‘Heart Failure’ … The New Normal

… What It Could Mean For Biotech

So, now it starts.

This just out from ZeroHedge, linked here, shows the ‘elephant’ has begun to go mainstream.

Another chess-move.

At least one previous post (No.1, linked here), has shown the phenomenon is not a one-off event.

Now, according to the link above, there’s an estimated 300,000 affected … and we’re just getting started.

Insiders Sell … Retail Buys

Do those at the highest levels know their customer base is about to evaporate on a world-wide basis?

While they may not know every detail, they at least know something’s up. Steven Van Metre discusses the insider selling in his latest update, linked here.

Front End Phenomenon

We’re still at the beginning stages of an event that in the opinion of this author, is going to last the lifetime of those reading this post.

‘Hyperbolic statement’ one might say.

To that, I would counter with this; when it was posted, the ‘elephant’ was hyperbolic as well.

Now? Not so much.

Keeping that long range thinking in mind also keeps one from choosing the ‘insane’ human behaviors discussed by Dan (I Allegedly) in his latest post.

So, let’s take a look at what type of insanity we have going on in the markets today.

Of course, that points us to our chief cook and bottle washer, biotech (IBB).

Biotech, IBB

When we last left our hero, savior, and protector of all that is natural immunity, the biotech discussion was on Moderna (MRNA).

The thrust higher, detailed in this post was thought to be too fast for a sustained reversal. Well, it was right and wrong at the same time.

Moderna wound up reversing … sort of.

At the same time, the biotech sector headed lower to support and is now moving higher.

The weekly IBB, chart has the support (lower blue line) and potential up-thrust location (also 50%, retrace) identified.

The zoom shows the narrow gap between the weekly bars and 50% retrace.

If price action makes it past the resistance bars and into the gap, IBB would then be in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


Panic In The Streets …

Remain Calm. All, Is Well.

All, Is Well !!!

It certainly feels like Animal House, doesn’t it?

A bunch of idiots running around, glued to the mainstream narrative.

However, let’s not digress but rather get to the chief cook and bottle washer at hand.

Moderna (MRNA) and Biotech (IBB).

Biotech: MRNA, IBB

Moderna’s move above resistance (‘Target’ level in this update) seems too fast for up-thrust and reversal.

It could reverse from here.

However, the more likely scenario is the mainstream milks this whole thing all the way to Christmas and beyond.

That brings us to the sector itself, IBB:

We’ll go straight to the marked-up (daily) chart.

It’s starting to look familiar isn’t it?

Spring-to-Up-Thrust … Spring-to-Up-Thrust

But wait … there’s more!

A Fibonacci 21-Days from the most recent IBB, low on November 23rd, puts the date at December 22; The Winter Solstice.

How convenient.

Of course, anything can happen between now and then. At least we have a potential target and scenario.

As with the gold miner’s (GDX) short that’s still on-going (not advice, not a recommendation), we get to see how it all plays out.

Will Biotech, IBB, be in up-thrust (reversal) position, on or around December 22nd?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

… Cue The ‘Hype’

Right On Schedule … A New ‘Variant’

Seems like just yesterday, we were saying:

“There’s all kinds of nastiness in the guise of ‘new strains’ out there; likely to raise their heads before Christmas and probably after as well.”

Wait, … that really was, yesterday.

So, now we have the ‘Nu variant’.

Get it? A, new variant. 🙂

The ‘Epsilon’ variant (from the idiot in Brave New World) is probably being saved for last … because if anyone’s still believing the hype by that time, it won’t matter … they’ll be fully ‘boosted’.

That doesn’t mean the pros can’t make money off the herd … while there still is a herd.

Which brings us to today’s underside test action of MRNA.

Moderna (MRNA):

Well, that retrace was quick.

First, let’s show yesterday’s weekly chart.

And now, today’s

It’s true that price action is testing the underside.

However, if we go to the daily chart (below), we can see if price action can make it just a bit higher … to the 360 – 380 area, then we have an up-thrust (potential reversal) condition.

