Panning for Gold @ $1,300/oz.

Gold Could “Unwind”, In A Sharp Decline

As far as is known, no other site has identified, gold (GLD) has “changed hands” with the next probable direction, as sideways or down.

That is, until now.

Sometimes, it literally takes years to find anything useful from mainstream financial media. However, you really can’t blame them; it’s not their job to reveal the truth.

By chance, every once in a while, someone makes a mistake and bits of truth, escape.

That may be where we are with the following Kitco NEWS interview, linked here.

It’s worth a half-hour to watch the entire exchange but for us, the real business starts at time stamp: 19:05.

The Overall Gold, Premise:

If the dollar moves sharply higher and the markets move lower (or crash), gold’s response may be a wash-out to $1,300/oz., or lower.

“Changing of Hands” as identified on this site, was mostly intuitive. We won’t know for sure if it was the (real) inflection point until gold resolves itself.

Now, we have another view from a separate party (above), that at least recognizes gold’s downside potential.

With that said, let’s look at gold (GLD), Quarterly

Gold (GLD), Quarterly Chart

There are only two trading days left in the quarter; it’s reasonable to think we’ll get something similar to the un-marked chart below.

The next chart shows the Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) along with an attempt to move higher (the test) that was rejected; prices continued lower.

The next chart is the one no gold bull wants to see; downside projection(s).

Using a standard Fibonacci tool, we have the above projections.

If there’s a major unwind of gold positions, price could decline to the GLD, 133-area, corresponding roughly to physical gold @ $1,300/oz.

Uncharted & Unprecedented

The caveat: We’re not in any time that’s happened before (other than maybe the collapse of the Roman Empire).

It’s uncharted territory.

We should expect market events to reach never before seen extremes. That would include the potential for a severe draw-down in gold.

The World, Then

If gold gets to the $1,300/oz level, it would easily be considered a buying opportunity.

What if gold keeps going lower, moving below $1,000/oz?

The second projection, targets approximately $950/oz.

What, then?

What if the $1,300 level, was bought by those with means, using both hands … including massive margin (if it’s still available).

What happens if there’s another leg down; then margin calls?

Can’t happen one might say.

Well, oil going negative for the first time in history couldn’t happen either … until it did.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Seabridge Gold … Strategy Update

Lying In Wait … For Opportunity

As the ‘About‘ section says, this site provides one leader’s view on the market; what can best be termed as ‘Strategic Leadership’.

So, just what is that, exactly.

A good example is the current biotech analysis and action.

Biotech strategy, thus far.

No. 1:

Recognize biotech (SPBIO), as bear market leader.

No. 2:

Wait for opportunity to position short via LABD, on an upside reversal; A Wyckoff, up-thrust.

No. 3:

Monitor and increase the short position as the market allows. Continue until targets are met or stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).

As can be seen, hereherehere, and here, the trade LABD-22-03, is progressing well.

It should be noted, this trade could be over in minutes, or go on for months. The price action itself, will decide when it’s complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, on to gold in general and Seabridge, specifically.

The Gold Reversal

We’ve had several updates that show gold (GLD) has changed hands; from strong to weak.

Quite obviously, this assessment is completely opposite the narrative and the crowd consensus.

However, price action itself, has told us there’s been a reversal.

Recent posts here, here, here, here and here, successively build on themselves showing at this juncture, the gold direction, is down.

Leading Edge Chaos

Evidence continues to build, we’re just on the leading edge of chaos; likely to last for years, if not decades.

Go to time stamp 1:12 at this link and observe one of many efforts already in place to take down the current system.

Chaos, Opportunity, and Seabridge

All of the above brings us to Seabridge Gold (SA).

Going way back, 20-months, to the first post on SA, and taking the following from that report:

“If and when the markets (S&P, Dow, NASDAQ) reverse in earnest, there’s likely to be widespread panic. Just like last time [2007 – 2008] and probably worse.

As a side note: If and when we get there (panic selling), and if SA pushes below well-established support (6-area), the initial plan is to open a major long position … but with a significant caveat.

That caveat is:  We’ll take possession of the actual physical shares (not advice, not a recommendation).  The broker could put up a fuss and charge a fee.  So be it.”

Now, that’s a strategy.

Back then, nearly two years ago, it was not so obvious why having the physical shares was important. I think the reasons for doing so now, are clear.

Let’s move on to the actual chart of SA and look at probabilities.

Seabridge Gold (SA), Quarterly Chart

One thing is obvious just looking at the un-marked chart:

The bull market for SA, ended years ago; October of 2007, to be exact.

The actual price of gold (GLD) went on higher for over three-more years. Yet, SA languished.

Now, gold (GLD) has potentially reversed and there’s possibility for significant downside.

How significant? Well, somewhere in the range of $1,300/oz, or even lower.

Which brings us to the same chart of SA but adding Fibonacci projections.

