Gold: Reversal & Test

Sitting On A Wall

All that volume and every bullish attempt, couldn’t put the gold market back together again.

In what looks like short-covering, the gold market (GLD), spent most of the day attempting to recover from its fall over the past two sessions.

It didn’t make it.

The close was lower and volume increased by 29%, from the prior session.

Gold (GLD) Daily

Volume increases as price is rising for the day and yet the close is lower.

Typically, a bearish configuration.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Whacked Again !

Hit During The Early Hours

It was a nasty mess for the gold bulls during the futures, pre-market session.

As price action pushed upward past the (GCG22) 1,820 area, volume increased significantly.

Good or bad, it means something’s about to happen.

Happen, it did.

Price action was only above 1,820 for about fifteen-minutes; then eroded back into the range.

In total, GCG22, dropped 12-points in just 25-minutes, going well below the established trading range.

If we look at the un-marked daily chart of gold (GLD), it does not look like much is happening.

Gold (GLD), Daily

Marking it up, gives a better perspective.

Now, it does not look so good for the bulls.

The chart below, zooms-in

While all this is going on in the gold market, the GDX miners (below) are posting their own (potential) reversal.

It’s potential at this point as we’re about mid-session.

Trade Model Review

Trade: DUST-21-01

  1. The Set-Up: Complete
  2. The ‘test’ or ‘gut-check’: Complete
  3. The first ‘correction’: Complete**
  4. Continuation or Failure
    1. Trend identification
    2. Potential channel(s)
  5. Exit process
    1. Scale out
    2. Full exit
  6. Post trade evaluation

** To verify the completion, we’ll need a daily reversal (today) as well as a new daily GDX low in the following session(s); not advice, not a recommendation.

Summary:

From the trade model, the ‘first correction’ may be completing during this session.

If that’s the case and gold bulls are trapped yet again, this time around, price action’s not likely to be so tenuous.

The bears may be ready to ‘slice and dice’. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Final Test ?

Newmont Edges Higher

Newmont continued to edge higher and posted a 1.09% gain for the session.

The rest of the sector, GDX barely moved at 0.10% gain.

The discrepancy suggests the market continues to thin-out; funds exit the lower caps and are funneled into the only equity that’s above its mid-November highs; NEM.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Newmont: At The Crossroads

Time To Decide

In the markets, sometimes a decision is quick. Sometimes, it takes days or longer.

Back in mid-November, it took eight days above resistance before the market decided enough gold bulls had been trapped; then headed lower.

As we’ll see below, we’re at another decision point.

Newmont (NEM) Daily Close

The un-marked chart gives the impression that Newmont’s headed higher. It even looks like there’s been a test of its breakout above the 58.00 area.

Let’s start marking-up this chart Wyckoff style to see what’s really happening.

For sure, price action has pushed above the 58.00-level.

In so doing, its gone from ‘Spring to Up-thrust’; a potentially bearish (reversal) set-up.

Adding to a bearish view, volume has declined significantly.

However, that’s not all. We’ve got some kind of trendline break with multiple tests as well.

Pulling farther out, we see that trendline has been around for some time.

Getting closer-in on that longer term chart shows the congestion of testing action.

Summary:

Newmont’s got itself into an up-thrust (potential reversal) while testing the underside trendline.

That trendline goes all the way back to late 2019.

Out of thirty-one (31) equities in the GDX, only Newmont’s at its mid-November highs.

All others are lower.

This market’s thinning-out.

Unless the dynamic changes, money is exiting the lower cap equities completely and/or, being pumped into Newmont; a classic bearish harbinger.

Obviously, this can go on for a while.

However, Newmont’s already at the crossroads; Underside test and up-thrust.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Talking Turkey

Lessons From Mr. Partridge

From Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, ‘Turkey’, aka Mr. Partridge, was much older than the rest.

The rumor in the broker’s office was that he was rich.

Even so, he was not contributing to heavy commissions (i.e. day and swing trading) as far as Livermore could tell.

The other thing was, that he never offered advice.

If a stock tip worked out, he would thank the tipster … if not, you never knew if he took a position or not.