The chart looks similar to our gold (GLD) up-thrust target, linked here for reference.

Recall, for that set-up, it took two months for GLD, to penetrate resistance … and then go into a vicious reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, At The Danger Point

In More Ways Than One

For now, we’ll discuss only the technical aspects.

We’ll leave the rest of the truth for mainstream news.

Discussed previously, the sector (SPBIO) was left with our assessment that it may reverse higher into a retrace; combined with an up-thrust/reversal.

That was then.

Biotech, SPBIO, Now:

Daily un-marked chart of SPBIO:

Below, a marked-up chart showing penetration and move off support (Spring Condition).

Included, is the 38% retrace level … location for potential test and reversal:

As with the on-going reversal in gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ, we’ll have to see how this plays out.

Unfortunately, as we head into what used to be the regular flu season, those who received ‘protection’, are going to find out they’re not protected at all.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Peak Oil ?

Will Demand Collapse Faster Than Supply Contracts ?

Is There A Biotech Connection ?

The Next Chess Move

Everyone’s good at telling you what the problem is; it’s a financial collapse !!!

No, Duh!

The hard part is, how to position for the unknown at least for those of us in the serfdom.

The so-called elites, the oligarchs know (or think they know) exactly what’s happening.

They move their chess players and we move ours. The goal is to position for (potential) profit with the caveat we all make it out on the other side.

Personal Anecdote (skip to XOP Analysis if not interested):

I have a close family member that’s been a school teacher for about twenty years. He/She is well known in the local town and has a significant number of connections.

Because the children being taught are typically small, ranging from kindergarten to fourth grade, those kids tend to reveal all that’s happening at home.

Their revelations include financial status (or lack of), political leanings as well as abuse that’s happening physically and sexually. It’s the real deal.

As an aside, any potential crimes are fully documented and reported.

The point here is, this contact has revealed that children, family members and extended family members are severely ill or dropping dead after receiving an ‘injection’.

However, the surviving family members are just too stupid (or afraid) to put it together; the injections are causing the deaths.

It’s some kind of mental block and/or mass hypnosis.

It’s wrenching and heartbreaking.

However, at the same time and this is where it gets harsh, for those of us in the faith, we know Biblical scripture tells us the Lord delights in hiding the truth.

One has to diligently seek out truth. It takes work and a prayerful form of neural plasticity; the ability to be mentally flexible.

Truth is not for the lazy, the incompetent, the coward.

Why should immutable truth come to a coward or idiot that does not diligently seek it?

New ‘Variant’:

The rapidly increasing deaths may be passed off by the mainstream media as some kind of new ‘variant’.

That ‘variant’ brings us to the market at hand; oil and oil exploration XOP and possible biotech connection.

XOP Analysis:

As with biotech SPBIO, and its leveraged inverse fund LABD, so too we have Oil & Gas Exploration XOP, and leveraged inverse fund DUG.

The long term un-marked, weekly chart of XOP:

Next, we have price action contacting a multi-year trendline:

Moving closer on the weekly, we have a terminating wedge:

Terminating wedge(s) typically result in price action moving opposite of wedge formation.

In the case above, that would be a reversal to the downside.

This past week’s bar was a reversal. It’s a potential signal the formation is complete and XOP is ready for the downside.

Of course, if XOP is about to head lower, inverse DUG is about to head higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Daily chart of DUG.

The Biotech (SPBIO) Connection:

The weekly chart of SPBIO, shows momentum on downward thrusts has slowed. The black dashed arrow’s trajectory is becoming more shallow:

If biotech is going to retrace, the solid blue line is a Fibonacci 38%, as well as potential location for an up-thrust (downside reversal).

A new variant (which is likely injection injury) may be used by the media to drive biotech higher to the retrace level.

We’ll have to wait and see if there’s a reduction of the population as we head into the end of the year. It’s a known fact, the injection destroys the immune system … so far, permanently.

That would be a factor in the up-coming flu season.

