Biotech … Breakout or Breakdown

The Usual Suspects

During the past three months, biotech index SPBIO, has been oscillating, coiling like a spring; preparing for a dramatic move.

Then yesterday (Thursday), there’s an upside launch.

We now have price action instability; either the bulls or the bears are in control.

At this point, we don’t know who has the upper hand.

However, based on the list of recent news items below, it does not look good for the bulls.

Biotech’s Frankenstein

Within the past few days, we have this:

Deadline Passes For Pfizer To Submit Results Of Post-Vaccination Heart Inflammation Study To US Regulators

FDA Deviated From Normal Process In Pfizer Vaccine Approval, Documents Show

Former Employees Sue ESPN After Being Fired For COVID Vaccine Refusal

Lead Author Of Research On Pfizer And Moderna Trials Warns COVID Vaccinations Must Be Stopped

Pentagon Drops COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate For Troops

Let’s see if the market’s ready to hand it to this sector. What’s the price action telling us.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

The weekly chart shows the potetial breakout.

However, since we’re looking at this from a ‘going short’ perspective (not advice, not a recommendation), the chart following this one is inverted.

When we invert the chart, it takes on a whole different look.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly (Inverted)

If price action’s spent over three months getting where support has been penetrated only to have it fail into a reversal, the ensuing move has massive potential.

In Wyckoff terms, it’s cause and effect.

The ’cause’ has been three months of congestion. The ‘effect’ is a potential long duration, or wide volatility move.

Before The Open

It’s twenty minutes before the open and 3X leveraged inverse fund LABD, is trading higher by about +3.5%.

This is normal behavior whether we have a reversal or not.

One last check of ZeroHedge, before releasing this post turns up this:

Senator Questions CDC On Why It Claimed No ‘Unexpected Safety Signals’ For COVID Vaccines

The ‘monster’ continues to grow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Behind The Scenes

The Big Reveal

Was yesterday, the infection point?

Was that the day where irrefutable evidence like this is going to stick?

Price action of Biotech Sector IBB, has posted a long awaited and anticipated reversal signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll look at that below.

The IBB, Up-Thrust & Reversal

As a reminder, in Wyckoff terms, an ‘up-thrust’ is where price action struggles above known resistance for some period of time and then reverses to the downside.

In the case of IBB, that ‘struggle’ lasted an incredible seven-weeks.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

Price action attempted to break above resistance for nearly two-months, before reversing lower.

Then we had an initial test during the week of 12/23/22 (on the daily for three days), and a secondary test last week.

Biotech IBB, Daily

The daily shows more detail on the struggle.

Point No. 1, was the initial test. Point No. 2, was the secondary test which appears to have decisively failed.

Pre-market action shows IBB, set to open slightly lower.

If it does, then expectation is for some (brief) attempt to rally as a test of the breakdown.

The Driving Force

For years, this site has not wavered in the assessment, what’s happening in this sector, will be the driving force for the entire market on a go-forward basis (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything can happen.

It’s unknown if yesterday was ‘the day’.

What is known however, evidence is building on a massive scale. Every day, sometimes multiple times a day, we see the effects.

Positioning

This site presents the data, the insight and price action nuances. It does not give recommendations.

With that said, going short this sector is not as straightforward as the other major indices.

IBB, may be shorted directly but will likely result in a maintenance fee from the broker.

Of course, that puts one on the hook for the sector’s dividend payment (currently yielding 0.31%).

The other option is 2X leveraged inverse fund BIS.

However, this fund’s volume is thin … meaning it’s not nearly as liquid as the other inverse funds such as SDS, DXD, QID, SOXS and so on.

It’s up to the trader/speculator to participate or not.

We’re about fifteen-minutes before the open. Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Claus & Effect, The Next Wave

Unprecedented … Again

Nefarious forces operate in distraction and darkness.

“And this is the condemnation, that light is come into the world, and men loved darkness rather than light, because their deeds were evil.”

The year 2021, was the year everyone (except children) showed their true colors; they made their decision, knowingly or not, for darkness or light.