Losing The Position & Psychological Impact

Turkey’s ‘losing the position’ remarks impacted Livermore the most. He recognized that Partridge wasn’t some old duffer; he was an astute speculator.

Losing the position: Not the same as holding a loser.

Maintaining a profitable position during a correction while at the same time, recognizing a big move could be in the works, requires (mental) strength; let the market itself say when to get in and out.

This link has Prechter’s ‘missing out’ story on big gains.

Continuing on with Turkey.

In the book, he said he ‘paid a high price for his tuition’ and does not want to incur a second fee.

Attempting to ‘play’ the market in and out then repeat, by definition, leaves one out of the big move.

It’s not the move itself; it’s the recognition that fiddling with the position and losing it, has resulted in a lost opportunity that will never come back.

The psychological damage is immense.

It’s worse than taking major loss. Watching a move take off without you when you had planned for months (or years) for the set-up, may have left no way to recover.

Which brings us to the market at hand.

Gold (GLD):

This site is not advice, and it does not make market ‘calls’.

Presented here, are posts documenting how Wyckoff analysis is being used to spot market set-ups.

Those set-ups have shown themselves over time to be potentially profitable (not advice, not a recommendation).

The weekly chart of gold (GLD) shows the up-thrust that was months in the making.

We’re going to invert the chart and so, the ‘up-thrust’ now becomes a ‘spring’.

Note:

Back in the day, when I wasted time posting on SeekingAlpha, I would get numerous complaints about ‘inverting the chart’.

They wanted it spoon-fed and did not have the mental plasticity to look at situations from the opposite perspective.

The ‘inverting the chart’ came from none other than Dr. Elder, himself … discussed in Trading For A Living or Come Into My Trading Room if memory serves.

The main interest on the ‘Alpha’ site seems to be pontificating about how sharp your pencil is; how close you can come to guess what earnings (or some other meaningless fundamental) will be at the next release.

I have not been back in years … they’re probably out there still arguing … only this time, the banter may be about which “masks” are most effective. 🙂

But I digress.

Months To ‘Spring’, Weeks To ‘Test’:

The inverted chart of GLD shows it took months for price action to penetrate support and create a spring condition.

Since then, we’ve had a move higher and now lower coming back near support.

Is this a test or a failure of the move?

It was a short week. However, it may still provide actionable data. For example, range of GLD, GDX and NEM, all narrowed. Volume contracted as well.

The inference is, thrust energy is weakening and thus weights the probabilities to a ‘test’ and not a ‘failure’.

Deflation Pivot:

Interestingly, we’re starting the see the consumer has finally reached the limit of their spending. Price are staring to edge lower as reported here and here by Economic Ninja.

Another data point, a bit esoteric, is ammunition. Pices are starting to taper off as well. Most notable is 22-LR.

A couple of months ago, 22-LR was about 0.10 per round (bullet). Looking at this site, we see the cheapest price has dropped to .080/round.

That does not look like much but it’s a 20% decline.

Summary:

Everyone has their own time frame and market approach.

Taking a cue from Turkey, referenced above, I would rather sit through a correction, incur the erosion of profit than exit and ‘click my heels’ as Prechter puts it; then watch the original position move for a huge gain without me aboard (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re likely to find out very soon if this is a major pivot lower or if somehow, gold (GLD) bulls gain control and drive prices higher.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Another Gold “Blip”

More ‘Inflation’

Gold Does Nothing

Another ‘maximum inflation‘ story, another non-confirmation in gold.

If that weren’t enough, look who’s out pounding the pavement (again) on inflation.

The press itself, possibly unbeknownst to them, is helping to destroy the (monetary) inflation narrative.

Or at least, revealing we’re actually in the middle of something that’s not quite understood by us in the proletariat.

If monetary inflation really was that rampant (an opinion), gold and other precious metals would be in a screaming bull market … manipulation or not.

That hyper bull market has not and is not happening.

However, what is happening, and what continues to happen, are scenes like thisand this

Let’s move on to the charts.

Newmont (NEM) will be analyzed over the weekend. For now, we’ll use GDX, leveraged inverse fund DUST.

GDX, Inverse DUST (4-Hour)

The first two trade points are clear. The ‘set-up’ and the ‘gut check’.