Remember that?

We used to have a regular flu season … but that all disappeared (re-branded, actually) with our current situation.

Summary:

Nearly all recessions have started with rising oil prices.

However, we’re not in a recession but an all out collapse. The economy is contracting at the fastest rate in U.S. history.

Our current position is demand will collapse faster than supply restriction (not advice, not a recommendation).

Or, we could still have rising oil prices but it won’t be enough to offset the cost of drilling and production; lack of demand may be overwhelming.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech: Last Squeeze ?

Whack The Bears One-More-Time

The daily chart above, shows our current location.

Inverting the chart and expanding the price action gives us the following:

Was today an attempt to break the up-trend (down-trend, non-inverted)?

Wyckoff called this type of sharp adverse move ‘threatening action’.

You won’t know if the market’s going to carry out the threat until the next session or subsequent sessions.

Positioning:

My firm’s (core) short position remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, the main account holding of LABD, was reduced by approximately 2.9%, during this session to adjust for margin requirements.

It’s important to note, the after hours session is already trading about 1% higher (for inverse LABD); a typical occurrence when the day’s move was a shakeout.

We’ll see if that action carries over to the regular session tomorrow.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Repeating Set-Up

If Set-Ups Repeat, Why Bother With The News?

Because, it’s the news that’s pushing around those who are easily manipulated, causing set-up(s) to materialize.

Decades ago, Wyckoff said that a speculator, will never be successful in the markets until they can completely ignore the news.

Sure, it’s important to monitor the news … but not for the purpose of speculating or investing.

Keep track of it to identify what they’re trying to accomplish. What’s the desired outcome for their press releases? Who are they trying to influence and maybe ask why?

Wyckoff went on to say (paraphrasing).

‘Put the other traders and speculators to work for you. Stand aside and let them spend their own money to drive prices into a high probability set-up.’

With that in mind, last week’s ‘Shakedown’ update on biotech SPBIO, and inverse fund LABD, said this:

“Because LABD, price action has hit the 21.40 area three times and rebounded, … it could, … could head lower for a penetration and spring set-up.”

Well, today was the penetration and spring set-up 🙂

Inverse Biotech Fund LABD

Hourly Chart

We’ve had the penetration of support … the rebound as well as what looks like a test.

Expectation for LABD, is to move higher from here to the top of the trading range.

Positioning:

My firm remains short SPBIO via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech’s showing weakness in the face of all-time highs in the S&P as well as the Dow.

What’s going to happen to ‘already in a bear market biotech’, when the overall markets reach their final top?

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Moderna (injections) Suspended

Biotech, Bricks In The Wall

Complete Implosion.

This site’s been steadfast for over a year; biotech above all others, has the highest chance of sustained, long-term collapse.

‘Collapse’ is an overused word these days. It may have lost some meaning.

How about the word ‘exposure‘?

Biotech has the highest chance of being exposed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sweden Suspends Moderna:

There it is out in the mainstream: Indefinite suspension.

About a week ago, the fist bullet item in this list discussed Moderna; that when price action reverses to the down-side (after being a market darling), the lawsuits start.

It’s not the lawsuits themselves, but the discovery process that’s part of the trial … if it goes to trial.

One can guess with some assurance, the last thing Moderna wants is for this baby (any potential lawsuit) to go to discovery and trial.

This could be one of those times, popcorn is justified; watching it all from the sidelines.

Southwest Backs Off:

Looks like greed is more powerful than jabs.

At least we can see the priorities and keep that for future reference.

Now, all-of-a-sudden, it makes no sense to destroy executive stock options with forced collapse of the organization.

Glad we have such genius executives in charge. 🙂

Meanwhile, Back At The Ranch:

While all that’s going on, we still have the financial press talking about earnings and sales and ‘pent up demand’ like any of that is important or actually real.

The only reality at this point in time, is the price.

