No ‘Soft Landing’ or ‘Hard Landing’

There’s Only, ‘Collapse’

The ‘narratives’ are false.

There’s no ‘recovery’, no ‘soft landing’, no ‘hard landing’.

There’s no ‘housing boom’, no ‘inflation’, and maybe most of all, no (sustainable) ‘Electrical Vehicle’ market.

What there is …. is ‘collapse’.

Collapsing food supply, collapsing economy, collapsing real estate, collapsing employment and collapsing (electrical grid) infrastructure.

How do we know that?

The price action (the market) itself, says so.

Wyckoff, The Rest, and Gold

As stated in the last update, unlike other analysis methods, Wyckoff looks at what the market is saying about itself.

The market itself, defines the next likely course of action.

Two days ago, gold was used as the example.

Contrary to the ZeroHedge report linked in the prior update, Wyckoff analysis revealed the most probable direction for gold, was down.

The Gold (GLD) Market

The Fed announcement late Wednesday, resulted in a ‘blip’ higher for gold that stalled-out, the next day.

However, that announcement, may have confirmed a trend change in GLD.

Looking at the chart below, it’s possible that Wednesday identified a more aggressive trendline, lower.

Gold (GLD), Daily

It’s about an hour after the open.

This is how it looks for GLD.

The new trendline and trading channel are clear; trending lower at approximately -60%, annualized.

The next chart is a zoom of the pivot area.

If there ever was going to be a Fed ‘Pivot’, this was it. 🙂

The price increases being touted as ‘inflation’ are clearly the result of supply destruction.

You can’t have 90+ ‘food processing plant fires’ in the past year or so and not have it affect prices at the supermarket.

Same goes for crop failures or lack of harvest world-wide.

Summary

As always, anything can happen. Gold could reverse and mount some kind of rally.

If somehow, there’s a change of demand, it will show up on the tape (the chart) as a change of character.

So far, there is none.

Most likely direction remains to lower levels.

Parting Shot

Just to illustrate the point of ‘collapse’, we’ll leave off with this recent report from Scott Walters.

The real estate example shown is the River Oaks area of Houston … Highly affluent.

There’s no debate.

It’s a collapse, when a house has to drop $20 million, from $26.5-mil to $6.5-mil, and Still Not Sell!

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Tipping Point’ For Gold ?

“Sentiment Is Negative” … So What?

No sooner had the bearish report on silver been released, than we have a bullish report on gold at ZeroHedge; linked here.

We’re going to address the bullish view briefly but succinctly, with the weekly chart of gold (GLD) below … but first.

When ‘Sentiment’ Works

One little trading nugget that took about 25-years to find out (your mileage may vary), was that in a sustained up or downtrend, sentiment is largely, irrelevant.

In the ZeroHedge report linked above, the ‘little guy’ (i.e. sentiment) is bearish or negative. We all know the little guy is nearly always wrong.

Not to worry.

If gold and silver move decidedly lower from here, our ‘little guy’ will think he’s a genius.

He’ll begin (or continue) to post all kinds of philosophical memes on twitter and Facebook; then set himself up for the big whammy farther down the road. 🙂

The pros will get their money no doubt; they’re patient.

Now, on to the weekly chart for gold (GLD).

Gold (GLD), Weekly Close

We’ve already discussed how penetrating support will put gold (GLD) in Wyckoff spring position.

It’s clear we are there now.

As it says in the chart, support penetration was preceded by a very weak bounce.

The difference between Wyckoff analysis and others is that Wyckoff focuses on what the market’s saying about itself.

At this juncture, price action to the upside (the bounce) is weak; suggesting that momentum remains to lower levels.

The following chart is a zoom of that bounce area.

Summary

This update’s several hours before the 2:00 p.m., EST, Fed announcement … likely to be a non-event, anyway.

Nonetheless, if there’s a significant change in price action, we’ll review it at that time.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Cue The Hype

What If Europe Abandons ‘Green Energy?’

The ‘Texas Freeze‘ laid bare the farce that is ‘renewable’ energy.

Will this coming winter do the same for Europe?

Like a limpet on an ocean liner, the ‘silver squeeze’ idea won’t go away.

Here we have yet another report; linked here.

The data in the report’s not in dispute. If that data is to be believed (no reason not to), silver stockpiles are shrinking.

Even so, the major trend-change (down) in silver was identified way back in February of 2021; reports are linked here and here.

The second report stated silver had ‘changed hands’ from strong to weak.