Whether or not we’re completing the first correction won’t be known until price action at least makes a new daily high, above today’s DUST: 20.45.

The zoom chart below, helps show DUST, is penetrating support … now in spring position.

Obviously, stating the first correction as ‘complete’ was premature.

However, if we are going to see a continued downtrend in GDX and uptrend in DUST, the chart above looks like today’s action is a good area for pivot/reversal.

With today’s screaming 40-year inflation news (first link, above) all gold could do (as of this post) in the futures market, was a meagre 0.43% blip higher.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Next Set-Up: Russell 2000

Do You See It ?

It’s not always what’s happening; it’s also what’s not happening.

‘The curious incident of the dog in the night-time’ … the dog did not bark and so indicated, it knew the killer.

In Steven Van Metre’s Sunday night update (time stamp 5:55), he highlighted that small caps, IWM, (Russell 2000) tracking fund is in a ‘crash pattern’.

We’re going to look at the small caps and see what’s there and what’s not.

Russell 2000 (IWM):

Weekly Chart of IWM

The up-thrust is clear … we can see that.

However, the question is, what’s not happened with this (potential) set-up?

Moving to the daily chart, it shows the up-thrust has not been tested.

There’s no rule that says it has to be.

However, price action shows a spring set-up and retrace in process (below). We also have a Fibonacci target that looks like it might work out.

Moving closer in on the daily.

A retrace to the 62% level, would (could) act as the test of the up-thrust shown on the weekly chart.

That move if it takes place, would create its own up-thrust of the resistance area (below the 62%, level).

On top of that, we may have financial media helping out by getting participants on the wrong side; if so, they’re likely to foment news stories of continued ‘recovery’ or ‘inflation’ moderating … or some such non-sense.

The Media’s Role

In fact, if we get a retrace and the press does not jump on board … I’d be wary of the set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Remember what a good job they did with gold … $3,000/oz, is “imminent”, right?

Gold Down, Market Up?

Is that possible?

For starters, the question is what’s called a ‘mind-trap’. A certain way of thinking that causes one to get boxed-in.

The dollar continues its rally and gold appears to still be inversely correlated. We’ll stay with that as the main indicator of GDX downside potential.

Yesterday, it was thought the up-side correction in GDX, was complete … and that may still hold true. Today’s action looks like a minor test (thus far) of that correction.

Note, at this juncture, heavy-hitter, NEM, has posted out-side-down from yesterday’s price bar … hinting that it’s ready to continue lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Trapped, Again ???

Turn The Screws

Thumbscrew

Having been on the wrong side of major moves numerous times, I have first-hand experience on what’s likely to happen next.

If the bulls are trapped for a second time, those in control, the bears, are going to put the screws to those on the wrong side (not advice, not a recommendation).

It could be a straightforward downward thrust or a slow capital draining grind.

We won’t know how bad it’s going to be (for them) until it’s over; Keeping in mind at all times, anything can happen.

Rule Of Alternation

Yesterday’s update said the following:

“Price action permitting, we’ll discuss how this first correction may be a brief one as opposed to a drawn-out choppy affair.”

Price action in GDX, has posted a new daily low (below last Friday’s low); a potential indication we could be starting the next leg lower.

The basis of that assessment is from a technical discussion published by Robert Prechter, Jr., in the early 2000s (’02, ’03, if memory serves) as ‘the rule of alternation’.

Basically, what happened last time, won’t happen this time.

Senior Miners, GDX

The daily chart shows the eight-day up-thrust, along with current action.

The mark-up makes it clear

It was eight days above resistance battling it out between bulls and bears.

Now, we’ve had one day above resistance (level posted on, 12/7) followed by a new daily low.

Correction Complete ?

The following (DUST-21-01), is the trade sequence currently being used.

Based on the above analysis, we’re going to tentatively call ‘The first correction’ as complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade: DUST-21-01

  1. The Set-Up: Complete
  2. The ‘test’ or ‘gut-check’: Complete
  3. The first ‘correction’: Complete
  4. Continuation or Failure
    1. Trend identification
    2. Potential channel(s)
  5. Exit process
    1. Scale out
    2. Full exit
  6. Post trade evaluation

Looking For The Trend

Next up in the trade sequence, is identification of a trend or trends … if any.

