Gold To Rally ~ $1,660

If that happens, expect the usual suspects to ‘Go Postal’ on the hyperinflation narrative.

Johnny Bravo put it best when he said (to the effect) months ago:

We’re going to get hyperinflation. The question is “When?”

Looking at it a different way and in ‘Oligarch speak’.

The time for hyperinflation, is when the proletariat have exhausted their supplies of precious metals … most likely using it to buy food.

An engineered famine is being constructed; in process, as we speak.

Judging from comments on the financial sites, the public still thinks food prices are rising because of inflation.

There are exceptions (thankfully) like the comment area on ZeroHedge articles. Those few but growing number, understand exactly what’s happening.

So, what’s all of this got to do with the price of gold?

It’s perfectly natural and maybe expected that gold, GLD, after breaking support will rally back to test the 166 (~ $1,660) area.

Just like the incessant narrative on “The Speck“, which is drilled into the collective consciousness day after day (except maybe in South Dakota and Texas) so too, is the hyperinflation Weimar Republic narrative.

A Black Swan (as explained by Nassim Taleb) is a major unexpected event.

The flip side, a Black Swan is also a major expected event, that does not happen. That second definition is not commonly discussed.

What if hyperinflation never happens? What if there’s some kind of ‘transition’ before it has a chance to take hold?

If GLD tests 166, and reverses, downside targets are now 133 and then even lower at 110.

If that happens, there could be a market crash to go along with it.

With margin debt levels the highest in history, most if not all participants will be wiped out long before gold at $1,100 (or lower).

Silver and gold at fire sale levels and the public will be on the other side of the fence, turning in their precious metals hoard in exchange for worthless fiat dollars … just to survive.

It’s an oligarch’s dream come true.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Finally, Inflation Shows Up

Its been nearly twelve years exactly since the market bottom of March 9th, 2009.

At that time gold tracking fund GLD, was trading around 90.

Today, it’s at 167, a gain of about 85%.

Gold futures for April ’21, closed this past Friday at 1,777.4

Either way, it’s a far cry from the $10,000/oz. that has been bandied about for what seems like forever.

Prices for energy and food are rising because of reasons not discussed in the financial media.

That media is certainly not going to educate the public.

In turn, that public has shown there’re certainly not going to educate themselves. If they were awake, news channel ratings (in the link) would be at zero.

Unfortunately, this time around, the game’s up.

The ongoing collapse will decimate those who refuse to wake up and will probably take some of those who are, with them.

Which brings us to the so called inflation, at hand.

What can be said? We can call it lies, misinformation, propaganda but none of those really get to the root.

Input prices are rising not from inflation, but from supply constriction and disruption.

For example, the corporate (big-Ag) food supply chain as reported on many times, is intentionally being destroyed. The result of course, prices go higher.

We’re also in a quiet sun-cycle period that only serves to help with (cold) weather extremes. The only discussion from the media concerning the weather is that’s it’s getting warmer, right? Opposite of reality.

So we’re taking that ‘opposite of reality’ as a contrary indicator.

Whatever inflation we’ve got after nearly twelve years, is probably at or near a peak … ready to head lower.

That includes the market as well. The likely outcome:

Market down, bonds up.

The daily close of long bond TLT, has it in a support zone. One attempt has already been made to position long via TMF (not advice, not a recommendation) as detailed in this report.

Once again this past Friday, another TMF entry.

Both bonds and the markets (i.e. S&P 500) are at opposite extremes. The risk of loss in bonds may have reached its nadir.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

SLV Up 10%, Can it Hold?

The short answer is, probably not.

Is anyone looking at the technical condition? No, it’s all about ‘putting it to the man’.

In all of Wyckoff’s writings, he never once proposed the idea of taking the large controlling entities for a ride.

He was totally immersed in figuring out what those entities were trying to accomplish; then getting on the right side of the trade.

For all we know, the whole hedge fund blow-up, kabuki theater could have just been a sacrificial lamb (an inside job) targeting silver for a massive short opportunity.

How’s that for strategic thinking.

Right now, in the pre-market, SLV is right at new recovery highs.

The real question should be, ‘how long can the hype last?’

Can it finish the week at new highs and post a bearish divergence on the weekly MACD?

Price action itself will decide. What we do have, is risk being removed on the short side.

Inverse fund ZSL is down a stiff -21%. If there is a short, that’s the one to watch (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s important to note, GLD is nowhere near a +10% move. It’s a non-confirmation on silver.

Separately, the overall markets are trading higher but appear to be under their prior session (daily) highs … indicating a short position in those markets is still viable.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

GDX Upward Test Possible

Last week, Senior Miners GDX, broke out of a bear flag to the downside.

There could be a little more momentum lower before reaching support in the area of 33 – 34.

After that, expect a test to the underside of the flag. This is typical market behavior.

