Biotech & Fibonacci Time

8:39 a.m., EST

SPBIO, pivots at Fibonacci Day 89

LABD inverse fund (3X inverse SPBIO), marked with time pivots and potential channel.

The plus or minus one-day on the Fibonacci counts, is well within acceptable limits.

There’s been so much focus on biotech because of the opportunity.

Trading congestion equals directional potential.

A good way to show that (downside) potential, is with the P&F chart of biotech IBB, below:

The initial projection targets the 120-area which is below the support levels at, 143 – 145. If penetrated, those support levels would likely become resistance to any upward retrace.

We’re about an hour to go before the regular open. LABD is trading flat to slightly higher.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Channel … Down

10:47 a.m., EST

Contact points confirm channel

Gold (GLD) heading lower

The two hits on the right side channel line provide confirmation of the trend.

An expanded version of the daily is below:

So far, we’ve had the blockage of the Suez Canal. Auto parts being sent to the bottom of the ocean off Japan. ‘Mysterious’ grain silo fires destroying harvested crops.

But wait, there’s more. This just in:

A fire has destroyed the largest grease plant in the U.S.

If transportation is shut down as a result of cyber attack, fuel pipelines off-line, no grease to lubricate the wheels or any number of other (planned … and don’t think there’re not) events, the last thing that’s going to help get anyone through, is a ‘stack’ of inedible metal.

It’s no secret this site’s been using the Biblical precedent of Genesis 41.

That is: Grain and Corn come first … then gold and silver.

The ‘stacking’ public has got this message reversed. Of course, this is not advice or a recommendation.

However, for those that can see, it’s so obvious the goal is ‘controlled demolition’ of the supply chain. All of it.

We’ll put everything back to ‘normal’ if you just get injected.

Meanwhile, biotech IBB, and SPBIO, have both posted a new daily low.

IBB is poised to penetrate the resistance area identified in this update, and come back to test the wide bar.

If that happens, we have a Wyckoff up-thrust in play. More analysis of biotech to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Moderna “Throw-Over”

11:35 a.m., EST

Price action posts new weekly low

Now, back into the (wedge) range

In a situation that’s straight out of any typical trading text: ‘When a market goes into a throw-over and then enters back into the range, it’s a classical analysis sell signal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s where Moderna (MRNA) is now.

Moderna’s the ‘chief cook and bottle washer‘ for the world-wide kabuki theater. So, we’re using it as a proxy for the biotech sector as a whole.

Separately, biotech index IBB, is retracing but has not posted a new daily low.

Inverse SPBIO fund LABD, has formed an hourly reversal bar and looks to be forming a daily reversal bar. As of this update, it has yet to post a new daily high.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Moderna: Reversal Review

‘Reversal at hand’ said the prior update

Reversal still imminent?

MRNA has pushed above resistance on declining volume (shown above) . The next chart has MRNA in a terminating wedge pattern:

Price action this past week has just contacted the top portion of the wedge.

MRNA is the fifth-largest cap equity in the IBB index. Its market moves have a definite effect on that index.

IBB, shown below:

On Friday, the market eased back a little. Will it come back to test the resistance area next week?

There’s no doubt about the wide high volume bar. That day (last Monday) posted the highest daily volume in four years.

Wide high-volume areas are usually tested.

It just so happens, that wide area is below resistance.

To test the wide bar, price action would need to move below the resistance area. Doing so, would put a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ into play.

The next chart shows another resistance area not easily discernable:

Although somewhat hidden, there’s another resistance level that for now is putting a limit on the upward travel of IBB.

Summary:

MRNA’s at an extreme. The previous update linked to a site which shows insiders bailing out in the tens-of-millions of dollars.

The bond market, with its upside breakout is not confirming the ‘recovery’ narrative.

The dollar is reversing as well.

Gold and the miners have stalled; potentially reversing.

The narrative is shifting as the media (all controlled don’t forget) has decided on its sacrificial, e-mail lamb.

Don’t worry, nobody’s going to jail. It will just be another distraction to keep the mask wearing masses from getting prepared for the fall.

As a reminder, this is how they think; ‘Just doing the right thing’ Almost like ‘Just following orders’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Targets

12:34 p.m., EST

Upside Breakout Eroding

Potential Wyckoff Up-Thrust (reversal)

Measured Move Targets

Starting with the (unmarked) weekly chart of IBB below, we see the current upside breakout.

We’re going to invert the chart and label the ‘resistance’ as ‘support’.

Inverting charts is a technique discovered years ago in a long since forgotten trading text; possibly Dr. Elder’s

The ‘inverting exercise’ is to help eliminate chart bias.

For example: If you see bullish no matter which way you turn the chart … there’s a preconditioned bias that’s affecting decisions.

On to the inverted chart:

What we see above, is a typical Wyckoff spring set-up.

Price action has decisively penetrated support (resistance on the regular chart) and is now eroding.

The distance of the trading range is shown as the dashed line.

Look at the near perfect symmetry.

Putting the range bar at the top of the trading range gives a measured move … right into resistance (support) of the next range.