For now, we have the potential channel shown below.

Now comes the part most traders/speculators find difficult; That is, wait.

As Livermore said in Reminiscences, (paraphrasing): ‘It wasn’t the thinking that made me money … it was the waiting’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Natives … Getting Restless

Latest Reversal … Exposes The ‘Experts’

When the tide goes out, that’s when you find out who’s been swimming naked.’

No fan, and no endorsement of Buffett but the quote is applicable.

If yesterday’s Newmont analysis holds, meaning, it’s the last stand before another leg-lower, gold bulls might start acting irrationally.

Is it even possible to be more irrational?

Remember their manic prediction of $3,000/oz, gold in months, not years?

Barring a major reversal, the tide’s going out.

From the comments section of this ZeroHedge article, some in the herd are figuring it out as well.

As one of them says … ‘another year to wait before the Great Pumpkin’ (i.e., gold moving higher).

As this post is created, comments continue to pour-in.

Gold bulls are frustrated, confused, pontificating, crypto loving/hating, central bank blaming, it’s all there.

Thus far, there’s not one comment on what price action is actually doing.

Public Service Announcement

This whole business with the financial media and its attendant hucksters (recent examples, here and here) is actually a fantastic public service.

For anyone who’s still able to think (an act of rebellion in itself), it’s clear, or should be, if you’re on TV, or the mainstream media, you’re a shill until proven otherwise.

The good part?

All of this media, podcast, carpetbagging and corruption, plays right into the hand of Wyckoff analysis.

Wyckoff focused on what is … not what should be.

Even back in the early 1930s, he was adamant about ignoring the financial press. ‘You’ll never be successful’, he said if you listen to the hype.

Mixed Messages

On cue to support that statement, is Dan, from i-Allegedly; he reports ‘we’re getting mixed messages‘ in the economy.

Proving the point.

The (Trade) Plan Forward

With the caveat, anything can happen; gold could rally in a couple hours when the futures open, the short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation), is as follows:

  1. The Set-Up: Complete
  2. The ‘test’ or ‘gut-check’: Complete
  3. The first ‘correction’: On-going
  4. Continuation or Failure
    1. Trend identification
    2. Potential channel(s)
  5. Exit process
    1. Scale out
    2. Full exit
  6. Post trade evaluation

What’s In A Name ?

Even if the trade fails at the next session, it would still provide valuable information.

With that in mind, no matter what happens it’s likely to be referenced in the future; so, it needs a name (or number).

Taking a cue from prior engineering work (creating numbering schemes), the current trade will be identified now, and in future posts, as: DUST-21-01.

Seems straightforward.

The ‘First’ Correction

No. 3, above is titled ‘The first correction’.

This labeling is borrowed from a trade discussed by William Doane, in Dr. Elder’s book: Entries & Exits.

Price action permitting, we’ll discuss how this first correction may be a brief one as opposed to a drawn-out choppy affair.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Before The Open

Is Today The Day ?

Is today the day we find out who’s really in control?

The day where it’s either inflation or deflation?

It’s about 30-minutes before the open.

Pre-market action has gold (GLD), right at the Fibonacci 50% retrace level shown in the 4-Hour chart.

Gold (GLD) 4-Hour

Looking at the chart we see the following:

The up-thrust from November, was an island gap reversal (bearish).

During the Fed announcement (Wednesday, the 15th), price action penetrated weekly lows and set up a spring condition (bullish).

We’re at Fibonacci Day 3, of the spring and current trading at 50% retrace in the pre-market (neutral).

Pre-market trading is at an axis line which also indicated prior resistance on November 30th (bearish).

If price action opens or trades at the 50% level, it would also up-thrust the November 30th print high; therefore, creating a potential reversal condition (bearish).

Summary:

There’s a lot going on in the gold market.

The ‘man on the street’ YouTubers are screaming inflation and the need to “exit the system”.

That’s a great idea (exit). Just exactly how does that work anyway? A topic for another time.

Meanwhile, here we are.

We’re doing what price action’s telling us to do. That is, stay short until proven wrong (not advice, not a recommendation).

That proof, for bulls or bears could come today.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279