Bitcoin to Replace Gold?

That’s according to this episode from the Keiser Report.

Before we address that ‘report’, first this:

The video at this link (until it gets removed) is only 3:37 minutes long … but it explains everything.

It’s a well orchestrated script. 

How else would every single major corporation have exactly the same advertisements? 

Exactly the same; Literally, word-for-word.

So, bitcoin to replace gold? … it’s not even necessary to waste time with an answer. The deeper question is, what’s really going on with gold?

Gold is part of the script as well:

Gold is subdividing lower at this juncture. 

One target level from this update puts it around the $1,300-area.  By that time and if it gets there, the objective is met. 

There will be few-to-none of the original bulls left to buy in … their money gone; used to pay bills, buy food or worse … bitcoin … right in time for a major solar flare to knock out the entire electronic grid.

Listen to the “Report” and how the big names are bandied about.  They have the big bucks … you don’t.  So, listen to them.  They are the elite.

No, they are part of (and always have been) the coordinated effort to subjugate the masses.

It’s just now, there are enough ‘asleep’ with huge numbers of the population flu-shotted, vaccinated, fluoridated, medicated into complete stupidity; or just too afraid of the truth. 

It’s not necessary to hide the message. What are you going to do … “elect” someone to change it? Got that one covered.

If you have read this far … yours is a different story.  Welcome to reality.

One part of that reality is the markets are a wealth-transfer process which is now in overdrive. 

Looking at the daily newsfeeds, it’s obvious (or should be) to the old-timers, the lies and miss-direction have gone to a whole new level.

Wyckoff’s admonition about listening to the news is more true now than a century ago.

Ignoring those news-feeds and focusing on price action, the initial analysis of gold and the miners from late October, was spot on. 

The beginning trade in this series was a short position (via JDST) entered on Friday November 6th, when gold was at intermediate highs.

That short was held over a tense weekend.

Going against hundreds of thousands if not millions (on the other side of the trade) is difficult indeed.

Robert Prechter in his writings has detailed how hard it is to override the limbic (herd) system of the brain and operate separate from the crowd; nearly impossible.

By late Sunday – early Monday, gold futures (GCZ20) had collapsed.

The trade was closed out on November 9th, with a solid 13.22% gain.

Recognizing that JDST had more downward bias error than DUST, the next short position was initiated on the senior index (not advice, not a recommendation).

The GDX chart below (expandable version here) shows it’s following Fibonacci projections lower. 

It would be nice from a profit stand-point for GDX to reach all the way to the 16-area (blue oval).

Even Steven Van Metre has indicated several times in his reports, this area is his target as well.

After all, who is going to listen to some guy whose wife made his “Like” and “Subscribe” flash-cards from cardboard and sticks?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Make It Stop

The gold bulls are trapped and the market is eroding away. 

The weekly chart of GLD (farther down), shows this past week was the opportunity for GLD to move higher.

It didn’t happen. 

Some of the YouTube sites that are monitored, have caught on something’s very wrong with the bullish picture. 

However, there are literally millions positioned (or at least thinking) on one side of the trade. Without neural plasticity to switch gears and re-position, at low risk no less, the pain is likely to be severe.

The same goes for the overall market. 

Steven Van Metre, in his Friday update stated, ‘retail investors are all-in at the highest level in market history’.

Yet he says, the market did not move significantly higher.  That’s the clue.  It’s likely we’ve seen the highs.

There’s more middle class destruction on the way with shutdowns and restrictions; all under the guise of the speck.   

If the speck is so bad, where are the bodies?

Take a trip to your local graveyard … you’ll probably find the caretaker asleep on his back-hoe … waiting like the Maytag repairman.

There are no bodies except for the odd duffer that died while on a ventilator … ah yes, the ventilator, that topic is for another time. 

Those flexible enough, the entrepreneurs, picked up on this scenario long ago and have responded accordingly. 

The only way out is self-employment; separate from the crowd.  Even that’s no guarantee but at least it provides some time and flexibility.

Getting back to the markets, we see the S&P and Dow at their highs (possibly topping-out) while gold and the miners have already rolled over. 

Senior miner index GDX, has now posted an outside down (key reversal) on the monthly chart. 

We have one more trading week to go (plus one day), but it’s likely the key reversal will stick.

As always, even with the lower action just passed, upward movement next week (if any) could happen but it’s likely to be halting and laborious.

If the overall markets head lower, the uneducated public once again and by their own actions, have set the stage for their financial destruction. 

Only this time, it’s over.  There will be no recovery.

As the downturn sets in and jobs continue to disappear, the calls to ‘make it stop’ will become ever so shrill. 

The masses will be desperate enough to line up for government assistance and allow (even beg for) the catch … be injected first; No matter who is in office.

There’s a reason, professional, seasoned hard as nails (even profane) market traders are quoting Biblical scripture.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dazed and Confused

That’s what hyperinflation gold bulls must be feeling; dazed and confused.

Certainly, we all know from a long-term macro perspective, all fiat currencies go to zero. 

It took the Roman Empire somewhere around 300 years to debase their currency to zero.

So, it’s what happens in-between; that’s the important part.

