, link here.

The link is of interest, as it tells us the ‘official’ narrative.

Now, looking at what price action is actually doing.

Airbnb ABNB, Daily Close

The last update on ABNB, was here, where it said, price action is likely in an upside test.

At this point, we may have the beginnings of a reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Airbnb … The Big Picture

October 18, 2026 By in ABNB, Real Estate, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Testing The Test

Yesterday’s update showed how Airbnb tested its wide, high-volume breakout with its own wide, high-volume downside.

That move culminated on September 23rd, which in turn, set up a test of those high-volume bars.

All of this action brings us to now.

The chart below, is a 2-Day Close of ABNB, going back to late 2021.

Airbnb ABNB, 2-Day Close

At the right side, we’re using Wyckoff terminology of ‘Up-Thrust’, ‘Sign of Supply’ and ‘Test’.

The up-thrust action penetrated long standing resistance at the far left. Then, reversed lower with what can be called ‘ease of movement’.

Now, we’ve come back up to test the up-thrust area.

Going Nowhere, Fast

It’s true that ABNB has oscillated in a wide range that’s over 100% from lows to highs.

However, there’s been no sustained long-term breakout to the upside.

With that said, ABNB has been posting (since 2020) sideways action.

In Wall St. parlance, a sideways market, is a bear market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Airbnb … Testing its Reversal

October 17, 2026 By in ABN26-07, ABNB, ABNB-26-06, David Weis, Real Estate 5 Comments

Wide, High-Volume Bar(s)

Nearly twenty years ago, David Weis said in his training video:

‘Wide, high-volume bars, tend to be tested’

Now, twenty years later, we see that exact thing happening with Airbnb.

On August 7th, this year, ABNB launched 17.43%, with twice normal volume after an earnings release; links here and here.

So, we have a ‘wide, high-volume bar’.

What’s most likely to happen next?

Airbnb ABNB, Daily

What’s most likely, is the wide bar gets tested.

If we know that wide bars tend to get tested, then trades can be planned accordingly (not advice, not a recommendation).

After the launch phase and during the reversal, ABNB was traded profitably to the downside: ABNB-26-06, and ABNB-26-07.

With that said, what happens next, or what’s likely to happen?

We’ll cover that, in tomorrow’s update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Moderna’s ‘Measured Move’

October 12, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, Financial Sector, IBB, IYR, MRNA, Nasdaq, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI, XLF, XLV Leave a comment

From Resistance To Wedge … and Back?

The last update on Moderna, here, said that price action had slammed into resistance.

The chart shows that MRNA, has gone from resistance. to wedge, to measured move.

With the S&P and Qs, stalled at all-time highs, SOXX, DIA, XLF, IYR well off their highs with the biotech sector in an apparent reversal, one has to wonder what’s next (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Airbnb … 2nd (short) Attempt

August 31, 2026 By in ABNB, ABNB-26-05, ABNB-26-06, Real Estate 2 Comments

Watch The Volume

The last update on ABNB, link here, attempted a short (ABNB-26-05) at the location shown.

That trade was stopped out the very next day as price action pushed to a new daily high.

Now, a second attempt (not advice, not a recommendation).

The difference from today’s downside action as opposed to last Thursday’s is the significant increase in volume.

If ABNB manages to push higher from here and make a new daily high, then it’s time to step aside (from a short perspective) until the action becomes more clear.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Lowe’s Trade: 1%, per-day

August 28, 2026 By in LOW, LOW-26-01, Real Estate

Closing Out, For The Weekend

One could have a day-long discussion using just the chart segment at left.

From yesterday’s post, a higher open was expected and we got that.

Problem was that open did not (immediately) contact the right-side trend line and decay into a new daily low, closing lower (necessary criteria to hold short over the weekend).

Instead, it hovered just below yesterday’s high for most of the day.

The chart shows we’re right at support.

With that, LOW-26-01 was closed later in the day with a profit of 3.32% (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll see what happens at the Monday open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Lowe’s Heads Lower

August 27, 2026 By in Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LOW, LOW-26-01, Real Estate, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Repeating Trendlines

It hasn’t been the same for Lowe’s since the earnings release, link here.

Price action spiked on the news, formed an upthrust, tested that print, and now, reversed lower.

In addition, as the chart shows, we have a trendline.

On top of that, the very same rate of downtrend (with channel) has happened before.

Lowe’s LOW, Daily

Today was a gap-lower open (see zoom area).

It’s possible, LOW will come back (tomorrow) and close the gap while still remaining in the downtrend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget, Fed kabuki tomorrow morning. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Airbnb and Bonds (divergence)

August 26, 2026 By in ABNB, ABNB-26-05, Bonds, Elliott Wave, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Ox Talks, Real Estate, YouTube Black Swan 1 Comment

A Lot, All at Once

Potential shock ahead.

That’s one way to describe what could happen via ‘Looking for Black Swans’, with the chart provided by Elliott Wave International.

Ruh, Roh

Adding some more chaos to the situation, is this.

What’s going to happen when ‘fiddling’ doesn’t work; when everyone figures out the emperor has no clothes?

Airbnb ABNB, Daily

ABNB surged on earnings with a gap higher, wide price bar, and heavy volume.

It then posted several weeks of congestion which at this juncture, looks like a terminating wedge.

Short position located as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Home Depot to Rally?

July 22, 2026 By in HD, IYR, Real Estate, VNQ 1 Comment

Wait, What?

I thought Home Depot was going lower?

It did go lower … for three days.

Now, it penetrated support (blue line) and stopped.

Ruh, Roh Scooby.

If tomorrow opens higher and posts a new daily high, there might be potential to head back to the top of the range (not advice, not a recommendation).

Be on guard as HD is (loosely) correlated with real estate.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … ‘Throw-Over’

July 20, 2026 By in Real Estate, Up-Thrust, VNQ, VNQ-26-03

Back In The Range

Real estate VNQ, is at The Danger Point®, posting simultaneous events.

The chart shows a wedge ‘throw-over’ as well as potential ‘up-thrust’ reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate VNQ, Daily

Price action attempted to break out of the wedge, and above resistance, at the same time.

We’re at the spot where the risk (cost) of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279