Inverse leveraged funds work best during a sustained, directional move. It remains to be seen if DRV was a good selection; not only for a trade vehicle, but for the anticipated collapse in real estate.
What can be said? We can call it lies, misinformation, propaganda but none of those really get to the root.
Input prices are rising not from inflation, but from supply constriction and disruption.
For example, the corporate (big-Ag) food supply chain as reported on many times, is intentionally being destroyed. The result of course, prices go higher.
We’re also in a quiet sun-cycle period that only serves to help with (cold) weather extremes. The only discussion from the media concerning the weather is that’s it’s getting warmer, right? Opposite of reality.
So we’re taking that ‘opposite of reality’ as a contrary indicator.
Whatever inflation we’ve got after nearly twelve years, is probably at or near a peak … ready to head lower.
That includes the market as well. The likely outcome:
Market down, bonds up.
The daily close of long bond TLT, has it in a support zone. One attempt has already been made to position long via TMF (not advice, not a recommendation) as detailed in this report.
Once again this past Friday, another TMF entry.
Both bonds and the markets (i.e. S&P 500) are at opposite extremes. The risk of loss in bonds may have reached its nadir.