Biotech has similar price action to gold (GLD), back when it changed hands (link here).
The 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, shows the detail.
SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily
The message of LABD, is straightforward if you know where and how to look.
We’ll start first, with the un-marked chart.
The record volume spike is obvious and noted below.
Immediately after the record volume, LABD shows a change of character; it’s reversed to the upside.
The next chart points out that LABD, just finished three consecutive up closes with heavy volume.
There have been higher single day up volume(s) but not ever three in a row at this (elevated) level.
The inference: This reversal is or has potential to be significant.
Summary
Starting on July 12th, and all through the reversal, a short position (LABD-22-05), has been and continues to be accumulated (not advice, not a recommendation).
There have been minor adjustments (small exits) throughout, but the core position has been maintained and increased as the market allowed.
As long as LABD, price action remains agreeable, stays calm, potentially ratcheting higher, the plan is to continue to increase the position until volatility or hitting the stop prevents further action.
Current stop is now located @ LABD 26.21 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As if on cue to support the prior post highlighting silver’s ‘mysterious’ decline, we have this just out, on Newmont Mining.
Newmont’s in free-fall.
For long-time visitors to this site, today’s events should be no surprise.
These reports, here and here, posted back in April, identified reversals in gold miners GDXJ, and implicitly GDX, to the day.
We’ll include a quote from the first linked report below:
“It’s a fairly safe assessment, nobody expects a downside reversal … nobody”.
And yet, here we are.
As the administration and the financial press, becomes ever more confused and bipolar; even now, re-defining the long-held definition of ‘recession’, we have Wyckoff analysis time and again, cutting through the media trash to determine the highest probability for the market.
Newmont Mining (NEM) Weekly
The chart below has current conditions for Newmont.
Also shown is the location of the first post linked above, released before Newmont began its decline.
At this juncture, NEM has penetrated long established support; technically it’s in ‘spring position’.
The expectation is for some kind of (weak) rally attempt. We’ll see if it’s able to get back above support.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Media analysts and YouTubers alike, are scratching their collective coneheads.
They’re asking; why is silver down a whopping – 39%, from its print high of February 1st, this year?
If we factor in the high of SLV 48.35 (from April of 2011), silver’s been pummeled – 65%.
With the ‘rampant’ inflation and never-ending money printing, silver (along with gold) should, there’s that word ‘should’, be skyrocketing higher.
It’s an apparent mystery; steeped with smoke-filled back rooms and intrigue.
The ‘Inflation’ Narrative
Let’s help unravel silver’s decline by taking a look at some of the facts.
First up, is ‘inflation’.
The inflation narrative is false. There; glad we got that out of the way. 🙂
How do we know?
We know it’s false because the price action itself, tells us it’s false.
It’s obvious at this point, what we have is supply destruction and not inflation.
The Economic ‘Connection’
Next up, is the economy.
Silver along with copper are industrial metals. They follow the economy … more so with copper. Copper futures are down – 32.5%, from their March 7th, highs.
Coper’s industrial uses are linked here. Nearly half of copper production is for building and construction.
Since the largest real estate bubble in world history has just popped, copper demand is essentially going to collapse.
If at this early stage of Great Depression 2.0, the average person can’t pay the phone bill, where are they going to get any money to drive precious metals demand higher?
Moving on to ‘truth’, we have price action.
Silver SLV, Weekly Close
The chart below has SLV, penetrating one support level (upper blue line) and just now, at the next support.
Since gold (GLD) is in position for an upward test of its wedge breakdown (chart not shown), it’s reasonable to expect another bounce off support for silver.
Using the ‘rule of alternation’, we already had a brief move off the first support level before reversing.
The next contact at lower support, will likely bounce for longer or not at all.
If silver can’t go higher … look out below.
Silver SLV, To Single Digits?
The economic depression is just getting started and industrial metals demand is already collapsing.
Although a data point of one, the following is significant.
Supporting the ‘depression’ assessment is this link; specifically, time stamp 3:20, with a recent graph of housing listings in California … going vertical.
