Category Archives: Biotech

Biotech … ‘A Sneaky Suspicion’

May 14, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, XBI Leave a comment

On Target, On Time

The last update on biotech XBI, ended with this:

“However, it’s just a sneaky suspicion, XBI may try to inch itself past the daily highs of April 9th, and April 11th (not advice, not a recommendation).”

Fast forward to now and here we are.

We’re at Fibonacci 55-Days, from the closing high on February 27th; today’s price action opened the session by penetrating highs of April 9th and April 11th.

Doing so, puts XBI in up-thrust (potential reversal) position.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We can say, XBI is at The Danger Point®

As this post is being created (10:34 a.m., EST) price action appears to be eroding from the early session push higher.

The typical market characteristic for XBI, is to retest in the second hour or so of trading; in this case that would mean a move back to the highs.

If that does not happen, it adds weight to the potential reversal scenario (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Nears 50% Retrace

May 6, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Will That Be The Top?

When we last left biotech XBI, a push higher into a potential stop-zone was expected, link here.

‘The tape is always right’ as they say, and price action, somewhat unexpectedly, blew past those stop levels.

At this point (12:27 p.m., EST) we’re nearing the 50% retrace on the XBI. That level is somewhere around XBI, 92.28-ish. Currently XBI is trading at 90.12, about 2-points away.

We’ll do a little experiment with the weekly chart by inverting it to show the longer-term view.

Biotech XBI, Weekly (inverted)

Note the MACD lines are still crossed to the upside.

One way to look at the action is that we’re in a test of the spring set-up (up-thrust, non-inverted).

The retrace to the 50% level may have already happened with last Friday’s action.

However, it’s just a sneaky suspicion, XBI may try to inch itself past the daily highs of April 9th, and April 11th (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

If, I Was Short Biotech …

April 30, 2024 By in Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI, Richie Naso 1 Comment

Where, Would I Put My Stops?

As former floor trader Richie Naso says, ‘You have to think like a criminal’ (time stamp 10:50).

Using his example, a market-maker executes orders ‘to create liquidity’; where on the chart of biotech XBI (below), would that bundle of ‘order’ liquidity exist?

Biotech XBI, Daily

The purple oval shows where there’s a potential of congregated ‘stops’.

Also note, the MACD cross.

This trigger signal is on the Daily MACD, only as the weekly shows longer term momentum continues lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, XBI has broken out of previous trend channels and so, we have a new construct.

Positioning

Presently, I have no open positions in biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).

Back in the day, I would likely be holding short, placing my stops exactly at the location of the purple oval.

Let’s see if the market searches out my old stop location that if hit, would have taken me out of position (via LABD) right in time for a potential reversal to the downside. 🙂

Reminder, Fed interest rate announcement tomorrow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Deep Kimchi Decision

April 27, 2024 By in Biotech, Bloor Street Capital, Ed Dowd, Genesis 41, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, NEM, Real Estate, XBI 3 Comments

Time To Round Up, The Loonies?

If there’s one market attracting huge numbers of grifters, carpetbaggers, peddlers, and all-around crazies, it’s precious metals.

I’ve been hearing from this crowd, ‘the government’s going to collapse, the dollar’s going to collapse’, since the early 1980s.

As said many times before, I like precious metals as much as the next guy.

However, from a strategy standpoint, with each passing day, we see it’s the food supply (here, and here) that comes first (not advice, not a recommendation).

What’s currently taking place is so much more complicated (in my opinion) than just ‘stacking’.

Let’s not forget the flood of ‘fake’ or ‘diluted‘ precious metals and other chicanery; like having your coin-shop bank account closed for no apparent reason.

Well, we have to keep the loonies on the path which brings us to our case in point, Newmont Mining, NEM.

Newmont, Good News is Bad News

Gold price has moved higher over the past four to five months and expectedly, that’s been noted in Newmont’s latest Quarterly release, link here.

NEM, stock price at ‘nine-month highs’, what’s not to like?

It’s when we look at the chart, we see a different story.

Newmont Mining, NEM, Weekly

After all the ‘good news’, NEM has only retraced an anemic 23.6%, of its overall downside move.

Note the close on Friday was right at the 23.6% level, giving it even more significance.

This level has also become an ‘axis line’ as exhibited by price action going back to August of 2022.

By The Numbers

When looking through the major sectors, retrace (and reversal) from 23.6%, is becoming more frequent.

Two other indices posting and reversing from that level (measured from recent highs), are biotech XBI, and real estate, IYR.

NEM, What’s Next?

Thursday, 4/25, was a wide bar with heavy volume.

We’ve stopped at the retrace, which is also resistance, confirmed by price action in late December. ’23.

A reasonable expectation is NEM, retraces, testing the wide bar and volume before continuing to the downside or moving back higher to a breakout (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Market Perfection … Does It Exist?

April 25, 2024 By in Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI, Katie Hopkins

When Everything Lines Up

Perfectly Imperfect.

The insert at left, is a picture of the Romanesco Italia Broccoli.

Is it perfect, imperfect, or perfectly imperfect?

When looking at the current biotech chart (below), the same question may be asked.

At this point, Fibonacci correlations are perfect. The counts, the retrace, the channel widths.

The imperfect part is, where the count started.

It was not at the ‘print’ top, the ‘closing’ top, but at the location where there was a ‘change of character‘.

Not In Any Book

There are many books covering Fibonacci; the retrace levels, projections, counting from highs to lows, and so on.

However, I have not (personally) seen in any book, starting a count that was not at the top or bottom of a move.

So, what else could the biotech sector (XBI) be doing this morning, that’s not covered in any book?

Biotech XBI, Daily

First off, let’s not forget why this sector may be down from its highs (February, 2021), as much as it is. This link may help as a reminder.

