The 2021 Top

Empirical data shows market tops tend to occur before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Probably the most famous market top, was September 3rd, 1929.

That top was the Tuesday following the Labor Day weekend.

Now, we have another potential Tuesday top; February 16th. The Tuesday following the President’s Day Weekend.

While shiny object distractions abound; Game Stop (GME) hearings, Silver (SLV) squeeze, Bond (TLT) rout and more, the market may have quietly and without fanfare, put in the highs for the year.

Judging from the internet and YouTube chatter, everyone’s expecting some type of immediate crash.

Well, since everyone’s expecting it, it’s not likely to happen. Or more accurately, not the way anyone expects.

The last meltdown about a year ago was pretty much a straight-down affair. If we’ve seen the highs, what happened last time won’t happen this time.

That leaves at least two options:

  1. Gap down 15% – 30% or more, overnight.
  2. Slow, grinding decline, hardly noticeable until one day …

The chart of SPY below shows a possible Head & Shoulders, top formation. It’s still very early in the chart as even the head of the pattern’s not yet complete.

Nonetheless, it’s important to be ahead of the game and anticipate the next moves of the market.

Note the volume’s tapering off as we get into a possible head formation. If there’s to be a Right Shoulder, a textbook case will have volume fall away even more.

It’s about a half-hour to go before the open. SPY is trading down -0.65% to -0.80%, while TLT is unchanged.

If TLT makes a new daily high above 144.32, it’s a good sign we may have seen the bottom of that market.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

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