SLV, is in position to test higher; thus, confirming the wedge pattern (grey lines) shown below.
Added to that pattern is a measured move target should SLV, break down to lower levels after an upward test.
There it is: ‘Mystery’ solved.
Silver is heading lower because price action said it would.
Now, the fundamentals are kicking in to add a potential mass acceleration to the decline.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
In the weeks and months that followed, dollar updates proposed that because we’re looking at the longer weekly timeframe, ‘any rally is likely to go farther and last longer than anyone expects.’
So now, here we are.
ZeroHedge just acknowledged the obvious, with this report.
At the time of the original dollar analysis, it was (still is) popular to talk about the ‘imminent dollar collapse’.
That (dollar) post was released in the face of overwhelming opposition to any upside.
All of which, brings us to gold and silver.
Gold’s ‘Changing of Hands’
With the passing days and weeks, it looks like the insight of gold (GLD) changing hands (here and here) is proving correct.
It’s not a popular view and it’s sure not getting any ‘clicks’.
However, as we’ll see below, there’s potential for gold and silver to head to much lower levels if not just temporarily.
Gold (GLD), Weekly Bar
The wedge breakdown with measured move.
It’s clear, the 130 area, is an obvious support level.
The sticky part, previously discussed here, what if somehow, gold heads lower after the measured move?
We may have something that looks like this:
If that happens, think of the confusion that would result.
From an ‘oligarch’ standpoint, it makes perfect sense.
We’ll not elaborate on that in an open (unsecured) forum.
However, let’s just say, we should keep in mind, it’s the corn and grain first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).
Silver (SLV) projections are similar; potential targets at SLV 13 -14, then, if lower to single digits, around SLV 9.0 – 9.5
Summary
First it was, ‘The dollar’s going to collapse’, it’s ‘Imminent‘ (years ago).
Then, when that did not work out, it was the ‘Silver short-squeeze’ and we’re going to ‘Put it to the man!
Then, when that did not work out, it was ‘Gold’s going to $3,000/oz. in months, not years!’
Then, when that did not work out, it’s now ‘The Fed’s going to seize all your money.’
Ah ha! … We may have some truth but not in the way that’s obvious.
If the typical middle-class individual is maxed-out with debt, having overpaid for depreciating ‘assets’ such as cars and housing, there really isn’t much left in the banking accounts, right?
Retirement accounts … now, that’s different.
Covered many times (scroll to No. 3) on this site is just how easy it is (will be) to confiscate the IRA.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As far as is known, no other site has identified, gold (GLD) has “changed hands” with the next probable direction, as sideways or down.
That is, until now.
Sometimes, it literally takes years to find anything useful from mainstream financial media. However, you really can’t blame them; it’s not their job to reveal the truth.
By chance, every once in a while, someone makes a mistake and bits of truth, escape.
That may be where we are with the following Kitco NEWS interview, linked here.
It’s worth a half-hour to watch the entire exchange but for us, the real business starts at time stamp: 19:05.
The Overall Gold, Premise:
If the dollar moves sharply higher and the markets move lower (or crash), gold’s response may be a wash-out to $1,300/oz., or lower.
“Changing of Hands” as identified on this site, was mostly intuitive. We won’t know for sure if it was the (real) inflection point until gold resolves itself.
Now, we have another view from a separate party (above), that at least recognizes gold’s downside potential.
With that said, let’s look at gold (GLD), Quarterly
Gold (GLD), Quarterly Chart
There are only two trading days left in the quarter; it’s reasonable to think we’ll get something similar to the un-marked chart below.
The next chart shows the Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) along with an attempt to move higher (the test) that was rejected; prices continued lower.
The next chart is the one no gold bull wants to see; downside projection(s).
Using a standard Fibonacci tool, we have the above projections.
If there’s a major unwind of gold positions, price could decline to the GLD, 133-area, corresponding roughly to physical gold @ $1,300/oz.
Uncharted & Unprecedented
The caveat: We’re not in any time that’s happened before (other than maybe the collapse of the Roman Empire).
It’s uncharted territory.