It’s been nearly 20 months since then; silver remains below that February 1st, 2021, level and is down -35.7%, as of Friday’s close.

I like silver as much as the next guy but what we’re discussing here, is strategy.

Silver To Single Digits?

Is that even possible?

Well, was oil going negative possible?

Not until it happened.

The monthly chart of SLV below, has a standard Fibonacci projection shown. Note how at 23.6%, the projection shows price action tapped and reversed down.

Next up is 38.2% at around 13.75, and then 50%, below the 10-area.

Silver SLV, Monthly Chart

Zoom version

And then, a trading channel.

Both silver and gold, are at The Danger Point.

Gold has pushed below support and is currently in Wyckoff spring position.

Silver is below the 20-area, which is established support.

If a rally is in the cards, this is the place to start.

A failure to move decisively higher at this point signals the potential for much lower prices ahead.

Summary

The next update will discuss various tactics that could be used if/when there’s a major downdraft.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Penetrates Support

The ‘Inflation’ Narrative Is False

How do we know the ‘narrative’ is false?

Because the price action tells us at this juncture, we’re in some kind of ‘deflation’ impulse.

Taking it a step further, what happens if we don’t get the much assumed ‘hyperinflation’.

What if something else is afoot?

Remember, a Black Swan can also be an upcoming event that’s widely accepted as fact but does not happen.

Now, to the ‘inflation’ indicator itself: Gold

Gold (GLD) Weekly Close

The downside penetration is clear.

GLD, is at The Danger Point.

If we really do have inflation and gold’s going to launch much higher, the last report stated, penetrating support and setting up a Wyckoff ‘spring’ condition would be a good place to start.

So, here we are.

As this post is being created, GLD is rebounding higher by about +0.50%.

This is normal market behavior.

However, the next chart says gold’s likely to have a hard time moving decisively higher.

On a weekly close basis, gold’s in a confirmed downward channel.

It’s going to take a lot of demand to break out of that trend.

Summary

So, far, the attitude of the ‘average investor’ to gold’s decline is “Good, I’ll just buy more.”

Six months or a year from now, when food supplies have run out or become so expensive, only ‘zee bugs’ will be reasonably priced, one has to wonder if we’ll all have the same attitude.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Ready To Move

Up or Down ?

Before we get started, no analysis would be complete without the latest mega bull forecasts for gold.

Here they are:

“Everyone Is WRONG About This Cycle” – Peter Schiff

Well, ok. I only have one bullish report.

Since it’s from Schiff, do we really need more? 🙂

Remember, back when it was the Russians that were going to move gold higher? You really can’t make this stuff up.

So, let’s move on and take a look at the truth … the price action for gold (GLD).

Gold (GLD), Daily Close

The un-marked daily chart shows about three-years of price action.

The next chart shows the ‘Changing of Hands’ that was first identified over four months ago in this post.

Also shown is the current (channel) trendline that appears to be in effect; GLD, is ‘respecting’ the line.

The left side channel line is grey in color so that multiple hits are shown more clearly.

However, the next chart is where it gets interesting.

If or when GLD penetrates support, it would by definition be set-up in Wyckoff ‘spring position’.

If GLD, was going to launch to new all-time highs, getting itself into ‘spring position’ would be an excellent place to start the move.

If and when there’s penetration of support, one thing to watch closely is the volume.

Would it be another high volume ‘changing of hands’ (for the upside) or a low volume affair that grinds on down.

Summary

From a fundamental standpoint, where’s the money going to come from to increase the demand for gold?

We’re already at the front end of (very likely) the largest real estate crash in U.S. history.

The consumer’s tapped out with record high credit card debt; mass layoffs have already started.

Bankruptcies in some areas are up over 100% from last year. Bankruptcy means ‘liquidation’ and that includes any precious metals.

Anything can happen and gold could rally.

However, the backdrop of demand destruction and asset collapse, suggest the direction for gold continues to be to lower levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

GDX, Down 5-Months, & Counting

Way Back, To 2012

We have to go all the way back nearly ten-years, to find five consecutive down-months.

The bear market in the miners GDX, and GDXJ, is not any news to those accessing (or following) this site over the long-haul.

Nearly two years ago, this report pegged the bear market before it was even a blip in anyone else’s pineal gland. 🙂

That fact’s proven-out by the listing of no fewer than ten links to other analyst’s super-bullish posts on gold and gold miners.

It’s safe to say at that time, everybody else was pointed in one (bullish) direction.

So, what’s happened to GDX (and GDXJ) since that October 25th, 2020, report?