Price typically moves down, two or three times as fast, as it moves up.

That’s why the professional speculators (throughout trading history) prefer down markets. If there are profits, they show up a lot faster.

Fundamentals:

Enormous pressure continues to build against the sector. You have to wonder what’s it’s going to take for the big break.

Just out last night, was this report from ZeroHedge. The CDC is having an emergency meeting to discuss ‘heart inflammation’ problems with the injections.

Let’s start there with a ‘safe’ topic and not discuss things like ‘dead within 15-minutes’ of injection.

Or maybe this one: A bloke gets himself injected and nearly kills two people with his truck a few minutes later.

The date on the video is June 11th. People are still getting this thing even with so much adverse reaction (death) information available?

The two narrating have a good point. What happens when a pilot is on final approach in bad weather, when he suddenly goes into an ‘event’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Update

3:29 p.m., EST

A close up look at 3X inverse, biotech LABD

Being inverse leveraged 3 to 1, this vehicle is amplified; sector changes in character can be picked up earlier.

What’s clear is the net distance traveled by downward thrusts is narrowing … down to nothing.

It could be a pause before heading lower or it could be that downward action is exhausted.

As we head into the close, price action can be seen slightly retracing upward.

We won’t know if that’s all for the downside until LABD posts another (new) daily high.

Analysis Tip:

LABD made a new daily low during this session.

The interesting part; it had to post a new daily high (above yesterday’s high) to get to that low.

That’s the only way it could get enough fuel (i.e. create price instability) to push just 0.08-points lower … potentially signaling final exhaustion.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dollar Divergence: Update

2:37 p.m., EST

Dollar penetrated support and is reversing

Potential for sustained, persistent rally

Wide trading range

Looking at the weekly close chart, we can see the wide range.

In addition, there’s a significant bullish divergence that (technically) gives the dollar, UUP, enough energy to test the top of that range; a potential that’s completely opposite the current narrative.

A this juncture, silver, gold and the miners are still correlated.

Yesterday, a potential top and reversal in miners GDX, was identified. Today, it appears to be hovering and looking unsure of its direction.

GDX has not posted a new daily high or low as of this update.

A sustained dollar rally (along with the bond market?) would be unexpected given what seems to be apoplectic hyperinflation ranting.

Separately, in biotech, the market (IBB) has stalled to the upside in a higher than expected test. Inverse fund LABD, made a new daily low and it too, has stalled.

Downward thrust energy on LABD is dissipating.

Technical update for biotech, planned for tomorrow … market permitting.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Possible Blow-Off Top

11:41 a.m., EST

Biotech IBB: Straight down in early session

Support at 153 – 154

If IBB’s going to test by moving up to underside of resistance, that support (153 – 154) would be a good place to start.

If we just had a massive short squeeze, support may not hold and IBB just continues on down.

The other biotech index, SPBIO, is performing in a similar fashion. Inverse fund LABD is up sharply as of this post.

Several updates on biotech, IBB and SPBIO have mentioned ‘collapse’.

A future update will provide some perspective on the potential downside for the sector

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Break-out or Blow-off?

2:41 p.m., EST

Massive volume in Biotech, IBB.

Price action penetrates resistance.

Heading higher or set-up for collapse?

It’s about 80-minuts before the close and already, IBB’s printed more single day volume than in the past four years.

There must have been a huge number of stops at the resistance area for price action to launch so decisively.

Now, as we get near the close we’ll see if it was just short covering, or if there’s really some kind of demand to hold and move prices higher.

The 4-Hour chart (below) shows a potential reversal as we head into the closing hour.

It’s the trader’s discretion on how to interpret and position (if warranted) in this environment. This site does not make recommendations.

However, based on the technical and fundamental data provided over the past year, we’re expecting at some point, a complete collapse of the sector; bottoming-out sometime in mid to late October, this year; not advice, not a recommendation.

If IBB continues to push decisively upward from here, meaning, tomorrow’s session is follow-through action, it will most likely (but not fore sure) invalidate the ‘collapse’ scenario.

We’re at the danger point

One of many other factors helping the bearish assessment is the release of this report:

Sell signal hits all-time high

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Just Doin’ My Job

1:31 p.m., EST

If there’s going to be a big move, it’s the market’s job to make sure you’re not in it.

We’ve already had the push below, and reversal from, established support on inverse biotech LABD, May 28th.

At this point, we’re in a test that serves two purposes:

Frustrate the impatient and run the stops on anyone that’s incorrectly positioned.

The circled area on LABD, in the daily chart is shown on the hourly below:

Anyone that set their stop at the low of Wednesday, June 2nd (in what looked like a good location) has been stopped out.

On top of that, note how once that location was penetrated, price action ‘stopped dead’ (pun intended).

That’s the key.

Once the stops are cleared, there’s no more energy left to move lower.

As of this post, LABD’s already reversing from this area; supporting the hypothesis.

Positioning:

Short position in biotech SPBIO, via LABD, is being maintained; not advice, not a recommendation.

Summary:

The more this market gyrates and attempts to throw off participants, the more it looks like something big is in the works.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.