Gold Gets Whacked !

Mid Session

… But, That’s Not The Real Story

First, this morning’s action in gold (GLD) tells us, it’s not a bull market.

The asylum escapees (gold bulls) from yesterday, might paint today’s action as a buying opportunity.

Well, it could be a buying opportunity for short term trades (not advice, not a recommendation) but that’s not what this site is about.

Bull markets do not let you get aboard comfortably.

Case in point:

For those old enough to remember, harken back to the bull market launch of 1995.

Remember that?

It seemed like every day was up into new highs with nary a retracement until a year and a half later.

No, there’s something else going on with gold.

It may indeed continue to move lower from here. However, there’s a price action feel that’s not right.

GLD:

Potential Coup D’état Set-Up ?

Those who own the gold market(s) know full well, there’s a bunch of rabid ‘collapse’ types who believe the metal’s their salvation ticket out of events to come.

Those in control, need to get as many as possible on the wrong side of the trade before there can be a sustained long-term (or fast and sharp) down move.

Such a move, if it goes low enough and fast enough, would likely take out the majority of the ‘stacking’ community.

Looking at the un-marked chart of gold (GLD), just where would that location be … where everyone, except the few, are positioned incorrectly?

As discussed previously, the area shown below would be a good location for an up-thrust (reversal) condition.

In addition, that location’s between the 38% and 50%, retrace level(s) from August 2020, to March 2021.

One can speculate on just what would cause or enable a last-gasp push higher above the GLD 171, level.

Well, for starters, how about a massive volcanic eruption that results in long-term destruction on both sides of the Atlantic.

As Dan (I Allegedly) says with his post just out, ‘the economy is in a perfect storm’.

Anything can happen.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Think, ‘Inside The Box’

Late Session

Or … Who’s In Charge Of The News?

Answer:

The same people who came up with the tag line appearing simultaneously throughout every major corporation:

“We’re all in this together.”

Remember that?

I have an engineering buddy that founded his own muscle car performance company (think “steeroids®”) and he told me the following:

“Once you get out of the corporate world, you won’t be able to think straight for about six months to a year.”

I didn’t quite understand what he meant … that is, until I left the corporate world.

It was just as he said. Six months before the fog began to lift.

Steered To and Fro:

Each corporate directive or news story is out there for a reason. Someone (much higher up) had to decide on its creation and release.

Once out of the box, you can see (if you’re awake) just how much and how deep was/is the control.

What does all that have to do with the markets?

Well, let’s take a look at the latest case of (hyperinflation induced dollar collapse) herd behavior; the gold market.

Gold To Rally?

The gold lunatics are out again … having escaped the asylum yet one more time.

Of course, this upward bounce was predicted well in advance:

Of note: GDX is in ‘spring’ position. An upward attempt is to be expected.

If GDX was to break out and start a sustained bull move, this would be the spot. We’re at the danger point.

Gold and GDX, have indeed put in some kind of a rally. However, let’s see what the gold market (GLD), is saying about itself:

Gold (GLD) Analysis:

As of this post, this is how it looks.

Marking up with a tend-line gets us the following:

On a longer term perspective and if the trendline is broken, we can go back to the original idea of an up-thrust set-up:

As is typical for this site, we’ll let the bulls duke it out with the bears. We’ll wait and see if we’re at a reversal point (trend-line) or if we’re headed to up-thrust condition.

If GLD breaks the trend-line, getting back to the 170 – 171, level (up-thrust), imagine the hysteria. 🙂

Lastly, Biotech (LABD):

First: Did we exit LABD?

Answer is No (not advice, not a recommendation)

Second: Why?

The price action thrusts below support that have been reported in prior posts were indeed spring set-ups.

However, it’s obvious now, they were not THE set-up.

The chart shows LABD has met an ‘a-b-c’ measured move target.

The idealized form of an ‘a-b-c’ corrective move, is shown with the blue lines and notations:

At this juncture, wave ‘a’ net distance traveled, is equal to ‘c’ and wave ‘b’ net distance, is about 50% the length of wave ‘a’.

These measurements are typical for ‘a-b-c’.

Positioning:

My firm’s main position is still showing a good profit and we’re going to maintain short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, as with GDX being at the danger point before its rally, so too is biotech at the danger point (prior to a potential decline).

Expectations are for LABD to retrace higher from current levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

It’s Your Fault !

‘You’re The Problem’

Here’s one guy that finally figured out gold’s not moving higher as expected (as he has been touting) in anticipation of ‘rampant’ inflation.

As a reminder, this site stated from the outset, there’s little-to-no inflation.

Prices going up are the result, in large part from the intentional destruction of the supply chain.

Why that’s happening is a topic for another time. One clue is, if you’re starving, you’ll do whatever you’re told.

However, let’s not digress.

So, what’s the reason gold (and silver) are not moving higher? Well, that’s easy:

It’s because of you!

Yes, you the ‘investor’ are the problem. You are the reason that gold and the mining stocks are not moving higher.