SA, Quarterly Chart, Fibonacci Projection(s)

Getting closer-in with the zoom, we see the market itself has already validated those projections; especially the 38.2, level.

The 50% projection is near 5.00, and the 61.8%, is all the way down to 0.49 – 0.51.

Seabridge down to 50-cents, is that possible?

The Great Depression, 2.0

Those attempting to equate current events with the Great Depression, are at least doing the good work of recognizing the similarities and possibilities.

In the case of Neil McCoy-Ward, (linked above), he recognizes this time, is a whole other animal.

So, the answer is yes … SA could go to 50-cents. If and when it does, nobody will want to buy.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold is Down … What ?

Supposed ‘Safe-Haven’, Goes South

With this morning’s turmoil, gold “should” be higher, right?

Before we even get started, everyone needs to know or be reminded, the word “should” is a ruse; it’s a trap.

Just like there’s no crying in baseball, there’s no “should” in the markets.

Instead, we replace that word with any of the following: Expectation, probability, empirical, set-up, and not the least of which is, ‘price action’.

Case In Point

Gold is down hard but it should be higher.

Coming from that perspective, then leaves you scratching your head, attempting to figure out ‘why’ gold has not moved higher.

With that, off we go on a never-ending rabbit trail having full encouragement of the financial press; making sure you never find the answer.

On the flip side, coming from a Wyckoff perspective, we look at gold (GLD) and ask the following:

What is the market saying about itself?

That brings us to Friday’s action and the chart of gold (GLD), below.

Gold (GLD), Daily

Long-time users of this site may instantly recognize the set-up.

To help make it more clear, we’ll go down to the hourly chart and mark it up.

Gold (GLD) Hourly

There we have it.

The repeating pattern of “Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Let’s go back to the daily and put in the same notations.

Gold (GLD), Daily

Following on with this morning’s action we have this.

Price action has already posted a new daily low; adding confirmation, the trend remains down.

The fact there was heavy volume this past Friday, sets the hook even deeper into the bulls.

This action, up-thrust plus volume, may result in yet another sustained pivot to the downside.

Summary

It took me twenty-years of diligent search to eventually find the answers to market behavior.

That answer came in 2007, in the form of Wyckoff analysis and the late David Weis, with his video, linked here.

I was fortunate to be mentored by him before he became somewhat of a star … having a waiting list a mile long.

After that, was the constant study of his daily market updates for more nuggets of wisdom.

In a nutshell:

Gold (GLD) reversed today, because price action got itself into an up-thrust condition after launching from a spring set-up.

That’s it.

There’s no CNBC, no Fed, no Fast Money, no Russians, no Hyper-Inflation; just the market, itself.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miner Reversal … 7-Weeks Later

Strategy Update … GDXJ

Wyckoff and Fibonacci analysis allowed the reversal of gold miners GDXJ, to be identified to the week and then, to the day.

A quick review of this post, is the reversal on a weekly basis and this one is a follow-up, showing Fibonacci correlation on a daily basis.

If we want to go way-back, this report, shows the miners were not in a bull market and have not been for some time; for years, actually.

That does not mean there were no trades for upside or downside; there were.

However, from a strategy standpoint, gold miners are not bullish.

So, let’s look at the Junior Miners GDXJ, as it’s the weakest in the sector.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Chart

Un-marked

First Mark-up

The reversal is at Fibonacci 89-weeks, plus one day.

However, it’s the next chart that’s more disconcerting for the bulls.

Price action reversed right at a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace; indicating severe weakness (if it holds).

The two black lines above the 23.6%, are 38.2%, and 50%, respectively.

The next chart zooms into the reversal area.

This week has already posted a new weekly low, providing additional confirmation of the reversal.

As gold, silver and the associated miners reverse lower, we have news reports of precious metals purchases going off the charts.

Where was everybody in 2001, as gold was bottoming?

That’s, 2001 – to – 2022, a Fibonacci, 21-years.

Which brings us to the next point.

The YouTube “Herd”, is Forming

Several YouTube sites that have been monitored for years, have recently blown-up, passing 100,000 subscribers; more than a few are past 200,000 or higher.

Recently, they have started giving each other ‘shout-outs’, to indicate their approval of that particular site’s ‘content’.

Viewer, Beware

By definition, the ‘herd’, does not have the right answer.

Each one is now monitoring what the other one is doing; they are all, influencing themselves.

The only way to have a hope of getting unique insight is to remain aloof. Wyckoff described this exact phenomenon in his autobiography.

He had very wealthy clients that wanted to get closer (unlimited) access to him. To this overture, he refused.

He isolated himself and remained cloistered.

Summary

Thus far, the analysis of gold ‘changing hands‘ remains intact. Gold continues to be well off its highs; silver is not anywhere close.

Strategy, Tactics, and Focus.

