Gold Bulls … Stage Is Set

Dollar’s Absent From The Show

To get the gold bulls in a hypnotic trance, thinking $3,000/oz. is just around the corner, the appropriate press releases need to be created.

As if on cue, reported by Jerimiah Babe, big names are coming out to say ‘hyperinflation’s’ a sure thing.

If it’s not happening now (as we speak) it’s bound to happen very soon.

In fact, just look at the prices (time stamp 1:30). Those price increases are proof.

Never mind the hundred or so ships off CA, or even the containers just happening to ‘slide off’ into the sea.

But wait, what about the fire?

No manufactured (um, sorry ‘supply chain’) crisis would be complete without a fire.

However, there’s a problem with all this hypnotizing the masses to hyperinflation.

That problem is … the dollar’s not playing along.

Dollar, UUP Analysis:

In fact, the dollar is showing significant strength.

It’s right at Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace (very shallow) and appears ready to move higher.

The weekly chart of UUP, is below and includes the Fibonacci levels.

The next chart expands the last few weeks to show contact with the 23.6%, line and what looks like a nascent move up:

If UUP manages to make a new weekly high above last week’s 25.24, level, we have confirmation it’s attempting to continue the reversal and up-trend.

That reversal started way back at the beginning of this year.

This is what was said back then when the dollar looked poised for imminent collapse.

If gold and the dollar are still inversely correlated, the dollar appears ready for an upside breakout; obviously, a breakout higher would then put down pressure on gold.

Gold (GLD) Reversal:

Five weeks ago, the potential for a significant gold (GLD) reversal was discussed at this link.

That idea was updated last Friday at this link.

Then, over the weekend we’ve discovered one other analyst coming up with their own version.

At this juncture, GLD continues to ratchet higher to the 171 – 175 target area.

That move’s happening along with the requisite press generated hysteria … helping lead the bulls to a potential last stand.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Coup D’état, Draws Nigh

Leading Gold Bulls To The Last Stand

It’s your host’s engineering background that causes him to go looking for supporting data (or lack of) when presenting a contrary opinion or analysis.

Usually, that means sifting through randomly selected research or YouTube links on the subject; just to make sure the idea’s not being discussed by someone else.

This round’s sample of links is provided for reference below.

The Alpha FX

Capital-com

Kitco NEWS

None of them even hint of a potential ‘gold bull trap’.

Of the three, Kitco NEWS, receives the day’s honorable mention.

It contained the most amount of useless information; All of it, jam packed into a 21-minute period.

Particularly egregious was (time stamp 18:35), “Sentiment always follows price”.

Sorry Charlie. Star-Kist wants only the best.

The proper sequence is: Sentiment, Volume, then Price. 🙂

The Potential Gold (GLD) Set-Up:

We’re calling the ‘coup d’état’, for lack of a better description.

The bullish hype is so bad and the me-too-ism on YouTube is so disgusting; being devoid of original thought (i.e., it’s a set-up), one has to be prepared for the opposite.

If GLD, manages to move higher to the 172 -175, area, it could be the final thrust before a wrenching sharp, or sustained decline.

The last time gold was discussed in detail was this post.

Gold (GLD) Analysis:

Daily chart (mid-session) of GLD, with the set-up target is below:

The first time the up-thrust target (above) was presented, was this post in September.

These charts are an example of what strategy is all about.

Price action after that post, seemed to negate the possibility and so the idea was tabled.

Now, with the GLD reversal off the lows in late September, we’re back on.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Gets Whacked !

Mid Session

… But, That’s Not The Real Story

First, this morning’s action in gold (GLD) tells us, it’s not a bull market.

The asylum escapees (gold bulls) from yesterday, might paint today’s action as a buying opportunity.

Well, it could be a buying opportunity for short term trades (not advice, not a recommendation) but that’s not what this site is about.

Bull markets do not let you get aboard comfortably.

Case in point:

For those old enough to remember, harken back to the bull market launch of 1995.

Remember that?

It seemed like every day was up into new highs with nary a retracement until a year and a half later.

No, there’s something else going on with gold.

It may indeed continue to move lower from here. However, there’s a price action feel that’s not right.

GLD:

Potential Coup D’état Set-Up ?