You can’t make this stuff up.

Since he (Schiff) ‘put it out there’, his reasons are fair game for discussion.

Performing A Public Service:

In a way, the linked article is a fantastic public service.

Just like the biotech sector intentionally euthanizing (a polite word for what’s really happening) its customer base, here we have another entity calling out its own followers as the problem.

It’s similar to the rabid, mindless, one-way (only goes up) gold bulls crying ‘it’s all rigged’, when their pathetic attempts at analysis don’t work out; we now have another entity citing YOU as the problem when the forecasts fall flat.

This is yet another so-called financial source that can be permanently crossed off the watch list.

Brutal, But Beneficial:

Admittedly, the ‘tone’ of the posts on this site are not for everyone.

Even mild-mannered Dan at I Allegedly, finds himself responding to snowflakes that complain about his ‘get ready’ posts.

There’s good reason why the average are so ignorant.

For those who were actually listening in middle-school, the history books conveniently leave out the part where millions of Americans died of starvation during the Great Depression.

No pictures of emaciated bodies. Nothing.

With what’s coming, we’re likely headed for mass casualties in one form or another. The financial community refuses (from what I’ve seen) to discuss this up-coming event.

For example:

If you’re still using a ‘financial advisor’ and they’re not talking about, or don’t know about the elephant, do you really want to be (paying for and) taking direction from someone who’s that lazy, fearful, or ignorant?

Prechter, said it himself when he stated, the next mega bear market’s going to wipe out the ‘wealth management’ industry.

We may be on the cusp of that now.

Not Advice:

With that said, this site does not, and will not give financial advice.

Each person has his (her) own situation in life. You are the one to decide on your next direction or action.

What this site does do, is attempt to provide analysis and supporting price action data on what’s really going on.

What’s the market saying about itself?

If you’re still reading, that was a very long intro to get to our topic for the day: Gold miners, GDX.

Wyckoff Analysis: Senior Miners, GDX

What we see from the weekly chart is straightforward.

GDX, has been channeling lower for about a year:

The next chart shows we’ve penetrated support and are now testing the underside.

Of note: GDX is in ‘spring’ position. An upward attempt is to be expected.

If GDX was to break out and start a sustained bull move, this would be the spot. We’re at the danger point.

In my view, the participants in this sector are borderline delusional, if not completely insane.

They disregard what the market’s actually doing; holding to a (so far, for years now) unverified belief that ‘$10,000/oz gold, is just around the corner.’

It could very well be … but only after the (possibly, soon to be) starving stackers have sold off their hoard to buy food.

One has to wrap their mind around the fact, we’re being subjected to a long term diabolical plan.

Thinking and acting with that long game in mind (in my view) provides at least a hope for not only survival, but positioning to prosper during the on-going collapse.

Lastly, here’s a link to a previous analysis on GDX.

Decide for yourself whether or not that information provided a service and/or was useful and timely.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Dollar Ruse

What if it’s all a lie?

It seems that its been going on forever we’ve heard phrases like: ‘dollar destruction’, ‘gold’s going to $10,000,/oz’., ‘rampant inflation’, ‘hyperinflation’ and on.

What if (speculated in yesterday’s post), it’s all a lie?

It takes a very flexible mind (technically termed, “neural plasticity”) to be able to wrap itself around and understand the diabolical agenda being played out before us.

The good news is, Wyckoff analysis cuts through all the lies.

Now past a century old, this technique has stood the test of time.

Which brings us to the dollar.

Dollar Destruction: Just Another Lie

Reminder: Way back in late December of 2020, was the first bullish update on the dollar.

The next chart shows UUP, may be in a trend and just about to contact overhead resistance.

We’ll investigate further how UUP behaves if and when it gets into the resistance area.

One thing about the dollar that’s obvious from the chart, it’s not going down.

At this juncture, there’s no dollar destruction.

The dollar and gold are still inversely correlated.

That means continued downward pressure on the metals and upward pressure on the dollar.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Three In A Row

Early Session

It’s Official:

Down, Three Quarters In A Row

No other major index has three consecutive quarters lower.

Even the gold miners (GDX, GDXJ), while in a bear market, still had an up quarter with the one ending June 30th, this year.

So, what does this mean?

Slow At First. Then, All At Once:

The first answer is the obvious one; the air is slowly but steadily (thus far) coming out of this sector.

The second answer is more complicated.

As discussed yesterday, we’ve seen the phenomenon of instantaneous focus shift in disparate parties … a well documented and repeated occurrence in the animal kingdom.

We could see a similar thing with biotech or the markets overall.

As Dan from I Allegedly reported yesterday, the container ship pile-up off the coast and slow unloading is intentional.

The resulting shortages are intentional.

The corresponding price rises (camouflaged as ‘inflation’ by the media), are intentional.

It’s possible (speculation) that by having prices go up and the media touting it as inflation, the public, pile into the corresponding sectors such as gold, silver and the miners … all of which have been heading lower.