The Junior Miner’s reversal can’t be disputed … there it is.

If precious metals and the miners are not responding to all the ‘money printing;’, then something else’s afoot that’s not being revealed to us in the proletariat.

That ‘something’, is probably starvation … which gets us back to Genesis 41; corn and grain come first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … After The Reversal

Changing of Hands’

It’s a significant, if not major event, when one market participant (collectively) hands off the trading vehicle to another.

In a decline, that usually means the ‘average investor’, the least disciplined, least knowledgeable, gives up and hands off to the professionals; the ‘strong hands’.

In a blow-off top, the reverse is true.

The professionals lead the ignorant along with whatever narrative is necessary so that enough volume is created to successfully exit positions.

The changing of hands for gold and gold miners, was identified on this site, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here, starting over two-and-a-half months ago.

The analysis was consistent throughout; we are not in a long-term, sustainable, bull market. That stance applied most specifically to gold miners GDX, and GDXJ.

For that assessment to change, price action itself would have to change character; not the lagging momentum indicators, moving averages, price oscillators and so on that are themselves, defined by price action.

So, let’s take a look at what gold (GLD) is saying about itself.

Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart

First, the un-marked chart.

Next, we see a medium to long term trendline that’s been decisively broken and tested.

Getting closer-in, we can see the oscillation about the line, the break and subsequent test (with reversal).

What’s Next?

Well, that brings us to Harry Dent.

Love him or hate him. Here he is, offering up a perspective that’s not going to be popular.

How can gold (GLD) decline from here?

Let’s take a look.

If the wedge above is in-effect, if it’s the dominant factor at this point, then a break depending on location would take GLD down to about 130-ish.

If that happens, it will be a big event … down to approximately $1,300/oz.

However, it’s what may come next, that will be totally unexpected.

It’s interesting, the wedge in blue has a measured move target right to the bottom of the larger wedge in magenta.

To get below $900/oz, will be a very different place.

With that in mind, this site has presented time and again, we’re in an unprecedented world-event.

‘Normal’ is not coming back … ever.

Awake, or Not

Jerimiah Babe, in one of his latest videos hints there’s a strange vibe to what’s happening: Time stamp 5:20,

‘There’s something going on here …’

The Fed may actually be telling us the truth … just not in the way we expect.

You have to be awake to read between the lines.

Inflation may indeed be ‘transitory’ as they say because consumer demand is going to evaporate.

Evaporate not because the consumer can’t afford it, but because there are, or will be, no consumers.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


Newmont’s New Highs

How Long Will This Last ?

Looking at the charts below, the amount capital being thrown at the last man standing, NEM, is stunning.

A real sustainable precious metals (and stocks) bull market typically starts with the weakest sectors.

They are the ones in the worst financial shape. They are the ones to benefit the most from an increase in metals prices.

That’s not happening.

Instead, we have what looks to be a market thinning out, on a massive scale.

Everything being poured into the leader … Newmont.

The charts below are from Monday’s close. Scroll up and down to get a ‘feel’ for what’s really happening.

It’s a bull market, non-confirmation on a huge scale.

Basically, the rest of the market, the rest of the Senior Miners and Juniors, don’t believe current conditions are sustainable.

How could they be?

Let’s get real and pose even the most basic questions.

How are these operations going to get spare parts or new equipment for their operations? How are they going to feed their employees?

Lastly, what about the ones that have forced their workforce to be injected?

Newmont (NEM), Weekly Close

Senior Miners, GDX, Weekly Close

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

The price action alone, tells us capital is flowing out of all sectors and into Newmont (NEM).

Just to make sure the herd continues to herd; that no-one else, is presenting this information, here’s a brief list of recent ‘analysis’.

Me-Too: Gold To The Moon

Will Gold give a Massive Breakout From it’s Sideways Trend ? Lyn Alden Prediction

Gold & Silver Breakout | On Track to Go Higher

GOLD Prices Will Not Stop RISING!! BUY GOLD Before This Happens.. – Chris Vermeulen | Prediction

Gold Breakout: Breakaway Gaps Confirmed

Silver Will Hit $1200/OZ as Russia Invades Ukraine – Lynette Zang | Silver Price Prediction

Gold price rally will power to $2,700, then $7,400 as ‘perfect storm’ brews – Chris Vermeulen

__________________________________________________

A Different View

Momentum indicators are pointing higher for both gold and the miners … that does not mean it’s a buy (not advice, not a recommendation).

For both GDX, and GDXJ, they’re entering up-thrust (potential reversal) territory as discussed in a previous post.

It’s time to monitor the sector for potential exhaustion and change of momentum.

That momentum could take a while to bleed-off … being patient is just one requirement for successful speculation.

Summary

From the panic, you would think no one’s ever seen a down market. On top of that, we’re potentially just getting underway.