Those who own the gold market(s) know full well, there’s a bunch of rabid ‘collapse’ types who believe the metal’s their salvation ticket out of events to come.

Those in control, need to get as many as possible on the wrong side of the trade before there can be a sustained long-term (or fast and sharp) down move.

Such a move, if it goes low enough and fast enough, would likely take out the majority of the ‘stacking’ community.

Looking at the un-marked chart of gold (GLD), just where would that location be … where everyone, except the few, are positioned incorrectly?

As discussed previously, the area shown below would be a good location for an up-thrust (reversal) condition.

In addition, that location’s between the 38% and 50%, retrace level(s) from August 2020, to March 2021.

One can speculate on just what would cause or enable a last-gasp push higher above the GLD 171, level.

Well, for starters, how about a massive volcanic eruption that results in long-term destruction on both sides of the Atlantic.

As Dan (I Allegedly) says with his post just out, ‘the economy is in a perfect storm’.

Anything can happen.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Think, ‘Inside The Box’

Late Session

Or … Who’s In Charge Of The News?

Answer:

The same people who came up with the tag line appearing simultaneously throughout every major corporation:

“We’re all in this together.”

Remember that?

I have an engineering buddy that founded his own muscle car performance company (think “steeroids®”) and he told me the following:

“Once you get out of the corporate world, you won’t be able to think straight for about six months to a year.”

I didn’t quite understand what he meant … that is, until I left the corporate world.

It was just as he said. Six months before the fog began to lift.

Steered To and Fro:

Each corporate directive or news story is out there for a reason. Someone (much higher up) had to decide on its creation and release.

Once out of the box, you can see (if you’re awake) just how much and how deep was/is the control.

What does all that have to do with the markets?

Well, let’s take a look at the latest case of (hyperinflation induced dollar collapse) herd behavior; the gold market.

Gold To Rally?

The gold lunatics are out again … having escaped the asylum yet one more time.

Of course, this upward bounce was predicted well in advance:

Of note: GDX is in ‘spring’ position. An upward attempt is to be expected.

If GDX was to break out and start a sustained bull move, this would be the spot. We’re at the danger point.

Gold and GDX, have indeed put in some kind of a rally. However, let’s see what the gold market (GLD), is saying about itself:

Gold (GLD) Analysis:

As of this post, this is how it looks.

Marking up with a tend-line gets us the following:

On a longer term perspective and if the trendline is broken, we can go back to the original idea of an up-thrust set-up:

As is typical for this site, we’ll let the bulls duke it out with the bears. We’ll wait and see if we’re at a reversal point (trend-line) or if we’re headed to up-thrust condition.

If GLD breaks the trend-line, getting back to the 170 – 171, level (up-thrust), imagine the hysteria. 🙂

Lastly, Biotech (LABD):

First: Did we exit LABD?

Answer is No (not advice, not a recommendation)

Second: Why?

The price action thrusts below support that have been reported in prior posts were indeed spring set-ups.

However, it’s obvious now, they were not THE set-up.

The chart shows LABD has met an ‘a-b-c’ measured move target.

The idealized form of an ‘a-b-c’ corrective move, is shown with the blue lines and notations:

At this juncture, wave ‘a’ net distance traveled, is equal to ‘c’ and wave ‘b’ net distance, is about 50% the length of wave ‘a’.

These measurements are typical for ‘a-b-c’.

Positioning:

My firm’s main position is still showing a good profit and we’re going to maintain short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, as with GDX being at the danger point before its rally, so too is biotech at the danger point (prior to a potential decline).

Expectations are for LABD to retrace higher from current levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Stacking’ … Strategic Error ?

Late Session

How many of our YouTube ‘stackers’ are chess players?

A quick check of three popular (randomly picked) ‘stacking’ YouTubers, has one showing his intro with a pile of silver being stacked under the floor.

The other has ‘trinkets’ on her desk and supposed collectibles behind her.

The other has gone as far to say, the reason gold and silver are not going higher, is because of the public itself.

No overt reference to chess or any reference to chess play as a means of addressing market conditions.

They may indeed have knowledge but they’re not showing it as a matter of course.