This year, 2022, is where the effects (or ‘side effects’) of that decision began to take hold.

Now, as 2023 approaches, we’re likely to move into the realm of unprecedented chaos and collapse.

As if on cue, under the cloak of this week’s holiday distraction, we have what’s possibly the next wave.

This could be the reason as presented in the last update, why biotech appears to be in the early stages of disconnecting from the overall market.

That separation may continue or not; price action is always the final arbiter.

The ‘Woke’ Go Broke

The useful idiots that comprise the ‘woke’ business crowd may be in for the biggest surprise in the coming year.

If there is one overriding theme to keep in mind for 2023, this could be it.

Separate enclaves are now forming of those who have not, will not, and are not going to go along with the ever more unbelievable narratives.

Here is a link to just one of those enclaves.

As a digression; in Texas, we’re just now coming out of yet another record-breaking cold spell.

That’s two, never before seen record breaking low temp events within the past three years!

How does that fit with the global warming narrative?

Anyone awake knows full well what’s going on … and it’s not global warming.

Who’s On First: NFLX or TGT?

Now that vending machine Carvana (CVNA), is out of the way, who’s next?

Partly as a result of economic decline and partly from the decision to take consumer spending elsewhere, Netflix and Target now appear ready to continue their implosion.

More on their technical chart conditions in the next update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Disconnects & The Claus

Naughty or Nice ?

Biotech price action’s disconnecting from the rest of the market.

Around the last Fed meeting, biotech separated from the major indices, heading the opposite direction, i.e., sideways to higher.

We’ll see that as we get into the snapshots of the hourly charts (below), but first several clues on why biotech (so far) isn’t going along.

The Next Plan Rolls Out

First up is this, just out on ZeroHedge.

It appears the next push is on … and the target is the kids. Another wave of ‘protection’ is certain to boost profits.

Note: Those commenting on ZH have been ‘awake’ from the start; an invaluable resource.

Next up is this, just out on BrandNewTube; another clear thinker that helps ‘tie it all together’.

Is this the explanation for biotech’s current behavior?

Strictly speaking and from a Wyckoff perspective, we won’t know the real reason for a move until it’s nearing the end.

What we can see, is that character of price action has changed (again).

With that, we’ll look at the 3X, leveraged inverse funds of two indices, Russell 2000 (TZA) and SPBIO (LABD).

TZA & LABD, Hourly

The disconnect has been a recent observation.

We’ll drill right down to the hourly and put the charts one on top of the other.

We can see that while inverse TZA, is now back up to the pre-squeeze high, inverse LABD, is far below that level.

That’s not to say things can’t change quickly.

For now, however, there may be something else going on that’s keeping the sector buoyant and suppressing the LABD, inverse fund.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Kick-Off … and, Biotech

Biotech, And The Next ‘Event’

Now, it all makes sense.

The solstice was yesterday.

Hard reversal in the market, today.

Then, there’s biotech; stubbornly refusing to break down.

First, Some Housekeeping

Before we go any further, from a housekeeping standpoint, all biotech short positions have been closed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Each apparent downside breakout attempt for the past three months, has been thwarted. There is something else going on.

Possible reasons for biotech’s resilience can be found here, and here and here.

Hint: There’s another planned ‘event’, on the way.

Now, back to the markets.

All major indices are sharply lower but for this update, we’ll focus on the Small Caps (Russell).

Russell 2000 IWM, Daily

Instead of starting with the big picture and longer timeframes, we’ll get straight into why today’s action may be significant.

Yesterday, price action attempted to ‘spring’ off the support boundary. Today, that spring has apparently failed.

Failed moves bring out the other side in force; in this case, the bears as it’s obvious the opposing side, the bulls, are exhausted.

It’s getting late in the session (2:50 p.m., EST) and the expectation is for a lower close.

If this really is the kick-off to the downside, then we’ll expect some kind of follow through at the next session.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Now, Comes Deflation

The ‘Pivot’, No One Expects

Happy days are here, again!

So, the Fed can pivot, and the bull’s on again.