GDX, is down approximately – 38.2%, and GDXJ, has declined – 47.6%.

Not exactly a bull market.

Senior Miners, GDX, Monthly Bar

Looking at the chart, it’s obvious; the prior ‘five-months’, distance traveled, was much less than our current situation.

Add to that, there’s no real support until lower levels. The decline’s free to continue, unabated.

Summary

This site’s primary focus is strategy. The longer term, the better.

Including the October 25th, 2020, report on the gold miners, we’re coming up on several other significant two-year anniversaries:

Bitcoin to Replace Gold?

Dollar Reversal; Ready

Corn Goes Vertical

Let’s not forget, ‘The Speck’, as we call it, was identified as a hoax well over two years ago; documented with this post.

The intuitive assessment of only partial data (at best) was, and probably will remain, the most important post of all.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s Downside … Just Starting

Long Term ‘Changing of Hands’

A bearish analysis for gold?

What kind of idiot would think that gold (GLD) is going lower?

Well, for starters, it’s not what one ‘thinks’ that’s important.

Way back, when I was being mentored by the late David Weis, he never started our sessions with ‘what do you think’.

No, he always started by presenting a chart and then asking (and I quote), “What do you see?”

It was never ‘what’s the Fed doing’ or ‘what’s Cramer saying’ (that’s an easy one), or ‘what are earnings’ or any other number of useless, distracting rabbit-holes.

“What do you see?”

With that, we’re going to look at the long-term chart of gold (GLD) on a weekly close basis.

Gold (GLD) Weekly Close

With the passing days, weeks and now months, we can see there’s been a significant, potentially long-lasting reversal to the downside.

The prior report linked here, contains no fewer than seven other links to gold (GLD) that identified ‘changing of hands’ in various stages as it transpired.

Slow Motion Train-Wreck

So far, events in gold have been moving slowly and thus hypnotizing the gold bulls.

It was nearly two-years (20-months) between the Wyckoff Up-Thrust high (8/6/20), and the test of that high (3/8/22).

Enough time to put everybody to sleep.

At this point, GLD is back down near support levels … another bounce higher is not unreasonable.

However, it’s trading in a downward channel (not shown) that’s declining at approximately – 30%, annualized.

The above linked report presents long-term downside targets for GLD (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘Event’

As Pinball Preparedness puts it, each day that passes brings us one day closer to ‘the event’.

None of us in the proletariat know what the event will be.

It could be an excuse as disconnected as Archduke Ferdinand.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech: Before The Open

Last Session’s Record Volume

Depending on today’s action, yesterday may have been a ‘changing of hands’ for biotech; specifically, the leveraged inverse fund LABD.

We’ll start first with the longer time frame; the weekly, to show that SPBIO is at or near a Fibonacci 23.6% retrace.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

Looking just to the left of the right-side action we see a significant congestion area that’s highlighted below.

Note how price action has oscillated around that area.

It’s about three-months at this level before breaking lower and now, coming back to test.

The resistance is significant.

Next, is the inverse fund’s daily chart and the record volume.

SPBIO Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

Depending on today’s action, this is a potential ‘changing of hands’ from weak to strong.

We saw that such volume in the gold market (GLD) was indeed an infection point.

Concerning gold (GLD), back on March 20th, the report linked here, had this to say:

“From a Wyckoff, tape-reading approach, we have to trust what the chart is telling us.

That is, gold has reversed.”

How true that was. GLD never looked back and is now down around – 18%, from its highs.

The same could be happening for biotech.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Panning for Gold @ $1,300/oz.

Gold Could “Unwind”, In A Sharp Decline

As far as is known, no other site has identified, gold (GLD) has “changed hands” with the next probable direction, as sideways or down.

That is, until now.

Sometimes, it literally takes years to find anything useful from mainstream financial media. However, you really can’t blame them; it’s not their job to reveal the truth.

By chance, every once in a while, someone makes a mistake and bits of truth, escape.

That may be where we are with the following Kitco NEWS interview, linked here.

It’s worth a half-hour to watch the entire exchange but for us, the real business starts at time stamp: 19:05.

The Overall Gold, Premise:

If the dollar moves sharply higher and the markets move lower (or crash), gold’s response may be a wash-out to $1,300/oz., or lower.

“Changing of Hands” as identified on this site, was mostly intuitive. We won’t know for sure if it was the (real) inflection point until gold resolves itself.

Now, we have another view from a separate party (above), that at least recognizes gold’s downside potential.

