You don’t hear about Pont & Figure anymore. P&F looks old, stodgy and boring; but that’s exactly how one should approach the markets to be consistently profitable.
Paraphrasing Dr. Elder from ‘Come Into My Trading Room‘, he says:
‘Trading is an old man’s game; you need to have a good, long memory.’
Well, the author of these updates is certainly old … well into his sixties and with a long memory; The crash of ’87, debt wipeout of ’98, tech bubble crash of 2000, the 2008 meltdown and now, today.
Those advanced years tempers one’s desire to constantly jump in and out on the swings. Not to say that might need to be the method at the time; but like Van Metre’s approach, the big money’s in the big move.
The jobs data released yesterday basically tells us ‘The economy ain’t coming back’ … possibly ever, in our lifetimes.
We’re at an order of magnitude greater than 1929; it was thirty years before that market returned to its prior levels.
Which brings us back to real estate and IYR. The P&F chart shows us, if there’s a breakout to the downside, initial projection of the move is to support around 69 – 73.
Keep in mind that if (or as) price action passes down through the low 80’s, it then builds up another area of congestion projecting even lower. The initial breakdown would only be the start of downside potential.
With that in mind, the firm is in position (not advice, not a recommendation) using DRV as the trade vehicle. Stop level is in the vicinity of yesterday’s DRV low @ 10.38.
Charts by StockCharts