If that happens, we’ll have familiar gold bull hysteria ‘this is it!’ All the while, GDX and gold (GLD) grinding lower.

Recall gold (and related), is a very crowded trade. Eventually, there will be a sustained bull market … probably after all have grown weary hearing the rumor of it.

Anecdotally, remembering entries from a diary during the 1932 lows (the actual source has been lost), were to the effect:

‘Everybody knew that major stocks were a once-in-a- lifetime deal, but nobody had any money‘.

That lifetime deal, or deals may come. The objective is to survive, prosper and be ready when it gets here.

With that, there’re probably much better opportunities for a directional move to the downside.

Real estate, Oil & Gas Exploration sectors come to mind.

On the real estate side, it’s unfortunate, sad, but entirely possible a significant number of those to lose their homes through foreclosure, are somehow going to be housed in now-empty, or near empty commercial (mall) areas or office buildings.

If so, that relocation process will take a significant amount of time. The value of IYR’s components (SPG, EQR, etc.) may reach some type of bottom before it’s all straightened out.

We’re already past the beginning stages of a massive life-long depression.

Getting focused on it, is difficult but best if one is to come out the other side intact; or better yet, well positioned to re-build.

Next scheduled analysis: Real Estate, IYR

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Down. Why?

We have the usual suspects rolled out; providing expert analysis on why gold went down.

The answer is quite simple. It tested a trend break, then reversed.

If we look at the (close) chart of GLD, it broke an uptrend during the week of November 20th, last year; went lower and then back to test.

That test was rejected dramatically with Gold (GLD), heading significantly lower; getting whacked down over 5%, in just two days.

This is not bull market behavior.

Steven Van Metre’s assessment (at this juncture) that we’re in a deflation event is being shown correct. The lagging factor in the scenario is the overall market … still near all-time highs.

It’s true bonds broke lower (rates up) this week but that’s another event answered by technicals; the wedge formation, discussed here.

Both bonds and the dollar have set the stage for a swift reversal.

Just how that’ll affect an extended, obscenely overvalued, stretched, call options wild market with everybody all-in, is not known.

Getting back to Van Metre; he’s reported, during this past week, small traders/speculators added to short (bond) futures positions.

If there’s a signal bonds are stretched, ready to reverse, it’s the little-guy just now getting in (going short) …. right at the bottom; as usual.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GLD) Updated Forecast

After the last post on GLD, price action pushed lower for one day before starting its anticipated move upward.

That lower push has altered the end point for counter trend action.

Adjusting forecasts and possible termination points is never-ending. 

Each bit of price action gives a new data point; confirming, negating, altering the perceived scenario.

A 38.2% retrace of GLD, on a closing basis from the November 30th low, gets to around the 177.00 area

This area also corresponds with a one-to-61.8%, “a-b-c” move from that November low.

Time wise, if GLD continues higher, we’re still on track for around December 29th, having already passed the December 16th, forecasted turn.

Note:  The December 16th date was off at this point, by one day.  GLD may have reached its counter trend high on the 17th.

If there’s a trade set-up (to go short) during the last week of the year, the objective is to initiate a position in the Senior Mining Index (GDX) via inverse fund DUST; not advice, not a recommendation.

Because of the current ambiguity, no positions are planned … yet.

At this point, we’re using the deflationary model, or macro as outlined by Steven Van Metre.  Price action thus far, is confirming that thesis.

Also worthy of investigation (more later) is how banks will get out of their massive long-bond positions.  A potential scenario of Negative 6%, is discussed by J. Bravo and Jeff Booth.

We’ll see if further investigation of ‘Negative Six’ as we’ll call it, includes IRA confiscation. 

Years ago, Prechter wrote just how simple that would be.

Summarizing his words:

We’d have a complete market melt-down.  IRA withdrawal penalties made prohibitive; for your ‘safety’ only treasuries can be in the portfolio. Voila! We’re done!

What needs to be kept in the forefront of everyone’s mind accessing these updates is the overall objective remains the complete destruction of the middle class.

Even in the Bravo post liked above, at Time Stamp 19:50, he presents that destruction as the Neo Feudalism already discussed here, two-weeks ago.

Price action is the key.  If GLD continues higher and past the 50% retrace, it indicates something else is afoot. 

If that happens, the bearish look then turns bullish.

A downward reversal from this point would suggest the December 16th date was off by one day and the corrective move higher is complete.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Oil & Gas: Power Down

Thrust energy in Oil & Gas sector XOP, continues to erode.

The weekly chart of XOP, has the longer term view … including the confluence of trend-lines; another factor.

Now on the daily, it too is losing power.  Force Index (bottom of chart) has successive lower highs and on Monday, a lower low as well. 

Downward pressure is increasing.

The EIA report is released at 10:30 a.m. EST. We’ll see if there’s another inventory build.