With that said, let’s look at gold (GLD), Quarterly

Gold (GLD), Quarterly Chart

There are only two trading days left in the quarter; it’s reasonable to think we’ll get something similar to the un-marked chart below.

The next chart shows the Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) along with an attempt to move higher (the test) that was rejected; prices continued lower.

The next chart is the one no gold bull wants to see; downside projection(s).

Using a standard Fibonacci tool, we have the above projections.

If there’s a major unwind of gold positions, price could decline to the GLD, 133-area, corresponding roughly to physical gold @ $1,300/oz.

Uncharted & Unprecedented

The caveat: We’re not in any time that’s happened before (other than maybe the collapse of the Roman Empire).

It’s uncharted territory.

We should expect market events to reach never before seen extremes. That would include the potential for a severe draw-down in gold.

The World, Then

If gold gets to the $1,300/oz level, it would easily be considered a buying opportunity.

What if gold keeps going lower, moving below $1,000/oz?

The second projection, targets approximately $950/oz.

What, then?

What if the $1,300 level, was bought by those with means, using both hands … including massive margin (if it’s still available).

What happens if there’s another leg down; then margin calls?

Can’t happen one might say.

Well, oil going negative for the first time in history couldn’t happen either … until it did.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Seabridge Gold … Strategy Update

Lying In Wait … For Opportunity

As the ‘About‘ section says, this site provides one leader’s view on the market; what can best be termed as ‘Strategic Leadership’.

So, just what is that, exactly.

A good example is the current biotech analysis and action.

Biotech strategy, thus far.

No. 1:

Recognize biotech (SPBIO), as bear market leader.

No. 2:

Wait for opportunity to position short via LABD, on an upside reversal; A Wyckoff, up-thrust.

No. 3:

Monitor and increase the short position as the market allows. Continue until targets are met or stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).

As can be seen, hereherehere, and here, the trade LABD-22-03, is progressing well.

It should be noted, this trade could be over in minutes, or go on for months. The price action itself, will decide when it’s complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, on to gold in general and Seabridge, specifically.

The Gold Reversal

We’ve had several updates that show gold (GLD) has changed hands; from strong to weak.

Quite obviously, this assessment is completely opposite the narrative and the crowd consensus.

However, price action itself, has told us there’s been a reversal.

Recent posts here, here, here, here and here, successively build on themselves showing at this juncture, the gold direction, is down.

Leading Edge Chaos

Evidence continues to build, we’re just on the leading edge of chaos; likely to last for years, if not decades.

Go to time stamp 1:12 at this link and observe one of many efforts already in place to take down the current system.

Chaos, Opportunity, and Seabridge

All of the above brings us to Seabridge Gold (SA).

Going way back, 20-months, to the first post on SA, and taking the following from that report:

“If and when the markets (S&P, Dow, NASDAQ) reverse in earnest, there’s likely to be widespread panic. Just like last time [2007 – 2008] and probably worse.

As a side note: If and when we get there (panic selling), and if SA pushes below well-established support (6-area), the initial plan is to open a major long position … but with a significant caveat.

That caveat is:  We’ll take possession of the actual physical shares (not advice, not a recommendation).  The broker could put up a fuss and charge a fee.  So be it.”

Now, that’s a strategy.

Back then, nearly two years ago, it was not so obvious why having the physical shares was important. I think the reasons for doing so now, are clear.

Let’s move on to the actual chart of SA and look at probabilities.

Seabridge Gold (SA), Quarterly Chart

One thing is obvious just looking at the un-marked chart:

The bull market for SA, ended years ago; October of 2007, to be exact.

The actual price of gold (GLD) went on higher for over three-more years. Yet, SA languished.

Now, gold (GLD) has potentially reversed and there’s possibility for significant downside.

How significant? Well, somewhere in the range of $1,300/oz, or even lower.

Which brings us to the same chart of SA but adding Fibonacci projections.

SA, Quarterly Chart, Fibonacci Projection(s)

Getting closer-in with the zoom, we see the market itself has already validated those projections; especially the 38.2, level.

The 50% projection is near 5.00, and the 61.8%, is all the way down to 0.49 – 0.51.

Seabridge down to 50-cents, is that possible?

The Great Depression, 2.0

Those attempting to equate current events with the Great Depression, are at least doing the good work of recognizing the similarities and possibilities.

In the case of Neil McCoy-Ward, (linked above), he recognizes this time, is a whole other animal.

So, the answer is yes … SA could go to 50-cents. If and when it does, nobody will want to buy.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279