More importantly, what this crowd does NOT do, is go the other direction; sell and sell short, stockpile food, water, medicine, tools, hardware, consumables, protection, backup power.

Of course, some of them are.

However, just in my neighborhood as I look around and down the street, there are fifteen houses that are visible.

I know for a fact, only two (this residence and the neighbor across the street) have been, and are, taking preparatory action: That equates to 13%.

Driving through the neighborhood to get to a main road, there are about another 40 homes.

I can see, none of them have an operation garden (or livestock) of any kind: That makes our ‘prep’ percentage go down to 3.6.%.

The real percentage (for the entire neighborhood) may be close to 0.5%, or less.

This is probably a typical number but your mileage may vary.

Instantaneous Shift:

That low percentage (0.5%), gives a clue to how vicious a down-draft could be once everyone realizes they’ve been had.

Couple that with our ‘elephant’ from yesterday, and it may be absolute insanity.

All of which, brings us to the chart of biotech (SPBIO).

SPBIO Analysis:

Not only was it a down quarter but on a monthly and weekly basis, SPBIO has posted reversal and continuation (down) bars respectively.

The unmarked monthly chart of SPBIO, is below:

The next two charts show monthly reversal bars and then a Fibonacci projection to lower levels.

The projection was taken from the all time high on February 9th, this year, to the intermediate low, May 11th; then the counter-trend pivot high on June 28th.

It’s interesting to note; the monthly reversal bars are Fibonacci 8-months apart.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Changes Character

Mid Session

Another Bell Rings

Gold (GLD) was on track to continue higher into a potential up-thrust … right up to yesterday.

That’s when the character of price action changed.

Action suddenly had a down day with no buoyancy. That was the clue something else is at work.

Today, we saw the result.

At this juncture, with world events picking up yet again, we probably just entered or are about to enter a deflation impulse.

Summary:

The gold and mining sector continues to be chocked full of delusional bulls and rabid hyper-inflationists.

Just take a cursory look at YouTube sites that continue to ‘stack’. As repeated many times over the past year the ‘hyperinflation’ narrative is just not happening.

Food price increases along with fuel and shipping, are all related to a controlled demolition of the supply chain.

It’s not hyper-inflation.

It really does not take much research effort to figure that part out.

If there is a trade here, we’re going to leave it (not advice, not a recommendation) and just watch to see where the carnage goes.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Lower ? … Not Yet

Mid Session

Gold (GLD) Pivoting Higher

The last update on gold (GLD) has us expecting an up-thrust (reversal) condition.

Even though price action immediately pushed away from the resistance area, there’s still a possibility GLD is on track to recover and move higher.

Downward action in GLD has stalled and looks like it’s building energy for an attempted breakout.

If and when we get an up-thrust … that’s the time to expect fireworks in the mining sector.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Signs of Order

After The Close

Fibonacci Width Channel

Fibonacci Sequence On Trend

Adhering to Fibonacci time sequencing does not guarantee anything.

What it does tell us in the case of GDX (daily) below, is that price action’s exhibiting order.

Fibonacci width on the GDX trading channel can be seen here.

Order is what usually comes before dis-order 🙂

It won’t take much force either way, to negate the down-channel set up; or allow gold and the miners to descend into bear market chaos.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Bulls … Exhausted?

Mid-Session

Intraday Hourly GDX Reversal: Signs of Trouble?

It took one more day than expected.

With a slight new daily high, we’re potentially at the end of the GDX rally.

It should be noted: The past two weeks of trading have stayed within the price extremes of the wide bar posted during the week of August 20th.

This is called ‘inside action’; typically signaling preparation for the next phase … whether up or down.

Note, the inverse fund DUST pushed just 0.02 points (DUST, 19.78) below our stop level (not advice, not a recommendation).

That position was elected to be maintained … we’re still short.

The hourly unmarked chart of GDX is below:

Next, we invert the chart to mimic the inverse fund DUST:

Now, comes the mark-up:

From Wyckoff’s writings all the way back to circa 1910, he discussed ‘shortening of the thrust’.

When net progress becomes less and less … we know we’re nearing the end of the move.

Throw into the mix the high level of resistance at the GDX 33.00, and probabilities favor the downside … upside for DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Bulls … Time To Hide?

Late Session

GDX Breakdown, Draws Nigh?

We’re not there yet and anything can happen in the meantime.

However, Senior Miner’s GDX, price action has moved lower during this session as expected.

Today has offered up one more clue for the bears provided GDX closes lower.

That is, we may have a channel confirmation:

Fibonacci time sequences are not necessarily always at price extremes. As shown above, they can define the width of a trading channel as well.

If this short (sell) set-up fails (GDX moves higher), we now have a definitive stop area for inverse fund DUST (not advice, not a recommendation); somewhere around: DUST 19.80 – 20.00.

Steven Van Metre in his last update, gave data on how the dollar is in a rally and nearing breakout position.

So far, there’s still a negative correlation between the dollar, gold, and gold miners.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.