Category Archives: GLD

GDX Upward Test Possible

January 18, 2021 By in GDX, GLD, GOLD, IYR

Last week, Senior Miners GDX, broke out of a bear flag to the downside.

There could be a little more momentum lower before reaching support in the area of 33 – 34.

After that, expect a test to the underside of the flag. This is typical market behavior.

If that happens, we’ll have familiar gold bull hysteria ‘this is it!’ All the while, GDX and gold (GLD) grinding lower.

Recall gold (and related), is a very crowded trade. Eventually, there will be a sustained bull market … probably after all have grown weary hearing the rumor of it.

Anecdotally, remembering entries from a diary during the 1932 lows (the actual source has been lost), were to the effect:

‘Everybody knew that major stocks were a once-in-a- lifetime deal, but nobody had any money‘.

That lifetime deal, or deals may come. The objective is to survive, prosper and be ready when it gets here.

With that, there’re probably much better opportunities for a directional move to the downside.

Real estate, Oil & Gas Exploration sectors come to mind.

On the real estate side, it’s unfortunate, sad, but entirely possible a significant number of those to lose their homes through foreclosure, are somehow going to be housed in now-empty, or near empty commercial (mall) areas or office buildings.

If so, that relocation process will take a significant amount of time. The value of IYR’s components (SPG, EQR, etc.) may reach some type of bottom before it’s all straightened out.

We’re already past the beginning stages of a massive life-long depression.

Getting focused on it, is difficult but best if one is to come out the other side intact; or better yet, well positioned to re-build.

Next scheduled analysis: Real Estate, IYR

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Down. Why?

January 9, 2021 By in Bonds, Dollar, GLD, GOLD, TLT, UUP

We have the usual suspects rolled out; providing expert analysis on why gold went down.

The answer is quite simple. It tested a trend break, then reversed.

If we look at the (close) chart of GLD, it broke an uptrend during the week of November 20th, last year; went lower and then back to test.

That test was rejected dramatically with Gold (GLD), heading significantly lower; getting whacked down over 5%, in just two days.

This is not bull market behavior.

Steven Van Metre’s assessment (at this juncture) that we’re in a deflation event is being shown correct. The lagging factor in the scenario is the overall market … still near all-time highs.

It’s true bonds broke lower (rates up) this week but that’s another event answered by technicals; the wedge formation, discussed here.

Both bonds and the dollar have set the stage for a swift reversal.

Just how that’ll affect an extended, obscenely overvalued, stretched, call options wild market with everybody all-in, is not known.

Getting back to Van Metre; he’s reported, during this past week, small traders/speculators added to short (bond) futures positions.

If there’s a signal bonds are stretched, ready to reverse, it’s the little-guy just now getting in (going short) …. right at the bottom; as usual.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GLD) Updated Forecast

December 19, 2020 By in DUST, GLD, Negative Six

After the last post on GLD, price action pushed lower for one day before starting its anticipated move upward.

That lower push has altered the end point for counter trend action.

Adjusting forecasts and possible termination points is never-ending. 

Each bit of price action gives a new data point; confirming, negating, altering the perceived scenario.

A 38.2% retrace of GLD, on a closing basis from the November 30th low, gets to around the 177.00 area

This area also corresponds with a one-to-61.8%, “a-b-c” move from that November low.

Time wise, if GLD continues higher, we’re still on track for around December 29th, having already passed the December 16th, forecasted turn.

Note:  The December 16th date was off at this point, by one day.  GLD may have reached its counter trend high on the 17th.

If there’s a trade set-up (to go short) during the last week of the year, the objective is to initiate a position in the Senior Mining Index (GDX) via inverse fund DUST; not advice, not a recommendation.

Because of the current ambiguity, no positions are planned … yet.

At this point, we’re using the deflationary model, or macro as outlined by Steven Van Metre.  Price action thus far, is confirming that thesis.

