Category Archives: Real Estate

Home Depot to Rally?

July 22, 2026 By in HD, IYR, Real Estate, VNQ 1 Comment

Wait, What?

I thought Home Depot was going lower?

It did go lower … for three days.

Now, it penetrated support (blue line) and stopped.

Ruh, Roh Scooby.

If tomorrow opens higher and posts a new daily high, there might be potential to head back to the top of the range (not advice, not a recommendation).

Be on guard as HD is (loosely) correlated with real estate.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … ‘Throw-Over’

July 20, 2026 By in Real Estate, Up-Thrust, VNQ, VNQ-26-03

Back In The Range

Real estate VNQ, is at The Danger Point®, posting simultaneous events.

The chart shows a wedge ‘throw-over’ as well as potential ‘up-thrust’ reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate VNQ, Daily

Price action attempted to break out of the wedge, and above resistance, at the same time.

We’re at the spot where the risk (cost) of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Home Depot Reversal

July 15, 2026 By in HD, HD-26-01, Real Estate, Up-Thrust

Fibonacci Time Sequence

Home Depot posted its all-time highs years ago, back in 2024.

Since then, it’s been a series of trading ranges with nearly each one, resolving lower.

So, we have an overall downtrend.

The last update, here, presented a potential trading channel, and price action scenario needed to confirm:

“If HD, moves higher, then the set-up is (potentially) invalid. Lower, and we could be in the trading channel”

It turns out, price action did both; it opened higher, then finished outside-down, lower for the day.

The set-up was morphing into something else.

So, the trading action was to stand aside (not advice not a recommendation).

That ‘something else’, may have been today’s (potential) reversal.

Home Depot, HD, Daily

A Fibonacci sequence appears to be in-effect with pivot points, at Fibonacci intervals (so far).

It might not look like much, and if tomorrow’s high exceeds today, it won’t be. 🙂

However, the last up-thrust reversal (middle of the chart), initiated a decline covering around 60-points (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Home Depot … Lower?

July 11, 2026 By in HD, Real Estate 1 Comment

The Set-Up

Well, there it is.

You can see what the expectation is for the next open.

If HD, moves higher, then the set-up is (potentially) invalid. Lower, and we could be in the trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate’s ‘Outside-Down’

July 6, 2026 By in Real Estate, VNQ, VNQ-26-01

Another, Well Defined Risk

Vanguard Real Estate VNQ, posted outside down during the session just ended.

Before today, price action appeared ready to breakout to the upside; possibly, in a final summertime blow-off move.

Now, because of the reversal, that probability appears to have shifted to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Breakdown

May 17, 2026 By in Bonds, DRV, Interest Rates, IYR, Ox Talks, Real Estate, TLT

Bond Market Catalyst

The bond market’s on fire; yields screaming higher, bond prices lower.

Since the end of the forty-year bull market (TLT) in 2020, the view on this site, has been consistent.

That is, ‘unless there’s a market melt-down and even if there is, bond prices are likely to remain under pressure’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

That sentiment, recently echoed by Ox Talks, link here (Time Stamp: 6:40).

All of which, brings us to real estate.

Real Estate ETF, IYR, Daily

There were twenty-days struggling at resistance, forming a terminating wedge.

Day 21 (this past Friday) was the breakout to the downside.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CBRE Update

April 27, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, CBRE, CBRE-26-01, Real Estate

Tight Stop

The chart shows one interpretation of what’s going on with CBRE.

A short was opened this session with the stop as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update, left it open as to whether or not there would be more upside to test resistance (not shown).

So far, that’s not happening although the possibility remains.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SPG … Test Complete?

April 24, 2026 By in Real Estate, SPG, SPG-26-01

What’s Next?

The last update on SPG, said this:

“Since price action looks quiet, no big fanfare of the (potential) reversal, an upward test of some type is probable”

Yesterday, may have been that upward test.

Especially so, if we get a new daily low today (not advice, not a recommendation).

Simon Property Group SPG, Daily

Note how volume contracted by 33%, when compared to the prior session 🙂

An in-the-market hard stop is 205.66, with a discretionary stop at yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Simon Property Group

April 22, 2026 By in 2007 - 2008, Real Estate, SPG 1 Comment

The Pattern, Repeats

During the past two financial wipe-outs, Simon Property Group imploded.

From SPG’s highs in July 2016, to 2020 lows, SPG cratered -85.9%.

Before that, during the ’07 – ’09 meltdown, SPG followed suit with a swan dive of -80.4%, top-to-bottom.

Now, SPG is posting a repeating pattern.

Simon Property Group SPG, Daily

At this juncture, there are three possibilities:

Continuation lower, Upward test, then continuation lower, or Continuation higher.

Since price action looks quiet, no big fanfare of the (potential) reversal, an upward test of some type is probable (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

ProLogis … Stretched to Breaking?

February 16, 2025 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-25-06, Interest Rates, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TLT

Reversal and Test

The last update on ProLogis link here, said we had ‘evidence of a struggle’.

That struggle made one more attempt to move higher, posted a new daily high, then reversed.

In the process, real estate IYR, reversed as well; bonds, TLT, closed lower for the week (rates higher).

That brings us back to ProLogis.

ProLogis PLD, Daily Close

The labels correspond to the following S: Spring, U: Up-Thrust, T: Test

With this type of set-up, the expectation is for PLD, to post lower right along with real estate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279