We should expect market events to reach never before seen extremes. That would include the potential for a severe draw-down in gold.
The World, Then
If gold gets to the $1,300/oz level, it would easily be considered a buying opportunity.
What if gold keeps going lower, moving below $1,000/oz?
The second projection, targets approximately $950/oz.
What, then?
What if the $1,300 level, was bought by those with means, using both hands … including massive margin (if it’s still available).
What happens if there’s another leg down; then margin calls?
Can’t happen one might say.
Well, oil going negative for the first time in history couldn’t happen either … until it did.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As the ‘About‘ section says, this site provides one leader’s view on the market; what can best be termed as ‘Strategic Leadership’.
So, just what is that, exactly.
A good example is the current biotech analysis and action.
Biotech strategy, thus far.
No. 1:
Recognize biotech (SPBIO), as bear market leader.
No. 2:
Wait for opportunity to position short via LABD, on an upside reversal; A Wyckoff, up-thrust.
No. 3:
Monitor and increase the short position as the market allows. Continue until targets are met or stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).
As can be seen, here, here, here, and here, the trade LABD-22-03, is progressing well.
It should be noted, this trade could be over in minutes, or go on for months. The price action itself, will decide when it’s complete (not advice, not a recommendation).
Now, on to gold in general and Seabridge, specifically.
The Gold Reversal
We’ve had several updates that show gold (GLD) has changed hands; from strong to weak.
Quite obviously, this assessment is completely opposite the narrative and the crowd consensus.
However, price action itself, has told us there’s been a reversal.
Recent posts here, here, here, here and here, successively build on themselves showing at this juncture, the gold direction, is down.
Leading Edge Chaos
Evidence continues to build, we’re just on the leading edge of chaos; likely to last for years, if not decades.
Go to time stamp 1:12 at this link and observe one of many efforts already in place to take down the current system.
Going way back, 20-months, to the first post on SA, and taking the following from that report:
“If and when the markets (S&P, Dow, NASDAQ) reverse in earnest, there’s likely to be widespread panic. Just like last time [2007 – 2008] and probably worse.
As a side note: If and when we get there (panic selling), and if SA pushes below well-established support (6-area), the initial plan is to open a major long position … but with a significant caveat.
That caveat is: We’ll take possession of the actual physical shares (not advice, not a recommendation). The broker could put up a fuss and charge a fee. So be it.”
Now, that’s a strategy.
Back then, nearly two years ago, it was not so obvious why having the physical shares was important. I think the reasons for doing so now, are clear.
Let’s move on to the actual chart of SA and look at probabilities.
Seabridge Gold (SA), Quarterly Chart
One thing is obvious just looking at the un-marked chart:
The bull market for SA, ended years ago; October of 2007, to be exact.
The actual price of gold (GLD) went on higher for over three-more years. Yet, SA languished.
Now, gold (GLD) has potentially reversed and there’s possibility for significant downside.
How significant? Well, somewhere in the range of $1,300/oz, or even lower.
Which brings us to the same chart of SA but adding Fibonacci projections.
SA, Quarterly Chart, Fibonacci Projection(s)
Getting closer-in with the zoom, we see the market itself has already validated those projections; especially the 38.2, level.
The 50% projection is near 5.00, and the 61.8%, is all the way down to 0.49 – 0.51.
Seabridge down to 50-cents, is that possible?
The Great Depression, 2.0
Those attempting to equate current events with the Great Depression, are at least doing the good work of recognizing the similarities and possibilities.
In the case of Neil McCoy-Ward, (linked above), he recognizes this time, is a whole other animal.
So, the answer is yes … SA could go to 50-cents. If and when it does, nobody will want to buy.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Wyckoff and Fibonacci analysis allowed the reversal of gold miners GDXJ, to be identified to the week and then, to the day.
A quick review of this post, is the reversal on a weekly basis and this one is a follow-up, showing Fibonacci correlation on a daily basis.
If we want to go way-back, this report, shows the miners were not in a bull market and have not been for some time; for years, actually.
That does not mean there were no trades for upside or downside; there were.
However, from a strategy standpoint, gold miners are not bullish.