If memory serves, one of Richard Denis’ interview questions to his potential ‘Turtle’ trader(s) was whether he (she) played chess.

Take look at the host site’s business logo (Three Ten Trading, LLC) and we’ll leave the discussion there.

It’s the author’s opinion, the ‘stacker’ sites are in the business of getting more business; not analyzing the markets with any high level of thought or seriousness.

However, they might have a purpose.

It’s possible, they fulfill the ‘bread and circuses’ void that’s the hallmark of an empire’s collapse; which brings us to the situation at hand.

This ‘collapse’ we’re in, is a process not an event.

As we continue on, it’s becoming clear that single-mindedly stockpiling inedible metal in hopes of surviving what’s here now, and what’s coming, is a major (if not potentially fatal) blunder.

The players on this global chess board are making their moves and then counter moves.

Case in point is Southwest Airlines cancellations and shutdown.

Southwest Airlines:

The company has made its move.

The employees countered with their move. Perhaps even more importantly, they did it with bravery.

It’s likely, a large part of them, if not all (who are not showing up for work) will eventually be terminated.

It’s also reasonable to think when they made their move, they understood full well, the potential (termination) outcome.

Economic Shutdown:

As ZeroHedge reports, what if more corporations experience similar (employee walk-out) events?

What if it’s a mass exodus?

Is anybody really ready to walk or ride their bike … even a horse, to work because there’s no fuel at the gas station?

If there’s no fuel, there are no deliveries of any kind.

A check of the Home Depot, in this area has it relatively stocked in the garden section.

However, from a personal standpoint, after checking the local Tractor Supply, there’s no Jobe’s (organic) fertilizer to be found at either site (save the one torn bag at Home Depot).

The shelves are empty … for that item at least.

Mass Psychological Shift

Remember our example of herd behavior? That it can turn on a dime; doing it instantly across thousands of miles?

Storable food is running low. What about seeds and fertilizer?

Genesis 41

What happens when the public realizes all-at-once, it’s the food supply that’s not ever (in quantity) coming back?

Suppose they collectively decide (rightly or wrongly), the ‘stackers’ are just another herd of followers.

That it was all yet another lie; a diversion away from the real problem.

Silver and gold are great if you already have it.

However, this site’s sticking to the Biblical, Genesis 41, world view.

That is, corn and grain (food) come first. Then, gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

Remember, Joseph was paid first (for grain) with money (i.e., the silver stack).

When the money was exhausted, livestock was used.

When that ran out, the people sold themselves into slavery to obtain food.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

It’s Your Fault !

‘You’re The Problem’

Here’s one guy that finally figured out gold’s not moving higher as expected (as he has been touting) in anticipation of ‘rampant’ inflation.

As a reminder, this site stated from the outset, there’s little-to-no inflation.

Prices going up are the result, in large part from the intentional destruction of the supply chain.

Why that’s happening is a topic for another time. One clue is, if you’re starving, you’ll do whatever you’re told.

However, let’s not digress.

So, what’s the reason gold (and silver) are not moving higher? Well, that’s easy:

It’s because of you!

Yes, you the ‘investor’ are the problem. You are the reason that gold and the mining stocks are not moving higher.

You can’t make this stuff up.

Since he (Schiff) ‘put it out there’, his reasons are fair game for discussion.

Performing A Public Service:

In a way, the linked article is a fantastic public service.

Just like the biotech sector intentionally euthanizing (a polite word for what’s really happening) its customer base, here we have another entity calling out its own followers as the problem.

It’s similar to the rabid, mindless, one-way (only goes up) gold bulls crying ‘it’s all rigged’, when their pathetic attempts at analysis don’t work out; we now have another entity citing YOU as the problem when the forecasts fall flat.

This is yet another so-called financial source that can be permanently crossed off the watch list.

Brutal, But Beneficial:

Admittedly, the ‘tone’ of the posts on this site are not for everyone.

Even mild-mannered Dan at I Allegedly, finds himself responding to snowflakes that complain about his ‘get ready’ posts.

There’s good reason why the average are so ignorant.

For those who were actually listening in middle-school, the history books conveniently leave out the part where millions of Americans died of starvation during the Great Depression.

No pictures of emaciated bodies. Nothing.