This is the exact environment where Wycoff analysis comes to the fore: ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’

That analysis says, gold and the miners could still push a bit higher but there are huge disconnects under the surface; not the least of which, silver’s also not confirming the move.

More on that, later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dent In The Gold ‘Armor’

Sometimes, It’s Just One Sentence

‘If Russia’s commodity sales decline, it could sell-off some of its gold reserves to pay for war in the Ukraine.’

That, my friends may be the clue, the dent, the chink in the armor.

What if everybody (i.e., other nations) winds up in a similar spot for various reasons … being forced to sell off gold reserves?

It’s early in this session and gold’s attempting to breakout above well-established resistance.

For GLD, the 76.4%, Fibonacci retrace is near 185.50 – 185.60.

Currently GLD, has posted an intraday high of 185.40.

Gold (GLD), Daily Close

Getting closer in on the action (below) we see GLD, at or near 76.4%, retrace, attempting to break through established resistance at the same level.

We’re obviously at the danger point.

It’s time for GLD, to decide on its next move.

Strategy Note

From a strategy standpoint, we can almost feel the pressures. Emerging Markets (EEM) continues to decline with TSM, leading the way.

Obviously, downward pressure.

Then, we have upward pressure on the metals (less so, silver) and the big question is … Is this pressure temporary?

Are all sectors (ex. food/energy) in decline with gold/silver just the last ones to reverse?

Price action itself will let us know.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Breakout, Will It Hold ?

Pushing Past Resistance

Measured Moves

Overlapping Price Action

Gold (GLD) has pushed past prior resistance and is now hovering at the 177.00 – 177.50 level.

International tensions are the usual excuse for the metal’s move but has it really done anything out of its recent norm?

This is a good time to see what the gold market is saying about itself.

Gold (GLD) Daily Chart

We’re going to use a somewhat compressed version of GLD. The reason for that will become apparent.

Starting with the un-marked daily chart below:

First is the obvious Wyckoff up-thrust (potential reversal) condition.

Price action has pushed past resistance and is now hovering at the 177.50, area … as if unsure what to do next.

GLD can come back and test on its way higher; it can come back, test and fail into a downside reversal.

The next chart is where it gets depressing for the bulls.

Price action in GLD, shows the current rally’s distance, is no different than it’s been for at least the past year.

We’ve highlighted the most recent move in blue and then moved that same line back to prior moves of nearly the exact same distance (magenta lines).

So, gold’s not doing anything out of the norm (so far) that it hasn’t done already.

Note how the entire twelve months shows price action as choppy and over-lapping.

This type of deep retracement action is characteristic of a countertrend move … that is, gold moving higher in choppy action is actually counter to its main trend … down.

Summary

With the dollar moving higher and the continued possibility of gold/dollar inverse correlation, somebody’s likely to reverse … soon.

The dollar’s been in a year-plus long upside reversal. The weight’s on the gold bulls to prove the dollar/gold inverse correlation is disconnecting.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold: Reversal & Test

Sitting On A Wall

All that volume and every bullish attempt, couldn’t put the gold market back together again.

In what looks like short-covering, the gold market (GLD), spent most of the day attempting to recover from its fall over the past two sessions.

It didn’t make it.

The close was lower and volume increased by 29%, from the prior session.

Gold (GLD) Daily

Volume increases as price is rising for the day and yet the close is lower.

Typically, a bearish configuration.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Whacked Again !

Hit During The Early Hours

It was a nasty mess for the gold bulls during the futures, pre-market session.

As price action pushed upward past the (GCG22) 1,820 area, volume increased significantly.

Good or bad, it means something’s about to happen.

Happen, it did.

Price action was only above 1,820 for about fifteen-minutes; then eroded back into the range.

In total, GCG22, dropped 12-points in just 25-minutes, going well below the established trading range.

If we look at the un-marked daily chart of gold (GLD), it does not look like much is happening.

Gold (GLD), Daily

Marking it up, gives a better perspective.

Now, it does not look so good for the bulls.

The chart below, zooms-in

While all this is going on in the gold market, the GDX miners (below) are posting their own (potential) reversal.

It’s potential at this point as we’re about mid-session.

Trade Model Review

Trade: DUST-21-01

  1. The Set-Up: Complete
  2. The ‘test’ or ‘gut-check’: Complete
  3. The first ‘correction’: Complete**
  4. Continuation or Failure
    1. Trend identification
    2. Potential channel(s)
  5. Exit process
    1. Scale out
    2. Full exit
  6. Post trade evaluation

** To verify the completion, we’ll need a daily reversal (today) as well as a new daily GDX low in the following session(s); not advice, not a recommendation.

Summary:

From the trade model, the ‘first correction’ may be completing during this session.

If that’s the case and gold bulls are trapped yet again, this time around, price action’s not likely to be so tenuous.

The bears may be ready to ‘slice and dice’. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279