So, let’s look at the Junior Miners GDXJ, as it’s the weakest in the sector.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Chart
Un-marked
First Mark-up
The reversal is at Fibonacci 89-weeks, plus one day.
However, it’s the next chart that’s more disconcerting for the bulls.
Price action reversed right at a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace; indicating severe weakness (if it holds).
The two black lines above the 23.6%, are 38.2%, and 50%, respectively.
The next chart zooms into the reversal area.
This week has already posted a new weekly low, providing additional confirmation of the reversal.
As gold, silver and the associated miners reverse lower, we have news reports of precious metals purchases going off the charts.
Where was everybody in 2001, as gold was bottoming?
That’s, 2001 – to – 2022, a Fibonacci, 21-years.
Which brings us to the next point.
The YouTube “Herd”, is Forming
Several YouTube sites that have been monitored for years, have recently blown-up, passing 100,000 subscribers; more than a few are past 200,000 or higher.
Recently, they have started giving each other ‘shout-outs’, to indicate their approval of that particular site’s ‘content’.
Viewer, Beware
By definition, the ‘herd’, does not have the right answer.
Each one is now monitoring what the other one is doing; they are all, influencing themselves.
The only way to have a hope of getting unique insight is to remain aloof. Wyckoff described this exact phenomenon in his autobiography.
He had very wealthy clients that wanted to get closer (unlimited) access to him. To this overture, he refused.
He isolated himself and remained cloistered.
Summary
Thus far, the analysis of gold ‘changing hands‘ remains intact. Gold continues to be well off its highs; silver is not anywhere close.
Strategy, Tactics, and Focus.
The Junior Miner’s reversal can’t be disputed … there it is.
If precious metals and the miners are not responding to all the ‘money printing;’, then something else’s afoot that’s not being revealed to us in the proletariat.
That ‘something’, is probably starvation … which gets us back to Genesis 41; corn and grain come first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s a significant, if not major event, when one market participant (collectively) hands off the trading vehicle to another.
In a decline, that usually means the ‘average investor’, the least disciplined, least knowledgeable, gives up and hands off to the professionals; the ‘strong hands’.
In a blow-off top, the reverse is true.
The professionals lead the ignorant along with whatever narrative is necessary so that enough volume is created to successfully exit positions.
The changing of hands for gold and gold miners, was identified on this site, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here, starting over two-and-a-half months ago.
The analysis was consistent throughout; we are not in a long-term, sustainable, bull market. That stance applied most specifically to gold miners GDX, and GDXJ.
For that assessment to change, price action itself would have to change character; not the lagging momentum indicators, moving averages, price oscillators and so on that are themselves, defined by price action.
So, let’s take a look at what gold (GLD) is saying about itself.
Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart
First, the un-marked chart.
Next, we see a medium to long term trendline that’s been decisively broken and tested.
Getting closer-in, we can see the oscillation about the line, the break and subsequent test (with reversal).
What’s Next?
Well, that brings us to Harry Dent.
Love him or hate him. Here he is, offering up a perspective that’s not going to be popular.
How can gold (GLD) decline from here?
Let’s take a look.
If the wedge above is in-effect, if it’s the dominant factor at this point, then a break depending on location would take GLD down to about 130-ish.
If that happens, it will be a big event … down to approximately $1,300/oz.
However, it’s what may come next, that will be totally unexpected.
It’s interesting, the wedge in blue has a measured move target right to the bottom of the larger wedge in magenta.
To get below $900/oz, will be a very different place.
With that in mind, this site has presented time and again, we’re in an unprecedented world-event.
‘Normal’ is not coming back … ever.
Awake, or Not
Jerimiah Babe, in one of his latest videos hints there’s a strange vibe to what’s happening: Time stamp 5:20,
‘There’s something going on here …’
The Fed may actually be telling us the truth … just not in the way we expect.
You have to be awake to read between the lines.
Inflation may indeed be ‘transitory’ as they say because consumer demand is going to evaporate.
Evaporate not because the consumer can’t afford it, but because there are, or will be, no consumers.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 