At least, that’s what the media wants us to believe. The CPI is out, and ‘inflation’ has slowed.

The problem is, as Michael Cowan stated in this update (he’s done the work), from here, it does not matter what the Fed does.

The decline (crash) or whatever you want to call it, is baked in the cake.

Once deflationary forces start, it becomes a juggernaut.

The previous update on gold (GLD) showed in multiple time frames, upward thrust energy is dissipating; in at least one case, (weekly) it’s also divergent.

Now that we’ve had yet another blip higher, as expected, it’s rabid bullishness in the gold camp.

So, let’s look at what GLD, is actually doing. What does the market say about itself?

Gold (GLD), Daily

One thing is for sure; GLD, is at The Danger Point®

If GLD can’t hold above (and move above) this level, it may be in serious trouble.

Let’s look at it a different way … the terminating wedge.

A ‘wedge’ is typically the last pattern in a move up or down, hence the name.

As this post is being created (12:23 p.m., EST), GLD continues to decline from its open; currently sitting right at the resistance (potential support) level at the 168-area.

In a separate market, biotech SPBIO, has completely reversed its opening spike and is now posting lower.

We’re still maintaining the LABD-22-14 trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s CPI print and resulting price action, may be the kick-off to an overall sustained and persistent decline.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Breakdown, Imminent

Waiting For A New Daily Low

Price action leads the news.

As with the Carvana analysis, a year ago which said CVNA, would likely not survive, so too it would appear, biotech is about to join the ranks.

Join the ranks but for different reasons.

Price action leading the news was a concept presented decades ago by Robert Prechter Jr., as part of his Elliott Wave Theory.

His view was the market indicates ‘social mood’; in that case, the market must go down first, before the bad news comes out.

In effect, the public has to be ready and actually want bad news and/or be ready for unexpected, cataclysmic events.

It’s the complete opposite of the accepted mantra, from financial advisors and media alike.

The bear flag in biotech SPBIO, has been forming now for three months. In the history of this sector, there’s never been anything like it.

The last update said there’s been a change in the character of price action; that SPBIO, is heading lower and about to threaten the bottom of the flag.

As we’ll see from the daily chart, indeed we’re getting close.

At this point, there’s no apparent demand for the upside.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

The change in character is clear. We’re pulling away from the top of the flag and now, hovering at the lows.

Switching gears and going to the 3X leveraged inverse fund LABD, on the daily basis, we see repeating trend lines.

SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

As the magenta arrow shows, we’re looking for a new daily high in LABD, to confirm the trendline; that high would naturally correspond to a new daily low in SPBIO.

As of this post (1:02 p.m., EST) neither one has occurred.

Summary

Even as the overall markets are mixed to slightly higher, SPBIO, is posting down – 1.51%; a possible indication it may lead to the downside.

Just exactly what ‘news’ is about to come out is unknown.

However, at this juncture with action pressing lower, it appears, the market is ready.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

LABD-22-14

Entry@ 18.905, 18.95*** Stop @ 18.36***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Bear Flag, Break ?

The Character Has Changed

It’s been more than frustrating attempting to short biotech.

So far this year there’ve been thirteen attempts; some successful, but most were not.

None of the attempts have captured the ‘big move’ that’s overdue for this market.

The last post essentially gave up on biotech, but it seems like the potential just won’t go away.

This time, over the past two days, the character of price action has changed.

Re-capping briefly, biotech SPBIO, has been in a bear flag for over two months.

During that time, it’s been oscillating and coiling; looking for a breakout to the downside.

As of this post, there’s no breakout yet but we’re heading to the bottom of the flag, with a change of character.

SPBIO, Weekly

It’s important to note, the pattern below, is unique.

The sector data goes way back to April of 2009. During its trading history SPBIO, has never posted a bear flag with a two-plus month duration.

An expanded version of the chart is below:

Now, comes the interesting part.

Going to the hourly, we have a trend line and a breakdown of intermediate support in the SPBIO 6,390-area.

This is the change of character.

SPBIO, Hourly

Note that we’re deep within the bear flag and at the right edge of price action.