Biotech SPBIO, Inverse Fund LABD Analysis:

We’re going to start with the un-marked chart of SPBIO:

Next, we’re going to invert that chart; giving a better perspective of what the inverse fund LABD, is tracking:

Repeating a previous observation; price action over the last two months (from late August to now), has calmed down.

Price range has narrowed and movement looks orderly.

Our take on this; bears have assumed control and are preparing (opening positions) for a directional move.

Compared to my firm and probably anyone reading, their capital is unlimited. They’re also patient.

Depending on the level of greed, they’re keeping price action from a major breakout until positioning is complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Wyckoff termed this phenomenon (a century ago) as the ‘composite operator’, or the ‘central mind’.

This is how markets work. There’s no getting away from it.

By making a transaction, any transaction, one has implicitly entered the ‘arena’ where the gladiators (the professionals) are ready to take all you own.

Moving in a little closer, we already have a trend.

Price action bounced off support on Friday (resistance on the inverted chart) but closed nearly unchanged.

Summary:

When you have satire like this and especially at time stamp 6:35, the pressure continues to build … almost from all sides.

My firm remains short SPBIO via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

That is, until the market itself says the bearish analysis is wrong or it’s time to exit.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Shakedown’ In Biotech

Don’t Think It’s A Racket ?

Well, here’s your proof.

It looked like biotech inverse fund LABD was going through a standard ‘test’ and then secondary ‘test’ (not as common).

Price action lulled participants to sleep; including this author.

Then , the shakedown.

The purpose is obvious; scare (nearly) everybody half-to-death and have them close out their positions.

It seemed to be working.

Early on, it looked like LABD was going to crater … with SPBIO launching higher accordingly.

Then, a funny thing happened.

LABD Block Trades:

As LABD price action was reaching its session lows, huge amounts of volume started to print on the tape.

Price action was not going down further and yet ‘block trades’ started to show up.

Strictly speaking, a block trade is anything over 10,000 shares.

However, I’m lumping in the 5,000 share trades and up, into the ‘block’.

There were plenty of those including one (buy) block for 13,000 @ 21.66; that’s equivalent to $281,580.

Stand Fast:

It’s days like today, understanding where one is in the market, is critical.

The initial work had been done long ago; that biotech (SPBIO) had printed three down quarters in a row.

The main long-term trend is down until price action says it’s not (not advice, not a recommendation).

LABD Analysis:

The un-marked daily of LABD is below:

Next, we move closer in and mark-up the 30-minute chart:

The large spike in volume is clear.

Volume in that bar’s 30-minutes was the highest since October 1st which was during a huge upward spike in LABD.

Positioning:

If LABD comes back down to the lows, it would indicate weakness and potential exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, the short biotech (SPBIO) via LABD, is being maintained (not advice, not a recommendation).

Last Thing:

Because LABD, price action has hit the 21.40 area three times and rebounded, … it could, … could head lower for a penetration and spring set-up.

Everybody and their dog (that’s left) has now put their stops at that level.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mount Aso Volcano Erupts

Or … ‘How’s That Stack Of Silver ?’

One result of a solar minimum (reduced sun-spot activity) is increased volcanic eruptions.

That increase has something to do with more solar radiation hitting and penetrating the earth.

Thus far, it’s not fully understood.

A contrary thought; it’s understood (able to be manipulated) but that insight’s not going to be revealed to us the proletariat.

One data point in favor of the ‘proletariat’ scenario is at this link. Right at the start in the upper left, you see clouds.

What’s strange about them? Think ‘wavelength‘.

Hiding in plain sight.

Honorable Mention:

This update would be remiss if it did not mention the latest on China’s reduced fertilizer exports.

Futures market for Urea (not making that up), moving briskly higher.

Mid Session:

Back At The Ranch, SPBIO (LABD)

Biotech SPBIO, is in the process of testing yesterday’s action.

The hourly chart of the inverse fund LABD, has price action in the process of competing a secondary test.

The take-away is unchanged.

Biotech (SPBIO) looks like it’s preparing for a directional move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action thus far (since the support penetration), is consistent with that potential.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279