The old trading books like Reminiscences of A Stock Operator and Studies in Tape Reading are replete with speculators being on the wrong side of the trade.

Some of them realize the error, get themselves righted and back on the direction of trend.  Others, like in one Livermore example (the cotton trade) go bankrupt.

Just to see how big the hyperinflation crowd is, we’ve added up the total number of subscribers to bullish YouTube channels listed in this update

That list for sure, is a small fraction of bullish ‘content’ available.  At a total of 674,000 subscribers, it’s already a huge number.  The actual size of all such content is most likely in the millions.

Note the word “content”, is amorphous.  It just means ‘there’s something in there’.  It does not mean that ‘something’ is of any use. 

When reading through the old trading stories, we see the great speculators operated alone. At times, they employed a support staff of ‘board boys’, writing quotes down on the chalk boards but not much else.

If you’re alone, direction changes happen instantly. Changing direction that fast for millions … not a chance.

At this time in the pre-market (9:03, a.m. EST), gold (GLD) is set to open lower with GDX indicating lower as well.

Looking at the chart of GDX, we’ve got a possible trend line. 

Such lines make things a bit easier.  If there is confirmation on the way down, we maintain the DUST trade (not advice, not a recommendation); until the trend is broken.

Current stop (not advice, not a recommendation) is set at DUST 18.92

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Projections: Lower

In the overnight and early morning, gold futures GCZ20, posted a new daily high and a new daily low:  Outside down. 

Gold continues its move lower.

Before we can begin to get downside targets for gold, we have to go way back to the original start of the gold rally

Back to January 20th, 2001.

Gold reached a low near 254/oz – 255/oz

Using that knowledge, we can create a Fibonacci projection tool for the chart of GLD.

The GLD data on the chart does not go back that far.  So, we have to improvise.

Taking the Fib projection tool down to the 24 – 25 area of the chart and then identifying a major top of the move during the financial crisis of 2007 – 2008, gives us the chart shown below.

Expandable version of both charts, here

Note the multiple price action contact points on the 61.8 projection.  This area is an axis line.  The market oscillated around this area for nearly 10-years, before heading on to new all-time highs.

The axis lines and reversal points on the chart provide confirmation we have selected the price action waves correctly.

Using the same 25-area on GLD, we’re gong to remove the projection tool and use the retrace tool and then zoom in using the weekly chart.

That chart is below:

There is a lot going on with this chart.  Note the wide, high-volume bar.  Volume for that week was about double from the week prior.

Markets tend to go back to these areas for a test.

That area also represents a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace of the entire move off the February 2001, lows.

On top of that, a retrace to GLD 130, is a near exact -33% from the highs. 

If that weren’t enough, price action getting to that level would automatically set-up a Wyckoff spring (reversal) condition by penetrating the support area shown.

Will this all happen?  Obviously it’s unknown at this point. However, it does give us context.

As always, price action is the final arbiter.  We’re short on the GDX, the Major Miners via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).  Our original stop was probably too tight at just 0.41 points from entry.

We’ll see how it works out.  Certainly, we are at another danger point.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Impulse Power

Deflationary impulse is a term that is used to describe the potential decline in gold and silver prices.

If that’s what’s coming, it looks like it’s already started.

The weekly chart of GLD below, shows the long-term action in the sector. 

We have a trading range that formed during 2013 – 2019.  That range gave a projected ‘measured move’, to the 185-area for GLD.

The target has been met.  The bullish trade is over and now something else is being created.

That something from the circled area shown, expanded at the bottom of the chart, appears to be a reversal (Wyckoff up-thrust) condition.

The up-thrust was tested early in the reversal (first arrow) and this past week looks like a secondary test.  Secondary tests do happen.  Not too often but its acceptable market behavior.

In the updates here and here, the overnight futures price action was used to determine this past Friday, 13th, was a 38% retrace of the most recent down move; indicating weakness.

Anything can happen. GLD could open higher on Monday and somehow power its way through the down-trend line shown in Friday’s update.

However, probabilities based on the combined analysis point to continued downside action.

If we get a decline, how far would it go?

Price action permitting, we’ll cover downside targets in the Monday pre-market update.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Testing: 1, 2, 3

The dollar has reversed and is now testing the lows. 

Conversely, when we look at the price action of gold (GLD) its collapse exactly mimics the dollar’s reversal.

Taking into account the futures market activity in gold, it made new daily highs last week during the overnight session, Sunday-to-Monday. 

Using that knowledge on GLD, (adding it to price action) it retraced to 38%, of the recent down move this past Friday.

If we’re in a real bona fide reversal of the dollar and gold (posting more confirmation on gold tomorrow), then expectations are for continued gold downside during the coming week.

The dollar, bonds and gold, at this juncture are moving in tandem:  Dollar and bonds up, gold (and silver) down.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Rally Failing

At this juncture (2:40 p.m. EST), price action in GLD has verified the down trend and is pulling away; confirming that last week’s action was a major trap for the bulls.

Although not required by this site as there are no recommendations or advice, as a courtesy housekeeping notes are provided:

The DXD trade was exited at about break-even. Price action is moving too low (DIA higher) for continued maintenance on this trade.