As the chart implies, the question for the day, or days ahead is, ‘will today’s opening gap-lower, be filled?’

The market itself has shown, at times, it will fill the gap and at other times, will not.

At this juncture (11:20 a.m., EST), XBI has penetrated the prior daily low (of 4/19) and has set up the condition of potential (minor) spring.

Price action’s rising as of this post but appears to be struggling on its way higher.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Stretched … Squeeze … Over?

April 23, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, LABD, SPBIO, XBI

Do We Have A Channel?

How do you know if it’s a countertrend move, or an outright reversal?

Do you stay with the trade or, as Dr. Elder said, ‘do you just take the money and run?’

For biotech XBI, it’s been a nasty two days of upside for any short positions, but the real question is, are we there yet?

Looking at the charts below, you’ll have to decide for yourself.

However, from my perspective, it’s possible that ‘today is the day’; meaning, we may be at the top of the correction (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

The chart is self-explanatory.

From the day a ‘change of character’ was identified to last Friday’s low, is a Fibonacci 21 days.

From that low to today, is a Fibonacci 3 Days.

We’ll compress the chart scale for a bigger picture view of the current action.

Also included is the grey centerline, showing the channel has a symmetrical ‘look’.

Also note, we’re at a 23.6%, retrace at the day’s high (thus far) and price action appears to be eroding downward.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When Fibonacci, and P&F, Agree

April 21, 2024 By in Biotech, LABD, Wyckoff, SPBIO, $SPSIBI, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute, XBI

For Biotech, Both Projections Match

When’s the last time you saw a P&F chart on any (other) website or YouTube, channel?

My guess … probably a long time ago, or never.

Even StockCharts, recently revamped their site, removing the landing page option for P&F. It’s still there, but you have to search to find it under ‘more tools’.

If we’re going to be using Wyckoff analysis to determine the most probable direction for the market (and how far it could go), then P&F analysis is part of that effort.

For our biotech example, XBI, we’ve used two projection methods to see where price action is likely to go if we have a sustainable downturn in progress.

Biotech XBI, 3-Point P&F

As a reminder, ‘3-Point’ means before an ‘X’ or ‘O’ is charted (for reversal), the index must move at least 3-points.

Based on the P&F action itself, we have a projection range (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, comes the interesting part, Fibonacci projections.

Biotech XBI, 8-Day, w/Fibonacci

The Fibonacci projections are shown as the blue lines.

The P&F projections from the chart above, are overlaid as the magenta lines.

Of course, projections do not guarantee anything.

At the next open, XBI could launch itself into a upside reversal; not likely, but it could happen.

Wyckoff Cause & Effect

What we’re doing here, is adhering to Wyckoff discipline from his stock market course material (still available here).

No position, long or short is entered unless there is sufficient cause i.e., P&F count for a sustained move.

Note: I have no affiliation with the Stock Market Insitute and do not receive any compensation from them.

In the case of biotech XBI, above, it literally has spent years generating a P&F count; the ’cause’.

The ‘effect’, is the actual move; now potentially in progress.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, XBI … Implosion

April 19, 2024 By in Biotech, LABD, David Weis, SPBIO, Elliott Wave, $SPSIBI, XBI

And Then, There’s ‘Elliott Wave‘

We’re heading into the weekend. Who wants to be ‘long’ this market?

Bueller? Bueller?

In the case of biotech XBI, it may have started the ‘dynamic phase’, suggested two days ago, in this update.

Then, there’s Elliott Wave.

Back in the day, while being mentored by the late David Weis, he revealed his ‘love/hate’ relationship with the method.

His quote to me was “Intermittent reinforcement, is a hook”; meaning, it works just well enough (but not profitably enough) to keep you coming back to ‘get it right’ next time … which never comes.

For me, I’m not going to use the approach for trading decisions, but highlight in the case of XBI, we just might have an Elliott Wave structure (not advice not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

If this structure’s correct, a lot can happen on the way to the end of ‘Wave 3’.

Note the XBI, topped-out right at the 38.2%, retrace in March (labeled, as ‘Wave 2’), before reversing lower.

Big In, Big Out

The chart above is a massive structure; years of action to form the top, reversal, counter trend wave, then reversal again, which is where we are now.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Biotech ‘Blip’

April 17, 2024 By in Biotech, LABD, Wyckoff, SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI 1 Comment

Was That It?

If this morning’s upside ‘attempt‘ was all there is for biotech XBI, then it’s just a blip on the RADAR screen.

If so, the sector could be entering a very dynamic phase (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s always the chance, price action is slowing to mount another try at the upside.

However, if the trading channel with its trendlines remains in-effect (shown below), lower prices are the higher probability.

Biotech XBI, Daily

At this point in the session (11:42 a.m., EST), XBI has made a new daily low but more importantly, has not made a new daily high.

The ‘blip’ higher at the open, may have been the best chance for a Wyckoff spring to develop; so far, it’s not happening.

The Fibonacci channel previously discussed (here) remains in-effect. This morning’s action appears to be confirming the right side trendline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Close … Biotech

April 16, 2024 By in Biotech, LABD, Wyckoff, SPBIO, Dr. Elder, $SPSIBI, XBI 1 Comment

Penetrates Support & Stops

The pre-market update had biotech XBI, at its Fibonacci projected move, ready to continue lower.

Indeed, there was a gap-lower open and price action attempted to move lower (below support), but then it stopped, closing the day with a narrow bar.

Anyone who’s a student of Wyckoff, would immediately recognize that description; we’re in spring position.

So, is XBI going to launch higher?

Well, anything can happen.

However, maybe a better description of potential, is that XBI, is in position to attempt to move higher.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Note: Elder’s Force Index for the past two trading days has lost downside energy (middle indicator panel).

This gives some probability of an attempted upside move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279