The firm is currently short this market via DUG (not advice not a recommendation). Hard stop: DUG, 24.72

There’s some level of protection (against volatility) with DUG reaching an apparent low last week and XOP making its high.

Moving on to Gold:  GLD, GDX, DUST

Pre-market shows gold flat and the miners (GDX) trading slightly higher; still on track to the target in this update.

If and when targets are reached, we’ll assess whether or not a low risk (short) position is available via DUST.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GLD) Forecast to: 177.50

While gold (GLD) remains in the channel presented here, the corrective move does not appear complete.

We’re using a daily (close) chart of GLD to show the current “a-b-c” correction unfolding.

The corrective wave labeling in lower case letters, takes its cue from Elliott Wave analysis.

The solid line marks an axis line already defined by price action. 

That line (~177.50) just so happens to be a 38.2% retrace of the entire GLD move (from the August 6th high) as well as 61.8% of the distance covered by wave “a” (when measured from wave b).

The wave “c” of a corrective move tends to mimic a Fibonacci length of the initial wave “a”   

Typical wave c lengths (of a) are 38.2%, 61.8% and 100%, or equal length.

Empirical observation has shown “c” wave distance of 50%, usually moves on higher to at least 61.8%.

From a timing standpoint; Fibonacci 13, days from the November 30th low, is December 16th; Fibonacci 21 days is December 29th.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GLD) Pivot Point Lower?

For the hyperinflation crowd, yesterday’s weak action in gold must have been a surprise.

That action may signal a change in character.  The GLD chart shows the long supposed bull flag that’s been going on now for nearly five-months. 

If the dollar’s in free-fall destruction, then you would expect precious metals to be on a tear.

Not happening.

Going way back to a real bull market like the launch of the S&P in 1995; we can see strong bull markets are unexpected, violent, and do not allow anyone to get aboard comfortably.

That market lift-off lasted a full eighteen months before a meaningful pull-back.

Gold on the other hand appears punch-drunk.

The chart shows two trading channels.  The one we know and the one that may be happening now.

In today’s action, gold could attempt to close the gap. 

How price action behaves as it (or if it) moves upward will give clues to whether or not it’s now counter-trend to test (before reversing), or impulsive, gathering steam for a breakout higher.

The dollar is at trading range lows.  Bonds appear to be completing their test of the Wyckoff spring set-up discussed here.

There are still massive short positions on both.  Probabilities favor counter-trend action in gold with the real downward push yet to come.

Stay Tuned.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dow Forecast: 31,300

The Dow can either reverse right here or breakout higher from its wedge.

Since the trend is already up, a breakout to the upside is more likely.  Such a move brings in a forecast to around 31,300.

The daily chart below has the last part of the wedge expanded and posted at the bottom of the chart.

Important to note is the location of the Gold (GLD) bull trap. 

Recall, the firm went heavily short (via JDST) on that Friday and had to wait over the weekend to find out if the analysis was correct.

This excerpt (emphasis added) is from the November 7th, update.  It was a Saturday; we’re already short and waiting.

“No doubt, there are a lot of well respected traders, analysts, YouTuber’s that are on the bullish side of the market.  Here are just some examples, herehere, and here.

So, at this juncture, this firm is taking the opposite side of the trade with its re-established position in JDST.”

The following Monday in the early morning hours, gold prices collapsed.  The bulls were trapped.

As the market opened with gold down hard, the Dow and S&P both spiked up in what’s now a terminal wedge.

‘Terminal’, because this type of price action typically comes at the end of a sustained move … up or down.

At this juncture, the firm is positioned short gold (via DUST) with a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stops (two trading accounts short) are not mental, out of the market but are actual open GTC stop orders. 

That way if there’s an internet upset or power grid problem, the in-the-market stops will provide some amount of protection.

All of the above may be an excellent analysis of current conditions. 

However, behind the scenes, the macro or the real agenda, is deadly serious.

The ‘plan’ all along is to destroy (and subjugate) the middle class.  That’s been in the works for decades. Neo Feudalism.

ShadowStats reports here, real unemployment spiked to 35% early in the year and has come down to just over 25% now.

That level is still above 1930s, depression-era numbers and we’re just at the first wave of middle class destruction.

Throw in more economic turmoil and a stock market crash.  Then we have ‘fait accompli’.  Only a tiny remnant could be left unscathed.  

Note the picture at the top:  The haves and have-nots.

From The Money GPS: ‘The chasm in-between the haves and the have-nots, grows every single day’

Self employment is the key.  It’s not a guarantee but it does offer flexibility and most importantly it may offer some extra time.

The above statements may seem harsh (possibly outlandish) to those not yet awake.

To help in that area, two links are provided here and here.  See for yourself whether or not we’re at a critical juncture.

Based on yesterday’s analysis, the expectation is for gold and the miners (GDX) to continue lower.

If they do and the markets (Dow, S&P) continue higher, it’s just one more indication the time for reversal is near.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.