We’ve got the trendline as shown.

Price action during yesterday’s session, contacted that line six consecutive times.

As of this post (12:50 p.m., EST), price continues lower.

Summary

So, is this ‘the big one’?

The correct answer is that it’s unknown.

What we do know however, just by looking at what the market is saying about itself; there’s been a change, at least in the past two days.

Price action’s breaking through support levels and heading for the bear flag lows in the vicinity of SPBIO 6,125.

A reasonable expectation is for some kind of a bounce if or when it hits this area.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

DRV-22-06: Closed***

Gain + 5.61%

Re-opened biotech SPBIO Short (not advice, not a recommendation)

LABD-22-14***

Entry@ 18.905*** Stop @ 18.39***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Set-Up … Goldman, ‘Gives Up’

Right At The Pivot

That’s the way it looks at this point as we’ll see below.

The ZeroHedge article in question, is linked here.

You can see, it starts off (before being grey-ed out) with referencing the Non-Farm Payrolls report; a report, that another article calls ‘rigged’. So, there’s that.

With each passing day, it’s ever more apparent, price action itself, is telling us the most probable market direction.

Just to prove the point, Blackstone’s sending out a ‘talking points‘ memo to keep clients calm and help ‘guide the conversation’ … i.e., ‘thought shaping’.

Thoughts ‘shaped’ or take action.

For this update, we’re taking action; looking at what the real estate market is telling us.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

Let’s go back to the IYR, update from late October.

It showed the most probable direction; a move higher into a test, giving both the location, and the date.

Fast forward, to now:

We’re right at 38.2%, retrace and on time with Fibonacci Week-8, from the lows.

The daily chart shows a possible up-thrust (reversal) and test … the very same day that Goldman ‘gives-up’.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Not shown on the daily; from the lows, October 13th, to the (print) high, December 1st, is a Fibonacci 34 (+1) Days.

Volume increased on the reversal bar December 1st, and then contracted on the upward test the next day … pointing probabilities to the downside.

Printing a new daily low at the next session, will help confirm the reversal.

Summary

Let’s see what happens next.

The Goldman report may be contrary indicator; telling us the ‘professionals’ are throwing in the towel, changing their approach right at a potential top.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

LABD-22-13: Closed

It’s become apparent from this article; the truth, that was counted on as a tail-wind (for a short position) is not going to come out anytime soon.

Those that know, already know.

Moving on to other markets (below) that will be affected by the consequences of biotech.

DRV-22-06:

Short real estate IYR, via DRV (not advice, not recommendation)

Entry @ 48.39***: Soft Stop @ 47.53***, Hard Stop @ 45.11***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Forecast … Pivot or Not

Multiple Scenarios, Going Forward

The ability to see multiple scenarios is like a Rorschach Test.

With each additional tick on the chart, it takes on a different character.

So, let’s look at what’s most likely, based on where we are now with one of, if not the weakest sectors; biotech SPBIO.

For reference, we’ll start with the big picture … the weekly chart to show the two-month long, bear flag.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

Next, is the daily for the past several months.

We’re at The Danger Point®; the test, where there’s not much distance between pass and fail.

Price action can (easily) go either way.

SPBIO, Daily

However, from a probability standpoint, we’ve been in a bear flag for months; the expectation is the test will pass, price action reverses and we get a downside breakout.

The hourly chart has the most likely potential outcome.

Pre-market action shows flat (as of 9:08 a.m., EST).

SPBIO, Hourly

The chart has two likely scenarios: one pass, one fail.

A less likely outcome is a straight up launch above resistance.

However, anything can happen.

Summary

With the Fed out talking hawkish again, we’ll say it again; there is no ‘pivot’.

Whether or not the press is intentionally miss-directing the narrative, in a sense, does not matter.

We’re looking at the price action.

Right now, it says, we’re at a dangerous spot and may be about to pivot (pun intended) to the downside.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

No change since yesterday.

Short position in SPBIO via LABD; details are as follows:

LABD-22-13:

Entry @ 18.72: Stop @ TBD

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279