Last week, Senior Miners GDX, broke out of a bear flag to the downside.
There could be a little more momentum lower before reaching support in the area of 33 – 34.
After that, expect a test to the underside of the flag. This is typical market behavior.
If that happens, we’ll have familiar gold bull hysteria ‘this is it!’ All the while, GDX and gold (GLD) grinding lower.
Recall gold (and related), is a very crowded trade. Eventually, there will be a sustained bull market … probably after all have grown weary hearing the rumor of it.
Anecdotally, remembering entries from a diary during the 1932 lows (the actual source has been lost), were to the effect:
‘Everybody knew that major stocks were a once-in-a- lifetime deal, but nobody had any money‘.
That lifetime deal, or deals may come. The objective is to survive, prosper and be ready when it gets here.
With that, there’re probably much better opportunities for a directional move to the downside.
Real estate, Oil & Gas Exploration sectors come to mind.
On the real estate side, it’s unfortunate, sad, but entirely possible a significant number of those to lose their homes through foreclosure, are somehow going to be housed in now-empty, or near empty commercial (mall) areas or office buildings.
If so, that relocation process will take a significant amount of time. The value of IYR’s components (SPG, EQR, etc.) may reach some type of bottom before it’s all straightened out.
We’re already past the beginning stages of a massive life-long depression.
Getting focused on it, is difficult but best if one is to come out the other side intact; or better yet, well positioned to re-build.
Next scheduled analysis: Real Estate, IYR
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