Also worthy of investigation (more later) is how banks will get out of their massive long-bond positions.  A potential scenario of Negative 6%, is discussed by J. Bravo and Jeff Booth.

We’ll see if further investigation of ‘Negative Six’ as we’ll call it, includes IRA confiscation. 

Years ago, Prechter wrote just how simple that would be.

Summarizing his words:

We’d have a complete market melt-down.  IRA withdrawal penalties made prohibitive; for your ‘safety’ only treasuries can be in the portfolio. Voila! We’re done!

What needs to be kept in the forefront of everyone’s mind accessing these updates is the overall objective remains the complete destruction of the middle class.

Even in the Bravo post liked above, at Time Stamp 19:50, he presents that destruction as the Neo Feudalism already discussed here, two-weeks ago.

Price action is the key.  If GLD continues higher and past the 50% retrace, it indicates something else is afoot. 

If that happens, the bearish look then turns bullish.

A downward reversal from this point would suggest the December 16th date was off by one day and the corrective move higher is complete.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Oil & Gas: Power Down

December 16, 2020 By in DUG, DUST, GDX, GLD, XOP 1 Comment

Thrust energy in Oil & Gas sector XOP, continues to erode.

The weekly chart of XOP, has the longer term view … including the confluence of trend-lines; another factor.

Now on the daily, it too is losing power.  Force Index (bottom of chart) has successive lower highs and on Monday, a lower low as well. 

Downward pressure is increasing.

The EIA report is released at 10:30 a.m. EST. We’ll see if there’s another inventory build.

The firm is currently short this market via DUG (not advice not a recommendation). Hard stop: DUG, 24.72

There’s some level of protection (against volatility) with DUG reaching an apparent low last week and XOP making its high.

Moving on to Gold:  GLD, GDX, DUST

Pre-market shows gold flat and the miners (GDX) trading slightly higher; still on track to the target in this update.

If and when targets are reached, we’ll assess whether or not a low risk (short) position is available via DUST.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GLD) Forecast to: 177.50

December 12, 2020 By in GLD 2 Comments

While gold (GLD) remains in the channel presented here, the corrective move does not appear complete.

We’re using a daily (close) chart of GLD to show the current “a-b-c” correction unfolding.

The corrective wave labeling in lower case letters, takes its cue from Elliott Wave analysis.

The solid line marks an axis line already defined by price action. 

That line (~177.50) just so happens to be a 38.2% retrace of the entire GLD move (from the August 6th high) as well as 61.8% of the distance covered by wave “a” (when measured from wave b).

The wave “c” of a corrective move tends to mimic a Fibonacci length of the initial wave “a”   

Typical wave c lengths (of a) are 38.2%, 61.8% and 100%, or equal length.

Empirical observation has shown “c” wave distance of 50%, usually moves on higher to at least 61.8%.

From a timing standpoint; Fibonacci 13, days from the November 30th low, is December 16th; Fibonacci 21 days is December 29th.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GLD) Pivot Point Lower?

December 10, 2020 By in GLD, GOLD 1 Comment

For the hyperinflation crowd, yesterday’s weak action in gold must have been a surprise.

That action may signal a change in character.  The GLD chart shows the long supposed bull flag that’s been going on now for nearly five-months. 

If the dollar’s in free-fall destruction, then you would expect precious metals to be on a tear.

Not happening.

Going way back to a real bull market like the launch of the S&P in 1995; we can see strong bull markets are unexpected, violent, and do not allow anyone to get aboard comfortably.

That market lift-off lasted a full eighteen months before a meaningful pull-back.

Gold on the other hand appears punch-drunk.

The chart shows two trading channels.  The one we know and the one that may be happening now.

In today’s action, gold could attempt to close the gap. 

How price action behaves as it (or if it) moves upward will give clues to whether or not it’s now counter-trend to test (before reversing), or impulsive, gathering steam for a breakout higher.

The dollar is at trading range lows.  Bonds appear to be completing their test of the Wyckoff spring set-up discussed here.