A short position in the mining index GDX (Major Miners), was opened at DUST 18.86, when it bacame obvious that GLD was pulling away from the trend as shown.

Hard stop DUST, 18.45 (not a recommendation, not advice)

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Market Top?

Was that it?.  Did we see the all time high in the markets, Monday?

The short answer of course, it’s not known. 

The longer answer is, to go short the market at this point (Monday’s session) was a low risk entry; not advice, not a recommendation.

The inverse chart of the Dow, DXD (above) shows our initial entry.  We’re green at the end of the day and have hard stop, GTC, at 13.32.

Tomorrow’s open could be a gap-lower for the Dow, that spends the rest of the session attempting to retrace higher.  If so and depending on the behavior of that price action, it may provide an opportunity to add to the position.

Separately, the gold and related GDXJ, JDST had such sharp moves during Monday’s session that JDST was exited completely and yielded a gain of about 12%.

Gold is likely to retrace higher and possibly offer another low risk (short) position in the miners via JDST.

The trading actions are being directed by the market. It would be nice to have a slower more well behaved situation. However, that’s not the case and the trading response matches the market (price action) dictates.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Hyperinflation: Hit Hard

The regular session is still thirty minutes away and already gold’s had it’s largest down-swing since August 11th.

Bulls must be stunned.  It’s not supposed to be this way.

Of course, the financial press has to come up with some kind of ‘reason’, so there’re off plying their trade. 

At this juncture, before the open, December gold is down about 4%. 

The dollar is slightly higher as forecast but bonds … TLT, down a whopping 2% in pre-market. 

How can bonds be down (rates up) with the dollar higher and gold lower?

The question itself, is an error.

It’s not ‘why’ that’s important, it’s ‘what’.  Asking why keeps one searching for the wrong answer.  It’s exactly what the media and those manipulating the markets want.

The trail of why goes on forever and leads nowhere.  The why is constantly changing second by second, minute by minute. 

Asking ‘what’ is a different story; what is the gold market doing?  Now, that’s a question.

The gold market is down hard; Very hard.  Shocked bulls, married to their ‘hyperinflation’ narrative, will have to see it as a buying opportunity.

Expect gold to retrace somewhat during this session.  However, the damage has been done. Gold (GLD) is below well established support levels … now resistance areas.

In related markets, the Junior Mining Index, GDXJ is down -5.75% in the pre-market session.  Correspondingly, the inverse fund JDST, is up a stiff 11.5%.

As stated in this update (not advice, not a recommendation), the position in JDST was re-established during Friday’s session. 

Obviously, we’re keeping that position for now and will monitor price action to determine a new stop location.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Inflation Fairy Tale

Truth comes only to those who actively seek it. 

This site works to present truth as background or ‘macro’ as it were and then look for price action set-ups correlating with truth.

It turns out (as some may have suspected) the ‘inflation’ narrative is a myth.  It’s just another lie that’s being perpetrated by the powers that be (TPTB). 

According to Jeff Snider and Steven Van Metre, at time stamp 21:30, there’s no way TPTB are going to correct the public’s perception that hyperinflation is right around the corner. 

It serves their purpose to have the masses in complete delusion … always setting up on the wrong side of the trade.

Using price action itself, problems with the hyperinflation narrative were presented in this update

Gold is near all time highs.  However, Junior Mining Index, GDXJ, and Senior Mining Index, GDX are far below their previous highs.  The junior’s are the weakest and so that’s been the focus.

In a bear market, focus on the weak sectors.

No doubt, there are a lot of well respected traders, analysts, YouTuber’s that are on the bullish side of the market.  Here are just some examples, here, here, and here.

So, at this juncture, this firm is taking the opposite side of the trade with its re-established position in JDST.

Hard stop in the market GTC, is at 8.82 (not advice, not a recommendation).

If stopped out, we’ll reassess and determine if another entry is warranted.

Even if the trade proves to be wrong, it’s a low probability that price action will break out of the GLD trading channel shown (below) in just one attempt. 

Typically, price action needs to retrace (lower) to gain enough fuel for a breakout.

If the retrace occurs, it will put the JDST position in profit with the miners down accordingly.  Doing so gives the ability to analyze the situation with objectivity.

We’re looking for a swing lower to the bottom of the trading range (at a minimum) for GDXJ.  Just a few of the empirical and technical conditions that favor such a move are listed:

Price action (GDXJ) finished at the high of its recent trading range and resistance. It thus created a Wyckoff up-thrust, reversal condition.

The GDXJ move over the past week generated a wide, high volume price bar.  Such areas tend to be tested (retraced) by the market.

GDXJ finished at a high on a Friday.  Monday’s are typically down or a retrace day.

Gold retraced up to its own 50% level and has contacted the right side of a down-trend line.  Lower price action in the coming week is expected.

The dollar has its own reversal set-up in progress. 

Dollar, UUP price action penetrated minor support (Wyckoff spring, reversal condition) and is close to a major support level.

Dollar up, gold down.

In summary are two charts of GLD and one of GDXJ, below:

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.