With what’s coming, we’re likely headed for mass casualties in one form or another. The financial community refuses (from what I’ve seen) to discuss this up-coming event.

For example:

If you’re still using a ‘financial advisor’ and they’re not talking about, or don’t know about the elephant, do you really want to be (paying for and) taking direction from someone who’s that lazy, fearful, or ignorant?

Prechter, said it himself when he stated, the next mega bear market’s going to wipe out the ‘wealth management’ industry.

We may be on the cusp of that now.

Not Advice:

With that said, this site does not, and will not give financial advice.

Each person has his (her) own situation in life. You are the one to decide on your next direction or action.

What this site does do, is attempt to provide analysis and supporting price action data on what’s really going on.

What’s the market saying about itself?

If you’re still reading, that was a very long intro to get to our topic for the day: Gold miners, GDX.

Wyckoff Analysis: Senior Miners, GDX

What we see from the weekly chart is straightforward.

GDX, has been channeling lower for about a year:

The next chart shows we’ve penetrated support and are now testing the underside.

Of note: GDX is in ‘spring’ position. An upward attempt is to be expected.

If GDX was to break out and start a sustained bull move, this would be the spot. We’re at the danger point.

In my view, the participants in this sector are borderline delusional, if not completely insane.

They disregard what the market’s actually doing; holding to a (so far, for years now) unverified belief that ‘$10,000/oz gold, is just around the corner.’

It could very well be … but only after the (possibly, soon to be) starving stackers have sold off their hoard to buy food.

One has to wrap their mind around the fact, we’re being subjected to a long term diabolical plan.

Thinking and acting with that long game in mind (in my view) provides at least a hope for not only survival, but positioning to prosper during the on-going collapse.

Lastly, here’s a link to a previous analysis on GDX.

Decide for yourself whether or not that information provided a service and/or was useful and timely.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Changes Character

Mid Session

Another Bell Rings

Gold (GLD) was on track to continue higher into a potential up-thrust … right up to yesterday.

That’s when the character of price action changed.

Action suddenly had a down day with no buoyancy. That was the clue something else is at work.

Today, we saw the result.

At this juncture, with world events picking up yet again, we probably just entered or are about to enter a deflation impulse.

Summary:

The gold and mining sector continues to be chocked full of delusional bulls and rabid hyper-inflationists.

Just take a cursory look at YouTube sites that continue to ‘stack’. As repeated many times over the past year the ‘hyperinflation’ narrative is just not happening.

Food price increases along with fuel and shipping, are all related to a controlled demolition of the supply chain.

It’s not hyper-inflation.

It really does not take much research effort to figure that part out.

If there is a trade here, we’re going to leave it (not advice, not a recommendation) and just watch to see where the carnage goes.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Lower ? … Not Yet

Mid Session

Gold (GLD) Pivoting Higher

The last update on gold (GLD) has us expecting an up-thrust (reversal) condition.

Even though price action immediately pushed away from the resistance area, there’s still a possibility GLD is on track to recover and move higher.

Downward action in GLD has stalled and looks like it’s building energy for an attempted breakout.

If and when we get an up-thrust … that’s the time to expect fireworks in the mining sector.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Pushes Higher

Fibonacci Order No Longer

It didn’t take long for the ordered price action discussed in the last update to break down.

Action in both gold (GLD) and GDX pushed through their own resistance levels.

During Friday’s session, all GDX short positions were closed out (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, what’s next?

If we look at the price action of gold (GLD) we see a potential set-up in progress.

That set-up is the phenomenon of repeating ‘spring to up-thrust’

The daily chart of GLD shows its been in a spring generated rally. As of the close Friday it’s at well defined resistance.

Price action determines market (trading) action. So we’ll see if GLD breaks out decisively to the upside or breaks out and stalls.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Signs of Order

After The Close

Fibonacci Width Channel

Fibonacci Sequence On Trend

Adhering to Fibonacci time sequencing does not guarantee anything.

What it does tell us in the case of GDX (daily) below, is that price action’s exhibiting order.

Fibonacci width on the GDX trading channel can be seen here.

Order is what usually comes before dis-order 🙂

It won’t take much force either way, to negate the down-channel set up; or allow gold and the miners to descend into bear market chaos.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.