There are still massive short positions on both.  Probabilities favor counter-trend action in gold with the real downward push yet to come.

Stay Tuned.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dow Forecast: 31,300

December 6, 2020 By in DIA, Dow 30, DUST, GDX, GLD, Neo Feudalism 1 Comment

The Dow can either reverse right here or breakout higher from its wedge.

Since the trend is already up, a breakout to the upside is more likely.  Such a move brings in a forecast to around 31,300.

The daily chart below has the last part of the wedge expanded and posted at the bottom of the chart.

Important to note is the location of the Gold (GLD) bull trap. 

Recall, the firm went heavily short (via JDST) on that Friday and had to wait over the weekend to find out if the analysis was correct.

This excerpt (emphasis added) is from the November 7th, update.  It was a Saturday; we’re already short and waiting.

“No doubt, there are a lot of well respected traders, analysts, YouTuber’s that are on the bullish side of the market.  Here are just some examples, here, here, and here.

So, at this juncture, this firm is taking the opposite side of the trade with its re-established position in JDST.”

The following Monday in the early morning hours, gold prices collapsed.  The bulls were trapped.

As the market opened with gold down hard, the Dow and S&P both spiked up in what’s now a terminal wedge.

‘Terminal’, because this type of price action typically comes at the end of a sustained move … up or down.

At this juncture, the firm is positioned short gold (via DUST) with a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stops (two trading accounts short) are not mental, out of the market but are actual open GTC stop orders. 

That way if there’s an internet upset or power grid problem, the in-the-market stops will provide some amount of protection.

All of the above may be an excellent analysis of current conditions. 

However, behind the scenes, the macro or the real agenda, is deadly serious.

The ‘plan’ all along is to destroy (and subjugate) the middle class.  That’s been in the works for decades. Neo Feudalism.

ShadowStats reports here, real unemployment spiked to 35% early in the year and has come down to just over 25% now.

That level is still above 1930s, depression-era numbers and we’re just at the first wave of middle class destruction.

Throw in more economic turmoil and a stock market crash.  Then we have ‘fait accompli’.  Only a tiny remnant could be left unscathed.  

Note the picture at the top:  The haves and have-nots.

From The Money GPS: ‘The chasm in-between the haves and the have-nots, grows every single day’

Self employment is the key.  It’s not a guarantee but it does offer flexibility and most importantly it may offer some extra time.

The above statements may seem harsh (possibly outlandish) to those not yet awake.

To help in that area, two links are provided here and here.  See for yourself whether or not we’re at a critical juncture.

Based on yesterday’s analysis, the expectation is for gold and the miners (GDX) to continue lower.

If they do and the markets (Dow, S&P) continue higher, it’s just one more indication the time for reversal is near.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold: Resistance & Retrace

December 3, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, DUST, GDX, GLD

Instead of reversal in the overnight, gold went higher. 

Keeping with the potential down-trend theme, we’ll pull out to the next larger time-frame; the weekly.

The 23.6% retrace level, is approximately 172.60 – 172. 70, when measured on the weekly chart.  Pre-market action in GLD (as of 8:55 a.m. EST) is at 172.40 – 172.60 range. 

So, we’re there.

This is a good example of price action coming back to test wide, high-volume areas such as posted last week.  It’s what markets do.

From a trading standpoint, the DUST position could be stopped out if price action remains at this level to the open. 

Not a problem.  Every trading action results in creating another data point for a future entry.

Moving on to Biotech (IBB): 

Using LABD (3X Inverse IBB) as the high-volume proxy, it’s oscillating in a narrow range and essentially unchanged.

Separately, David Quintieri at the Money GPS, comments here, that he’s being chided for not giving financial advice and not indicating which stocks to buy.

In addition, Steven Van Metre, in this report states the Dollar and 30-Year Bonds are shorted to unbelievable, historic extremes.

He also states that ‘when the market finally reverses, it’s going to be violent.’

The wipe-out, when it comes will likely be on several fronts. 

Food supply

Power gird

Cyber attack

“Speck”

Markets

Riots

After those events transpire, figuring out which stock to buy won’t be anywhere on the list.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold: Reversal Now?

December 2, 2020 By in BIS, DUST, GDX, GLD, IBB

If the trend is in-effect as shown, GLD could reverse tomorrow or in the overnight session.

The senior miners (GDX) stalled during today’s session.  Price action is still at the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace level.

To help clarify the firm’s positions, the following detail is provided as a courtesy only.

Several accounts are being managed.  Currently there are two open positions in separate accounts (not advice, not a recommendation):

Managed Accounts

Detail              Position         Stop

Short GDX     DUST             20.44

Short IBB       BIS                  25.46

Everyone has their own style.  Ours adheres to tenets laid down by three market masters from the early 1900s.  Detail on those criteria can be found here.

One of the reasons for choosing Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb, is that no evidence exists these individuals were part of any full scale corruption or being the lap-dog for the globalist elite.

That statement is the complete opposite of what we have today. At this stage, the corruption and lap-doggery should be obvious to all.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Bitcoin to Replace Gold?

November 24, 2020 By in Bitcoin, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD

That’s according to this episode from the Keiser Report.

Before we address that ‘report’, first this:

The video at this link (until it gets removed) is only 3:37 minutes long … but it explains everything.

It’s a well orchestrated script. 

How else would every single major corporation have exactly the same advertisements? 

Exactly the same; Literally, word-for-word.

So, bitcoin to replace gold? … it’s not even necessary to waste time with an answer. The deeper question is, what’s really going on with gold?

Gold is part of the script as well:

Gold is subdividing lower at this juncture. 

One target level from this update puts it around the $1,300-area.  By that time and if it gets there, the objective is met. 

There will be few-to-none of the original bulls left to buy in … their money gone; used to pay bills, buy food or worse … bitcoin … right in time for a major solar flare to knock out the entire electronic grid.

Listen to the “Report” and how the big names are bandied about.  They have the big bucks … you don’t.  So, listen to them.  They are the elite.

No, they are part of (and always have been) the coordinated effort to subjugate the masses.

It’s just now, there are enough ‘asleep’ with huge numbers of the population flu-shotted, vaccinated, fluoridated, medicated into complete stupidity; or just too afraid of the truth. 

It’s not necessary to hide the message. What are you going to do … “elect” someone to change it? Got that one covered.

If you have read this far … yours is a different story.  Welcome to reality.

One part of that reality is the markets are a wealth-transfer process which is now in overdrive. 

Looking at the daily newsfeeds, it’s obvious (or should be) to the old-timers, the lies and miss-direction have gone to a whole new level.

Wyckoff’s admonition about listening to the news is more true now than a century ago.

Ignoring those news-feeds and focusing on price action, the initial analysis of gold and the miners from late October, was spot on. 

The beginning trade in this series was a short position (via JDST) entered on Friday November 6th, when gold was at intermediate highs.

That short was held over a tense weekend.

Going against hundreds of thousands if not millions (on the other side of the trade) is difficult indeed.

Robert Prechter in his writings has detailed how hard it is to override the limbic (herd) system of the brain and operate separate from the crowd; nearly impossible.

By late Sunday – early Monday, gold futures (GCZ20) had collapsed.

The trade was closed out on November 9th, with a solid 13.22% gain.

Recognizing that JDST had more downward bias error than DUST, the next short position was initiated on the senior index (not advice, not a recommendation).

The GDX chart below (expandable version here) shows it’s following Fibonacci projections lower. 

It would be nice from a profit stand-point for GDX to reach all the way to the 16-area (blue oval).

Even Steven Van Metre has indicated several times in his reports, this area is his target as well.

After all, who is going to listen to some guy whose wife made his “Like” and “Subscribe” flash-cards from cardboard and sticks?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.